The hottest Substack posts right now

according to Hacker News
Category
Noahpinion 20059 implied HN points 17 Mar 24
  1. The concept of comparative advantage means that even in a world where AI outperforms humans in many tasks, humans can still find plentiful, high-paying jobs by focusing on what they do relatively better compared to other tasks.
  2. Wages have historically increased despite automation, suggesting that the job market continuously evolves and diversifies, creating new tasks for humans to perform.
  3. Concerns about AI causing human obsolescence and stagnant wages should be considered in the context of factors like energy constraints and the potential for increased inequality and adjustment challenges in the economy.
Noahpinion 4647 implied HN points 18 Mar 24
  1. Productivity growth is crucial for controlling inflation, maintaining a stable economy, and improving living standards.
  2. To boost productivity growth, a combination of macroeconomic factors like full employment, investment incentives, and stable supply-side conditions is essential.
  3. Three key factors that fostered productivity growth in the 1990s were full employment, high fixed investment, and stable supply with low inflation; replicating these conditions today would require strategic policy interventions.
Astral Codex Ten 2821 implied HN points 18 Mar 24
  1. The 2023 Forecasting Contest winners were determined with an ambiguous scoring criteria, resulting in a few surprise winners
  2. The ACX Grants impact market has received 53 proposals, including projects such as growing blood vessels in the lab and a swarm of robotic bees
  3. A Reddit thread discussing an AI-generated reading of a poem from ACX highlights the speculation around AI involvement in online discussions
thezvi 1785 implied HN points 18 Mar 24
  1. Devin, an AI software engineer, is showcasing impressive abilities such as debugging and building websites autonomously.
  2. The introduction of AI agents like Devin raises concerns about potential risks, such as improper long-term coding considerations and job disruptions.
  3. Using an AI like Devin introduces significant challenges related to safety, reliability, and trust, prompting the need for careful isolation and security measures.
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Concoda 145 implied HN points 19 Mar 24
  1. Bond volatility is decreasing while dollar liquidity remains strong, but future macro events will play a role in its sustainability
  2. Recent changes in the repo market are being discussed to understand how regulations will impact its structure and trades within it
  3. Stay informed with regular updates on money market situations and rates to track financial trends
Construction Physics 13153 implied HN points 13 Mar 24
  1. Mass timber construction is advantageous for tall buildings due to its fire resistance and carbon sequestration, but it may not significantly increase housing construction volume in the US compared to traditional methods.
  2. While mass timber is praised for its safety and environmental benefits, it faces challenges such as higher initial costs and more complex processing steps, making it less competitive than light-framed wood construction in the US.
  3. Canada's experience with mass timber, despite a supportive ecosystem, shows that residential mass timber construction may not see a significant uptick in the US housing market even with continued growth and cost reduction.
Big Technology 6004 implied HN points 15 Mar 24
  1. Gartner predicts a 25% drop in traditional search engine traffic by 2026, with AI chatbots and virtual agents gaining more traction.
  2. The decline in search engine traffic could significantly impact major players like Google and potentially lead to a shift in web navigation towards chatbots and away from traditional search.
  3. The prediction of a decline in search traffic raises questions about the future of web content strategy and the role of individual web pages in the era of AI-driven answer engines.
Alex Ghiculescu's Newsletter 33 implied HN points 19 Mar 24
  1. A 3 Horizons plan is a tool used for strategic planning to align views of the future and inspire big thinking within a company.
  2. The 3 Horizons consist of H1 to protect and grow, H2 for opportunities to capture, and H3 to create the future. Each section focuses on different aspects of company development.
  3. 3 Horizons are not time-bound and should be reviewed annually to update them as the company's vision evolves. Success is measured by whether the plan is actively used in decision-making.
The Intrinsic Perspective 100547 implied HN points 27 Feb 24
  1. Generative AI is overwhelming the internet with low-quality, AI-generated content, polluting searches, pages, and feeds.
  2. Major platforms and media outlets are embracing AI-generated content for profit, contributing to the cultural pollution online.
