The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

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Top Links 777 Standout productivity. China bottoms out. AIDS deaths & the "Californian Ideology"

Chartbook • 257 implied HN points • 22 Jun 25
💰 Finance Economics Investments Markets Policy Global Trade
  1. Standout productivity has been noted recently, showing impressive performance in various sectors.
  2. China's economy seems to have hit a low point, sparking discussions about its future trajectory.
  3. There are rising concerns over AIDS deaths, connected to the broader cultural ideas around the topic, often referred to as the 'Californian Ideology'.

​ GDP=C+G+I+NX

Points And Figures • 772 implied HN points • 04 Mar 25
💰 Finance Economics Investments Market Trends Government spending Inflation
  1. GDP is an important measure of how well an economy is doing. When GDP goes up, it usually means people are earning more and living better.
  2. Different economists have different views on government spending. Classical economists often see it as a negative thing for the economy, while Keynesians believe it can be beneficial.
  3. Current economic uncertainty affects business investment decisions, making it tough for the economy to grow. However, there are signs of recovery, like increased merger activity.

The Three Types of Money Behind Silicon Valley's Rise to Dominance

The Future, Now and Then • 110 implied HN points • 25 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Speculation Economic Theory Venture Capital
  1. Silicon Valley's success relies on three types of money: government contracts, product revenues, and speculative investments. Each plays a different role in funding and shaping tech companies.
  2. Many tech stocks are driven by 'vibes' rather than actual profits. This means their value can fluctuate wildly based on investor sentiment instead of real financial performance.
  3. When speculative finance overshadows the real production of goods and services, it can lead to an unstable economy. Companies need a balance of funding sources to grow healthily and sustainably.

Portfolio Review - October 2024

The Wolf of Harcourt Street • 339 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Financial Analysis Market Trends Portfolio Management
  1. The portfolio reached a new all-time high in value, showing strong overall performance this month. This indicates good investment decisions in the recent past.
  2. Several key companies, like Visa and Meta, reported better-than-expected earnings, reinforcing their growth potential. These results contributed positively to the portfolio's success.
  3. InPost and Nubank remain as targets for investment, reflecting strategies to capitalize on their future performance. Keeping an eye on their stock movements can lead to profitable opportunities.

How You Would Prepare for a Financial Collapse in The Near Term

OK Doomer • 176 implied HN points • 02 Mar 25
💰 Finance Investing Economic Policy Personal Finance Market Trends Crisis Management
  1. It's important to prepare for financial uncertainties because the economy can change quickly. Think about what you would need if you suddenly couldn't access your money.
  2. Many people can't just drop everything and move to the woods to escape problems. Most of us have jobs and families, so we need practical solutions for city life.
  3. Consider stocking up on essentials like food and water. Being ready for the unexpected can give you peace of mind in uncertain times.
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Economics Roundup #5

Don't Worry About the Vase • 1836 implied HN points • 25 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economics Taxation Investment Debt Trade
  1. Many people believe that average tax rates and structures are unfair or ineffective. This could mean that policies need to evolve to better meet people's needs without creating high penalties for earning more.
  2. Trade barriers impact economic growth negatively, as they create higher costs in trade and limit opportunity for development across regions, both domestically and internationally.
  3. Access to credit can significantly influence people's financial wellbeing. If restrictions are placed on credit availability, it can harm those who are already struggling financially.

Too much or not enough of Ricardo?

Global Inequality and More 3.0 • 1102 implied HN points • 13 Jun 25
💰 Finance Economic Theory Globalization Inequality Political Economy
  1. David Ricardo's economic ideas are still influential, but they often ignore important social classes and conflicts. It's crucial to consider how class affects the economy.
  2. The effects of globalization are often viewed just through a Western lens, which can overlook the benefits it has brought to many people in other parts of the world. This creates a skewed understanding of economic progress.
  3. Critiquing historical economic figures like Ricardo should include recognizing their contributions to understanding social dynamics, not just focusing on their abstract theories.

The Pettis Paradigm and the Second China Shock

Noahpinion • 16059 implied HN points • 16 Jan 25
💰 Finance International Trade Macroeconomics Economic Policy
  1. China has a large trade surplus, which is complex and not solely based on traditional economic theories. Many think its economy is getting help through government loans and subsidies.
  2. There are many opinions on how to deal with China's trade practices, especially the idea of using tariffs. Some believe that tariffs can help change China's focus from exporting to better domestic consumption.
  3. Economics is complicated, and experts often disagree on how to fix trade issues. Current solutions might not work as intended, and some past policies have not improved the situation as hoped.

