Shakos Metaheuristics

Shakos Metaheuristics explores the intricacies of rational decision-making, life principles, and the development of heuristics, touching upon AI advancements, societal issues, economic theories, and personal insights. It combines empirical analysis with philosophical discourse to address modern challenges and intellectual pursuits.

Artificial Intelligence Societal Changes Economic Theories Philosophy Personal Development Historical Analysis Music and Culture Finance and Banking Health and Science Film and Literature

The hottest Substack posts of Shakos Metaheuristics

And their main takeaways

The Core Primitive of AI: Experimental Learning

294 implied HN points • 28 Nov 23
🕹 Technology AI Data
  1. LLMs can extract higher-order reasoning abilities from training data
  2. Corpus of human language acts as a vast universe of knowledge for AI training
  3. Training data for AI models can be seen as a composition of all recorded experiments

Banned on Twitter

176 implied HN points • 26 Sep 23
🎭️ Culture Social Issues Society Literature Television Ethics
  1. The author was banned on Twitter for a misunderstood tweet referencing a Game of Thrones scene.
  2. The author reflects on their Twitter usage, emphasizing quality content over follower growth.
  3. The author discusses their views on homelessness, suggesting creating communities outside cities for care and work opportunities.

My Top films/songs/books of 2023

58 implied HN points • 02 Jan 24
🎭️ Culture Film Music Books
  1. The list showcases top films, songs, and books experienced in 2023, regardless of release year.
  2. The films discussed delve into themes of fatherhood, space travel, and historical events.
  3. The music selections range from sci-fi themes to pop hits, each carrying personal meanings and reflections.
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Verbal Rotators Aren't Wordcels

255 implied HN points • 06 Feb 22
  1. High verbal skills don't automatically make you a wordcel
  2. Being a rotator involves regularizing thoughts and ensuring descriptions relate to reality
  3. Historical figures like Thucydides and Tolstoy exemplify being rotators by pushing the boundaries of human understanding

What Institutions Do Failing Young Men Have?

196 implied HN points • 16 May 22
  1. Many institutions do not effectively support failing young men, leading to a sense of stagnation and lack of purpose.
  2. Current default paths for troubled young men often lead to negative outcomes like homelessness, addiction, or low-wage jobs.
  3. Institutions like the Civilian Conservation Corps could provide valuable solutions by focusing on building masculine virtues and providing direction for young men.

Mass shootings as a measurable indicator of degeneration

176 implied HN points • 25 May 22
  1. Mass shootings, though statistically rare, deeply impact society.
  2. Urban violence affects more people but does not receive the same attention.
  3. Mass shooting events may be a signal of societal degradation, particularly in young men.

Gargoyle Theory

157 implied HN points • 14 Jun 22
  1. Gargoyle Theory is based on Hayek's concept of malinvestment due to low interest rates.
  2. Gargoyles are angered by distorted asset prices, zombie firms surviving on low interest rates, and people in wrong jobs.
  3. Financial and real economies need to align, with wealth creation tied to value and innovation.

History as an Empirical Science

98 implied HN points • 06 Sep 22
  1. History is debated as an empirical science, with differing views on whether it involves predictive analysis.
  2. Criticism against empiricism in history often focuses on the distinction between qualitative and quantitative analysis.
  3. Predictions in history involve counterfactual reasoning, where historical events inform beliefs about the future despite uncertainties.

Unvirtuous Heuristics

196 implied HN points • 04 Dec 21
  1. Be cautious of relying on non-randomized trials with imbalances in critical ways.
  2. Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) are crucial for reducing complexity and biases in research.
  3. Proper meta-analysis requires pruning weaker studies and considering biases to achieve variance reduction.

Antibodies, T-Cells, Omicron, and Endemic Covid

78 implied HN points • 16 Dec 21
  1. Antibodies from vaccines decrease over time, making reinfection inevitable with new variants.
  2. T-Cell immunity is crucial as it can prevent severe outcomes even if antibodies wane.
  3. Combining vaccination and natural infection may provide stronger immunity and lead to the transition to an endemic era.

Film Review: Come and See

39 implied HN points • 01 Apr 22
  1. 'Come and See' is a renowned Soviet anti-war film known for its intense and surreal portrayal of war atrocities.
  2. The film avoids traditional storytelling, instead immersing viewers in a sequence of harrowing events like a nightmare.
  3. While 'Come and See' may not be enjoyable to watch, it serves as a poignant reminder of the horror of war and the importance of understanding past conflicts.

