Shakos Metaheuristics

Shakos Metaheuristics explores the intricacies of rational decision-making, life principles, and the development of heuristics, touching upon AI advancements, societal issues, economic theories, and personal insights. It combines empirical analysis with philosophical discourse to address modern challenges and intellectual pursuits.

Artificial Intelligence Societal Changes Economic Theories Philosophy Personal Development Historical Analysis Music and Culture Finance and Banking Health and Science Film and Literature

The hottest Substack posts of Shakos Metaheuristics

And their main takeaways

Bubble? Seattle Housing Prices

0 implied HN points • 25 Jan 16
  1. Seattle housing prices have been increasing for nearly six years straight.
  2. Real-estate assets do not consistently increase in real value like equities.
  3. Real-estate markets have high transaction costs and rely on cyclical factors such as cost of credit.

Learning vs. Signalling

0 implied HN points • 08 Jan 16
  1. Learning new skills without focusing on signaling is valuable for personal growth.
  2. Continuous self-study and hands-on projects can significantly improve proficiency in various areas.
  3. Balancing the pursuit of knowledge with the need to effectively market and showcase skills is crucial in career development.

A few thoughts on Syria

0 implied HN points • 07 Oct 15
  1. History is not always controlled by grand commanders and pivotal moments, but can be chaotic and complex.
  2. The conflict in Syria is multifaceted and confusing, with different perspectives and sources of information.
  3. Understanding the various groups in Syria, such as the Free Syrian Army and al-Nusra, requires examining the motivations of Syrian civilians and the lack of clear organization within factions.

Messing around with DW-Nominate and Bond Returns

0 implied HN points • 12 Jul 15
  1. DW-Nominate measures partisanship within the U.S. congress by analyzing legislative voting records and relationships among legislators
  2. Yields data from U.S. treasuries reflect the U.S. economy's present and future, including future recessions
  3. Running regressions showed no clear link between political polarization and the U.S. economy, indicating a challenging relationship to identify

What Should I Post Next? Comment Here!!

0 implied HN points • 28 Jan 12
  1. The author is asking for suggestions on what to post next.
  2. They are open to writing theory, academic, or personal trading posts.
  3. The author values feedback from their friends and audience.
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Syrian Actors

0 implied HN points • 05 Sep 13
  1. Russia and Syria have a close relationship based on mutual defiance of Western demands.
  2. Iran supports Syria as a strategic ally against Western threats in the region.
  3. Hezbollah and the Mahdi Army are non-state Shi’a military groups backing Assad in the Syrian civil war.

Intro to Financial Theory: Part Four

0 implied HN points • 24 Sep 12
  1. Active investment firms should focus on creating positive economic rents through infrastructure, talent, and research, rather than solely aiming for alpha.
  2. Ricardo's theory of rents can help explain the significance of economic discovery in active investing, beyond just measuring alpha.
  3. Understanding economic rents is crucial in evaluating the value active investment firms bring to the market, even if traditional alpha measurements may not capture their full impact.

Intro to Financial Theory: Part 1

0 implied HN points • 19 Aug 12
  1. Understanding financial theory is important for social scientists due to the relevance of financial regulation and industry in today's world.
  2. Asset pricing theory and the concept of discount factors are key in determining the value of assets and investments.
  3. Efficient markets are maintained through principles like the law of one price and the absence of arbitrage opportunities, ensuring fair and rational pricing of assets.

Academics and The Industry

0 implied HN points • 15 Aug 12
  1. Many students who pursue a PhD end up making less money in academia than in the industry.
  2. The scientific method is crucial in academia, but it can't prove anything with 100% certainty.
  3. Financial economists face challenges when trying to prove theories due to the complexity of financial markets and the difference in approaches between academics and traders.

Life can be Confusing

0 implied HN points • 12 Jun 12
  1. Life can be confusing, especially when making big decisions about your future.
  2. It's important to question societal norms and understand why we follow them, rather than just blindly conforming.
  3. Don't let societal expectations dictate your choices; prioritize your own happiness and goals over external pressures.