Infographics: Centrally Cleared U.S. Treasury Market Flows

Concoda • 178 implied HN points • 13 Jun 25
💰 Finance Market Trends Trading Investments Economy Monetary Policy
  1. The U.S. Treasury market uses a central counterparty to manage trades. This helps ensure that transactions are processed smoothly and securely.
  2. Understanding the flow of money in the U.S. Treasury market is important for seeing how the economy functions. It gives insights into larger financial trends.
  3. Infographics can help simplify complex information about the Treasury market, making it easier to understand for everyone. Visuals often make learning about finance more accessible.

Thesis Drift

MD&A • 118 implied HN points • 29 Jun 25
💰 Finance Investing Economics Behavioral Finance Market Analysis Public Policy
  1. Investing can be a fun and intellectually stimulating puzzle, similar to solving crosswords or watching movies. If you enjoy it, picking stocks can be a rewarding hobby even if it's not always financially beneficial.
  2. Thesis drift is when investors create new reasons to hold onto a stock after their original reasons have failed. Instead of admitting they were wrong and moving on, they keep justifying their position and often end up losing more money.
  3. In both investing and life, it's important to recognize when a strategy isn't working. Instead of sticking to failed ideas, we should be willing to change course and learn from our mistakes to find better paths.

Yes, Americans are much richer than Japanese people

Noahpinion • 28353 implied HN points • 24 Dec 24
💰 Finance Economics Wealth Income
  1. Americans generally have a higher standard of living compared to Japanese people, especially when you look at their salaries. Even though Japan has a strong economy, many people earn significantly less than their American counterparts, especially for starting jobs.
  2. Living standards in Japan might seem appealing due to factors like safety and good public transportation, but these benefits can be overshadowed by long working hours and less leisure time. While Japan is safe and has beautiful cities, many people still work hard and face economic struggles.
  3. While GDP can show how wealthy a country is, it doesn't capture everything about quality of life. Americans have access to more modern conveniences and have higher average salaries, but Japan offers a safer and healthier living environment, which makes comparing them more complicated.

How do we measure whether China's economy is "ahead" of America's?

Noahpinion • 20059 implied HN points • 04 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economics Trade GDP Currency Growth
  1. There are different ways to measure the size of economies, like using nominal GDP or purchasing power parity (PPP). Depending on the method, we can get very different perspectives on whether China's economy is ahead of America's.
  2. The exchange rate can change the perception of an economy's size, especially if a country's currency is weak. If China's yuan strengthens, it could suddenly appear larger than the U.S. economy in nominal terms.
  3. When comparing economies, it's important to consider local prices and living standards. For a more accurate view of how people live and what they can afford, using PPP is crucial despite its complexity and potential inaccuracies.

Top Links 772 Private equity polarizes. South Africa's growth chances dim & the Holy Alliance as "steampunk Terminator".

Chartbook • 329 implied HN points • 17 Jun 25
💰 Finance Investments Markets Economics Corporate Private Equity
  1. Private equity is causing more division among investors. Some big firms are sticking to traditional methods, while others are trying out new strategies with insurance.
  2. South Africa's chance for economic growth is looking weaker. This raises concerns about the future for jobs and investments in the country.
  3. The topic of the 'Holy Alliance' compares it to a 'steampunk Terminator'. This likely reflects complex interactions between various powers in a rapidly changing world.

Are Economic Worries Overblown?

Spilled Coffee • 36 implied HN points • 05 Mar 25
💰 Finance Economics Investing Market Trends Home Sales Policy Impact
  1. The U.S. stock market is down, with the S&P 500 dropping 6% this year due to economic worries. Many people are feeling uncertain about the economy right now.
  2. Pending home sales in the U.S. have hit an all-time low, even worse than during the 2008 financial crisis and COVID-19. This is a significant sign of trouble in the housing market.
  3. There is a lot of volatility in the financial markets due to government changes and spending cuts, creating questions about whether current market conditions are a good buying opportunity.

Goldman Sachs Thinks We Will Have A Decade-Long Bear Market — I Disagree With Them

The Pomp Letter • 839 implied HN points • 22 Oct 24
💰 Finance Investments Market Trends Economic Policy Debt Management Predictions
  1. Goldman Sachs predicts a long bear market for the next decade, but some believe we're actually in a bull market. Data suggests stocks could do well in the near future.
  2. The U.S. is facing a significant increase in national debt, which affects the economy. This surge in debt could lead to currency devaluation.
  3. Long-term, the impact of currency debasement will overshadow other economic factors, like stock valuations. It’s important to stay aware of these financial trends.

