Bet On It

Bet On It, authored by Caplan and Candor, delves into a range of topics including political policies, economic theories, personal growth strategies, and the complex interplay of society and individual choices. It critically examines the effects of ideologies and practices on both macro and micro levels, encouraging a non-conformist and pragmatic approach towards understanding and navigating the challenges of modern life.

Political Policies Economic Theories Personal Development Societal Trends Educational Systems Media and Content Censorship Market Mechanisms Justice Systems Relationship Advice Career Development Libertarian Views Technology and Society

Top posts of the year

And their main takeaways

Do Ten Times as Much

1132 implied HN points • 13 Jun 23
🚌 Education Learning Effort Parenting Achievement Goals
  1. Success often requires ten times more effort than what is considered normal.
  2. Quality practice matters, but putting in ten times the effort is crucial for fluency in skills or knowledge.
  3. Prioritize your goals and focus on a few, putting in ten times more effort to increase your chances of success.

Woman: A Non-Circular Definition

684 implied HN points • 05 Jul 23
🎭️ Culture Gender Society Ethics Identity Film
  1. The documentary 'What Is a Woman?' is praised for being sublime, humane, and hilarious despite controversy.
  2. Interviewees in the film struggled to define 'woman' in a non-circular way due to their dogmas.
  3. The film challenges views on transgenderism and highlights the complexities and controversies surrounding the topic.

The Justice of Bukele?

674 implied HN points • 12 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Law Justice Authoritarianism Human Rights Corruption
  1. Nayib Bukele's policies in El Salvador have significantly reduced the murder rate, but come at a cost of widespread jailing and lack of fair trials.
  2. The debate on Bukele's justice system involves utilitarian calculations which weigh saving lives against infringing on rights, highlighting moral pluralism.
  3. The emphasis on the importance of trials in a justice system is viewed primarily from an epistemic standpoint, weighing the trade-offs of accuracy and potential errors.
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Self-Hating Signaling

654 implied HN points • 02 Jan 24
🚌 Education Higher Ed
  1. The primary purpose of education is signaling to potential employers.
  2. Elite schools are sacrificing their elitist signaling mission for a secondary mission of charity, diluting the value of their degrees.
  3. U.S. News and World Report's revised ranking formula is obfuscating the trade-off between merit and philanthropy, redefining philanthropy as merit.

Tenure Is a Total Scam

644 implied HN points • 05 Sep 23
🚌 Education Research Teaching Academia
  1. Getting tenure involves a complex process of academic achievements and connections.
  2. Tenured professors have minimal job responsibilities and are difficult to fire.
  3. The tenure system in academia may be sustained by perverse incentives and weak selection pressure.

The Conformity of Silence

568 implied HN points • 13 Feb 24
🏥 Health & Wellness Mental health Social Skills Self-Improvement
  1. Many people struggle to talk to strangers due to conformism and fear of rejection.
  2. Breaking the silence and speaking to others can lead to new friendships, romantic connections, and opportunities.
  3. Embracing non-conformism and engaging with strangers, even in small ways, can lead to positive outcomes and personal growth.

The Noble Truth of the Model Minority

543 implied HN points • 12 Mar 24
🎭️ Culture Society Politics History Race Discrimination
  1. The concept of the model minority myth oversimplifies complex issues of race, class, and discrimination, potentially leading to misunderstandings and neglect of obstacles faced by minority groups
  2. The model minority myth can be a divisive tool, used to either maintain white supremacy or challenge it by showcasing counterexamples
  3. Critics argue that the model minority myth, despite being labeled a 'myth', may hold elements of truth as a socially harmful revelation rather than a complete falsehood

Double-Plus-Ungood: GMU's Orwellian "Just Societies" Mandate

422 implied HN points • 04 Mar 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Education Diversity Free speech Academic Freedom Ideology
  1. The GMU's 'Just Societies' mandate is viewed as a thinly-veiled woke indoctrination requirement that lacks exploration of different views on justice. It focuses heavily on Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) principles.
  2. The requirement assumes the DEI view of justice is correct, overlooking deep controversies and philosophical debates. Alternative perspectives like color-blind meritocracy are dismissed.
  3. Critics argue that the mandate promotes state-sponsored ideological activism, ignores traditional philosophical debates on justice, and signifies leftist indoctrination within academia.

The RCT Agenda

352 implied HN points • 11 Mar 24
🚌 Education Economics Research Science Academia
  1. The book highlights how the randomistas in economics might have a political agenda of serving government rather than challenging it, focusing on randomized controlled trials (RCTs).
  2. Many economists focus on RCTs to measure causal effects of variables, emphasizing laboratory, field, and natural experiments in research, with randomization as the core of experimentation.
  3. Randomistas often avoid engaging in the debate of free markets vs. government, favoring government-centered policies in their research strategies, leading to limited exploration of free-market economics.

Linda the Bank Teller Versus Freedom

261 implied HN points • 19 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Free speech Government Policies
  1. People often fall for the conjunction fallacy, where they choose an option with a lower probability because it seems more logical.
  2. Support for general concepts like free speech can differ drastically from support for specific instances of it.
  3. People often endorse freedom in theory but struggle when faced with specific applications, showing a discrepancy in general versus specific judgments.

Natalism as Non-Conformism

181 implied HN points • 05 Feb 24
🎭️ Culture Parenting Society Faith Social norms Family Dynamics
  1. During historical events like the Great Depression and post-war periods, the birth rates fluctuated unexpectedly.
  2. Social conformity plays a significant role in influencing people's decisions on family size.
  3. Non-conformity can challenge societal norms and promote unique perspectives on family and child-rearing choices.

"Is Capitalism Bankrupt?"

