Don't Worry About the Vase

A world made of gears. Doing both speed premium short term updates and long term world model building. Currently focused on weekly AI updates. Explorations include AI, policy, rationality, medicine and fertility, education and games.

The hottest Substack posts of Don't Worry About the Vase

And their main takeaways

Covid 6/25: The Dam Breaks

0 implied HN points • 25 Jun 20
  1. The United States has failed to contain Covid-19, facing widespread loss and overwhelmed hospitals in many areas.
  2. Lockdown fatigue, combined with societal norms and lack of state capacity, contributed to the rapid worsening of the situation.
  3. Masks are crucial to prevent disaster, but the overall response to the pandemic has exposed serious inadequacies in our society.

New York Times, Please Do Not Threaten The Safety of Scott Alexander By Revealing His True Name

0 implied HN points • 23 Jun 20
  1. The New York Times should not reveal Scott Alexander's true name as it could harm his safety and livelihood.
  2. The potential consequences of revealing Scott Alexander's name could lead to permanent hostility towards reporters and the Times.
  3. It is important to communicate concerns to the New York Times and urge them to reconsider their decision.

Covid-19 6/18: The Virus Goes South

0 implied HN points • 18 Jun 20
  1. Northeast winning battle against Covid-19, Southern states likely getting worse
  2. Surge in cases concentrated in South and some Western states, few states setting new highs
  3. Avoid indoor events like Trump rally, safety measures crucial to prevent virus spread

Spoiler-Free Review: CrossCells

0 implied HN points • 03 Jun 20
  1. CrossCells is a Tier 3 game of logic puzzles similar to Sudoku
  2. The game contains 50 puzzles that can take a few hours to complete
  3. If you enjoy Sudoku-like puzzles, you might find CrossCells worth your time and money

On New York's Antibody Tests

0 implied HN points • 25 Apr 20
  1. Nate Silver outlined three main problems with the COVID-19 antibody test data.
  2. The COVID-19 antibody test has inherent issues with false positives and false negatives.
  3. Sampling bias in the study conducted at grocery stores could impact the accuracy of the results.
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Ban the London Mulligan

0 implied HN points • 11 Nov 19
  1. Standard decks heavily rely on 'messed up' Magic cards from Throne of Eldraine for success.
  2. Using the London Mulligan results in repetitive play patterns and excessive mulligans to find key strategies.
  3. There is a call to ban the London Mulligan in Traditional Constructed play to encourage flexibility and strategic planning in Magic games.

Dual Wielding

0 implied HN points • 27 Aug 19
  1. Having two phones with various chargers can significantly improve battery life and storage capacity
  2. Dual wielding smartphones allows for multitasking, comparing information side by side, and avoiding app punishments for toggling
  3. By designating one phone for distractions and the other for necessities, you can better manage your phone usage and notifications

Everybody Knows

0 implied HN points • 02 Jul 19
  1. Not everyone knows what you think they do
  2. Claiming 'everybody knows' can be a tactic to shut down discussion or deceive
  3. 'Everybody knows' can be a way to establish truth without evidence, using social manipulation tactics

Moral Mazes and Short Termism

0 implied HN points • 02 Jun 19
  1. When managers focus on short-term success, they might be trading unmeasured assets for measured assets.
  2. Companies like Amazon, Uber, and Tesla get high valuations by hitting legible short-term metrics that represent long-term growth.
  3. Short-term evaluation of success often impacts long-term success, leading to distorted priorities and decisions in corporations.

New York Restaurants I Love: Pizza

0 implied HN points • 12 Mar 19
  1. The author shares favorite pizza places in New York City, providing insights and recommendations.
  2. The list includes detailed reviews and recommendations for specific pizza joints, with a focus on personal preferences.
  3. The article also touches on making homemade pizza, highlighting the joy of cooking and experimentation.

Book Trilogy Review: Remembrance of Earth's Past (The Three Body Problem)

0 implied HN points • 30 Jan 19
  1. The books present a bleak view of humanity's future, where survival depends on a few brave individuals against the masses.
  2. Technology in modern science fiction often focuses on problems and dystopias, rather than the optimism of older works.
  3. The trilogy's themes and plots reveal a change in how technology and humanity are portrayed in science fiction.