The Fed's Secret Confession: The Beige Book Reveals a Troubling US Economy

COVID Reason • 436 implied HN points • 25 Oct 24
💰 Finance Economic Trends Market Analysis Central Banks Consumer behavior Global Economy
  1. The recent Beige Book shows that the U.S. economy is actually slowing down, not improving. Many regions reported economic decline, especially in manufacturing.
  2. There are rising concerns about job security and consumer spending. People are cutting back on spending due to financial worries and many companies are freezing hiring.
  3. Global economic issues are also affecting the U.S. market. Weak demand for products and looming recession signals are worrying for businesses and consumers alike.

Macroeconomics: The predator of foolish regimes

Noahpinion • 19353 implied HN points • 19 Dec 24
💰 Finance Macroeconomics Debt Management Economic Policy Socialism
  1. Bad economic decisions, like keeping currency overvalued or borrowing too much in foreign currency, can lead to big problems for any government. This can happen regardless of whether a country is socialist or capitalist.
  2. Countries often face different types of economic crises. For example, some might deal with inflation while others face deflation, and they need to respond differently to fix these situations.
  3. Leaders who think they can control the economy through micromanaging are usually getting it wrong. Big economic problems need big-picture solutions.

Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in January; Up 3.9% Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 28 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic Indicators Housing Market
  1. The Freddie Mac House Price Index went up by 3.9% over the last year, showing that home prices are generally on the rise again.
  2. Many cities in Florida are experiencing significant price declines, with four of the six cities having the largest drops in home values.
  3. As housing inventory grows and sales remain low, it's expected that the growth in home prices could slow down in 2025.

Stablecoin Wildcat-Bank Roulette: The Genius Act Gambles with America’s Money

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 292 implied HN points • 21 Jun 25
💰 Finance Banking Investments Cryptocurrency Regulation Economy
  1. Congress is considering allowing companies to create their own currencies through stablecoins, which could lead to financial chaos like what happened in the past.
  2. There are concerns that regulators may struggle to manage the many stablecoins that could flood the market, posing a risk to the economy.
  3. Instead of issuing more currencies, a better approach might be to adopt practices from the European Union to focus on reducing fees and helping consumers without overloading regulators.

Economists and Price/Rent Ratios

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 189 implied HN points • 26 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Economics Market Analysis Investment Housing policy
  1. Most economists think that price/rent ratios should stay the same over time. But actually, changes in rents are what mostly drive these ratios.
  2. A big reason the housing market is often misunderstood is because economists don’t factor in how much access to mortgages has changed since 2008.
  3. Rents have been rising faster than other costs, which affects home prices. This key point is often overlooked, meaning many people are missing out on important trading opportunities.

Stocks I'm Watching As The Market Sells Off

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 18 implied HN points • 28 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Risk management Economic Analysis
  1. The stock market has recently seen a drop, and many analysts still insist it's always a good time to buy, regardless of prices. This seems unrealistic, especially when many factors suggest selling might be a better option.
  2. Big companies like Apple and Amazon significantly influence the stock market, while retail investors are often trading options instead of actual stocks. This creates a speculative environment where many aren't looking for real value.
  3. Despite market challenges, there are still opportunities to find valuable investments that aren't being highlighted in mainstream financial media. It's important to look for these hidden gems amid all the noise.

The CFPB Has Entered the Chat: Is A Synapse "Bailout" In the Cards?

Fintech Business Weekly • 44 implied HN points • 22 Jun 25
💰 Finance Regulation Consumer Protection Banking Payments Fintech
  1. The CFPB is involved in a bankruptcy case for Synapse, which could lead to financial relief for depositors who lost money. They may use a fund designed to help consumers if they win a judgment against Synapse.
  2. Paddle had to pay a $5 million fine for its role in enabling tech support scams that tricked consumers, especially the elderly. Now, Paddle is banned from processing payments for such deceptive businesses.
  3. MoneyGram settled for $250,000 after allegations of mishandling customer money transfers. They must now follow consumer protection laws better to ensure timely transactions and accurate information.

Money Market Update

Concoda • 243 implied HN points • 09 Jun 25
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investment Strategies Economic Trends Bond Market
  1. The money market is currently stable, with dealers holding more U.S. Treasuries. This might lead to more relaxed conditions in the market.
  2. Investors are not as worried about future issues with T-bills as they were during the previous debt ceiling crisis. This suggests a more confident market outlook.
  3. Upcoming auctions of longer-term bonds are expected to attract foreign investors, which could positively impact yields despite fears about rising rates.

