The hottest Capital Markets Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Musings on Markets 0 implied HN points 20 Jan 17
  1. Understanding currency is really important for evaluating companies. You can't just ignore how different currencies affect cash flows and the value of assets.
  2. You should be able to value a company in any currency without changing its actual worth. The key is to keep your estimates consistent across cash flows and risk rates.
  3. When estimating future exchange rates, a simple approach is to consider how inflation rates differ between currencies. It helps you make better valuations without overcomplicating things.
Musings on Markets 0 implied HN points 04 Nov 16
  1. Discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis needs a discount rate, typically estimated using beta to assess risk, but not everyone agrees on using this method.
  2. Investors can use alternative risk measures if they don't like betas or modern portfolio theory, such as based on historical earnings or other company characteristics.
  3. It's important to recognize that while betas can help estimate costs of equity, there are other ways to evaluate risk that might better fit different viewpoints on investing.
Musings on Markets 0 implied HN points 30 Apr 11
  1. You can adjust cash flows for risk in two main ways: estimating expected cash flows across scenarios and using certainty equivalent cash flows. Both methods aim to accurately reflect investment risk.
  2. Certainty equivalent cash flows account for risk by using a safer value an investor would accept instead of the expected cash flow. This helps to quantify how risk-averse someone is when valuing their investment.
  3. Risk adjusting cash flows isn't necessarily easier than adjusting discount rates. It's important to know when to apply simple methods, like focusing on safe cash flows or dividends, but also to recognize their limitations.
Musings on Markets 0 implied HN points 30 Apr 11
  1. It's easier to figure out the cost of debt because you can see the interest rate when borrowing. This makes it a more straightforward number to use when looking at a company's finances.
  2. You can estimate the cost of equity by comparing it to the cost of debt and factoring in the volatility of both stocks and bonds. If the cost of debt is 8%, the cost of equity might be higher, like 12%, if stocks are riskier.
  3. This method works best for big companies with significant debt. However, it has limits because equity risk and bond risk are different, so care is needed in using this approach.
Musings on Markets 0 implied HN points 31 Jan 10
  1. Emerging markets are seeing more companies being publicly traded, which makes their financial markets grow and become stronger. This is especially true in big economies like India, China, and Brazil.
  2. Liquidity issues are now affecting both emerging and developed markets, showing that crises can happen anywhere. Emerging markets are becoming more liquid as local investor bases expand.
  3. The risk of government default is being reconsidered, as some developed market governments show vulnerabilities. People are starting to value companies in emerging markets more based on their fundamentals rather than government risks.
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Coin Metrics' State of the Network 0 implied HN points 16 Dec 25
  1. Institutional adoption accelerated — spot ETFs drew large inflows, digital asset treasuries (DATs) emerged as a new source of demand, and crypto IPOs brought more firms into mainstream capital markets.
  2. Regulatory clarity improved with the GENIUS Act creating the first federal stablecoin framework and strengthening the bridge between blockchain systems and traditional financial rails.
  3. Onchain infrastructure scaled as blockspace expanded across major L1s and L2s, costs fell, stablecoin supply approached $300B, and tokenization moved from experiment to production, even while prices remained volatile.