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There are changing probabilities for various geopolitical events like Norway's EU referendum, Crimean Bridge incident, and martial law in Russia.
GeoPredict tracks shifting possibilities such as armed conflicts between India and Pakistan, NATO commitments, and Islamic State attacks in Nigeria.
Speculations include topics like UK rejoining the EU, use of ASAT weapons against satellites, and Putin declaring martial law in Russia.

History's lessons about linking human rights to foreign policy are being forgotten, and relying on realpolitik or friendly dictators for stability often undermines the long-term cause of freedom.
Strong identity and national or religious belonging can strengthen the fight for liberty, and true democracy requires building civil society over time—elections alone do not make democracy.
Technology makes it much easier to mobilize people and spread ideas but also gives authoritarian actors new tools to monitor and control communication; progress toward greater freedom is real but uneven and needs steady support for dissidents and civil society.

Recent U.S. retreat and perceived weakness have encouraged rivals like Russia, China, and Iran to push boundaries, raising the risk of dangerous miscalculation. The next U.S. leader needs to reassert American resolve quickly to deter aggression.
Assad’s brutal repression helped create and strengthen ISIS by driving Sunni recruitment, and U.S. inaction opened a vacuum others filled. The U.S. should more strongly degrade ISIS, back reliable local partners, and consider measures like safe zones or no‑fly zones instead of legitimizing Assad.
Western and generational shifts have eroded support for Israel, amplified by misleading claims about settlements and continued Palestinian incitement. Applying concrete consequences for official incitement and clearer U.S. backing would alter how Europe and Democrats engage with the issue.

Recovering independence meant rebuilding laws and steering a painful shift from a planned economy to a market one. Careful citizenship and language policies were used to protect national identity while preparing to join NATO and the EU.
Russia has used grievances over citizenship and language to pressure the Baltics and has at times made threatening statements. NATO’s Article 5 and stronger deterrence measures, along with defense spending by members, make a direct attack unlikely.
Democracy is a fragile flower that needs constant tending through education, accountable leaders, and practical policies to reduce social tensions. Populism and xenophobia have been fueled by economic insecurity, large migration flows, and social media amplification, but recommitting to democratic values can help the EU and democracies recover.