QTR’s Fringe Finance

QTR's Fringe Finance critically examines financial, political, and societal issues through a libertarian lens, frequently questioning mainstream narratives around topics like monetary policy, media honesty, and government interventions. It delves into the impact of economic policies, the role of alternative media, and promotes skepticism towards established financial and governmental institutions.

Monetary Policy Media Critique Government Intervention Inflation and Economic Analysis Libertarianism Financial Markets Cryptocurrency Civil Liberties Political Commentary

The hottest Substack posts of QTR’s Fringe Finance

And their main takeaways

Old Crow Janet Yellen's Banking Medicine Show

22 implied HN points • 26 Apr 23
  1. Despite Janet Yellen claiming the banking sector was 'sound,' First Republic's troubles show the pain is just starting.
  2. Yellen's reassurance about the banking system's safety is not holding up in the face of challenges like asset sales at First Republic Bank.
  3. The market response to First Republic Bank's situation indicates ongoing issues despite initial reports of stabilized deposits.

Trading The Shit Show: Portfolio Update 4/17/2023

22 implied HN points • 17 Apr 23
  1. The author shares portfolio updates and thoughts on market trends.
  2. The post is for paid subscribers only, offering insight into key investment themes for the year.
  3. It's mentioned that the year is unfolding as expected in terms of investments.

Central Bank Digital Currencies: A Tyranny Worse Than Prison

23 implied HN points • 29 Mar 23
  1. Mass surveillance through digital technologies can lead to complete control over citizens' behaviors.
  2. Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) could be used as tools for total control in a cashless society.
  3. Resistance to digital currencies and mass surveillance requires critical thinking and decisive action.

President Biden’s Inflation Malarkey

18 implied HN points • 24 Jun 23
  1. President Biden believes in cost-push inflation, but the real cause is monetary policy.
  2. Supply chain problems, corporate profits, and rental prices don't fully explain inflation.
  3. Massive monetary stimulus and government deficits are driving inflation, not the reasons President Biden cites.
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Being Early To Silver Has Been "Painful" But Will Be Worth It: Larry Lepard

16 implied HN points • 31 Jul 23
  1. Larry Lepard believes being early to silver will be worth it despite the pain.
  2. The Fed's extreme tightening may signal weakness and potential instability in the monetary system.
  3. BRICS countries considering a new currency backed by gold could have a significant impact on the market price of gold.

Tension Grows

25 implied HN points • 13 Feb 23
  1. The US is advising citizens to leave Russia immediately.
  2. There have been 4 objects shot down in the last 72 hours.
  3. The economy seems to be on the brink of a serious situation.

The Next Bear Market Shoe Is About To Drop

24 implied HN points • 27 Feb 23
  1. During quantitative easing, the market and the economy can be disconnected, but when rates are raised, they are tethered together.
  2. Investor behavior can be like a dog on a leash, temporarily straying but ultimately following the fundamentals.
  3. The Fed's actions, like raising rates, can have delayed effects on the market, causing a potential bear market rally and a reversion to economic reality.

Something Wicked This Way Comes?

25 implied HN points • 09 Feb 23
  1. The author is paranoid about something and investing accordingly, believing it's better to act early than wait for confirmation.
  2. The author's pessimistic and analytical nature helps them connect dots and anticipate major events when investing.
  3. The post is for paid subscribers, indicating exclusive content for those who subscribe.

AI, Critical Thinking, and the Future of Freedom

13 implied HN points • 25 Sep 23
  1. AI is changing education by allowing students to use tools like ChatGPT for research and writing.
  2. AI may disrupt critical thinking, raising concerns about the future of freedom and independent thinking in society.
  3. As AI becomes more prevalent, individuals may need to cultivate a healthy skepticism towards AI biases to maintain critical thinking skills.

Jerome Powell, Black Swan

23 implied HN points • 08 Mar 23
  1. Jerome Powell suggests that the ultimate rate peak will be higher than expected.
  2. The author dismisses criticisms and is convinced about his viewpoint.
  3. The blog post requires a subscription to access.

The New Cold War Has Begun

29 implied HN points • 28 Nov 22
  1. The New Cold War has begun with geopolitical and economic implications.
  2. China and Russia may pose a threat to the United States.
  3. United States' economic position is precarious due to debt and reliance on imports.

