Astral Codex Ten $10 / month

Astral Codex Ten delves into a wide array of subjects, including the scrutinization of conspiracy theories, expert predictions on global catastrophes, the intersection of transgender health issues with genetics, current events, long COVID research, quirky global occurrences, AI in forecasting, and book reviews. It focuses on critical analysis, scientific skepticism, and forecasting accuracy.

Conspiracy Theories Global Catastrophes Transgender Health Current Events Long COVID Quirky Global Occurrences Artificial Intelligence Forecasting Book Reviews

The hottest Substack posts of Astral Codex Ten

And their main takeaways

Selfish Self-Experimentation

0 implied HN points • 13 Sep 08
  1. Self-experimentation can be for self-improvement or to understand how others might react to treatments.
  2. More people tend to engage in selfish self-experimentation rather than altruistic forms.
  3. In order for self-experimentation to grow, people need to be convinced that it is in their best interest to participate.

Explaining individual variance within species

0 implied HN points • 11 Sep 08
  1. Evolutionary psychology explains both selfish and altruistic behaviors.
  2. Individual differences in behavior may have biological explanations.
  3. Personality is influenced by a combination of nature and nurture.

The wisdom of Ezra Klein: don't read Ezra Klein

0 implied HN points • 10 Sep 08
  1. Most pundits focus too much on the president in political reporting.
  2. Paying too much attention to day-to-day politics is a big analytic mistake.
  3. Engaging in real-time dialectic discussions can yield great results.

Anti-nihilistic effects of "classical" education

0 implied HN points • 08 Sep 08
  1. Teaching classics in school is believed to instill the right moral code in children.
  2. There's a debate on imposing a standardized moral system through education.
  3. Advocating for a more skills-based education system to promote freedom of citizens is a consideration.

What Humans Need to Learn

0 implied HN points • 18 Sep 09
  1. Machine learning algorithms need access to large data sets for proper development.
  2. Prediction making and immediate feedback are essential for effective learning.
  3. A system for learning should be able to break down into components and reintegrate them for efficient design.
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Refreshing Plausibility

0 implied HN points • 17 Sep 09
  1. People find humor in scenarios that are plausible rather than exaggerated
  2. Exaggeration is a common element in humor but plausibility humor goes against this idea
  3. Humor can vary and change over time, much like a sine wave

Implications of Illegal Parking

0 implied HN points • 15 Sep 09
  1. Parking illegally can lead to tickets in most cities.
  2. The concept of making inferences from illegal parking has broader philosophical implications.
  3. The author argues for consistency in enforcing laws based on inferences in various scenarios.

Against Political Moderatism

0 implied HN points • 14 Sep 09
  1. Moderates may contribute to budget crises by making politically expedient decisions.
  2. The term 'moderate' is vague and can have different interpretations.
  3. It's important to be cautious of those who label themselves as moderates without elaborating on what that entails.

Book notes Creativity in Science

0 implied HN points • 12 Sep 09
  1. Creative scientists often tackle a variety of critical questions, displaying scientific versatility.
  2. Highly creative scientists work on multiple independent inquiries simultaneously.
  3. Creativity is positively associated with openness to experience, and a balance is needed between mastering a domain and being mastered by it.

What I've Been Reading

0 implied HN points • 12 Sep 09
  1. Cities of the Plain by Cormac McCarthy offers good quality reading experience despite a less captivating story.
  2. Creativity in Science by Dean Keith Simonton explores scientific creativity using statistics and historical data.
  3. The Illusion of Conscious Will by Daniel Wegner questions the authenticity of decision-making processes and explores the contrived nature of self-awareness.

Expanding Medical Education

0 implied HN points • 11 Sep 09
  1. Richard Cooper advocates for eliminating caps on funded residency positions to expand graduate medical education.
  2. Cooper argues that the belief more specialty physicians lead to worse health outcomes is a misconception based on faulty statistics.
  3. Expanding graduate medical education is crucial to prevent doctor shortages in the future.

Save Your Energy

0 implied HN points • 08 Sep 09
  1. Channel your initial burst of energy into perseverance for when it really counts.
  2. Save your deepest reserves for pivotal moments in your journey.
  3. Don't exhaust yourself early on; conserve your energy for crucial stages.

