The Better Letter

The Better Letter explores the intersections of markets, politics, faith, and personal life through a lens that emphasizes long-term thinking, reality-based decision-making, and appreciation for randomness and uncertainty. It critiques short-sightedness, promotes critical thinking, and reflects on societal trends and human behavior.

Investing and Financial Planning Economic and Market Predictions Decision-Making and Cognitive Biases Politics and Society Personal Development and Life Philosophy The Role of Luck and Randomness Faith and Culture

The hottest Substack posts of The Better Letter

And their main takeaways

Prophet Needed

157 implied HN points • 28 Oct 22
  1. The news business needs disrupting and a different kind of prophet is needed to bring change.
  2. In the past, news was more objective and trusted, but today it is driven by profit and polarization.
  3. Finding a true prophet who entertains, questions everyone, and seeks the truth could help establish a uniform set of facts in the news.

The Better Letter: Working Hypothesis

176 implied HN points • 23 Sep 22
  1. The sweep of economic history can be explained by a series of great revolutions starting from pre-history.
  2. After 1870, there was a significant exponential rise in income, GDP, and various societal improvements like increased life expectancy, literacy, and technological advancements.
  3. The development of science, democracy, global markets, and accessibility to truth transformed society and led to sustained economic and technological growth after 1870.

A Collective Statistical Illiteracy

157 implied HN points • 21 Oct 22
  1. We have a collective statistical illiteracy, struggling to understand risks and uncertainties in our complex world.
  2. We are prone to innumeracy, especially struggling with probability and orders of magnitude.
  3. Lotteries can be a losing proposition, and we often struggle with scale, conjunction fallacy, and base-rate fallacy in probability.

The Better Letter: Words to Live By

235 implied HN points • 11 Mar 22
  1. The post shares 50 rules, maxims, and heuristics for truth and understanding.
  2. Wisdom such as 'The Golden Rule' and 'Occam's Razor' provide valuable insights.
  3. The importance of realism, grace, and recognizing what truly matters are highlighted throughout.

The Better Letter: F*** You Money

255 implied HN points • 21 Jan 22
  1. FU money provides freedom to pursue higher quality projects.
  2. Saving early and consistently is crucial for financial independence.
  3. Having personal finance stability can offer peace of mind amidst economic uncertainties.
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October is the Best Month

117 implied HN points • 07 Oct 22
  1. October is a great month with fall vibes and exciting sports events.
  2. Avoiding errors can lead to better outcomes and success in various aspects of life.
  3. Real love is about being present, showing kindness, and avoiding mistakes for a more fulfilling life.

The Better Letter: Say What?! (Part 7)

157 implied HN points • 01 Jul 22
  1. To make better decisions, we need help and outside input to challenge our biases and errors.
  2. Being self-aware and seeking diverse perspectives can improve our decision-making process.
  3. Accountability mechanisms and constructive criticism are essential for avoiding bias and making informed choices.

The Better Letter: Say What?!

176 implied HN points • 20 May 22
  1. Information is now ubiquitous and easily accessible, leading to a shift in how data and conversations are perceived.
  2. Misinformation is prevalent in various forms such as fabricated content, manipulated content, and misleading information.
  3. As humans, we are prone to biases and misinformation, making it challenging to discern the truth.

The Better Letter: Say What?!

157 implied HN points • 03 Jun 22
  1. Listen to others without jumping to outrage in today's polarized climate
  2. Consider your biases and heuristics when evaluating ideas before responding with hostility
  3. Embrace mindsets like integrity, curiosity, empathy, humility, skepticism, and kindness to foster open-mindedness and growth

The Better Letter: Of Mistakes and Monsters

176 implied HN points • 15 Apr 22
  1. Lincoln's Second Inaugural Address is considered the best piece of American writing.
  2. We tend to view our own mistakes with leniency but see our opponents' actions in a harsh light.
  3. Easter signifies overcoming death and the triumph of love.

The Better Letter: Say What?! (Part 8)

137 implied HN points • 08 Jul 22
  1. Making better decisions requires hard work and mental acuity.
  2. Science involves observation, measurement, and experimentation to base conclusions on evidence.
  3. Being open to changing your mind based on evidence is crucial for making reality-based decisions.

The Better Letter: Forecasting Follies

216 implied HN points • 07 Jan 22
  1. Predicting the future is difficult and often inaccurate.
  2. Many forecasts and predictions, especially in economics and markets, have been proven wrong.
  3. Despite the challenges in forecasting, it's important to remain invested in stocks and prepared for uncertainties.