  3. The rise of AI-generated children's content on platforms like YouTube is concerning, exposing young viewers to synthetic, incoherent videos.
Leading Developers 37 implied HN points 19 Mar 24
  1. Be the go-to person for your manager by taking ownership of important tasks and being proactive in asking for responsibilities.
  2. Become visible outside your team by working on critical projects for the organization, actively participating in Slack channels, and producing helpful content.
  3. When seeking a promotion, be respectful but firm in asking for what you want, setting concrete goals, and taking proactive steps to achieve them.
One Useful Thing 462 implied HN points 18 Mar 24
  1. There are three main GPT-4 class AI models dominating the field currently: GPT-4, Anthropic's Claude 3 Opus, and Google's Gemini Advanced.
  2. These AI models have impressive abilities like being multimodal, allowing them to 'see' images and work across a variety of tasks.
  3. The AI industry lacks clear instructions on how to use these advanced AI models, and users are encouraged to spend time learning to leverage their potential.
Common Sense with Bari Weiss 78 implied HN points 18 Mar 24
  1. SpaceX follows a strategy of learning from failures to achieve success, as seen from their history with Falcon rockets.
  2. SpaceX's Starship program has promising advancements like successful stage separation, in-orbit fuel transfers, and potential for deep space missions.
  3. SpaceX's success and profitability are driven by innovations like reusable rockets and the Starlink satellite constellation, reshaping the space industry.
Noahpinion 15235 implied HN points 09 Mar 24
  1. Consumer sentiment may not always align with economic fundamentals like interest rates or unemployment, showing the influence of 'vibes' and media narratives.
  2. Tokyo and Seoul have a unique city development pattern with gradually sloping density, allowing for more people without feeling crowded, achieved through upzoning suburbs and excellent train systems.
  3. The age of energy abundance is upon us as technologies like solar power and batteries become cheaper, alongside increased fossil fuel drilling in the U.S.
Marcus on AI 1380 implied HN points 16 Mar 24
  1. There seems to be a possible plateau in GPT-4's capability, with no one decisively beating it yet.
  2. Despite challenges, there has been progress in discovering applications and putting GPT-4 type models into practice.
  3. Companies are finding putting Large Language Models into real-world use challenging, with many initial expectations proving unrealistic.
Big Technology 16387 implied HN points 07 Mar 24
  1. Google's open culture deteriorated, impacting its product quality and employee morale.
  2. Issues began when Google shut down discussions on sensitive topics like diversity and employee concerns.
  3. The closure of open channels for questioning within Google led to a negative impact on the company's innovation and decision-making processes.
The Bear Cave 583 implied HN points 17 Mar 24
  1. Activist reports on companies like LPP S.A. and Enfusion Inc. shed light on potential issues affecting their businesses.
  2. Recent resignations of notable executives from companies like Hertz Global Holdings and Turning Point Brands raise questions about leadership stability and financial health.
  3. Interesting reads include SEC charging former Tallgrass Energy board member with insider trading and Senator Josh Hawley calling for DOJ investigation into FICO for anticompetitive practices.
Erdmann Housing Tracker 42 implied HN points 19 Mar 24
  1. Consider using NGDP growth to communicate monetary policy instead of targeting inflation with short term interest rates.
  2. The yield curve's dynamics indicate recessionary signals and potential rate cuts by the Fed.
  3. Economic growth predictions for 2024 suggest low inflation, steady GDP growth, and a possible decrease in target rates by the Fed.
Construction Physics 22131 implied HN points 04 Mar 24
  1. Airports are crucial for global economy, with aviation contributing significantly to GDP.
  2. Building airports is notoriously difficult due to opposition from various interest groups, particularly related to noise concerns.
  3. Despite challenges in airport construction, the aviation industry has managed to adapt and accommodate increased air travel by adding runways, expanding infrastructure, and increasing passenger capacity per plane.
Risk Musings 343 implied HN points 17 Mar 24
  1. It's important to consider the balance between what we can do and what we should do with technology and advancements in society.
