QTR’s Fringe Finance

QTR's Fringe Finance critically examines financial, political, and societal issues through a libertarian lens, frequently questioning mainstream narratives around topics like monetary policy, media honesty, and government interventions. It delves into the impact of economic policies, the role of alternative media, and promotes skepticism towards established financial and governmental institutions.

Monetary Policy Media Critique Government Intervention Inflation and Economic Analysis Libertarianism Financial Markets Cryptocurrency Civil Liberties Political Commentary

The hottest Substack posts of QTR’s Fringe Finance

And their main takeaways

Waypoints

18 implied HN points • 06 Feb 23
  1. Portfolio positioning for 2023 is on the right track
  2. Market is defying expectations, but stay cautious
  3. Favorite investment ideas are being reaffirmed

Time Has Come To "Load Up" On This One Country: Harris Kupperman

12 implied HN points • 22 Jun 23
  1. Harris Kupperman suggests investing in a specific country for potential success.
  2. Harris is the founder of Praetorian Capital and shares insights on macro trends.
  3. Readers are advised to conduct their own research and read the disclaimers in the post.

Massive “Valuation Reappraisal” Lower For Tesla Is Coming: Mark Spiegel

16 implied HN points • 01 Mar 23
  1. Mark Spiegel predicts a significant decrease in Tesla's valuation due to FSD liabilities.
  2. His fund has experienced negative performance but he remains confident in his investment approach.
  3. The major cause of the fund's underperformance is attributed to a rally in speculative stocks like Tesla.

The "New Cold War" Gold Race Is On

19 implied HN points • 08 Dec 22
  1. The global economic order is experiencing a significant shift.
  2. There is a challenge to the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency.
  3. A new cold war between the West and BRICS nations seems imminent.

The Stage For 6% Rates Is Set

16 implied HN points • 17 Feb 23
  1. Macro data shows the Fed's fight against inflation is ongoing
  2. A 40-year market veteran predicts 6% rates could be next
  3. Inflation is increasing, as seen in the rise of supplier prices
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Rates Could Go To 6% And Stay There For "Years"

16 implied HN points • 10 Feb 23
  1. Rates could increase to 6% and remain high for years, causing significant damage to the economy and stock market.
  2. Companies like Micron, Disney, Yahoo, Zoom, Dell, PayPal, Affirm, and Fox Corp are announcing layoffs and suspending bonuses due to economic conditions.
  3. The Fed is hinting at raising rates even higher, possibly reaching 6%, creating uncertainty and impacting market dynamics.

Will Real Estate Ever Crash Again?

15 implied HN points • 06 Mar 23
  1. Author questions if the housing market will crash again
  2. Stock market has been resilient despite signs of slowing economy
  3. Author reflects on his financial predictions over the last 14 months

Shipping Expert J Mintzmyer Shares His Top 3 Stocks

11 implied HN points • 26 Jun 23
  1. Shipping expert J Mintzmyer shares his top 3 stocks.
  2. J Mintzmyer compiles a list of his top public ideas every six months.
  3. His picks span different segments in the shipping industry: dry bulk, tankers, and containerships.

Waypoints

14 implied HN points • 28 Mar 23
  1. The author expects market volatility due to rate hikes and geopolitical factors.
  2. The author has chosen 23 stocks based on their thesis for the year.
  3. Updates and additional insights are shared with paid subscribers.

Housing Demand "Vaporized" After Rates Hit 7%...And A New Wave Of Inventory Is Next

18 implied HN points • 30 Nov 22
  1. Housing demand sharply decreased after interest rates surpassed 5.5% in June.
  2. The housing market experienced a decline in inventory as rates exceeded 7%, leading to a potential increase in inventory in Q1 and Q2 of 2023.
  3. Buyer behavior shifted dramatically due to high interest rates and overvalued real estate, causing a significant drop in transaction volume in Philadelphia.

U.S. Pension Funds Could Be About To Implode

20 implied HN points • 30 Sep 22
  1. US pension funds may face a crisis due to financial instability
  2. The Federal Reserve's current policy could lead to a significant stock market crash
  3. Global economic conditions may trigger a collapse in US markets

Did The Global Pivot Back To QE Just Begin?

20 implied HN points • 29 Sep 22
  1. The Bank of England has re-started QE, raising questions about the Fed's next move.
  2. The global economic landscape shifted on Wednesday, potentially impacting asset classes.
  3. Discussions on potential impacts to equity markets and attractive assets are ongoing.

Three Names I'm Buying Despite The Market Being Overvalued

14 implied HN points • 22 Feb 23
  1. The market is overvalued, but I'm buying three specific names as investments.
  2. The author sees these names as values and hedges against geopolitical uncertainty.
  3. This is not a direct recommendation to buy, and the author acknowledges being fallible.

The Trend Is Still Your Friend: Harris Kupperman

10 implied HN points • 28 Jun 23
  1. Harris Kupperman shares insights on a commodity poised for a breakout.
  2. He is the founder of Praetorian Capital and Adventures in Capitalism.
  3. The post is exclusive for paid subscribers.