The Better Letter: “Chaos is a friend of mine.”

176 implied HN points • 25 Mar 22
  1. Chaos theory shows that small changes can lead to big outcomes.
  2. Complex systems like financial markets are unpredictable and sensitive to initial conditions.
  3. People's crazy beliefs and behaviors make reality even more unpredictable and opaque.

The Better Letter: A Bit of Hope

157 implied HN points • 06 May 22
  1. Most Americans are friendly, generous, and too busy to tweet, according to recent stats.
  2. Remember to explain policy preferences using universal values, not just religious ones.
  3. Secularists and believers can find common ground in translating concerns into universal values for policy debates.

The Better Letter: The Power of Good

137 implied HN points • 17 Jun 22
  1. Life has always been on the edge, full of emergencies and challenges.
  2. During difficult times, people still pursue knowledge, art, and beauty.
  3. Reflect on the value of learning and beauty even in tough times.

The Better Letter: Say What?!

137 implied HN points • 27 May 22
  1. Critical thinking and science are essential for determining what is real and improving our lives.
  2. Science involves systematic observation, measurement, experimentation, and hypothesis testing.
  3. The scientific method is the best tool we have for navigating through information and understanding the truth, despite its limitations.

The Better Letter: The Culture of Charade

137 implied HN points • 29 Apr 22
  1. Business television often features experts providing scripted and mundane information.
  2. Media personalities use appearances to build their brand, despite the lack of value in the content.
  3. The importance of truth-telling and avoiding the culture of charade in the financial industry and beyond.

The Better Letter: Say What?! (Part 5)

117 implied HN points • 10 Jun 22
  1. Believing we'd recognize the truth is a great mistake.
  2. We often resist changing our minds when faced with contradicting evidence.
  3. We need to actively seek errors in our thinking and be open to changing our views.

The Better Letter: “It’s not you. It’s me.”

137 implied HN points • 18 Mar 22
  1. The classic breakup excuse 'It's not you, it's me' is often used to avoid the real reason the relationship ended.
  2. Sometimes the main issue or problem lies with us, not with others.
  3. In sports, like in life, unrealistic expectations and biases can influence how we perceive our own children versus others.

The Better Letter: So What?!

117 implied HN points • 13 May 22
  1. Being smarter doesn't always help us overcome cognitive difficulties.
  2. Smart people may be more vulnerable to thinking errors.
  3. Behavioral finance theory needs to focus on practical application.

The Better Letter: Equal-Opportunity Extremists

157 implied HN points • 31 Dec 21
  1. We tend to overpredict extreme events and disasters, but they happen less often than we think.
  2. Be skeptical of extreme claims and consider the credibility of the source.
  3. Experts and predictions can be flawed, so focus on data, demand honesty, and admit mistakes.

The Better Letter: Addition by Subtraction

216 implied HN points • 30 Jul 21
  1. Recognize cognitive difficulties and biases that impact decision-making.
  2. Consider subtraction as a valuable approach for improvement.
  3. Focus on eliminating mistakes, making fewer decisions, and building slack into your life.

The Better Letter: People Are Sleeping

117 implied HN points • 22 Apr 22
  1. The film 'Yesterday' explores the concept of success, luck, and the impact of the Beatles on music history.
  2. In a culture dominated by negativity, beauty remains a universal and powerful force that can awaken us.
  3. Finding new music and embracing creativity can be challenging but is essential for growth and innovation.

The Better Letter: The Reality of Sin

117 implied HN points • 08 Apr 22
  1. Belief in the reality of sin suggests limited government is preferred.
  2. Judicial philosophy can shape constitutional interpretation and construction.
  3. Recognizing human nature as sinful supports the need for limited government to prevent abuses of power.

The Better Letter: Great, Right?!

137 implied HN points • 04 Feb 22
  1. The 100th edition of TBL is a significant achievement for the writer.
  2. The success of Febreze came from adding perfume to the formula and changing its marketing approach.
  3. Being aware of our biases and blind spots is crucial to avoiding errors and making better decisions.

The Better Letter: Darwin’s Sweet Spot

176 implied HN points • 03 Sep 21
  1. Decisions are difficult due to the complexity of reality, leading to mistakes.
  2. Misinformation is caused by factors like politics, social media, and lack of context.
  3. Different types of false information exist, such as misinformation, malinformation, and disinformation.