  2. Lessons from past experiences, like the unregulated internet explosion, emphasize the importance of having cautious conversations about the benefits and risks of technological progress.
  3. Discussing the 'can versus should' dilemma is crucial when considering the replacement of human labor with AI and robotics, and having a strong risk culture helps navigate these trade-offs effectively.
The Beautiful Mess 662 implied HN points 17 Mar 24
  1. Having firsthand experience is crucial in understanding product concepts, like observing failed launches or successful market fit.
  2. Seeing a team hit dead ends before succeeding can encourage more leeway for experimentation and resilience.
  3. Direct access to customers, effective team dynamics, and confronting false assumptions can greatly impact decision-making and product success.
CalculatedRisk Newsletter 43 implied HN points 19 Mar 24
  1. Homeowners with low interest rates might be hesitant to sell due to higher mortgage rates, impacting the overall housing market.
  2. Rising mortgage rates create a 'lock-in effect,' reducing the probability of home sales and affecting affordability.
  3. The lock-in effect contributes to limited housing supply, increases home prices, and restricts mobility, but is expected to fade over time.
Astral Codex Ten 4336 implied HN points 12 Mar 24
  1. Academic teams are working on fine-tuning AIs for better predictions, competing with the wisdom of crowds.
  2. The use of multiple AI models and aggregating predictions may be as effective as human crowdsourced predictions.
  3. Superforecasters' perspectives on AI risks differ based on the pace of AI advancement, showcasing varied opinions within expert communities.
Alex's Personal Blog 98 implied HN points 18 Mar 24
  1. AI models may need to make deals with publishers to get access to training data, but this can create challenges for startups that can't afford upfront costs.
  2. There's a suggestion to shift payment for data access from upfront to back-end, where AI companies pay a portion of their revenue in return for used data.
  3. There are discussions around the importance of fair compensation for content used by AI models to ensure their continued development and success.
lcamtuf’s thing 2329 implied HN points 13 Mar 24
  1. The focus on product security often overshadows the more critical aspect of enterprise security.
  2. Enterprise security faces challenges like employee actions that can bypass security measures, demonstrating the need for a paradigm shift.
  3. Successful security programs accept the inevitability of compromise and prioritize detection, response, and containment over aiming for perfect defenses.
High Growth Engineer 307 implied HN points 17 Mar 24
  1. Consider the level of detail in crits based on the feedback needed for effective decision-making.
  2. Structure crit meetings with clear expectations, silent reviewing periods, and follow-up synchronous discussions.
  3. Approach feedback in crits by giving and receiving early, focusing on empowering team confidence, and maintaining a positive, collaborative culture.
BIG by Matt Stoller 19710 implied HN points 28 Feb 24
  1. The $25 billion Kroger-Albertsons merger is facing challenges as the Federal Trade Commission and nine states sue to block it due to potential negative impacts on consumer prices and wages.
  2. The case is significant because it involves a novel application of antitrust law, focusing on labor grounds and the impact on union bargaining terms.
  3. The merger's potential consequences, including higher prices and lower wages, have sparked political response from politicians and unions, indicating widespread concern and opposition.
Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality 61 implied HN points 18 Mar 24
  1. Economic transformations involve recognizing opportunities, investing, experiencing euphoria, and dealing with crashes, crises, and adjustments.
  2. In the Biden Administration, there is notable tension between departments like Treasury and the Pentagon, hampering collaboration for economic change.
  3. Understanding collective intelligence and distributed cognition is crucial - global economic challenges require more than individual human capabilities.
BIG by Matt Stoller 34149 implied HN points 21 Feb 24
  1. The Kroger-Albertsons merger faces challenges due to potential criminal activity discovered, leading to antitrust suits and trials to block the deal.
  2. The merger could worsen the grocery market situation with fewer stores, higher prices, and data implications for suppliers, consumers, and workers.
