The Healthtech Initiative • 2 implied HN points • 20 Feb 26
- A predictive marathon model built from 101 runners explains about 79.3% of the variation in finish times and has an average prediction error of roughly 18.3 minutes.
- Running performance is framed as two parts: baseline ability (like genetic or starting pace) and adaptation to training (how much fitness you gain per minute of training).
- About 21% of finish-time differences are unexplained — things like weather, illness, sleep, motivation, nutrition, and luck — which shows there are real limits to modeling human performance.