The Seneca Effect

The Seneca Effect explores the theme of collapse across various systems, from empires to science, emphasizing the rapidity of such collapses once a tipping point is reached. It discusses the role of modern societal, scientific, and environmental issues in potentially accelerating these collapses and reflects on historical patterns to suggest future directions.

Collapse of Complex Systems Stagnation in Science Normalization of Evil Censorship and Free Speech Decline of Empires Environmental and Ecosystem Health Financial and Social Inequality Propaganda and Societal Dementia Future Wars and Conflicts Renewable Energy Transition Political Leadership and Image Cultural and Civilizational Analysis

The hottest Substack posts of The Seneca Effect

And their main takeaways

The Worst Model in History: How the Curve was not Flattened

78 implied HN points • 26 Mar 23
  1. Some models can be wrong, but they can be misleading or dangerous when believed and followed blindly. Models have played a significant role in human decision-making throughout history.
  2. The 'Flattening the Curve' model during the Covid-19 epidemic had significant flaws, including unrealistic assumptions and lack of ability to verify recommended actions' effectiveness.
  3. Climate models, while not immune to errors, are based on quantitative data and provide a tool to evaluate interventions. Mistakes made in applying models to manage climate change must be avoided by staying open to new data and adjusting models accordingly.

Fighting Shadow-Banning. The Seneca Blog Lands on Substack

78 implied HN points • 23 Mar 23
  1. Shadow-banning is a method to make online content invisible by manipulating search results, leading to decreased visibility and audience engagement.
  2. Changing platforms or site names may help circumvent shadow-banning, as seen with the Seneca Blog moving to Substack to potentially avoid censorship.
  3. Seeking reader support through platforms like Substack that rely on monetary contributions from readers can be a way to sustain independent content creation.

The Suicide of the Valkyrie. The Story of Adolf Hitler's British Lover

19 implied HN points • 09 Sep 23
  1. Unity Mitford, a British aristocrat, played a complex role as a spy and lover to Adolf Hitler during the 1930s and early 1940s.
  2. The story reveals how the British and German secret services used Mitford to manipulate Hitler, possibly leading to his ill-fated decision to attack the Soviet Union.
  3. The narrative sheds light on the power of ideology, propaganda, and personal beliefs in influencing historical events, showing the dangers of turning fantasies into reality.

The Dark Face of Degrowth: Argentine's President, Javier Milei

3 HN points • 03 Jan 24
  1. The concept of degrowth can have multiple interpretations, and in some cases, it may take on a darker tone, like the extreme policies and rhetoric demonstrated by Argentine's President, Javier Milei.
  2. Political responses to societal challenges, such as the healthcare system, often involve solutions that worsen the original problems, like increased bureaucracy or service cuts.
  3. Complex systems, including governments, require energy and resources to function; when these become scarce, a cascading decline can occur, potentially leading to collapse or worsening conditions.

The Most Amazing Graph of the 21st Century: How the Empire is Striking Back!

19 implied HN points • 27 Nov 22
  1. The US oil production experienced an amazing rebound, making the country the world's largest producer of crude oil again, and becoming more influential geopolitically.
  2. Investing in tight oil extraction, like shale oil, may not always be economically profitable, but it plays a crucial role in sustaining various sectors of the US economy.
  3. The American Empire is making a comeback in the energy market, impacting international relations and potentially reshaping power dynamics, with energy playing a critical role in conflicts and geopolitics.
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Are the Evil Gods Returning? Or is Evil is Inside us?

0 implied HN points • 12 Mar 23
  1. Evil is a part of human nature, it comes from within us, not external forces.
  2. History shows that ordinary people can be manipulated by propaganda to commit acts of evil against others.
  3. The rise of evil often stems from self-reinforcing cycles fueled by media, leading to quick growth and eventual collapse.

Those Pesky Savanna Monkeys and Their Dreams of Golden Hydrogen

0 implied HN points • 04 Mar 23
  1. Natural hydrogen may not be a viable economic resource due to insufficient concentration in the Earth's crust.
  2. Exploiting underground hydrogen deposits faces challenges like lack of infrastructure and unknown extraction feasibility.
  3. The enthusiasm around natural hydrogen as a clean energy source may be likened to a fantasy of finding an easy solution without necessary changes or sacrifices.

