Silver Bulletin

Silver Bulletin provides a nuanced look at contemporary issues including political ideologies, election dynamics, free speech concerns, impact of technology on politics, and COVID-19 policy effects. It explores the complexities of social and political landscapes, often challenging binary narratives around liberalism, conservatism, and media biases.

Political Ideologies Election Analysis Media Analysis Free Speech COVID-19 Policies Technology and Politics Economic Perceptions Social Justice Statistical Analysis Gambling and Risk

The hottest Substack posts of Silver Bulletin

And their main takeaways

The model exactly predicted the most likely election map

790 implied HN points • 07 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Candidates Political Analysis Voting Trends
  1. The election model predicted the map based on 80,000 simulations, accurately reflecting the most common outcome, though some surprises were noted.
  2. Polling errors tend to be similar across states, meaning if Trump performed poorly in one swing state, he likely did in others, leading to a statistically predictable outcome.
  3. Beneath the overall results, some deep blue states showed unexpected weakness for the Democrats, while some traditionally red states are trending more blue, indicating shifting voter patterns.

SBSQ #16: Nate’s Incomplete Guide to Vegas

273 implied HN points • 26 Dec 24
🏝 Travel Travel tips Food Gambling Destinations Lifestyle
  1. Nate shares tips for young poker players, saying it's harder to start now due to private games and strong competition. He suggests focusing on live cash games rather than online play.
  2. For a Las Vegas trip, he recommends staying at mid-to-upper-tier resorts and exploring good restaurants. He emphasizes understanding the city better before diving into the nightlife.
  3. He advises networking in the poker scene to get better game invites, and to have a side hustle, as it helps maintain a good mindset while playing poker.

The polls are close, but that doesn’t mean the results will be

666 implied HN points • 04 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Candidates Forecasting
  1. Polls show a very tight race, but this doesn't guarantee a close election outcome. Both candidates could end up winning by a larger margin than the polls suggest.
  2. Polling errors can happen in either direction, making the election unpredictable. Even a small error could lead to a surprising result on election day.
  3. The focus should be on battleground states, as those will ultimately determine the winner regardless of national polls. The voting patterns in these key areas could lead to differing results from the national poll averages.

How high will turnout be?

562 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Polls Political Analysis
  1. There is a sale on annual subscriptions, offering a 25% discount for new subscribers in a limited time. It's a great chance to join if you're interested.
  2. On Election Day, there will be a lot of data collection and model updates to predict outcomes. The team will run 80,000 simulations to get the best forecast possible.
  3. The predicted voter turnout is around 155.3 million, slightly lower than the last election, but still high compared to earlier years. How many people actually vote could really influence the results.

SBSQ #14: Election Day lightning round!

507 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polls Forecasting Campaigns Political theory
  1. Election Day tends to be calm since there’s not much to do until results come in. It's a good time to reflect instead of focusing too much on exit polls.
  2. Different prediction models, like FiveThirtyEight's, can have varying odds for candidates which might not reflect the true situation. It's important to pay attention to both polls and the underlying fundamentals.
  3. There are concerns that too many prediction models can lead pollsters to stick closely to common predictions, impacting the variety of polling results we see.
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The early vote doesn't reliably predict results

536 implied HN points • 30 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Polls Political Analysis Election forecasting
  1. Early voting results can be misleading and not represent the final election outcomes. This means you shouldn't take those numbers too seriously.
  2. Different states can show very different patterns in early voting, making it hard to predict actual election results based on early votes alone.
  3. Polling errors can be huge when it comes to early votes, sometimes off by more than 14 points, which is significantly worse than traditional polling standards.

Silver Bulletin pollster ratings 2024 archive

4 implied HN points • 17 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polls Forecasting Analysis
  1. The Silver Bulletin has updated its pollster ratings for the 2024 presidential election, also keeping the old ones for reference. This helps everyone see how reliable different pollsters are.
  2. Not many new polls have come in since the last update, so the overall ratings haven't changed much. The most accurate pollsters from previous years are still at the top.
  3. The 2024 polling data includes some recent elections, but the accuracy of the polls has been similar to past years, with a noticeable bias in some cases. It's important to stay aware of this while following the elections.

It's time for the White House to put up or shut up

1000 implied HN points • 19 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election Presidency Media Interviews
  1. Biden's re-election prospects are diminishing due to poor approval ratings, trailing in polls, and concerns about his age.
  2. The White House may be strategically limiting Biden's public appearances to avoid negative outcomes and protect his image.
  3. Critics suggest Biden should engage in more challenging interviews to prove his mental sharpness and suitability for a second term.

Why liberalism and leftism are increasingly at odds

1339 implied HN points • 12 Dec 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Ideologies Political polarization Free speech Education
  1. Liberalism and leftism are at odds due to differences over Israel and identity politics.
  2. Classical liberalism, rooted in individual rights and free markets, is distinct from socialism and conservatism.
  3. Social Justice Leftism diverges from liberalism in its focus on group identity, totalizing tendencies, and constrained view on free speech.

Democrats are hemorrhaging support with voters of color

507 implied HN points • 15 Mar 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voter Demographics Polling Data Political trends Partisan dynamics
  1. Democrats are losing support with voters of color, particularly among working-class and younger individuals.
  2. Polls and election results are showing significant declines in support for Democrats among Black, Hispanic, and Asian American voters.
  3. The shift towards progressive policies and generational turnover may be contributing to the decline in support for Democrats among voters of color.