The Final Brick in the Vaccine Efficacy Narrative

21 implied HN points • 11 Apr 23
  1. Two key bricks have fallen from the COVID vaccines' narrative - efficacy against infections and safety.
  2. Booster doses may not provide long-term protection against severe illness and deaths.
  3. Scientific literature questions the independence of protection against severe illness and infections provided by vaccines.

An "Energy Crisis, Wrapped In A Banking Crisis, Engulfed In A Fiscal And Monetary Crisis" Is Coming

20 implied HN points • 25 Apr 23
  1. There is a looming energy crisis affected by factors like oil prices and global balances.
  2. 2023 is predicted to test investors with various crises like inflation, banking, and fiscal, all intertwined with the upcoming energy crisis.
  3. It is expected that the market will face volatility, but having the freedom to lose money might offer opportunities during extreme swings.

Alan Blinder’s Inflationary Incoherence

14 implied HN points • 24 Aug 23
  1. Making incorrect predictions is normal, but refusing to acknowledge them is a problem.
  2. Basic honesty requires owning and correcting mistakes, especially for influential figures.
  3. In the face of contradicting evidence, obstinacy is unacceptable, like in the case of Alan Blinder's inflation views.

"This Is Not 2008, This Is Not Lehman," Says A 40 Year Veteran Trader

22 implied HN points • 16 Mar 23
  1. A 40-year veteran trader believes this is not a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis.
  2. Credit Suisse was saved by the Swiss National Bank with a $54 billion line of credit.
  3. Market fear is rising as bond yields plunge due to panic over potential banking crises.

Modern Monetary Theory Was The Fed's "Colossal Mistake": Lawrence Lepard

20 implied HN points • 20 Apr 23
  1. Lawrence Lepard criticizes Modern Monetary Theory and calls it a mistake by the Fed.
  2. He believes that the Fed is stuck in a cycle of low interest rates and money printing without a way out.
  3. According to Lepard, the Fed's strategy of using QE to generate economic growth is no longer sustainable with the arrival of inflation.

The Fed Is Fighting Panic With Panic

22 implied HN points • 13 Mar 23
  1. The Fed intervened in the market with a new Bank Term Funding Program to prevent collapse.
  2. Physical bank runs occurred, leading to more interventions over the weekend.
  3. There are concerns about endless printed money and the potential impact on inflation.

The Path to Full Stagflation

19 implied HN points • 08 May 23
  1. Elevated inflation and shrinking output may lead to job losses.
  2. Current unemployment rates are near historic lows but may rise rapidly.
  3. Federal data may not fully capture the rising unemployment trends.

July's Rate Hike Poses Real Risk Of "Too Far, Too Fast"

15 implied HN points • 27 Jul 23
  1. Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate in July due to efforts to lower inflation, but there are concerns it may have increased rates too rapidly.
  2. Current inflation rates suggest the real interest rate is higher than before, and estimates show it's significantly above the natural rate of interest.
  3. Transition from loose to tight monetary policy without a clear rule in place can lead to economic instability; the Fed should commit to a specific price stability target.

"A Tsunami of Inflation": One Interview Everyone Should Watch This Sunday

22 implied HN points • 05 Mar 23
  1. The global economic landscape is shifting and the U.S. dollar is at risk as the reserve currency.
  2. There is a case for a coming global monetary reset backed by gold and driven by de-dollarization trends.
  3. Key talking points in the interview include central bank gold, de-dollarization, and the timeline for the reset.

The Speakeasy World Of Covid Lockdowns

23 implied HN points • 08 Feb 23
  1. Lockdown rules were often defied by many, including businesses and individuals.
  2. There was a split in society between the 'New Normal' rule-abiders and the 'Speakeasy World' rule-breakers.
  3. A culture of resistance and rule-breaking emerged, with examples like secret gyms, illegal gatherings, and fake vaccination cards.

Chinese Gold Demand Improved in August

12 implied HN points • 24 Sep 23
  1. Chinese gold demand improved in August on multiple fronts
  2. Gold withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange showed strong wholesale demand
  3. Chinese investors turned to gold due to poor equity market performance and local currency weakness

You Should Be Very Worried About the Digital Services Act

12 implied HN points • 22 Sep 23
  1. The Digital Services Act empowers the European Commission to restrict free speech online
  2. The Act requires online platforms to comply with vague content moderation rules enforced by 'trusted flaggers'
  3. The Act gives the European Commission broad discretionary powers and hefty fines for non-compliance

DeSantis Will Defeat Trump

17 implied HN points • 30 May 23
  1. Author believes DeSantis will defeat Trump in the Republican primary.
  2. The debates between DeSantis and Trump could be crucial for the Republican primary voters.
  3. Speculation on Biden's potential resignation and its impact on the 2024 race.

