The Bellows

The Bellows, by Ryan Avent, dissects a wide array of socioeconomic and political issues, presenting a critical perspective on economic policies, climate change, social justice, the impacts of technology, and the dynamics of capitalism. It explores how these themes intersect with global events, policy decisions, and societal shifts.

Economic policies Climate change Social justice Technology and society Capitalism and market dynamics Political ideologies Global events Socioeconomic issues

The hottest Substack posts of The Bellows

And their main takeaways

Some personal news...

22 implied HN points • 17 Feb 23
💼 Business Journalism Writing Career
  1. Ryan Avent is leaving The Economist and journalism for a new opportunity.
  2. He is working on a book that relates to themes he has discussed in his newsletter.
  3. Despite leaving journalism, he will not disappear and plans to publish his book within the next couple of years.

What is Trumpism, exactly?

9 implied HN points • 22 Aug 22
  1. Trumpism is about exploiting ethno-nationalism for unity and inspiration.
  2. It's opposed to socialism and liberalism, focusing on nationalist economic pragmatism.
  3. Trumpism centers around a leader who disregards laws and institutions, embodying the nation and ideology.

Suspension of belief

7 implied HN points • 29 Sep 22
  1. The book discusses the influence of economics on shaping history in the long twentieth century.
  2. The author suggests that the focus on economic thinking in this period was different from prior eras, leading to a bureaucratic approach to economic development.
  3. The book raises questions about how beliefs and ideas have impacted major historical developments and the limitations of economic theories in understanding these aspects.

What economists know about climate change

9 implied HN points • 28 Sep 21
  1. Economic thinking has become dominant in policy circles, often overlooking important aspects of problems.
  2. Quantitative economic analyses of climate change may not provide a full understanding of the complex real world.
  3. To address the challenges of climate change, a comprehensive approach involving multiple disciplines is needed, beyond just relying on economic analysis.

The perception of doors

11 implied HN points • 30 Jan 21
  1. Consider the possibilities for economic development and growth across countries.
  2. Question the assumption that society is operating at its full potential.
  3. Explore the importance of collective investments and societal purpose in overcoming economic stagnation.
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Mobs and justice

7 implied HN points • 01 Sep 21
  1. Liberalism is not just about what you can do, but also what you should do for others
  2. Woke mobs on social media have been challenging due process and fostering a chilling atmosphere
  3. Shared values are crucial for a liberal society and building social capacity is essential for progress

That's rich

7 implied HN points • 19 Aug 21
  1. The concept of wealth has evolved over time in relation to industrialization and economic growth.
  2. Savings and investments play a crucial role in economic development and personal financial planning.
  3. Reconsidering traditional ideas about wealth and investing in sustainable, valuable services and resources can lead to a more prosperous and equitable future.

Was coal the low-hanging fruit?

6 implied HN points • 08 Jul 21
  1. The importance of energy consumption in economic growth and technological advancement
  2. The shift towards prioritizing energy efficiency and clean, abundant energy sources
  3. The necessity of increased energy consumption per person for future economic progress and living standards

[loud noises]

6 implied HN points • 17 Jun 21
  1. The world can feel increasingly unintelligible with people's actions becoming incomprehensible.
  2. The Internet can lead to a lack of shared meaning and communication breakdowns.
  3. Online interactions lacking clear guidelines may contribute to increased confusion and incivility in real-world interactions.

Thoughts on the virus

11 implied HN points • 25 Feb 20
  1. Global economy heavily impacted by China's shutdown due to coronavirus outbreak.
  2. The virus, though not exceptionally lethal, can still take a heavy human toll due to its high contagion rate.
  3. Uncertainty in economic and financial sectors due to supply shock and potential global pandemic.

A growing problem

5 implied HN points • 04 Aug 21
  1. The degrowth movement suggests sacrificing economic growth for climate action.
  2. Critics argue that growth is crucial for reducing poverty globally.
  3. There is debate on whether prioritizing economic growth is the most sustainable path forward.

Disco inferno

4 implied HN points • 13 Oct 21
  1. The current economic situation is not a mirror of the 1970s.
  2. Global supply chain disruptions are causing inflation pressures.
  3. Extreme weather events are complicating supply chain issues.

Two quick thoughts about Amazon

4 implied HN points • 14 Sep 21
  1. Amazon has been significantly increasing its workforce, aiming to hire about 125,000 more workers with starting pay at $18 an hour.
  2. Amazon's higher wages may lead to a shift in the broader labor market, impacting industries that rely on low-wage labor.
  3. Amazon's high productivity allows for the payment of higher wages and potentially signals positive effects on inflation and economic development.