Game Analysis Index

0 implied HN points • 21 Jan 19
  1. The blog contains posts about game design, balance, economics, and related topics.
  2. Specific sequences of posts focus on Eternal and Hearthstone, as well as Artifact and card rebalancing.
  3. Game reviews are included, with recommendations for all games reviewed.

Advantages of Card Rebalancing

0 implied HN points • 01 Jan 19
  1. Changing cards keeps the game fresh and new by shaking up decks and strategies.
  2. Adapting cards based on player feedback can lead to a more enjoyable gaming experience.
  3. Frequent card adjustments allow for experimentation, correcting mistakes, and maintaining excitement in new card sets.

Card Balance and Artifact

0 implied HN points • 28 Dec 18
  1. In collectible card games, having some cards intentionally be more powerful is acceptable and can create strategic variety.
  2. The balance between different cards and colors is crucial in preventing oppressive deck dominance.
  3. Players' perception of card rarity, game economy, and card balance can significantly impact their enjoyment and engagement with the game.

Artifact Embraces Card Balance Changes

0 implied HN points • 26 Dec 18
  1. Artifact made significant card balance changes, including nerfing powerful cards and improving weaker ones.
  2. The philosophy behind creating, balancing, and modifying cards has shifted towards increasing diversity in gameplay.
  3. Players have overwhelmingly reacted positively to the card balance changes in Artifact, indicating potential success in evolving the game.

Fifteen Things I Learned From Watching a Game of Secret Hitler

0 implied HN points • 17 Dec 18
  1. Liberals know nothing, fascists know everything.
  2. Most democratic government policies are fascist ones that expand government power.
  3. Passing liberal policies can lead to future policies being more likely to be fascist.

Prediction Markets Are About Being Right

0 implied HN points • 08 Dec 18
  1. Prediction markets prioritize being right about outcomes.
  2. There are three main types of markets: Consumption markets, commercial markets, and prediction markets.
  3. Prediction markets enable individuals to focus on truth and objective outcomes, unlike other markets where social factors play a larger role.

Review: Artifact

0 implied HN points • 22 Nov 18
  1. Artifact is a complex, strategic game that rewards dedicated players.
  2. The economic model of Artifact is based on purchasing cards and has been described as generous.
  3. The game offers rich gameplay experiences, with complex mechanics and various modes of play.

Eternal: The Exit Interview

0 implied HN points • 10 Oct 18
  1. Eternal is modern Magic with simplifications, Hearthstone-style economy, and is highly praised for its accomplishments.
  2. Constructed play involves decks with high reliance on legendary cards, lack of unique deck strategies, and redundancy in powerful cards.
  3. Limited play in Eternal has high variance due to bad cards, tribal drafting, and challenges with pack direction balance, and rewards for taking constructed rares.

On Robin Hanson's Board Game

0 implied HN points • 08 Sep 18
  1. Robin Hanson's board game proposal involves using dollars as poker chips and creating a market for suspects in a mystery setting.
  2. The game can be divided into four stages: Setup, Early Game, Late Game, and Resolution, each with different gameplay strategies.
  3. Players need to pay attention to clues and the behavior of other players to make strategic trades and maximize their chances of winning.

You Play to Win the Game

0 implied HN points • 30 Aug 18
  1. Always play to win the game.
  2. Focus on maximizing win probability, not points.
  3. Strategically plan to win the entire event, not just individual rounds.

Chris Pikula Belongs in the Magic Hall of Fame

0 implied HN points • 22 Aug 18
  1. Chris Pikula deserves to be in the Magic Hall of Fame for his positive impact on the game.
  2. Good behavior should be rewarded, while bad behavior should be punished to maintain a healthy community.
  3. It is important to stand against cheating and honor integrity in all aspects of life.

Prediction Markets: When Do They Work?