A few game theoretic thoughts on Ukraine

39 implied HN points • 05 Mar 22
  1. Many Americans are interested in active military involvement in Ukraine, urging for a no-fly zone without understanding its implications.
  2. Defending countries not part of NATO defeats the purpose of the alliance by creating unpredictability in responses to threats.
  3. Actions in response to the Ukraine crisis should be based on geopolitical interests and safety, not purely on moral reasons.

What I've been listening to.

19 implied HN points • 12 Jun 22
  1. Songs can be associated with specific periods in our lives, capturing the mood and experiences of that time.
  2. Listening to happy music can also be a way to cope during difficult times, spreading energetic goodwill.
  3. Music can create lasting associations with significant life events, like the birth of a child.

watching war through a glass, darkly

19 implied HN points • 15 Mar 22
  1. The Syrian civil war involved many factions and foreign entrants.
  2. Questions arise about intervention in conflicts and supporting opposition forces.
  3. Consider the perspectives and consequences before advocating for armed support in conflicts.

australian psychedelic

19 implied HN points • 25 Feb 22
  1. Australian psychedelic music has a unique vibe that combines eery melodies with deep themes like climate change.
  2. Songs like 'The Weather' by Pond and 'Yours' by King Gizzard & The Lizard Wizard evoke emotions and stories without being direct in their lyrics.
  3. Psychedelic music has the ability to transmit messages and tell stories in a mystical and indirect way, touching on themes like renewal and fatherhood.

Coming soon

19 implied HN points • 03 Dec 21
  1. Newsletter about philosophy of science and prediction
  2. Topics include postrat stuff
  3. Upcoming newsletter from shakoist.substack.com

Intro to Financial Theory: Part 3

0 implied HN points • 13 Sep 12
  1. Market predictability is a key concept in financial theory, involving understanding different beta factors in regression analysis.
  2. Excess stock returns are generally unpredictable based on past price movements, while the T Bill market is highly predictable.
  3. Variables like dividend yields can provide insights into forecasting future expected returns, but predicting market movements based on past prices alone is challenging.

Intro to Financial Theory: Part 2

0 implied HN points • 21 Aug 12
  1. Efficient Market Hypothesis suggests that markets are efficient and mispricing does not exist, impacting how investments are viewed.
  2. Market efficiency comes in three forms: weak, semi-strong, and strong, each with its own implications for investors.
  3. Understanding different investment products and strategies is crucial in navigating the market and ensuring financial stability.

Part Two: The Problems of Economics as a Science

0 implied HN points • 29 Mar 12
  1. Economists need to consider subjective wealth measures, like health care being more valuable than luxury items.
  2. Economics as a science requires a set of rules or moral assumptions to measure efficiency and interpret data.
  3. Efficiency in economics is influenced by societal values and individual rights, not just quantifiable measures.

Part One: The Problems of Economics as a Science

0 implied HN points • 25 Mar 12
  1. Economics is a complex science influenced by human behavior and morality
  2. Utilitarianism plays a significant role in economic analysis to measure efficiency and value judgments
  3. Ethical considerations, like the tyranny of the majority, can impact economic decisions and policies

Short Keystone Pipeline Thought

0 implied HN points • 12 Jan 12
  1. The decision on the Keystone oil pipeline has political implications for Obama and his administration.
  2. There are conflicting perspectives on the pipeline's impact, with economic and environmental considerations at play.
  3. Environmental policies come with real costs that can affect jobs and families, highlighting the complexity of balancing economic and environmental interests.

The Second Week Update

0 implied HN points • 07 Jan 12
  1. The blog is co-run by the author and Alison, focusing on well-written posts and thought experiments
  2. They have recently graduated and are working in the investments industry, planning on attending graduate school in the future
  3. The blog aims to provide unbiased knowledge and theories on economics, welcoming guest posts from readers passionate about knowledge

Lombard Street: Part Two

0 implied HN points • 02 Jan 12
  1. Loans during a panic should have high interest rates to discourage unnecessary borrowing and preserve banking reserves.
  2. Loans should be given to those with proper collateral to prevent public alarm and maintain confidence in the banking system.
  3. In modern times, the criteria for lending and saving banks may be more complex due to external factors and moral considerations.

Education and Structural Unemployment

0 implied HN points • 30 Dec 11
  1. Unemployment rates are higher for those with lower levels of education.
  2. There is a mismatch between the skills of college graduates and the skills demanded by employers.
  3. Structural unemployment happens when workers' skills don't match what employers are looking for.

