Don't Worry About the Vase

A world made of gears. Doing both speed premium short term updates and long term world model building. Currently focused on weekly AI updates. Explorations include AI, policy, rationality, medicine and fertility, education and games.

The hottest Substack posts of Don't Worry About the Vase

And their main takeaways

Minimize Use of Standard Internet Food Delivery

0 implied HN points • 10 Feb 19
  1. Avoid using online food delivery services like SeamlessWeb and GrubHub to support local restaurants
  2. These services charge huge fees that impact small businesses
  3. Consider alternatives like contacting restaurants directly to help them thrive

Less Competition, More Meritocracy?

0 implied HN points • 20 Jan 19
  1. Expanding the candidate pool may not always result in better selections, focus on quality over quantity.
  2. Stop searching for candidates once the pool includes enough quality choices, more competitors may not improve selections.
  3. Punish weak candidates for faking being strong, reward them for revealing their true skill level.

Simplified Poker Conclusions

0 implied HN points • 09 Jun 18
  1. In poker, players should think on different levels to outsmart opponents.
  2. Effective randomization in decision-making does not always mean being random.
  3. Glomarization - refusing to answer questions can protect secrets and maintain honesty.

Nice Things

0 implied HN points • 31 Mar 18
  1. Nice things are pleasant, quiet, and make life better.
  2. Creating and maintaining nice things requires effort and focus.
  3. The tyranny of superficial niceness can lead to conformity and loss of truth.

Zeroing Out

0 implied HN points • 05 Nov 17
  1. In markets, unique knowledge can be rewarded when consensus is already priced in.
  2. In hiring, focus on finding candidates with hidden value rather than optimal interview performance.
  3. When making purchasing decisions, be aware of pricing strategies that challenge traditional heuristics.
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What Is Rationalist Berkeley's Community Culture?

0 implied HN points • 12 Aug 17
  1. Culture in a community is crucial and influences behavior.
  2. Rationalist Berkeley community values include tolerance and mutual support.
  3. The community may be losing focus on its mission of saving and improving the world.

Something Was Wrong

0 implied HN points • 05 Aug 17
  1. The classroom appeared nice, but something felt off
  2. The children's behavior seemed forced and unnatural
  3. Parents need to trust their instincts and not be afraid to seek alternatives

How to Destroy Civilization

0 implied HN points • 24 May 17
  1. Getting too deeply involved in games can be detrimental to productivity and well-being.
  2. Standing up to bullies and threats is essential to prevent them from gaining power.
  3. Ignoring destructive behavior and hoping someone else will address it can lead to negative consequences.

Why Rationality?

0 implied HN points • 08 Apr 17
  1. Being rational can be interesting and fun.
  2. Rationality is valuable for seeking truth, making good choices, and having useful thoughts.
  3. Understanding biases and status signaling are important steps in minimizing their impact and promoting better outcomes.

Metrics in Everything: "Human Lives"

0 implied HN points • 26 Feb 17
  1. Human lives are not the only metric that determines worthiness.
  2. Shifting things between categories to save lives is not a solution.
  3. When making decisions, actions must reflect the understanding that 'living longer' is just an incomplete answer.

Carpe Diem, the Optimization Game: Level 1

0 implied HN points • 17 Mar 15
  1. Optimizing your time involves a three-resource model: money, time, and mental energy.
  2. Moving from a two-factor model to a three-factor model is beneficial for time management.
  3. Enriching your decision-making structure is more valuable than adding more factors.

Magic Articles I've Written

0 implied HN points • 10 Mar 11
  1. Zvi Mowshowitz writes Magic articles
  2. Articles include deck guides and set previews
  3. Preferred platforms are Channel-Fireball and Star City Games

Timer Toxicities

0 implied HN points • 22 Sep 19
  1. Free-to-play games often use real world time to restrict player actions and resources, leading to addictive behaviors and constant check-ins.
  2. The design of timers in games can impact player experience, with factors like accumulation speed and tracking affecting toxicity levels.
  3. Different knobs in the game design, like the frequency of check-ins and the penalties for missing them, can lead to varying levels of compulsion for players.

Free-to-Play Games: Three Key Trade-Offs

0 implied HN points • 10 Sep 19
  1. Most free-to-play games make you pay huge amounts of money to make them less not fun.
  2. Free-to-play games can ruin focus, days, and lives by forcing constant attention and panic.
  3. Free-to-play games give rare resources needed to advance and prevent efficient trading, leading players to get stuck and potentially get screwed.