0 implied HN points • 26 Jul 18
  1. Prediction markets need well-defined outcomes to be successful.
  2. Quick resolution of markets attracts more interest and participation.
  3. Prediction markets require probable resolution to prevent wasted resources and maintain engagement.

Who Wants The Job?

0 implied HN points • 22 Jul 18
  1. Finding good candidates for a job can be challenging, even with a large number of applications
  2. Basic skills like communication and punctuality are often lacking in job applicants
  3. Employers may struggle to hire because many applicants do not meet even minimal job requirements

Simplicio and Sophisticus

0 implied HN points • 22 Jul 18
  1. Simplicio believes in using words as they are, even if they have unintended implications.
  2. Sophisticus focuses on precise, well-measured actions and labels people who think differently.
  3. Finding a balance between simplifying the world with models and not losing sight of key elements is crucial.

Why Destructive Value Capture?

0 implied HN points • 18 Jun 18
  1. Implementing a suggested proposition can create value and improve customer experience.
  2. Not implementing a valuable proposition can lead to destructive value capture.
  3. When price adjustment is not possible, it is important to find alternative ways to balance supply and demand without causing destruction of value.

Front Row Center

0 implied HN points • 11 Jun 18
  1. Offering less can provide more value in certain situations.
  2. Introducing risk and creating auctions can harm customer experience.
  3. Avoiding time-based auctions and minimizing value at stake is crucial.

Simplified Poker Strategy

0 implied HN points • 06 Jun 18
  1. In poker, your strategy should change based on the cards you hold at the start.
  2. To form a non-dominated strategy, consider probabilities for different betting and calling actions.
  3. Analyzing opponents' strategies and adjusting your own based on it is crucial in poker.

Simplified Poker

0 implied HN points • 04 Jun 18
  1. Simplified Poker is played with a 3-card deck.
  2. Players take turns to bet or check, with at most one bet per hand.
  3. The goal is to maximize the average number of chips won over all rounds.

Zvi Will Be In San Francisco January 15-21

0 implied HN points • 01 Jan 18
  1. Zvi will be in San Francisco from January 15-21 for a vacation.
  2. He plans to connect with friends, seek knowledge and offer advice.
  3. Most nights, he expects to stay in Berkeley.

The Story CFAR

0 implied HN points • 25 Dec 17
  1. Consider donating to organizations like CFAR that focus on teaching rationality.
  2. CFAR's fundraiser is aiming to secure a permanent home which could greatly enhance their operations.
  3. CFAR's measurement of impact may have limitations, but they are actively working to address these concerns.

Pascal's Muggle Pays

0 implied HN points • 16 Dec 17
  1. When faced with the potential of great good at a low cost, like with Pascal's Muggle scenario, it's often worth paying up.
  2. Having a solid decision-making algorithm is crucial to avoid being fooled into paying for large claims without proper evidence.
  3. It's important to fight cognitive biases like scope insensitivity and status quo bias to make better decisions and avoid getting 'Pascal's mugged.'

Book Review: The Complacent Class

0 implied HN points • 16 Dec 17
  1. Tyler Cowen argues that society needs to believe untrue things for it to succeed.
  2. Complacency is valued over striving, but individuals exploit at the expense of exploration.
  3. Efficiency in matching can lead to exploitation over exploration and exacerbate inequality.

Book Review: The Captured Economy

0 implied HN points • 11 Dec 17
  1. The book 'The Captured Economy' argues that regressive regulations are harming the economy and increasing inequality.
  2. The book focuses on financial regulation, land use restrictions, intellectual property, and occupational licensing as key issues.
  3. Recommendations include reforms to reduce bad regulations, increase housing density, scale back excessive intellectual property rights, and address unnecessary occupational licenses.

Expanding Premium Mediocrity

0 implied HN points • 05 Sep 17
  1. Avoid embracing premium mediocrity by being aware and critical of the societal pressures and illusions
  2. Understand the different stories and motivations behind why individuals may embrace premium mediocrity
  3. Premium mediocrity can be a costly signal of unrealness in a world where appearance and meta-signaling are valued over substance