  3. Evidence found of Kroger and Albertsons colluding in wage suppression by avoiding hiring each other's workers, raising concerns and prompting legal action.
BIG by Matt Stoller 29794 implied HN points 22 Feb 24
  1. Capital One is trying to purchase Discover for $35 billion due to a loophole the Federal Reserve left in banking laws, which allows Capital One to have control over pricing in ways its competitors cannot.
  2. The credit card system in the U.S. involves a complex web of fees and intermediaries that result in high costs for merchants, driving the merger between Capital One and Discover in a pursuit for more pricing power.
  3. The merger faces opposition from various groups due to concerns about increased monopolization and reduced competition in the credit card industry, highlighting the need for reforms to promote fair commerce and innovation.
Noahpinion 18882 implied HN points 27 Feb 24
  1. The rise of new technologies like smartphones and social media has presented democracies with a formidable opponent in the form of techno-totalitarian regimes.
  2. China employs a strategy of 'sharp power' to manipulate foreign entities and influence global affairs, utilizing tactics like espionage, social media manipulation, and economic coercion.
  3. China's unique totalitarian approach extends beyond its borders to control the narrative about China, influence the diaspora, and emphasize supremacy of ethnicity over citizenship, posing a new challenge for democracies and liberal principles.
Altered States of Monetary Consciousness 864 implied HN points 15 Mar 24
  1. Addiction can distort our sense of agency, making us act out of instinct rather than choice.
  2. Solutionism creates a narrative that presents our dependencies as voluntary choices, leading to a cycle of justification for those dependencies.
  3. Monetary systems, like addiction, can create a state of involuntary dependence presented as a state of voluntary choice, reshaping our societies and individual lives.
Noahpinion 11588 implied HN points 02 Mar 24
  1. Traditional banks aren't willing to take on the risks associated with financing small real estate development projects due to the complex and risky nature of construction work.
  2. Small developers struggle to access financing from traditional lenders because they lack the track record and financial resources required to secure loans, creating a barrier to entry in the industry.
  3. Institutionalization of real estate development by large firms can lead to a loss of community identity, charm, and personalized building designs, highlighting the importance of supporting small developers in creating unique and vibrant neighborhoods.
Astral Codex Ten 8534 implied HN points 05 Mar 24
  1. The Annual Forecasting Contest on astralcodexten.com involves participants making predictions about various questions, helping to determine if one identifiable genius or aggregated mathematical predictions work best for foreseeing the future.
  2. The winners of the contest were both amateurs and seasoned forecasting veterans, showcasing a mix of skill and luck in predicting outcomes.
  3. Metaculus outperformed prediction markets, superforecasters, and the wisdom of crowds in the contest, suggesting that consistent high performance might be rare but achievable with specific methods like those used by superforecaster Ezra Karger.
awesomekling 504 HN points 16 Mar 24
  1. Using tools like Domato from Google Project Zero can stress test software and reveal potential security issues.
  2. Implementations in software can be prone to issues like null pointer dereferences, especially when assumptions about the DOM structure are not validated.
  3. Finding and fixing bugs, whether real bugs or spec bugs, is essential to improving software stability and ensuring it can handle unexpected inputs.
Am I Stronger Yet? 141 implied HN points 17 Mar 24
  1. Economic models based on comparative advantage may not hold in a future dominated by AI.
  2. The argument that people will always adapt to new jobs due to comparative advantage overlooks issues like lower quality work by humans compared to AI and transactional overhead.
  3. In a world with advanced AI, confident predictions based on past economic principles may not fully apply, raising questions about societal implications and the role of humans.
Big Technology 4753 implied HN points 08 Mar 24
  1. Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI revealed that the company's open promise was more of a ploy for recruitment than a true dedication to open-source.
  2. OpenAI's deal with Microsoft has created a situation where it must balance being close to AGI for profits while keeping its research proprietary, as Musk's lawsuit claims AGI has been reached.
  3. Musk's case against OpenAI showcases his concerns about Google's AI advancements and his efforts to shape the narrative around his relationship with OpenAI.