The Better Letter

The Better Letter explores the intersections of markets, politics, faith, and personal life through a lens that emphasizes long-term thinking, reality-based decision-making, and appreciation for randomness and uncertainty. It critiques short-sightedness, promotes critical thinking, and reflects on societal trends and human behavior.

Investing and Financial Planning Economic and Market Predictions Decision-Making and Cognitive Biases Politics and Society Personal Development and Life Philosophy The Role of Luck and Randomness Faith and Culture

The hottest Substack posts of The Better Letter

And their main takeaways

The Better Letter: Unintended Consequences

78 implied HN points • 17 Dec 21
  1. Every action has consequences that may lead to unexpected outcomes.
  2. Complex systems are prone to catastrophic failures due to unpredictability.
  3. Unintended consequences can result from changes in various aspects of life, from economics to personal choices.

The Better Letter: Math Mandate

98 implied HN points • 27 Aug 21
  1. We are all prone to innumeracy, or the inability to make sense of the numbers that affect our lives.
  2. We struggle with understanding probability, often jumping to conclusions based on limited information.
  3. Dealing with math and probabilities requires recognizing randomness and contingencies, despite our biases and narratives.

The Better Letter: Save Your Fork

78 implied HN points • 19 Nov 21
  1. Being thankful for family and upbringing is important.
  2. Economic forecasts and criticisms can often be inaccurate.
  3. Inflation is a current concern, affecting prices like food and impacting people differently.

The Better Letter: Lucky and Good

78 implied HN points • 05 Nov 21
  1. Luck plays a significant role in success and various outcomes.
  2. The importance of recognizing the balance between skill and luck in endeavors like sports, investing, and life.
  3. The influence of luck, opportunity, and environment on economic success and social mobility.

The Better Letter: Professional Deciders

78 implied HN points • 15 Oct 21
  1. Umpires in baseball face challenges with making accurate calls on pitches and strikes, and have improved with technology and accountability measures.
  2. Umpires strategically allocate attention to make important decisions, leading to fewer errors in high-leverage situations.
  3. MLB umpires strive for consistency and accuracy, but still make a surprising number of mistakes, affecting game outcomes and sparking controversies.
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The Better Letter: Both Sides Now

78 implied HN points • 08 Oct 21
  1. The term 'conservative' has evolved over time, but for some, it still holds true values like recognizing unintended consequences and valuing freedom.
  2. Human nature tends to skew authoritarian, leading to a constant struggle between evil and good that requires a delicate balance.
  3. Both sides of the political spectrum, left and right, can exhibit authoritarian tendencies and are driven by power and control, despite claims of good intentions.

The Better Letter: Crash Protection

78 implied HN points • 24 Sep 21
  1. Market crashes are historically common in September and October.
  2. Automated systems in aircrafts can fail due to a series of small errors.
  3. Predicting market crashes is extremely difficult due to the complex and unpredictable nature of financial markets.

The Better Letter: Mail Call

78 implied HN points • 13 Sep 21
  1. Most doctors are vaccinated against Covid, so it's important to trust them for information on vaccines.
  2. Be cautious of sources spreading misinformation about Covid and vaccines.
  3. Facts can be messy, but looking at the data, like excess death rates, can help understand the true impact of Covid.

The Better Letter: Dating, Marriage, and Values

78 implied HN points • 06 Aug 21
  1. Ivy League women prefer to not date Trump supporters, showing a relationship between political views and relationships.
  2. Shared values are crucial for successful relationships and marriages, helping partners align on important life aspects.
  3. Having common values, whether political, religious, or personal, is essential for strong and lasting marriages, as seen in Hallmark movies.

The Better Letter: Going Big

58 implied HN points • 10 Dec 21
  1. It's often better to aim for average results over extreme ones, especially in investing.
  2. Passive investing, like index funds, is consistently outperforming active strategies.
  3. In various fields, from sports to finance to relationships, there's a trend towards diversification and risk avoidance.

The Better Letter: Up Is the Way Forward

117 implied HN points • 20 Nov 20
  1. The country is facing divisions and challenges due to political polarization and lack of character in leadership.
  2. Choosing kindness and love over anger and conflict is the way forward in addressing societal and political issues.
  3. Listening, understanding, and showing intellectual humility can help bridge the divide and promote unity in a polarized society.

The Better Letter: Risk-Aware

78 implied HN points • 09 Jul 21
  1. The Waffle House Index is an informal metric used by FEMA to understand storm impact and recovery assistance needed.
  2. Understanding risk involves quantifying and analyzing it based on known outcomes and distributions.
  3. Market indicators like the VIX and yield curve can provide insights into stock market volatility and economic growth forecasts.