On the mongering of crises

4 implied HN points • 12 Aug 21
  1. The past two decades have been challenging, with crises like financial crashes, pandemics, and political unrest.
  2. Progress has brought economic growth, but disparities and climate change remain concerns.
  3. There is a need to reevaluate the challenges faced by liberal societies, as institutions depend on public legitimacy and values.

The stupid society

4 implied HN points • 20 Jul 21
  1. Improvement in sustaining complex cooperation has made society richer.
  2. Market prices and hierarchical institutions play key roles in coordinating collective activity.
  3. Culture, as an informal set of rules, shapes behavior and affects the functioning of markets and institutions.

A Commonwealth of the Americas

3 implied HN points • 15 Oct 21
  1. Migration across America's southern border is influenced by various factors like economic conditions and climate change.
  2. The idea of deepening economic integration across Latin America to create a Commonwealth could offer long-term benefits.
  3. Investing in infrastructure and trade policy changes in Latin America could attract more investments and help mitigate migration challenges.

Science and the stupid society

3 implied HN points • 31 Jul 21
  1. Science is a cultural institution made of people adhering to specific norms and values in certain contexts.
  2. Society's prosperous outcome depends on the complex cooperation enabled by overlapping institutions, including science.
  3. The interaction between science and other cultural institutions influences society's overall outcomes and prosperity.

Cloud city

4 implied HN points • 22 Jan 21
  1. The pandemic accelerated our reliance on the internet for various activities, leading to a shift towards online interactions.
  2. The internet is disrupting traditional ways of living and working, similar to how early industrial cities transformed urban life.
  3. As our lives increasingly move online, there is a growing need for collective action to address the challenges and pathologies of the digital world.

Explaining Warren

6 implied HN points • 21 Jan 20
  1. Elizabeth Warren's candidacy is polarizing, with strong progressive support but objections from many economists.
  2. There is a divide within the elite between those who believe in tweaking the system and those who see a need for fundamental change.
  3. Power dynamics, overlooked by market enthusiasts, are crucial to understanding and addressing societal issues.

From the department of hysterical claims

4 implied HN points • 29 Aug 20
  1. America is at a critical juncture choosing between a white nationalist fascist state or an inclusive democracy.
  2. Republicans have been working to limit the political power of non-whites through various strategies.
  3. Establishment elites tend to dismiss radical claims, but sometimes there is a real threat that needs to be taken seriously.

Treatment of people as ethical animals

2 implied HN points • 09 Sep 21
  1. Research in social sciences may face issues with replication and fraudulence.
  2. Economics often relies on unrealistic assumptions about human behavior.
  3. Heavy reliance on the assumption of self-interest in economics can limit understanding of how people truly make decisions.

The brink

3 implied HN points • 14 Jan 21
  1. American democracy is at risk due to recent events
  2. There is a divide in political ideologies and a lack of accountability
  3. Individuals in positions of power need to take responsibility for the future of the country

American Spirit

4 implied HN points • 18 Apr 20
  1. The idea that market economies operate based on rational self-interest and can lead to a more efficient allocation of resources.
  2. Challenges arise with externalities, where actions benefiting individuals can harm others, and it may require policy interventions to ensure a fair outcome.
  3. There is a complex relationship between ethics and markets, where social trust and ethical behavior are essential for market functioning, but there is a tension between self-interest and ethical rules.

Making the unthinkable thinkable

2 implied HN points • 12 Jul 21
  1. The world felt uncertain during the Second World War with powers challenging the status quo.
  2. China's different approach to capitalism and its growing power present challenges to the existing global order.
  3. Complacency and false triumphalism can lead to dangerous conflicts; demonstrating virtues like an open society is crucial to prevent war.

On the matter of skin-deep socialists

4 implied HN points • 05 Nov 19
  1. Unemployment rate in America is low but the economy is still in a weird place.
  2. Interest in radical economic policy is driven by more than just low joblessness; it's about ending corruption and addressing other societal issues.
  3. Even with low unemployment, major problems like climate change and corporate influence persist, and a socialist overhaul might address some of these issues.

A few thoughts on this moment

3 implied HN points • 18 Jun 20
  1. Elite institutions are predominantly white and need more diversity to avoid perpetuating systemic racism.
  2. Moderation, not censorship, is crucial for elite institutions to curate discussions effectively.
  3. Liberal ideals should be used to end privilege and injustice, not to maintain undeserved status.