United We Blame

0 implied HN points • 16 Apr 17
  1. United Airlines has a reputation for being awful, and recent incidents have reinforced this perception.
  2. The airline industry faces challenges due to high fixed costs, strong focus on low prices, and heavy regulations.
  3. Proposed solutions to improve air travel include reducing frequent flyer programs, subsidizing less popular routes, and making pricing more transparent.

Responses to Tyler Cowen on Rationality

0 implied HN points • 04 Apr 17
  1. Rationalist community is praised for efforts to acknowledge and compensate for biases
  2. Challenges of overconfidence and cultural specificity are debated within the rationality community
  3. Emphasis on travel and diverse perspectives for intellectual growth and minimizing biases

In a world... of venture capital

0 implied HN points • 15 May 15
  1. Venture capital firms dominate the market by making larger profits while smaller firms struggle.
  2. Start-ups aim to avoid 'down' rounds to maintain their valuation and attract investors.
  3. Success in the venture capital world relies heavily on signaling, reputation, and the ability to raise future funding.

Trolley Problems: Conveniently Inconvenient Worlds Considered

0 implied HN points • 14 May 15
  1. The trolley problem isn't always simple and straightforward, it can get very complicated.
  2. In unique scenarios, using correct decision theory can lead to unexpected outcomes.
  3. Ethical considerations in trolley problems can involve complex and surprising factors.

Team New York City

0 implied HN points • 13 May 15
  1. The author will not be working with Channel-Fireball team for Pro Tour: Magic Origins due to logistic and financial reasons.
  2. The author will be testing with a new team named Team New York City, combining Magic Online, Cockatrice, and in-person testing.
  3. The author is looking for teammates who are enjoyable to work with, contribute well, and are logistically feasible for in-person testing in New York City.

What is stupid?

0 implied HN points • 12 May 15
  1. Conventional wisdom can be considered stupid when it falls short of high standards.
  2. Relative stupidity is a valid concept for comparing different courses of action, theories, or people.
  3. Calling actions stupid is not the same as calling a person incapable, but balancing those messages is complex.

Carpe Diem: The Problem of Scarcity and Abundance

0 implied HN points • 01 May 15
  1. Being flexible and having options is valuable, falling into scarcity traps can be costly.
  2. Scarcity traps can lead to a self-perpetuating cycle of shortages and falling behind.
  3. Avoid falling into both scarcity and abundance traps by valuing resources and planning ahead.

Covid 6/17: One Last Scare

0 implied HN points • 17 Jun 21
  1. The Delta variant is a significant concern in the fight against Covid-19.
  2. Vaccination rates are key in determining the future trajectory of the pandemic.
  3. Interpretability work on AI is urgent to address future challenges and ensure safety.

Covid 5/27: The Final Countdown

0 implied HN points • 27 May 21
  1. Life in America seems to be returning to normal with decreasing Covid numbers.
  2. The lab escape hypothesis for Covid's origin is now widely considered highly likely and being officially investigated.
  3. FDA has made some controversial decisions, inclduing not approving safe vaccines right away and regulating substances like NAC as drugs.

Scott Alexander 2021 Predictions: Buy/Sell/Hold

0 implied HN points • 27 Apr 21
  1. Biden's approval rating likely to stay above 50%
  2. Andrew Yang's chance of becoming New York Mayor is at 70%, not 80%
  3. Significant uncertainty around the prediction for major damage from BLM protests

Covid 4/22: Crisis in India

0 implied HN points • 22 Apr 21
  1. The United States is seeing declines in Covid cases, but India is in crisis due to lack of vaccine access.
  2. Actions have consequences - the lack of acceleration in vaccine production has led to a high human cost in India.
  3. Data errors and reporting delays can impact understanding of Covid trends, but vaccination progress is slowly declining deaths.

Covid 4/15: Are We Seriously Doing This Again

0 implied HN points • 15 Apr 21
  1. There is frustration over the decision to pause the Johnson & Johnson vaccine due to rare clotting cases.
  2. Misleading information and fear-mongering about vaccine efficacy can impact public confidence.
  3. Not implementing efficient vaccination strategies, like first doses first, can have negative consequences.