Probabilistic spiking

0 implied HN points • 07 Sep 09
  1. The brain's microscale processes are likely probabilistic, even if you don't fully embrace the Bayesian framework.
  2. Different types of post synaptic potentials are mediated by different receptors, influencing neural network behavior.
  3. Models seek to adjust parameters during learning to improve predictions in testing phases.

Dreamfullness

0 implied HN points • 02 Sep 08
  1. Daydreams can help us solve problems creatively.
  2. Night dreams may be more negative than our everyday experience.
  3. Dreams, both day and night, can be pragmatic problem-solving tools.

Denervation of neuromuscular junctions in the extensor digitorum longus of aging mice

0 implied HN points • 08 Dec 11
  1. The study observed changes in neuromuscular junctions in the extensor digitorum longus of aging mice.
  2. Denervation was found to increase with age, potentially contributing to muscle function decline.
  3. Differences in denervation trends were noted between muscle types, highlighting variability across tissues in aging.

Against Gameable Legislation

0 implied HN points • 14 Apr 09
  1. Legislation that can be gamed by the private sector will be exploited.
  2. Private companies have taken advantage of obscure tax provisions for financial gain.
  3. Relying on the private sector to follow legislation is like trusting a polar bear not to attack during feeding time.

Humans are...

0 implied HN points • 08 Feb 09
  1. Some suggested Google searches for 'Humans are...' include: Humans are mammals, Humans are omnivores, and Humans are social animals.
  2. Being social animals is a more straightforward explanation for human behavior compared to humans being inherently evil.
  3. It's interesting to see what Google suggests about humans when you start typing 'Humans are...'.

Yawn Contagion Increases With Social Bond

0 implied HN points • 11 Dec 11
  1. Yawn contagion increases with social bonds.
  2. Reading about yawning can make you yawn.
  3. Different social relationships cause varying levels of yawn contagion.

Relatively unmotivated Japanese workers: trend or abberation?

0 implied HN points • 06 Nov 08
  1. Some young Japanese workers prefer easier jobs with less pay over more demanding jobs with better compensation.
  2. The Easterlin Paradox suggests that pursuing higher income may not significantly increase happiness, questioning the value of expending time and energy for it.
  3. The reported behavior of unmotivated Japanese workers is likely an aberration rather than a long-term trend.

Vanishing Employment Since January '07

0 implied HN points • 15 Apr 09
  1. There has been a significant decrease in employment since January 2007.
  2. An interactive graph shows job loss in local regions over the past 26 months.
  3. The situation of job loss is compared to a zombie movie where the problem escalates rapidly.

The Moral Animal book notes

0 implied HN points • 23 Aug 08
  1. Naturalistic fallacy: Just because something is 'natural' does not mean it should be adopted as a moral value.
  2. Watchmaker argument: Darwin's theory of natural selection counters the idea of intelligent design based on complexity.
  3. Human behavior: Evolutionary psychology explains attraction, cheating, and altruistic behaviors in the context of natural selection.

More on the workforce/academia dichotomy

0 implied HN points • 23 Aug 08
  1. The post discusses the workforce/academia dichotomy.
  2. Zbicyclist made valuable comments on 'obligation bankruptcy.'
  3. Connecting theoretical ideas to practical applications is important.

Disease Olympics

0 implied HN points • 24 Dec 11
  1. Disease Olympics refers to diseases competing for funding and attention.
  2. Biomedical research often relies on a false dichotomy when it comes to diseases.
  3. The phrase 'Disease Olympics' highlights the issue of diseases vying for support and recognition.

A primate choice experiment for category-based inference

0 implied HN points • 24 Aug 08
  1. Dopamine is used in reinforcement learning for stimulus value in tasks.
  2. The lateral prefrontal cortex is crucial for context-dependent decision making.
  3. LPFC neurons may accomplish tasks via temporal-difference or model-based learning.

How neuroscience interfaces with evolutionary psychology

0 implied HN points • 25 Aug 08
  1. Evolutionary psychology and neuroscience should collaborate more.
  2. Evolutionary psychology should not overlook similarities with other animals in social behavior studies.
  3. Evolutionary psychologists can improve by addressing criticisms and incorporating molecular genetics and neuroscience.

When is it rational to appear irrational?