"Simple Math" Shows "The Fed Is Losing": Lawrence Lepard

19 implied HN points • 19 Apr 23
  1. Lawrence Lepard's investor letter suggests that the Fed is losing control of the markets and credibility.
  2. The Fed's policies in recent years have led to major economic issues, including volatility and inflation.
  3. The Fed's history of mistakes in managing money supply and policies may be leading to unsustainable rate hike policies.

Deutsche Bank Is Now Under Fire

20 implied HN points • 24 Mar 23
  1. Deutsche Bank is facing criticism and volatility in the market.
  2. The mood in the market is uncertain and seems to be leaning towards a downward trend.
  3. Janet Yellen's recent actions have impacted market sentiment.

"The Fun Part" Is About To Start For One Commodity: Harris Kupperman

16 implied HN points • 12 Jun 23
  1. Price is trending higher for a commodity, showing buyers have the upper hand.
  2. Investing based on breakouts is discussed, questioning the rationale behind paying more than the previous price.
  3. Harris Kupperman offers insights on commodities and macro trends, which are considered resourceful.

3 Dividend Stocks I'm Chomping Up

15 implied HN points • 08 Jun 23
  1. The author talks about buying dividend stocks on a recurring basis.
  2. They share three specific dividend stocks they're adding to their portfolio.
  3. The post is for paid subscribers only.

Banks, Panic And Arson: Opportunities Amidst The Q1 Wreckage

18 implied HN points • 30 Mar 23
  1. The post discusses opportunities in the market amidst Q1 wreckage.
  2. Chris DeMuth Jr. shares thoughts on regional banks and potential stock opportunities.
  3. The post emphasizes that all information is opinion only and does not serve as investment recommendations.

This Popular Stock Could Be An Unexpected Land Mine

11 implied HN points • 13 Sep 23
  1. There's a potential investment idea related to a popular stock discussed in the post.
  2. The author emphasizes caution and avoiding this stock at all costs.
  3. The post is exclusive for paid subscribers.

Fed's "Mild Recession" Prediction Will Be As Accurate As Their "Transitory Inflation" One

17 implied HN points • 13 Apr 23
  1. The Fed's prediction of a mild recession may be as accurate as their transitory inflation prediction.
  2. The latest market thoughts by Kenny Polcari highlight that different perspectives on the CPI report can support both bullish and bearish views.
  3. The CPI report showed softer inflation on one side and stubbornly sticky inflation on the other, offering something for both bulls and bears.

Covid Emergency, Climate Emergency: Same Thing

19 implied HN points • 14 Feb 23
  1. If a climate emergency is declared, it could grant the government extensive powers to manage citizens' lives and the economy.
  2. Climate activists advocating for emergency declarations may not fully understand the potential implications, sparking the need for a broader understanding of the issue.
  3. In response to climate change, it's crucial for a coalition of both left and right political elements to seek alternative solutions that preserve democracy, civil liberties, and nature.

Something Cataclysmic Seems Inevitable

19 implied HN points • 07 Feb 23
  1. Something cataclysmic seems inevitable according to investor Harris Kupperman.
  2. Harris Kupperman focuses on using macro trends for stock selection at Praetorian Capital.
  3. Consider concentrated and hyper-aggressive investing styles for maximizing returns.

There's No Way This Everything Bubble Can't Implode When Facing 5% Rates: Mark Spiegel

14 implied HN points • 01 Jun 23
  1. Mark Spiegel predicts an impending market crash if interest rates reach 5% due to the inflated 'everything bubble'.
  2. The current economic indicators, like consumer credit stress and impending student loan repayments, show signs of an imminent recession.
  3. Stock valuations are high and unsustainable, with a potential plunge in prices once interest rates rise, as historical data on inflation and stock prices suggest.

On Businesses with Zero Visibility: Harris Kupperman

12 implied HN points • 13 Jul 23
  1. Businesses with unpredictable earnings can be undervalued by traditional metrics.
  2. Investors often overlook businesses that don't offer quarterly visibility into earnings.
  3. Continuous buybacks or interest from buyers can lead to revaluation of businesses with erratic earnings.

Stay On Target

21 implied HN points • 06 Dec 22
  1. Patience is important in investing.
  2. Passive investing may not always be ideal.
  3. The global reserve currency system could be at risk.