Top posts of the year

And their main takeaways

Will AI Cause Massive Deflation?

1493 implied HN points • 02 Feb 24
💰 Finance Economics Technology Central Banking Inflation
  1. There will not be durable deflation in the future unless major changes happen to the dollar or the Federal Reserve.
  2. Technology like AI can lead to deflation by lowering prices, but central banks like the Federal Reserve counteract this by absorbing the deflation.
  3. A special type of bad deflation occurs when dollars are taken out of circulation, often due to events like financial panics, leading to economic challenges.

Does the Economy Need Migrants?

1434 implied HN points • 09 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Immigration Labor Economy Inequality Policy
  1. Immigrants do not necessarily solve labor shortages because they bring their own demand for various services and jobs.
  2. Immigration can lead to lower wages, depending on the skills of the immigrants being admitted into the country.
  3. The argument that immigration is needed to address labor shortages is often contested by voters who see other issues like welfare, crime, and decreasing wages.
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Our "Leaders" have one skill: Breaking Things and Lying about it

1022 implied HN points • 17 Jun 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Government actions
  1. Government leaders are not always honest, especially about economic issues like inflation and the state of the economy.
  2. Policymakers often lie to manipulate public perception and create a false sense of economic stability.
  3. To address dishonesty and mismanagement, consider removing central planners and government control in economic matters.

3 Ways out of our "Fiscal Death Spiral."

707 implied HN points • 08 Jul 23
💰 Finance Debt Inflation Taxation Government spending Economy
  1. There are 3 ways to escape the fiscal crisis: reduce spending, raise taxes heavily, or resort to printing more money.
  2. The increasing debt and interest payments are approaching unsustainable levels, potentially leading to historic inflation rates.
  3. Regardless of the chosen path, the final destination seems to be inflation as the most likely outcome of the fiscal crisis.

Credit Crunch Tsunami Hits Land

668 implied HN points • 22 Apr 23
💰 Finance Loans Mortgages
  1. Credit crunch is hitting various sectors like car loans, housing, and business loans.
  2. Banks are cutting off car loans due to difficulty in getting buyers approved, affecting dealers.
  3. Mortgages are in a critical state with plunging applications, high debt ratios, and increasing defaults.

Fed Pivots to More Hikes, More Pain

648 implied HN points • 10 Jun 23
💰 Finance Economic Policy Monetary Policy Inflation Banking Investing
  1. The Federal Reserve is planning more interest rate hikes and tightening measures, signaling potential economic pain.
  2. Despite initial expectations of a pause in rate hikes due to economic impacts not yet fully realized, Fed Governor Waller is advocating for further hikes to curb inflation.
  3. Quantitative Tightening, the reversal of money printing, may be the next step for the Fed despite past failures, raising concerns of potential economic disruptions and widespread impacts.

Blaming Capitalists and Workers for Inflation

628 implied HN points • 29 Jul 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics Inflation Biden administration Labor Market
  1. Central bankers are blaming capitalists and workers for inflation to divert attention from their own actions.
  2. Corporate profits and worker wages are being scapegoated for causing inflation, but in reality, they are a result of economic uncertainty and money printing.
  3. The evolution from 'greedflation' to 'wageflation' is explained by the Cantillon effect, where trillions of dollars trickle down from government to workers, resulting in lost real wages and potential future economic challenges.

Debt Ceiling Threats Gets Ugly

609 implied HN points • 13 May 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Debt Ceiling Government spending Legislation Economic Impact
  1. Debt ceiling is approaching, and the government is trying to scare voters with extreme consequences like starving schoolchildren and financial market defaults.
  2. Negotiations involve significant spending cuts, particularly from rolling back spending to last year's level and applying a 1% annual cap for the next 10 years.
  3. If government spending reduces by roughly 50%, it could lead to a surplus to pay down debt, suggesting a need to cut unconstitutional and unnecessary programs.