Part Four: The Problems of Economics as a Science

0 implied HN points • 12 Jun 12
  1. Beatrice Webb advocated for government intervention for workers' welfare and safety, promoting ideas like minimum wage and better working conditions.
  2. Government intervention is essential for solving collective action problems in areas like healthcare, education, and labor laws.
  3. The debate between capital and labor influences policies, welfare state decisions, and the lives of individuals, blending economic theory with ethical considerations.

Part Three: The Problems of Economics as a Science

0 implied HN points • 01 Apr 12
  1. Different economic theories can lead to different conclusions based on assumptions about what is best for society.
  2. Marx's critique of capital based on the Labor Theory of Value is considered incorrect in modern economics.
  3. Bastiat argued that efficiency through capital, like outsourcing and automation, benefits society in the long run.

Liquid Money

0 implied HN points • 12 Mar 12
  1. Money does not behave the same way on a large scale as it does at an individual level.
  2. In a macroeconomy, the equilibrium between goods and the value of currency is not easily adjusted.
  3. The debate between a metal and fiat currency centers on balancing inflation, deflation, and unemployment, with each system having its own set of challenges.

Weakonomics

0 implied HN points • 06 Feb 12
  1. The author examines the economic aspects of cultural phenomena, like encores at concerts.
  2. Economists can sometimes be seen as full of themselves because they believe the world functions in a simple and rational way.
  3. The author mentions working on multiple posts at once, leading to delays in updates.

My Active Trades

0 implied HN points • 29 Jan 12
  1. There is a disconnect between academics and investors in Economics and Finance.
  2. In volatile economic times, a simple and boring trading strategy can be effective.
  3. Consider passive investing in S&P500 and selling calls for a safe yet active approach.

Review of Orwell's Experience in the Spanish Civil War and WWII

0 implied HN points • 16 Jun 15
  1. Orwell fought in the Spanish Civil War and saw the battle between workers movements and fascism.
  2. Orwell's observations in Britain during WWII led to his belief that rapid change was imminent, either in suffering or redistribution of political power.
  3. Orwell's wartime diary during WWII highlighted the lack of motivation and awareness of the war among the British people.

Charity 'Discrimination'

0 implied HN points • 23 Jan 12
  1. Yoplait donates to charity, but their donations are capped at $2,000,000 per year.
  2. The charity model used allows for charity discrimination, benefiting those who participate.
  3. By offering a 10 cent donation for sending in lids, Yoplait appeals to those with a conscience and maximizes their charity impact.

Housing Policy and the Subprime Mortgage Crisis

0 implied HN points • 19 Jan 12
  1. The Federal Reserve's research suggests that government housing agencies were not responsible for the subprime mortgage crisis.
  2. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were not the main culprits behind the crisis, even though they have faced criticism for their practices.
  3. The subprime mortgage crisis was a result of insufficient regulation and flawed incentive structures in the banking industry.

Economics in a Value-Based Society

0 implied HN points • 16 Jan 12
  1. An economist's job is to maximize utility and efficiency.
  2. Economics can function independently of societal values.
  3. The line between utility maximization and values can blur, leading economists to consider and develop their own values.

Lombard Street: Part Four

0 implied HN points • 08 Jan 12
  1. Changes in financial institutions and market structures have made some past arguments irrelevant, like the fear of running out of physical money due to fiat currency.
  2. During the 2008 crisis, policies were implemented to combat it, with a focus on the liquidity crisis and the use of complex financial tools like asset-backed securities.
  3. The liquidity crisis in 2008 was a result of interconnected factors like the subprime mortgage market, commercial paper market, and the impact of Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy, leading to a need for quick liquidity injections by the Fed.

Lombard Street: Part Three

0 implied HN points • 03 Jan 12
  1. Modern banking in Britain evolved from private banks using metal money supply to creating their own paper currencies.
  2. Central banks like the Federal Reserve were established to support and guarantee bank deposits and stabilize currency.
  3. Fractional reserve banking developed naturally in the private sector on the gold standard without government intervention.