The Better Letter: Comfort and Joy

137 implied HN points • 24 Dec 21
  1. The story discusses the controversy around a football play involving a fake slide by a quarterback and the subsequent rule change by the NCAA.
  2. The article explores the theme of comfort and joy often found in Hallmark Christmas movies and the concept of home and longing associated with the holiday season.
  3. It ends with a reflection on the importance and impact of grace, urging readers to embody grace in interactions to bring peace and positivity into the world.

The Better Letter: Say What?! (Part 6)

78 implied HN points • 24 Jun 22
  1. Making fewer decisions can improve decision-making by reducing error opportunities and decision fatigue.
  2. Developing habits can help automate behaviors for better consistency and efficiency.
  3. Implementing algorithms, checklists, and guidelines can reduce decision noise and improve overall decision-making.

The Better Letter: Let’s Make a Deal

117 implied HN points • 14 Jan 22
  1. Math is incredibly important in our world and will continue to be more so.
  2. The Monty Hall problem demonstrates that switching doors can increase your chances of winning.
  3. Some math problems are so complex that they are virtually unsolvable, like NP-hard problems.

The Better Letter: Rhyming Set to Music

275 implied HN points • 09 Oct 20
  1. Luck plays a significant role in our lives and achievements.
  2. Family background and circumstances greatly impact our opportunities and successes.
  3. Gratitude for the luck, grace, and blessings received in life is key to happiness.

The Better Letter: Carolina Crazy

98 implied HN points • 25 Feb 22
  1. Children see wonder in everything, while adults focus on finding faults in others as they age.
  2. Confirmation bias leads us to hear what we want to hear and overlook the rest.
  3. People often seek information that supports their existing beliefs, creating echo chambers based on bias.

The Better Letter: Insufficient Imagination

117 implied HN points • 03 Dec 21
  1. Sherlock Holmes' approach emphasizes eliminating the impossible to find the truth.
  2. Science involves observing, asking questions, and being open to correction based on evidence.
  3. We are limited by our lack of knowledge, imagination, and biases, and it's crucial to remain open-minded in our pursuit of truth.

The Better Letter: The Relentless Now

117 implied HN points • 12 Nov 21
  1. Long-term thinking is challenging but crucial for success.
  2. Presentism, focusing only on the present, can hinder long-term planning.
  3. Self-control and discipline are key for achieving goals and making better decisions.

The Better Letter: Profound Implications

137 implied HN points • 20 Aug 21
  1. Being adaptable is important for success and can lead to great outcomes.
  2. History shows us that controlling the future is difficult and unpredictable.
  3. It's crucial to pay attention to details and be open to different perspectives.

The Better Letter: Welcome to Extremistan

137 implied HN points • 13 Aug 21
  1. Confirmation bias leads us to hold our own opinions too tightly and be negative towards opposing views.
  2. Seeking the middle ground between extremes, like the golden mean, can lead to better outcomes.
  3. Increasing polarization, fueled by tribalism and media influences, makes finding common ground harder than ever.

The Better Letter: Order of Operations

117 implied HN points • 22 Oct 21
  1. In life, the order in which you address things can lead to very different outcomes.
  2. Focus on multiplication first - the power of compounding choices over time is immense.
  3. Division, especially in politics and social media, should be saved for last, prioritize understanding and listening.

The Better Letter: For What It’s Worth

117 implied HN points • 17 Sep 21
  1. We often see what we expect or desire to see, not always reality.
  2. Humans tend to perceive order in chaos, seeing faces in objects and animals in clouds.
  3. Conspiracies are complex explanations when simpler ones exist; it's essential to think critically and analytically to combat falling for them.

The Better Letter: Eight Simple Rules

98 implied HN points • 26 Nov 21
  1. Parenting is hard, but grandparenting is mostly delightful
  2. Grandparents should love unconditionally, remind their grandchildren how wonderful they are, and be generous with their time
  3. Grandparents should tell stories, have fun, offer wisdom, and bend the rules within reason

The Better Letter: Randomness Rules

117 implied HN points • 16 Jul 21
  1. Random events and luck play a significant role in our lives, often leading to unexpected outcomes.
  2. Sports, investing, and other activities involve a mix of skill and luck, with luck sometimes outweighing skill in short-term results.
  3. Expertise and hard work are important, but luck also plays a crucial role in determining success in various fields.