Freddie deBoer • 1856 implied HN points • 03 Jul 25
- Regression to the mean means that extreme results are unlikely to happen again without some change in conditions. If a team's situation changes, it’s not just luck but a new factor affecting performance.
- Using regression to the mean incorrectly can lead to confusion. If someone thinks a team will do worse because they lost players, that’s not regression to the mean; it’s a different kind of prediction.
- There’s a risk of making mistakes by assuming past results will always influence future ones, like betting based on past game outcomes. Each situation should be treated by its own conditions.