155 implied HN points • 13 Mar 24
📖 Philosophy Ethics Debate
  1. The author received some harsh feedback after a debate on the merits of capitalism, with one viewer calling them a 'self-satisfied, close-minded, pompous, elitist jerk.'
  2. The author admits to smirking during the debate, but explained that the other guests were really funny, possibly explaining their expression.
  3. The full debate video is available for viewing to see the dynamics and humor of the participants.

How "Good and Honest" Is the Media?

145 implied HN points • 23 Feb 24
  1. The author engaged in an adversarial collaboration about the honesty of the media.
  2. They discussed major media stories without looking at the news first.
  3. Through the collaboration, they both shifted their views on the media, with one person feeling they influenced the other more.

Goff on the Cost Disease

140 implied HN points • 02 Feb 24
🚌 Education Economics Healthcare Higher Ed
  1. Prices and expenditures in medical care need to account for quality and income levels
  2. Healthcare services have improved in quality over the years, impacting prices
  3. Education has evolved into a consumption-driven industry with a demand for the 'college experience'

Best Business Thinker?

135 implied HN points • 14 Feb 24
💼 Business Entrepreneurship Investing Finance Management
  1. The post discusses the search for the best business thinker who is intellectually responsible and data literate, with a focus on making money through various mediums like lectures, podcasts, or books.
  2. There is an exploration of finding a voice of reason in the realm of business, investing, finance, and other related fields, seeking individuals who can provide intellectual clarity and resist biases.
  3. The post mentions the question of whether there is a 'LessWrong' equivalent in financial mathematics, business, and career development, pointing out the quest for insightful and reasonable resources in these domains.

Immigration in an Nth-Best World

130 implied HN points • 07 Mar 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Immigration Libertarianism Policy
  1. In a society like ours, that is neither fully libertarian nor totalitarian, libertarians face challenges in deciding which proposals to support in order to promote the freedom philosophy effectively.
  2. Libertarians must address the problems caused by the mixed economy, such as issues related to public property, like parks and buildings, while advocating for privatization.
  3. Supporting open borders aligns with libertarian principles of nonaggression, promotes individual liberty, and is economically sound according to experts like Bryan Caplan.

Out-of-State Tuition Is Out of this World

130 implied HN points • 18 Mar 24
🚌 Education Higher Ed Subsidies
  1. About 75% of American college students attend public schools, yet out-of-state tuition is significantly higher than in-state tuition, with an average ratio of 3:1.
  2. The significant price gap between in-state and out-of-state tuition is primarily due to massive subsidies by state governments for in-state students, making out-of-state tuition competitive rather than monopolistic.
  3. Despite concerns about high college costs, state governments contribute about two-thirds of the total cost for public colleges through various subsidies, making higher education more socialist than commonly perceived.

Walsh on the Judeo-Christian Tradition

125 implied HN points • 21 Feb 24
⛪ Faith & Spirituality Religion Ethics History Lecture
  1. In a six-hour course, George Walsh covers the history and ideas of Judaism and Christianity with erudition and humor.
  2. The Judeo-Christian tradition explores the commonalities, divergences, and origins of these influential religions.
  3. Despite controversies and purges in philosophical circles, George Walsh's lectures from 1989 continue to inspire awe and admiration.

The Unabridged Ridley-Caplan Exchange

120 implied HN points • 05 Mar 24
🚌 Education Debate Innovation Exchange Policy
  1. Innovation often results from small, incremental improvements rather than sudden bursts of inspiration.
  2. Historically, small countries have led the world in innovation, suggesting that population size doesn't guarantee economic success.
  3. Increasing interconnectedness within large populations can enhance innovation more effectively than just striving for population growth.

Appreciating *Casablanca*

120 implied HN points • 26 Feb 24
🎭️ Culture Film Gender Values Character development Patriotism
  1. The film 'Casablanca' presents unrealistic premises that serve as symbolic elements reflecting moral themes, inspiring and edifying viewers.
  2. The movie showcases themes of upward vitality, virtue, and moral growth, particularly in the character arcs of Rick and Laszlo.
  3. The gender dynamics in 'Casablanca' highlight male agency and Americanism, with a focus on male characters embodying higher intelligence and upward vitality, while female characters are often positioned as objects of admiration.

GMU's "Just Societies" + March Events: Nashua, Boston, and AMA

95 implied HN points • 01 Mar 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Education Events Critique Policy
  1. GMU economist shared a first-hand account critiquing the 'Just Societies' course requirement at the university, highlighting issues with DEI promoters.
  2. Upcoming Bet On It events include a Premium Subscriber Ask Me Anything session, the Liberty Forum Experience in Nashua, along with a Boston Meet-Up.
  3. Bryan Caplan's events include discussions on localism, land-use regulation, and his famous 'Build, Baby, Build' keynote talk, showcasing his engagement with current socio-economic topics.

Somin on Conformism: A Reply

85 implied HN points • 27 Feb 24
📖 Philosophy Conformity Tradition Experts Intellectuals
  1. Conforming to majority intellectual trends on certain issues may be a strategic choice to avoid unnecessary conflicts.
  2. While adhering to certain traditions may hold valuable wisdom, being open to questioning and evolving traditions is important.
  3. Balancing deference to experts with critical thinking is crucial, especially in situations where expert views are likely to be reliable.

Next Premium AMA

45 implied HN points • 20 Feb 24
💼 Business Subscription
  1. The next Premium Ask Me Anything (AMA) is scheduled for March 2 at 10:30 PM ET
  2. Participants will receive the Zoom link a couple of days before the event
  3. There is excitement about Kaiju Uncle Sam from a series called Build, Baby, Build, releasing on May 1