Lombard Street: Panics and Money Markets

0 implied HN points • 01 Jan 12
  1. Lombard Street by Bagehot outlines how banks evolved to lend out more than they held in deposits.
  2. Panics and liquidity crises can be caused by domestic credit issues or foreign exchange rate problems.
  3. During a panic, primary dealers must lend cash to banking subsidiaries to maintain confidence and prevent a collapse.

Short-Term Trading is Still an Uncharted Game.

0 implied HN points • 31 Dec 11
  1. Short-term trading involves finding stocks below their 'true' value and waiting for them to rise back.
  2. The Modigliani-Miller theorem states that stock price remains the same regardless of a firm's capital structure, under certain assumptions.
  3. Variables like debt, equity, taxes, and liquidity can affect stock prices, creating opportunities or challenges for short-term traders.

Socially Conscious Investing

0 implied HN points • 29 Dec 11
  1. Socially conscious investing involves investing only in firms that meet ethical criteria.
  2. Socially conscious investing may not directly impact the bottom-line of 'unethical' firms.
  3. Efficient markets may lead to shares of 'unethical' firms returning to equilibrium prices despite socially conscious investors selling.

Malthus, Malthus, Everywhere

0 implied HN points • 28 Dec 11
  1. Malthus theorized that rapid population growth will lead to scarcity of resources and widespread poverty.
  2. Africa's high fertility rates may result in a Malthusian disaster, while developed countries face challenges supporting their elderly populations.
  3. Debates on Malthusian theory continue, with some believing human ingenuity can outpace population growth, but the future impact remains uncertain.

Christmas and the Myth of Deadweight Loss

0 implied HN points • 27 Dec 11
  1. Economists often argue that gift-giving at Christmas is inefficient.
  2. Efficient gift-giving would involve exchanging cash to allow receivers to choose what they value most.
  3. The act of giving, receiving, and the excitement of Christmas hold value beyond what can be measured with dollars.

Why Read Theory? The Launch of Schools and Thought

0 implied HN points • 25 Dec 11
  1. In academics, students of economics and finance are taught foundational principles through textbooks and original theorists, leading to differing perspectives on markets.
  2. Understanding economic theory and philosophy in-depth can provide a powerful skill for working at a higher level in the field.
  3. Theories and assumptions about human nature underlie all models, equations, and decisions in economics and finance.

Why Rationalists (sometimes) Madden Me

0 implied HN points • 24 Oct 16
  1. Rationalists believe in making decisions based on structured, scientific methods rather than instincts.
  2. It's important to acknowledge and address biases when evaluating choices.
  3. Balancing rationality with emotional instincts can be challenging, but it's important to find a personal line between the two.

Big Bad Banker Bonuses: Part Two

0 implied HN points • 28 Dec 11
  1. Corruption in the finance industry is not new and has deep historical roots in various cultures and religions.
  2. Regulations in the investment industry are struggling to keep up with the ever-evolving tools and tactics used by financial institutions.
  3. Examples like the 2008 financial crisis reveal instances of illegal compensation and corrupt practices among executives in big banks.

Post-Postmodernism

0 implied HN points • 16 Oct 16
  1. Neural networks are becoming better at classifying images and tasks than humans, but are still challenging to understand.
  2. Scientific verification is essential to avoid overfitting conclusions when studying complex topics like media analysis.
  3. David Foster Wallace's idea of 'post-postmodernism' in media highlights the dynamic interaction between viewers and media content.

Week Review #2

0 implied HN points • 13 Oct 16
  1. Scholars' conclusions on slavery may differ from common knowledge
  2. Focus on growth that builds a civilization to be proud of
  3. Concerns about radical immigration views and suppression of electorate-legislation connection

Scientific Failures

0 implied HN points • 05 Oct 15
  1. Early scientists faced challenges and confusion, leading to delayed discoveries like solutions to scurvy.
  2. There are flaws in scientific research and reporting, affecting public perception and understanding.
  3. It's important to test hypotheses rigorously and be aware of biases and misinterpretations in research.

Theoretical Models

0 implied HN points • 20 Sep 15
  1. Theoretical models in economics should be grounded in empirical evidence.
  2. Economic models should consider individual differences and diverse worldviews.
  3. The concept of rationality in economics may not always align with real-world behaviors.