Why Is Homeowners Insurance Getting So Expensive?

Construction Physics • 35493 implied HN points • 23 Jan 25
💰 Finance Insurance Economics Real Estate Risk management Climate Impact Homeownership
  1. Homeowners insurance costs have risen a lot over the past years, with a 33% average increase between 2020 and 2023. This has made it tough for many to afford insurance, leading some to rely on state-backed options.
  2. While rising construction costs and home sizes explain part of the increase, climate change and more frequent severe weather events are likely major factors driving up insurance prices further.
  3. Interestingly, even though some types of damage have become less frequent, the cost to repair them has increased, particularly for wind, hail, and water damage, which contribute significantly to higher insurance losses.

New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 26 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic Indicators Housing supply Sales Data
  1. New home sales dropped to an annual rate of 657,000 in January, marking a decline from previous months. This shows a slowdown in the housing market compared to last year.
  2. The average price of new homes has decreased by 5.8% from its highest point due to changes in what types of homes are selling.
  3. There is a high inventory of homes available, with a supply of 9 months, which is more than the usual range of 4 to 6 months. This indicates more choices for buyers but also suggests a slower market.

Discounting the Future: Financial Markets, Memory, & the Mirage of ‘Normal’

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 192 implied HN points • 19 Jun 25
💰 Finance Market Trends Interest Rates Central Banking Economic Policy Investment Strategies
  1. Financial markets are uncertain right now, with discount rates showing anxiety about growth and policy directions. It's a confusing time that could lead to either growth or recession.
  2. The Federal Reserve is divided on its future rates, indicating a cautious approach as they wait for more data. Mixed opinions exist about how to respond to inflation and economic conditions.
  3. The concept of a 'normal' economy has changed significantly since the 1990s. Today, interest rates and inflation are at levels that do not align with past expectations, leading to a new financial landscape.

How Will Financial Scams Affect Big Business in 2025?

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 1326 implied HN points • 31 Jan 25
💰 Finance Scams Economics Market Trends Financial Technology
  1. Financial scams are expected to impact big businesses in various ways by 2025. Companies will need to be more aware of these risks.
  2. There will be discussions on how different sectors, like private equity and tech, handle these scams. These sectors are likely to face unique challenges.
  3. A virtual summit is happening where experts will talk about these trends and share insights. It's a chance for everyone to learn and ask questions.

Shocking Stats About Your Purchasing Power And The US Dollar

The Pomp Letter • 559 implied HN points • 17 Oct 24
💰 Finance Inflation Investing Cryptocurrency Market Trends
  1. The US dollar's purchasing power has decreased by 50% over the last 30 years due to inflation. This means you can buy much less with a dollar today compared to what you could in the past.
  2. Despite wage increases, the average worker is effectively earning less after adjusting for inflation. This creates a situation where even though you might see more money in your paycheck, it doesn't go as far as it used to.
  3. Many people are looking for alternative ways to store value, like Bitcoin, as traditional currencies lose purchasing power and some goods continue to rise in price.

Semicap Stock Idea

Mule’s Musings • 102 implied HN points • 16 Jun 25
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Market Analysis Financial trends
  1. The article presents a stock idea related to semiconductors, a key industry for technology. Semiconductors are essential for a lot of modern devices, making them an important investment area.
  2. It's aimed at paid subscribers, which suggests that the insights may be more detailed or exclusive. Paid content often provides deeper analysis that can help investors make better decisions.
  3. Investing in the semiconductor sector may be beneficial due to its growing importance in the tech world. Understanding trends in this field can help guide smart investment choices.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 27 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic Analysis Housing Affordability
  1. House prices are currently about 1% lower than their peak in 2022 when adjusted for inflation. This means prices are still quite high compared to the past.
  2. The price-to-rent ratio is around 7.7% lower than the 2022 peak. This could mean it's more expensive to buy a house than to rent in some areas.
  3. Real house prices have generally been increasing over time, but it's been a while since they have hit new highs. Experts think prices may stay flat or slightly decline in the near future.