Big Bad Banker Bonuses: Part One

0 implied HN points • 27 Dec 11
  1. Employees in investment firms get large bonuses based on benchmarks even during economic downturns.
  2. Government interventions like monetary easing and bailouts allowed banks to make huge profits and give out large bonuses.
  3. Bonuses for bankers are a normal part of compensation in the financial industry, often tied to the economic performance of the firm.

SciFi Science: Part 1

0 implied HN points • 20 Nov 16
  1. Political theory and scientific experimentation don't always align well
  2. Humans process information like computers, interacting with reality based on evolutionary functions
  3. Understanding causality is complex and may not have a definitive law

Anti-outrage

0 implied HN points • 17 Nov 16
  1. History is complex and trying to attribute blame for past atrocities is often meaningless.
  2. Empirical methods should be used by human rights groups for concrete predictions and outcomes.
  3. Collective action algorithms tend to focus on issues that support a certain narrative, rather than addressing non-partisan issues with established solutions.

Election Forecasting

0 implied HN points • 12 Nov 16
  1. Focus on forecasting election outcomes including uncertainty rather than assuming poll numbers won't change.
  2. Mainstream methods rely on multi-level Bayesian techniques, but Taleb's model emphasizes forming an unbiased time-series using stochastic methods.
  3. Elections tend to be close to 50-50, with a 3-5% victory margin being significant, reflecting the dynamic nature of political game theory.

Review #3: Trump

0 implied HN points • 10 Nov 16
  1. People who support Trump are often driven by a feeling of elitist control in society
  2. Nationalists see patriotism as a virtue and believe in preserving their country's uniqueness
  3. There is a growing frustration among some groups with the established norms and beliefs

Empathy Models

0 implied HN points • 09 Nov 16
  1. Understanding how different individuals perceive interactions and the economy can help in politics
  2. Official statistics may not always capture the full reality of a community's experiences and perceptions
  3. Try to empathize with people who hold different beliefs, as their perspectives and feelings are valid

Before Work

0 implied HN points • 20 Oct 16
  1. The author reflects on a rainy day in Seattle watching a live stream of the Mosul battle before work.
  2. The author describes seeing fire, explosions, and small arms fire in the live stream, along with fireflies flying around like tracers.
  3. The author expresses a mix of emotions about the scene, acknowledging the young men in the battle and transitioning back to work.

Theresa May: Progressive Savior

0 implied HN points • 11 Oct 16
  1. Theresa May is seen as a progressive savior by incorporating frustrations of Brexit voters into mainstream politics.
  2. Extreme views on immigration and diversity are being challenged, advocating for a more nuanced discussion.
  3. Ignoring the concerns of a significant portion of the population can lead to extreme choices and disenfranchisement.

A Few Thoughts on ML in Economic Predictions

0 implied HN points • 02 Oct 16
  1. Economic forecasting often relies on time-series models based on past data and related series.
  2. Challenges in economic time-series modeling include dependence on economic theory and meaningful data variation.
  3. Effective economic modeling involves combining human knowledge of economic theory with the ability to simulate human behavior.

Week Review #1

0 implied HN points • 01 Oct 16
  1. The S&P500 doesn't react much to changes in Trump's chances of winning, creating a puzzle for investors.
  2. John Cochrane blames over-regulation for slow economic growth, not lack of ideas.
  3. Andrew Gelman criticizes NPR for sloppy science reporting on class separation causing anti-social behavior.

Political Parameter Spaces

0 implied HN points • 13 Jun 16
  1. In exploring political theories, we may miss important parameters and high-dimensional interactions, leading to potentially flawed conclusions.
  2. The definition of concepts like democracy evolves over time and can vary widely, making it challenging to define political ideologies clearly.
  3. It's important to remain open-minded, question assumptions, and avoid falling into the trap of tribalism when analyzing complex political issues.

Learning from War and Peace

0 implied HN points • 20 Apr 16
  1. We can learn from stories and simulations to shape our experiences and perspectives.
  2. Experiencing suffering can lead to profound changes in our outlook on life.
  3. Through literature like 'War and Peace,' we can explore complex human emotions and lessons to help navigate our own lives.

The House of the Dead by Dostoesvsky

0 implied HN points • 18 Apr 16
  1. The novel 'House of the Dead' by Dostoevsky is about a man's experiences in a Siberian prison camp focusing on relationships and personal growth.
  2. The book explores finding meaning in mundane routines and improving oneself despite challenging circumstances.
  3. The story delves into the blurred lines between good and evil, showcasing a range of human kindness and depravity in both prison and the outside world.