Free speech is in trouble

779 implied HN points • 02 Nov 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Youth Liberalism Conservatism Free speech College
  1. Free speech is facing challenges, especially among young liberals who show low tolerance for controversial speech.
  2. College students have varying levels of tolerance for controversial speakers, with notable differences between conservative and liberal viewpoints.
  3. The decline in support for free speech is not limited to elite universities, indicating a broader generational shift.

2024 March Madness predictions

410 implied HN points • 18 Mar 24
🎾 Sports Tournament Predictions College Basketball Analysis
  1. The 2024 March Madness predictions suggest Connecticut is the favorite to repeat as champs, but with only a 23% chance. Other top contenders include Purdue, Arizona, and Houston.
  2. The model used for the predictions is based on a composite of power ratings with adjustments for injuries and travel distance. It also considers preseason rankings to enhance predictive accuracy.
  3. The East region is highlighted as a chalky region with potential for upsets in certain games, like the 7-10 upset pick. The winner from this region will face the winner from the livelier West region in the Final Four.

Biden’s problem is with swing voters, not with his base

418 implied HN points • 02 Mar 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political strategy Voter Behavior Campaigning Partisanship
  1. Democrats should focus on swing voters rather than relying solely on turnout from their base for the 2024 election.
  2. The composition of the electorate has shifted, with Democrats losing their edge on party identification in many polls.
  3. Biden's challenge lies in retaining support from swing voters who are not necessarily loyal to the Democratic base for the upcoming election.

Why the political clock is ticking for TikTok

373 implied HN points • 08 Mar 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Bipartisanship Legislation Social media Political Behavior
  1. Politics is not always a zero-sum game, with some shared interests among legislators. Bipartisanship can arise when faced with common goals.
  2. TikTok is facing legislative challenges in the US due to concerns about its ties to China. There is strong bipartisan support for a bill that could force TikTok to divest from its Chinese parent company.
  3. The TikTok ban issue highlights the complex intersection of politics, misinformation concerns, and generational differences. The bill seems to be gaining momentum due to the lack of a clear political winner and the psychological effect of a common enemy.

Officially announcing On The Edge, my new book

427 implied HN points • 08 Feb 24
📚 Literature Books Authors Genres Narratives Themes
  1. Nate Silver has officially announced his new book 'On The Edge' which delves into the world of gambling, risk, and decision-making, with a focus on the stories of risk-takers and successful gamblers.
  2. The book covers a wide array of topics including poker evolution, human aspects of poker, the commercial gambling industry, sports betting, venture capital, crypto, effective altruism, and the existential risks related to AI and nuclear weapons.
  3. Through in-depth interviews and research, 'On The Edge' offers a thought-provoking exploration of how different risk-takers think, revealing the interconnectedness of subjects like technology, economics, politics, and personal decision-making.

Fine, I'll run a regression analysis. But it won't make you happy.

679 implied HN points • 01 Oct 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics COVID-19 Statistics Vaccination Debate Partisanship
  1. State partisanship and COVID vaccination rates strongly predict COVID death rates even after considering age.
  2. Simplicity in statistical analysis can help in avoiding overfitting models and focusing on robust, true facts.
  3. Vaccination rates are more predictive of COVID death rates than state partisanship once age is controlled for.

Biden isn't losing because of bad economic vibes

345 implied HN points • 12 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy Polling
  1. Biden's low approval ratings are not solely due to negative economic sentiments, but they could be influenced by consumer perceptions.
  2. There is a divergence in consumer confidence surveys which impacts how people view the economy and subsequently rate Biden's performance.
  3. Concerns about Biden's age and fitness for office are significant factors affecting voter perception, potentially more than economic factors.

The White House is betting the election on a theory of skewed polls 🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩

308 implied HN points • 05 Mar 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polls Campaigns White House Media
  1. Democrats have historically not been trailing in presidential race polls until now, leading to a sense of confidence within their campaign officials.
  2. In the current presidential race, Joe Biden is behind in the polls against Trump, hinting at potential challenges ahead.
  3. The White House has shown signs of poll denialism, reacting negatively to polling data that does not align with their expectations.

Nikki Haley's problem is America's problem

290 implied HN points • 06 Mar 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election Conservatism Republican party Joe Biden Donald Trump
  1. Nikki Haley faced challenges in the Republican Party representing broader issues within America.
  2. Haley struggled to gain support from self-described conservative Republicans, highlighting divisions within the party.
  3. The dominance of Trump's strain of conservatism poses significant implications for the Republican Party and American democracy.

Twitter, Elon and the Indigo Blob

510 implied HN points • 31 Jul 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Media Partisanship Twitter Public Discourse
  1. The line between expertise and politics in American media has blurred during the Trump Era.
  2. The Indigo Blob encompasses various institutions and leans left due to its size and demographics.
  3. Twitter has been a key platform for the Indigo Blob, reflecting left-leaning views and contributing to a skewed perception of political preferences.

160 million Americans are eligible to be president. How did we end up with these two dudes again?

358 implied HN points • 06 Nov 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Candidates Polling Demographics
  1. 160 million Americans are eligible to be president, yet we have the same candidates running again.
  2. Trump and Biden are not very popular, with polls showing significant differences when matched against unnamed candidates.
  3. Younger voters seem less interested in Biden, especially due to concerns about his age.

Will the New York Times ever quit Twitter?

325 implied HN points • 05 Oct 23
🕹 Technology Social media Tech Giants Digital Publishing
  1. Nate Silver discusses mixed feelings about Twitter's impact on democracy and tribalism.
  2. Twitter's latest changes, like removing headlines from external link previews, raise questions about its future utility.
  3. The potential consequences if the New York Times, with its high editorial standards, decides to quit Twitter and influence other publishers to follow suit.