The Return of Oracles. A New Epistemic Revolution is Coming

0 implied HN points • 27 Feb 23
  1. Epistemic systems evolve over time: from Paganism with oracles to Christianity, then to science, and eventually to propaganda and chatbots in the current digital era.
  2. Oracles, like modern AI-based chatbots, provide a unique way to seek and provide information, potentially influencing knowledge and beliefs.
  3. The control of information flow is a key aspect in epistemic revolutions, impacting how societies perceive truth, power dynamics, and the evolution of communication tools.

TEOCAWKT: The end of cars as we know them?

0 implied HN points • 19 Feb 23
  1. People may not like change, but changes in the car industry are happening due to resource crises, leading to higher prices and a decrease in car affordability.
  2. The shift in car market trends shows a reversal where cars are becoming more expensive and less accessible, impacting people's ability to afford and own cars.
  3. A potential future involves reorganizing transportation with lighter, more efficient vehicles to adapt to a world with scarce resources, while resisting the urge to cling to outdated models.

How to Create your own Shadow Government: why Worshiping Baphomet could be a Good Idea

0 implied HN points • 29 Jan 23
  1. Creating a shadow government involves operating from the shadows to avoid accountability and execute questionable actions without constraint.
  2. Historical examples like the Knights Templar reveal the mechanisms of a hidden organization: a front, a carrot to entice new members, a stick to discourage betrayal, and a leash to control the real government.
  3. Modern shadow organizations could hypothetically manipulate global affairs by presenting a front in healthcare, using sex as a powerful incentive, and potentially engaging in forbidden rituals to exert control.

A Post for the New Year: Do we Still have a Chance to Avoid Collapse?

0 implied HN points • 01 Jan 23
  1. The year 2022 showed challenges in climate, energy, and resources, aligning with predictions from 'The Limits to Growth' study from 1972.
  2. Fossil fuels, natural resources, and agricultural production face issues, while renewable energy presents a positive potential for the future.
  3. Although facing significant threats, improvements in managing ecosystems and a shift towards renewable energy could help prevent the worst-case scenarios predicted in 'The Limits to Growth.'

A Christmas Post: The Miracle of Renewables

0 implied HN points • 25 Dec 22
  1. Renewable energy technology has advanced rapidly, making it more affordable and efficient than ever before.
  2. Transitioning to renewable energy is seen as a real solution to combat climate change and reduce dependence on fossil fuels.
  3. While challenges remain in transitioning to a renewable energy system, the progress made so far offers hope for a cleaner and more sustainable future.

The End of Europe: The Conclusion of a Long Historical Cycle.

0 implied HN points • 12 Dec 22
  1. Europe's history is marked by cycles of rise and fall, from the Roman Empire to the European Union.
  2. After facing challenges like population decline and war, Europe rebounded through technological advancements and colonial conquests.
  3. The European Union's struggle for unity faced internal and external opposition, leading to economic instability and cultural tensions.

What is the Next Thing that Will hit us? Brace for it, Because it may be Huge

0 implied HN points • 04 Dec 22
  1. The recent price cap on Russian oil might lead to disruptions in the oil market and unexpected consequences.
  2. Intervening with prices can have negative effects like creating black markets and scarcity of goods.
  3. The cap on Russian oil could be a strategic move involving geopolitical interests, potential profit gains for American producers, and hidden agendas affecting global energy consumption.

The Dreary Machine: What we are Becoming

0 implied HN points • 02 Dec 22
  1. The zone of behaviors considered 'lawful' by law is shrinking every day, leading to excessive regulations and sanctions on normal human activities.
  2. Living in a society where every action must be authorized and sanctioned by laws and regulations makes life oppressive and relationships strained.
  3. To maintain some sense of autonomy and joy, individuals must strive to minimize the constraints of obligatory and forbidden actions while expanding the sphere of 'lawful' behavior.

COP27: The Reasons for a Failure

0 implied HN points • 21 Nov 22
  1. Involving diverse groups of people, especially those most affected, in planning and decision-making leads to better outcomes than relying solely on traditional experts.
  2. Addressing underlying root causes of problems is more effective than just treating symptoms, emphasizing the need for proactive, holistic solutions.
  3. Avoiding delay tactics and actively pursuing responsible, collaborative actions is crucial for enacting meaningful change and progress.