The Better Letter: Sermonizing

78 implied HN points • 30 Apr 21
  1. Sermons can have a profound impact on individuals and society.
  2. Great preachers use words to inspire and transcend mundane ideas.
  3. Commencement addresses serve as secular sermons, offering valuable life lessons.

The Better Letter: Desperately Wicked

58 implied HN points • 01 Oct 21
  1. The heart is deceitful and desperately wicked, reflected in the presence of evil in the world.
  2. Totally Worth It: Reflecting on Stevie Wonder's 'Songs in the Key of Life' as a significant musical achievement.
  3. Benediction: Offering hope and love as the lasting solution for those who are broken and struggling.

The Better Letter: Creatures of Desire

58 implied HN points • 10 Sep 21
  1. We are creatures of desire more than reason.
  2. Misinformation, malinformation, and disinformation are three kinds of false information.
  3. Mainstream media errors can turn misinformation into disinformation.

The Better Letter: Best Story Wins

39 implied HN points • 04 Mar 22
  1. In the battle of ideas, the best story usually wins.
  2. Good narratives can be more powerful and memorable than statistics alone.
  3. Our brains are wired to respond to compelling stories that reveal meaning and captivate us.

The Better Letter: Dear Future Me

98 implied HN points • 06 Nov 20
  1. Aging can lead to significant cognitive decline and financial vulnerability.
  2. Conflicts regarding mental decline and financial decision-making are common among families with aging members.
  3. It's important for aging individuals to listen to their loved ones for guidance and support in managing potential declines in health and financial decision-making.

The Better Letter: But No Simpler

39 implied HN points • 28 Jan 22
  1. Simplicity is powerful and crucial in various aspects, including sports, science, and philosophy.
  2. The idea of simplicity extends to everyday life, such as being a grandparent, making investment choices, and decluttering.
  3. While simplicity is valuable, it should not sacrifice individuality, innovation, or expertise.

The Better Letter: Always Invert

58 implied HN points • 02 Jul 21
  1. Reflect on the risks and sacrifices made by the American Founders for freedom on Independence Day.
  2. Learn from past tragedies by always questioning assumptions, considering failures, and avoiding groupthink.
  3. Apply the inversion principle in decision-making by thinking backwards, questioning assumptions, and striving to avoid mistakes.

The Better Letter: Always Winter But Never Christmas

78 implied HN points • 04 Dec 20
  1. In this difficult year, many of us feel like we're stuck in winter waiting for Christmas.
  2. An investment guru, David Swensen, had remarkable success by taking a unique approach to investing.
  3. Personal and investment portfolios should have benchmarks for accountability and clarity.

The Better Letter: The Reality Show President Has Been Canceled

78 implied HN points • 13 Nov 20
  1. President-Elect Biden leads by a significant margin in key states like Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
  2. There is little chance of the election results being overturned due to lack of evidence of widespread fraud.
  3. The reality show presidency of Trump seems to be coming to an end with no significant fraud evidence found to challenge the election results.

The Better Letter: TINA

39 implied HN points • 29 Oct 21
  1. The phrase 'There is no alternative' (TINA) originally referred to the belief in a market economy but now reflects the lack of good alternative investment options like equities
  2. Trust is lacking in society today, leading to anger, polarization, and an inability to get things done politically
  3. Listening to understand different viewpoints, practicing intellectual humility, and showing kindness is essential to overcoming bias and improving as individuals

The Better Letter: Every Highway

58 implied HN points • 19 Mar 21
  1. Misheard lyrics are common and known as mondegreens.
  2. Our brains fill in gaps in understanding when what we hear seems ambiguous.
  3. Science can determine what is but not what should be, like moral values.

The Better Letter: Liars of Us All

58 implied HN points • 19 Feb 21
  1. Narratives we believe may not always be true, leading to confirmation bias.
  2. Public bets and predictions often fail to come true, revealing biases and overconfidence.
  3. Our human nature makes us prone to confirmation bias, which can lead us to deceive ourselves.

The Better Letter: Tasty Poison

78 implied HN points • 05 Jun 20
  1. Social media allows us to see what's happening but figuring out what to do is tough.
  2. The revolution is now televised thanks to instant media, exposing reality.
  3. Both major political parties are based on grievances, making some feel politically homeless.