Everything Okay

0 implied HN points • 21 Jan 21
  1. There is a switch in brains between modes of Okay and Not Okay that affects stress levels
  2. Asking if everything is okay can have multiple meanings depending on context, like wanting reassurance or avoiding blame
  3. The concept of 'okay' can involve avoiding stress, determining necessary actions, assigning blame, or asserting dominance

Covid: The Question of Immunity From Infection

0 implied HN points • 20 Jan 21
  1. Immunity from past Covid-19 infection likely provides strong protection against future infections.
  2. Studies show a significant reduction in infection rates for those with prior infections, even if there is still some chance of getting a positive PCR test.
  3. Past infection seems to offer essentially zero meaningful health risk or risk of showing symptoms from Covid-19 during the study period.

2020 Election: Prediction Markets versus Polling/Modeling Assessment and Postmortem

0 implied HN points • 18 Nov 20
  1. The prediction markets did not perform well before, during, or after the election.
  2. Nate Silver's model was more accurate than the prediction markets in determining election outcomes.
  3. Evaluation of prediction markets should consider continuous predictions over time, relevant key information, and adjustments for biases and partisanship.

Covid Covid Covid Covid Covid 10/29: All We Ever Talk About

0 implied HN points • 29 Oct 20
  1. Trump may refuse to admit defeat in the election, mentally prepare for potential disruptions or violence in the aftermath.
  2. Be physically and mentally prepared for potential challenges and stress this election week, focus on self-care and self-preservation.
  3. Despite election uncertainties, remember to vote and do your part, but also take time for activities that help keep you safe and sane.

Covid-19 4/30: Stuck in Limbo

0 implied HN points • 30 Apr 20
  1. New York is seeing positive trends with a low R0 calculation.
  2. Other regions show mixed progress with some areas improving and others worsening.
  3. Lockdown measures may lead to a cycle of limited containment, emphasizing the need for alternative solutions.

PredictIt: Presidential Market is Increasingly Wrong

0 implied HN points • 18 Oct 20
  1. Presidential market predictions may not be accurate
  2. Movement in the predictions over time doesn't make sense
  3. Consider waiting to bet closer to the election for potentially better prices

Covid 10/1: The Long Haul

0 implied HN points • 01 Oct 20
  1. The Covid-19 portion of the debate lacked substantial discussion on real issues other than masks.
  2. Data suggests troubling trends in the Midwest and Northeast, but the South is showing improvement.
  3. Concerns about 'long haul' Covid and its potential long-term impact on individuals raise uncertainty and require further research.

Covid 9/24: Until Morale Improves

0 implied HN points • 24 Sep 20
  1. Pandemic news is overshadowed by other events like elections and protests.
  2. While positive test counts may seem bad, it's due to increased testing and is actually fine.
  3. CDC acknowledged Covid-19 being airborne but retracted guidelines, showing inconsistency.

Free Money at PredictIt: 2020 General Election

0 implied HN points • 14 Sep 20
  1. There is potential for free money at PredictIt if you already have capital available, but not if you plan to deposit and then withdraw due to fees.
  2. The markets show interesting bets on potential outcomes like popular vote margins, Electoral College results, and election timing.
  3. There are various market opportunities at PredictIt, such as betting on political scenarios like candidates dropping out or impeachment predictions.

Covid 9/10: Vitamin D

0 implied HN points • 10 Sep 20
  1. Vitamin D could be a significant solution to Covid-19.
  2. Low Vitamin D levels are common and may impact health.
  3. More research and trials are needed to confirm the potential benefits of Vitamin D.

Covid 7/9: Lies, Damn Lies and Death Rates

0 implied HN points • 09 Jul 20
  1. Death rates did not rise as expected on July 2, and the recent increase in death rates is still weird and needs further investigation.
  2. Improvements in treating infected people may have contributed to lower death rates, but testing delays and potential fraud in reporting death rates are concerning.
  3. Wearing masks is crucial, testing delays are an issue, and decisions about reopening schools should consider safety and effectiveness.

Spoiler-Free Review: Witcher 3: Wild Hunt (plus a Spoilerific section)

0 implied HN points • 04 Jul 20
  1. Witcher 3: Wild Hunt is widely considered one of the best games of all time for its massive gameplay and real consequences of choices.
  2. The game offers a variety of quests and stories, romance options that matter, and a well-written narrative.
  3. Players face various challenges in combat and decision-making, with the game's ending being a major point of contention among gamers.

Covid 7/2: It Could Be Worse

0 implied HN points • 02 Jul 20
  1. The situation with Covid-19 may not be ideal, but it could be worse than it currently is.
  2. Government institutions like the CDC are facing criticism for their handling and recommendations during the crisis.
  3. The stock market's behavior during the pandemic has defied expectations, showing potential systemic inefficiencies.