Waiting To Pounce

19 implied HN points • 03 Oct 22
  1. Investor Chris DeMuth Jr shared his best long and short ideas.
  2. He invests in mispriced securities and corporate events that unlock shareholder value.
  3. He stays focused in three categories on the long side with a single favorite in each, to navigate the expensive market.

A Fed Pivot Is Not Happening In 2023

13 implied HN points • 15 Feb 23
  1. Traders betting on 6% rates by September
  2. The bond market indicates inflation isn't temporary
  3. Consumer Price Index is hot and cool, with some interesting readings

Two Stocks I Own Specifically To Outperform During Inflation: Harris Kupperman

8 implied HN points • 10 Aug 23
  1. To outperform during inflation, consider buying businesses with strong inflationary pricing power.
  2. Warren Buffett advises buying companies with high returns on capital and pricing power to prosper during inflation.
  3. For dramatic outperformance during inflation, consider what you want to own beyond just surviving.

The Fed Will Soon Raise Their 2% Inflation Target

12 implied HN points • 09 Mar 23
  1. The Fed is expected to raise their 2% inflation target.
  2. Kenny Polcari believes a recession is guaranteed.
  3. There is uncertainty about the Fed's decision on rate increases and concern about the possibility of a recession.

It's Starting To "Reek" Of A Cold War

12 implied HN points • 07 Mar 23
  1. Growing tension between the U.S. and China is escalating.
  2. The author predicts that China may take Taiwan before November 2024.
  3. Geopolitical tensions pose risks to U.S. listed China-based equities.

3 ESG Stock Picks From A Self Proclaimed ESG Skeptic

8 implied HN points • 09 Jul 23
  1. Invest in what's legal and analyzable with positive expected value
  2. Good corporate governance is crucial for investment success
  3. Maximize wealth or shareholder value first, then pursue philanthropic goals

Yesterday's Rally "Not What Powell Wanted", Terminal Rates Could Still Approach 7%

13 implied HN points • 01 Dec 22
  1. Powell's speech indicated that rate increases would slow in December but continue to rise, aiming for a 'soft landing'.
  2. The market reacted positively to Powell's speech, with algorithms responding to the indication of rates not being overtightened.
  3. Kenny Polcari, a market veteran, shared insights on the market's reaction to Powell's speech and predicted possible terminal rates around 7%.

The Fed Is In No Rush To Cut Rates

10 implied HN points • 23 Feb 23
  1. The Fed is not in a hurry to cut rates.
  2. Market volatility might continue until there's economic stability.
  3. FOMC minutes show rates are expected to rise and stay up longer.

Bitcoin: One Hubris-Laden Interview Closer To A Day Of Reckoning

9 implied HN points • 22 Nov 21
  1. The Bitcoin bull case is filled with past performance stats, questionable comparisons to gold, and logical fallacies.
  2. Bitcoin advocate Alex Mashinsky made misleading claims about bitcoin and gold during a debate.
  3. Mashinsky's debate tactics included ad hominem attacks, irresponsible financial suggestions, and overlooking key risks associated with bitcoin.

Covid Is Over (If You Want It)

8 implied HN points • 19 Nov 21
  1. This holiday season, let's focus on peace, freedom, and what's truly important.
  2. Take a break from the media and the psychological burden of the pandemic.
  3. Consider embracing tradition, exhaling, and enjoying the holidays as normally as possible.

Ending Social Media Censorship And The Meteoric Rise of Substack

9 implied HN points • 29 Aug 21
  1. The author moved their content to Substack due to concerns about social media censorship.
  2. Alex Berenson's ban from Twitter prompted the author to transition to Substack.
  3. The author's new column 'Fringe Finance' is now hosted on Substack.

Staring Down The Barrel of A NASDAQ Crash Without Knowing It

8 implied HN points • 01 Nov 21
  1. The current tech bubble might be larger and more dangerous than the one in 1999.
  2. Distractions and lack of attention could prevent us from realizing the severity of the situation in the stock market.
  3. Various potential catalysts, like rising rates or unexpected events, could lead to a market crash.

Black Friday Bedlam: Markets Thrashed On New Covid Variant Fears

7 implied HN points • 26 Nov 21
  1. Markets are reacting negatively to news about a new Covid variant from South Africa
  2. Government responses to the new variant could impact economic policies like tapering and stimulus checks
  3. Potential implications include impacts on travel stocks, gold prices, and pharmaceutical companies

The Freaks Who Read My Blog And 9 Other Things I'm Thankful For This Year

7 implied HN points • 25 Nov 21
  1. The author is thankful for the readers and subscribers of the blog.
  2. There are 9 other things the author is grateful for this year, including personal reflections and current events.
  3. The author ends the post by sharing NFL picks and sending well-wishes to the readers' families.

"The Fed Can't Prop It Up Forever": Rangeley Capital's Chris DeMuth

6 implied HN points • 08 Dec 21
  1. An exclusive interview with Chris DeMuth, Jr., founder of Rangeley Capital.
  2. Rangeley Capital's strategy is to invest in mispriced securities and corporate events.
  3. Chris DeMuth believes that the Federal Reserve cannot indefinitely support the market.