0 implied HN points • 08 Nov 08
  1. It can be beneficial to appear irrational in certain situations.
  2. Establishing oneself as unpredictable can sometimes offer protection.
  3. Showing irrational behavior can be strategic in asserting dominance.

Call me the treasurer because I'm in the business of coining

0 implied HN points • 22 Aug 08
  1. Words catch on based on factors like frequency and diversity of users.
  2. When coining a word, unobtrusiveness is key - not too cute or too long.
  3. Brainstorming new words can be fun and intuitive - don't be afraid to try!

Godel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid book notes

0 implied HN points • 21 Aug 08
  1. The book discusses the Epidemes Liar Paradox and the skepticism about AI in the past.
  2. Different decision procedures - bottom-up and top-down - are explained.
  3. The book covers a range of topics related to mathematics, algorithms, AI, and human memory.

Two Tools For The Citizen Scientist

0 implied HN points • 07 Aug 10
  1. A portable electrophysiology toolkit for $110 that can be used to study neuromuscular action potentials in a cockroach's leg.
  2. A microscope attachment for a cell phone with a resolution of 1 micrometer, costing around $10 but not available for another 5 years.
  3. These tools are accessible and affordable for citizen scientists interested in neurobiology research.

Binding potential variability connects to psychological variability

0 implied HN points • 01 Aug 10
  1. PET scans show a relationship between dopamine release and receptors in the brain.
  2. This correlation can impact psychological experiences, like pleasure.
  3. Understanding this mechanism could reveal more about how the brain influences behavior.

The Opportunity Cost of Hard Work

0 implied HN points • 04 May 09
  1. Even with hard work, innate talent can give an advantage in certain tasks.
  2. Not every problem can be solved simply by working harder.
  3. Sometimes it's better to focus on areas where you excel rather than forcing hard work in every aspect.

Trade Off #2: Offense vs. Defense

0 implied HN points • 12 Jul 10
  1. Trade-offs between offense and defense arise when resources are limited and the goal is to win.
  2. Examples include plants deciding between growth and maturation, soccer teams balancing attack and defense, and the impact of testosterone on immunity.
  3. In national politics, war may become more likely when conquest is easier due to the balance between offense and defense.

Obligation bankruptcy

0 implied HN points • 20 Aug 08
  1. The longer you wait to do something, the harder it becomes to start and complete it.
  2. Procrastination can be a result of cognitive dissonance and avoidance.
  3. Naming the phenomenon of procrastination as 'obligation bankruptcy' can help understand and address it.

Correctness bias

0 implied HN points • 10 Aug 08
  1. We often think we're right in disagreements, regardless of evidence.
  2. Evolutionary psychology explains bias but doesn't justify it.
  3. The truth can be uncomfortable to face.

Nonbelief in the implied invisible

0 implied HN points • 07 Aug 08
  1. Listening to sounds in your car can make you believe something is wrong, when often it's just a small issue.
  2. Sometimes, turning off your belief in things that are implied or invisible is crucial, especially for procrastination.
  3. Simple actions like rolling up a car window can solve what initially seems like a big problem.

Individual over group bias

0 implied HN points • 06 Aug 08
  1. Individuals tend to believe they are better than average in various aspects, showing overconfidence bias.
  2. A study showed individuals still favored themselves over the group, whether comparing themselves or others to the group.
  3. The cause of overconfidence may not be narcissism, but rather a failure to compare oneself to a fair population mean.

An application of the conformity theory

0 implied HN points • 03 Aug 08
  1. Ganesha statues are associated with the conformity theory as they are considered cool and attract non-conformists.
  2. Certain phenomena, like Ganesha statues, can straddle both sides of the conformity theory at once.
  3. The appeal of Ganesha statues lies in their uniqueness and cool factor, making them 100% cool until they become widely available.

Why is baseball's All-Star Game so non-random?

0 implied HN points • 30 Jul 08
  1. The American League has won the All-Star Game more frequently since 1965.
  2. There's a notable lack of variance in the outcomes of the All-Star Game over time.
  3. The consistent results raise questions about the randomness of the game.

Negotiation 101

0 implied HN points • 25 Aug 08
  1. Questioning the true intentions of your opponent is a common negotiation tactic.
  2. Instilling doubt in the mind of your opponent can be effective in negotiation.
  3. Using cognitive dissonance to question if the opponent really wants to follow through with their threat is a bold but potentially powerful move.