The pent-up demand question

2 implied HN points • 13 Feb 21
  1. The level of job recovery in the US depends on fiscal policies and pent-up demand.
  2. The increase in savings doesn't guarantee a significant surge in spending.
  3. Increased spending post-pandemic may face challenges due to changes in consumption habits and capacity constraints.

Apart, together

3 implied HN points • 21 Mar 20
  1. The response to the coronavirus pandemic is faster, bolder, and more urgent than during the global financial crisis.
  2. The current crisis presents new challenges that are unfamiliar, leading to a more radical and diverse range of policy responses.
  3. Addressing the pandemic requires not just clever policies, but also reliance on the strength of social connections and collective responsibility in society.

Difficult times

3 implied HN points • 08 Mar 20
  1. Preparation is key during difficult times, as seen with the rush for supplies like toilet paper and non-perishables.
  2. Taking early and aggressive measures can help contain the spread of a virus and buy valuable time.
  3. The lack of testing and containment efforts in the US could lead to a more serious outbreak with severe consequences.

A new awakening

2 implied HN points • 13 Nov 20
  1. Personal beliefs and perspectives on religion and spirituality can shift over time.
  2. Society relies on shared norms and values to function effectively.
  3. Periods of spiritual awakening often coincide with calls for social reform and ethical realignment.

Two propositions about growth

2 implied HN points • 09 Oct 20
  1. Innovation and growth require developing and applying new knowledge
  2. Economic incentives and tax rates may not be as crucial for innovation as thought
  3. Investing in research, reducing inequality, and ensuring full employment are key for economic growth

The China risk

1 implied HN point • 21 Sep 21
  1. Stocks are being affected by concerns about financial troubles at a Chinese property developer.
  2. There is a risk that China's government may not have complete control over financial markets.
  3. China's political revolution under Xi Jinping could lead to significant economic changes and risks.

The recline of the American empire

2 implied HN points • 16 Feb 20
  1. Discussion about airplane seat reclining brings up societal reflections
  2. Considerations around high-speed rail as an alternative to flying
  3. Critiques on economic factors affecting airline seat comfort and ticket pricing

American myths

2 implied HN points • 06 Feb 20
  1. Traditions are important in societies to shape behavior and constrain the powerful
  2. Respect for tradition and institutions can prevent abuse of power and guide collective action
  3. If traditions no longer serve their purpose in upholding principles, they may need to be challenged

Ok Computer

2 implied HN points • 21 Nov 19
  1. Technological progress can have negative effects on workers if not addressed with social and governmental responses.
  2. The impact of automation on jobs is complex and may not result in immediate job losses.
  3. Concerns about automation should be taken seriously, even if economists have historically underestimated its effects on workers.

The phantom menace

1 implied HN point • 17 Feb 21
  1. Inflation fears are common, but historical context and causal mechanisms should be carefully considered.
  2. Rising inflation in 2021 could be driven by temporary supply constraints and stimulus-fueled demand.
  3. Potential for sustained wage growth depends on significant labor market recovery and structural economic changes.

Money trouble

1 implied HN point • 24 Nov 20
  1. Economists suggest addressing externalities by tweaking incentives, like taxing bad behaviors or subsidizing good ones.
  2. Introducing financial incentives can sometimes crowd out ethical considerations and even make situations worse.
  3. Relying heavily on financial incentives instead of ethical norms may erode society's capacity for altruism and ethical responsibility.

Act up

1 implied HN point • 29 Oct 20
  1. Self-governance doesn't mean the system governs itself
  2. Take inspiration from the founders' initiative in reshaping society
  3. To resolve political issues, public discussion and civic engagement are essential

One billion good Americans

1 implied HN point • 20 Sep 20
  1. The idea of significantly increasing America's population is discussed in the context of national greatness and strategic competition with China.
  2. Consideration is given to the importance of embracing moral values, such as human worth and equality, for America's future influence and global welfare.
  3. Addressing climate change and accommodating population growth are highlighted as critical reasons for making the US more welcoming to immigrants and nurturing human welfare.

The normal course of empire

1 implied HN point • 13 Sep 20
  1. Empires generally fall, and the erosion of civic virtue may play a role in their decline.
  2. Cultivating cultural rules can help align incentives and sustain empires by encouraging collective sacrifice.
  3. Cultural norms can shift over time, impacting state capacities, and potentially leading to the downfall of an empire.