The Better Letter: Shake Things Up

78 implied HN points • 15 May 20
  1. Recognize and address biases, even the ones you don't know about
  2. Diversity is crucial for creativity and success in all aspects of life, including businesses
  3. Make an effort to actively shake up the status quo for personal growth and improvement

The Better Letter: The Tuned Deck

39 implied HN points • 25 Jun 21
  1. Life is prone to bad ideas and decisions
  2. Simpler solutions are often better than complex ones
  3. Resist complexity and aim for simplicity in decision-making

The Better Letter: Graceland

58 implied HN points • 16 Oct 20
  1. Life is hard right now and we could all use a little grace
  2. Grace can be found in unexpected places like Graceland or through spiritual journeys
  3. Extending grace to each other is important, even if it means moving forward without acceptance

The Better Letter: More Grace

39 implied HN points • 11 Jun 21
  1. Having more grace is a good idea in most situations and interactions.
  2. Political fundamentalism can lead to divisiveness and intolerance towards differing viewpoints.
  3. It's important to prioritize values and truths that are beyond votes and political affiliations.

The Better Letter: Plowshares into Swords

39 implied HN points • 14 May 21
  1. Wars between global powers have decreased over the past 75 years due to factors like democracy, trade, and globalization.
  2. There is debate about the idea that humans are becoming less violent over time, with differing opinions from scholars like Steven Pinker and Nassim Taleb.
  3. The rise of China as a global superpower poses a significant threat due to authoritarian practices, human rights violations, and geopolitical ambitions.

The Better Letter: Field of Dreams

39 implied HN points • 23 Apr 21
  1. Late innings of the COVID-19 pandemic, with positive vaccine news.
  2. Grandparenting rules: love unconditionally, have fun, offer wisdom.
  3. Importance of focusing on major threats and not getting distracted.

The Better Letter: Seawright’s Paradox

39 implied HN points • 16 Apr 21
  1. Human decision-making is often flawed, leading to poor choices in various aspects of life.
  2. Human history shows a mix of brilliance and stupidity, with the capacity for both immense progress and immense harm.
  3. Despite inherent flaws, humanity has shown remarkable progress through developments in science, social organization, and the ability to overcome biases.

The Better Letter: The Power of Compounding

39 implied HN points • 02 Apr 21
  1. Start saving and investing early for the power of compounding to work in your favor.
  2. Compound interest is egalitarian and anyone can benefit from it with the right approach.
  3. Even small changes in savings habits can lead to significant financial gains over time.

The Better Letter: Incentives Matter

19 implied HN points • 18 Feb 22
  1. Incentives matter in all aspects of life, from business to government to personal relationships.
  2. Getting incentives to align with desired outcomes is a challenge.
  3. People will try to game incentive systems, so it's important to carefully design them to achieve the right results.

The Better Letter: Statue Contract

39 implied HN points • 26 Feb 21
  1. Fernando Tatis, Jr. signed a historic 14-year, $340 million contract with the San Diego Padres, making him a centerpiece of the team and a potential future legend in baseball.
  2. The San Diego Padres have transformed from a struggling team into a strong contender with a focus on winning, investing in talent, and setting up long-term success.
  3. Tatis, Jr.'s contract, although criticized for leaving money on the table, gives him financial security while retaining huge potential for endorsements, demonstrating a smart financial strategy.

The Better Letter: Nobody Really Knows

58 implied HN points • 29 May 20
  1. Forecasting the future is difficult because nobody really knows what will happen
  2. Humans make bad predictions even with advanced technology and data
  3. Changes after a crisis may not be as significant or long-lasting as we expect

The Better Letter: Markets, Bias, and Incompetence

39 implied HN points • 05 Feb 21
  1. GameStop surge was not a major market story, but a political and media one.
  2. Populist narrative on GameStop is a conspiracy theory without factual basis.
  3. Hedge funds underperformed S&P 500; politicians and media often prioritize attention over truth.

The Better Letter: Nobody Likes Bad News

58 implied HN points • 08 May 20
  1. Science and the law have led to significant advancements in society.
  2. Balancing medical and economic concerns during a crisis is challenging.
  3. Experts play a crucial role in advising on complex issues, even if their recommendations may not always align with personal beliefs.

The Better Letter: Prone to Wander

58 implied HN points • 01 May 20
  1. Human nature remains constant throughout history, with both good and bad traits.
  2. We are easily influenced by biases and tribalism, which can lead to misinformation and trust issues.
  3. Despite advances in science and technology, the core human flaws of overconfidence and confirmation bias still affect our decision-making.

The Better Letter: Punched in the Face

58 implied HN points • 02 Mar 20
  1. Investors face fear daily, especially during market downturns.
  2. Betting against the market can be risky, even for the best short-sellers.
  3. Long-term investors benefit more from staying in the market than trying to time it.