Silver Bulletin

Silver Bulletin provides a nuanced look at contemporary issues including political ideologies, election dynamics, free speech concerns, impact of technology on politics, and COVID-19 policy effects. It explores the complexities of social and political landscapes, often challenging binary narratives around liberalism, conservatism, and media biases.

Political Ideologies Election Analysis Media Analysis Free Speech COVID-19 Policies Technology and Politics Economic Perceptions Social Justice Statistical Analysis Gambling and Risk

The hottest Substack posts of Silver Bulletin

And their main takeaways

Of course Biden's age is a legitimate voter concern

308 implied HN points • 04 Sep 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election Presidency Candidates Aging Health
  1. A large percentage of American adults believe Biden is too old to be effective for another four years.
  2. There is a significant age gap between Biden and Trump, which may impact their health and cognitive abilities in a second term.
  3. Voters are concerned about the age and health of presidential candidates, with notable implications for the upcoming election.

SBSQ #6: People are fleeing California and New York. Will that make other states bluer?

149 implied HN points • 29 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Population trends
  1. People are leaving blue states like California and New York, with factors like lower cost of living and migration to warmer places contributing to the trend.
  2. Migration patterns do not necessarily make states receiving new residents bluer politically, as there are selection effects at play.
  3. Regarding the Super Bowl, it's argued that the 49ers should have kicked instead of taking the ball in overtime, showing the potential impact of strategic decisions in sports.

The 5 types of people who argue on the Internet [SBSQ #5]

169 implied HN points • 31 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Controversies Misinformation
  1. People argue on the internet for various reasons, with different levels of precision and competitiveness.
  2. When making political contributions, it's more effective to donate to downballot candidates, causes, or effective charities, rather than major-party presidential or high-profile races.
  3. Controversies about platforms like Substack raise concerns about the spread of misinformation and the importance of critical thinking among the public.
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RFK Jr. probably won't hurt Biden. He might even help him.

238 implied HN points • 04 Oct 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Analysis Campaign Strategy Polling
  1. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s potential third-party run may not necessarily harm President Biden, and could even benefit him.
  2. Historically, third-party bids have had varied impacts and are not always spoilers in elections.
  3. Polls suggest that Trump supporters view Kennedy more favorably, and his issue positions may not align well with the college-educated Democratic base.

Are these hopeless Republican candidates ever going to quit?

217 implied HN points • 27 Oct 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election Primary Trump
  1. Some hopeless Republican candidates are likely to drop out in the next six weeks, while others may stay longer due to various factors like momentum and media attention.
  2. Anti-Trump Republicans may need to rally behind a single challenger to have a chance, as Trump currently has a strong lead in head-to-head matchups.
  3. Candidates like DeSantis and Haley may be the best options to challenge Trump, but even their chances seem slim based on current polling data.

SBSQ #3: Forget the polls — has Joe Biden been a good president?

147 implied HN points • 30 Nov 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Election Gambling Presidency Cities
  1. Nate Silver believes Joe Biden has been a good president based on bills passed and handling of certain issues.
  2. Nate Silver shares his 7 favorite American cities, including Chicago, Los Angeles, and Miami.
  3. Nate Silver discusses the betting odds for the US Presidential election and whether it's a good bet to buy GOP for the popular vote.

When you pick a VP, you're picking a future presidential nominee

177 implied HN points • 10 Oct 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Presidents Political strategy
  1. When selecting a Vice President, you are essentially choosing a potential future presidential nominee.
  2. The role of Vice President has evolved over time, becoming more visible and influential in shaping future party nominations.
  3. Historically, most Vice Presidents who ran for President after their term were successful in securing their party's nomination.

Does New York City have the world's best food?

191 implied HN points • 02 Sep 23
🍲 Food & Drink Cuisine Restaurants Comparisons Quality Experience
  1. There is a debate about whether the US or France has better food, depending on various factors like effort and definitions.
  2. New York City is praised for its diverse food options, due to its high tolerance for immigration and intense market-based competition.
  3. When comparing food cities, it's important to consider different definitions such as living for restaurant dining, overall food quality, and short visits.

Soft launch of paid subscriptions

180 implied HN points • 11 Sep 23
💼 Business Subscription Newsletter Content Model Revenue
  1. Nate Silver's newsletter will still have mostly free content with some perks for paid subscribers.
  2. Paid subscribers will get exclusive Q&A threads, paywalled posts on various topics, and the option to lock in current pricing.
  3. If Nate Silver stops regularly writing the newsletter, subscribers will have a refund option.

Las Vegas is a good bet for baseball

125 implied HN points • 17 Nov 23
🎾 Sports Baseball Tourism
  1. Las Vegas is a good location for baseball due to its high tourist population that seeks entertainment.
  2. The city has a high sports avidity demonstrated by the interest in various sports leagues.
  3. Las Vegas's compact layout makes it easy for residents and tourists to access the stadium efficiently.

Trump is not inevitable in Iowa

141 implied HN points • 22 Aug 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election Candidates Polls Prediction Markets
  1. Polls in Iowa at this stage aren't very reliable, so Trump's lead may not be as significant as it seems.
  2. Candidates who lead in late-summer Iowa polls don't always win the caucuses, showing the unpredictability of the state.
  3. While Trump is the favorite, history shows that winning Iowa isn't necessary for securing the GOP nomination.

How good will Victor Wembanyama be?

108 implied HN points • 24 Oct 23
🎾 Sports Basketball NBA Players Draft
  1. Victor Wembanyama is predicted to be a superstar based on his preseason performance.
  2. Players like LeBron James and Magic Johnson are compared to Wembanyama due to their hype and impact in their rookie seasons.
  3. There's a historical analysis showing that the majority of hyped rookies similar to Wembanyama have gone on to have successful NBA careers.

NBA Eastern Conference preview

82 implied HN points • 11 Oct 23
🎾 Sports NBA Betting Teams Players
  1. Nate Silver is creating his own NBA Eastern Conference projected standings without the RAPTOR projections this year.
  2. He is considering team dynamics, player injuries, and other factors to come up with his projections.
  3. He shares insights on top teams like the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks, discussing changes and challenges for the upcoming season.

In case Twitter goes to zero

73 implied HN points • 18 Nov 22
  1. Nate Silver created a Substack as a backup in case Twitter disappears.
  2. He is not planning to update the Substack regularly unless Twitter no longer exists or other major changes occur.
  3. Nate Silver views the Substack as a better alternative than other platforms like Mastodon.

Coming soon

19 implied HN points • 18 Nov 22
  1. Nate Silver is launching a newsletter called 'Silver Bulletin'.
  2. The newsletter will cover 'Everything everywhere all at once'.
  3. Stay tuned for the launch at www.natesilver.net.