Christmas' Nativity Scenes: Using Images to Cross the Language Barrier

0 implied HN points • 27 Dec 22
  1. Nativity Scenes are a creative and universal way to communicate across language barriers, especially in contexts like Catholicism.
  2. Religions like Christianity and Islam use visual imagery for non-verbal communication to reach a diverse audience.
  3. The use of visual methods, like Nativity Scenes, showcases the shift towards more visual forms of communication in our visually-oriented society.

Aramis: the transportation system that never was

0 implied HN points • 23 Feb 23
  1. The Aramis project was an ambitious attempt to revolutionize urban transportation by creating a flexible micro-metro system in Paris, but it ultimately failed due to high costs and technological complexities.
  2. Bruno Latour's detective analysis of the Aramis project highlights the importance of considering the interactions between all entities during the development of innovations, emphasizing the need for negotiation and love for technological innovation for project success.
  3. Latour's philosophical concepts, like the actor-network theory and the idea of Gaia, challenge traditional notions of culture and nature and call for a reevaluation of sovereignty to address the complex relationships between humans and non-humans in shaping policies and technologies.

Colin Campbell (1931-2022). A tribute to the father of the "Peak Oil" concept

0 implied HN points • 17 Nov 22
  1. Colin Campbell, known for the 'Peak Oil' concept, emphasized the real-world impact of oil availability on civilizations and economic growth.
  2. Colin Campbell's work with ASPO laid the foundation for awareness about finite energy resources and the need to address future challenges.
  3. Despite the decline in interest surrounding 'peak oil,' Campbell's ideas highlight the importance of understanding and repaying the Earth's resources.

Before the Collapse: a Review

0 implied HN points • 09 Dec 22
  1. Humans create models to hypothesize about future scenarios and make decisions based on them, but these models have limitations and can sometimes be misleading.
  2. Complex systems have unpredictable tipping points where rapid changes occur, often leading to collapse due to the principle of maximum entropy production.
  3. Collapses in complex systems are inherent, but they do not always mean total destruction; there can be recovery and new growth after a collapse, emphasizing the need for systemic thinking and collective action to mitigate future collapses.

The European Non-Union after the Qatargate: Was it Designed to Fail?

0 implied HN points • 18 Dec 22
  1. Non-places, like airports and hotels, offer anonymity for illicit activities, making them vulnerable to corruption.
  2. The European Parliament's multilingual structure leads to fragmentation, hindering collaboration and promoting self-interests over the common good.
  3. The European Union's complex organization and corruption issues suggest a possible design flaw towards failure, raising questions on its long-term viability.

The Age of Exterminations: How to Kill a Few Billion People

0 implied HN points • 15 Jan 23
  1. It's important to have discussions about population and overpopulation, even if opinions clash. The future will show who was right.
  2. The principle of utilitarianism can lead to harmful decisions, as seen in historical tragedies like exterminations. Blind faith in models or theories can backfire.
  3. Adopting a personalistic approach and the principle of 'First do no Harm' can guide decisions related to emergencies like pandemics and climate change. It emphasizes the value of human life and cautions against hasty actions.

The Failure of Scientific Journals: the Failure of Science

0 implied HN points • 05 Feb 23
  1. Scientific journals are hindering scientific innovation by becoming rigid and hierarchical structures that do not allow for changes and innovations.
  2. The high cost of publication in scientific journals is restricting access for many scientists, resulting in lower quality publications and a lack of impactful work.
  3. The current scientific publication process, influenced by funding rules and pricing policies of publishers, is contributing to a hierarchized and static scientific environment that stifles innovation and change.

How Forests Create Rain: a New Study on the Effect of Evapotranspiration

0 implied HN points • 17 Mar 23
  1. Forests play a crucial role in Earth's climate stability by generating rain through evapotranspiration.
  2. A recent study demonstrates that ecosystem transpiration influences atmospheric moisture convergence, creating different moisture regimes.
  3. Preserving natural forests is vital as they help maintain the water cycle balance, especially in the face of deforestation and climate change.