Investment Portfolio Strategies - A Beginner's Guide (Part 1)

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 379 implied HN points • 26 Sep 24
💰 Finance Investment Strategies Risk management Portfolio Management Financial planning Market Analysis
  1. Having an investment strategy is important because it helps you reach your financial goals. It guides your decisions based on your goals, how much risk you're comfortable with, and your future needs.
  2. Different investment strategies exist, like the 60/40 portfolio which mixes stocks and bonds, or the All Weather portfolio which is built for various economic conditions. Each has its pros and cons depending on your investment style.
  3. Before investing, ask yourself key questions about your savings, future expenses, and how much risk you can handle. This will help you create a strategy that fits your personal financial situation.

A Nothing Burger

Points And Figures • 692 implied HN points • 13 Feb 25
💰 Finance Trading Market Analysis Investment Banking Financial Strategy
  1. Moving the NYSE Chicago to Texas isn't a big deal in finance. It won't change how trading really works since most of it happens off the main exchanges anyway.
  2. Chicago's financial industry is struggling, with fewer major banks and investment firms. Many professionals believe Dallas is becoming a better place for finance careers.
  3. Texas is improving its business environment with low taxes and better competition for financial firms. This may help cities like Dallas attract more businesses and talent.

Pretty Stable

The Transcript • 59 implied HN points • 28 Oct 24
💰 Finance Economy Consumer spending Monetary Policy Deficits Inflation
  1. The US economy is doing well with steady consumer spending and healthy household finances. People are still buying, even if the growth rate is slower than last year.
  2. There is a strong demand for jobs, especially for those with college degrees. Many companies are looking to hire, but the unemployment rate for skilled positions is still very low.
  3. The upcoming presidential election is creating some uncertainty in the markets. Once it's over, people expect a better outlook for economic policies.

The Bear Cave #276

The Bear Cave • 513 implied HN points • 01 Jun 25
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investment strategy Financial News Executive Changes
  1. Activist reports are raising concerns about companies like Tempus AI and The Metals Company due to financial issues and past failures.
  2. There have been multiple executive resignations in various companies, indicating instability and potential problems within those organizations.
  3. A court case involving Grifols highlights the challenges short sellers face when providing critiques about companies, as their economic interests can complicate matters.

Macroeconomics: Some Defects

In My Tribe • 486 implied HN points • 29 May 25
💰 Finance Macroeconomics Banking Economic Theory Fiscal policy Financial Sector
  1. Macroeconomics often treats the economy like a simple factory that can be controlled centrally, but the reality is much more complex with many different goods and services. It's not just about one measure like GDP.
  2. Many economics students learn about macro without understanding the important role banks play in the economy. Banks help manage risks and their crises can lead to major economic downturns.
  3. Macroeconomic theories are often presented as timeless, but they should consider historical changes and events that shape the economy. Each economic crisis is unique and influenced by different circumstances over time.

My 6 Rules of Money

The Honest Broker • 16955 implied HN points • 11 Feb 25
💰 Finance Personal Finance Wealth Management Investment Strategies Financial Literacy
  1. Money doesn't guarantee happiness. An athlete with a $100 million net worth felt miserable after retirement because he missed the purpose and routine sports provided him.
  2. Having goals and a sense of purpose is crucial for personal fulfillment. The athlete struggled to find meaning in life once he lost the structure that sports gave him.
  3. Simply having wealth can lead to a feeling of emptiness without passion or direction in life. It's important to have interests and commitments that keep you engaged beyond financial success.

Top Links 762 Historicizing fx reserves. Russia's economy running hot. The fall of a fascist explorer & the "Ruler of My Heart".

Chartbook • 329 implied HN points • 07 Jun 25
💰 Finance Economics Investing Global Markets Financial Analysis International relations
  1. FX reserves are important to understand as they reflect a country's financial health and global standing. Historicizing these reserves helps us see how they've changed over time.
  2. Russia's economy is experiencing significant growth, which has both local and global implications. It's a situation worth monitoring as it may affect global markets.
  3. The discussion around a 'fascist explorer' suggests an examination of controversial figures and their influence on society. It highlights the importance of understanding complex historical narratives.

The Transcript Editor's Commentary

The Transcript • 19 implied HN points • 30 Oct 24
💰 Finance Economics Investment Monetary Policy Consumer spending Elections
  1. The economy seems stable and strong, with good consumer spending and low delinquency rates. People are feeling positive about their finances.
  2. Optimism in businesses is growing, especially with recent changes in interest rates. However, for more demand, companies want more rate cuts and easier lending conditions.
  3. The upcoming presidential election is important for the economy. The new president will influence economic policies that could affect the markets for years to come.

Stocks Have Done Something Crazy Every 20 Year Period...

The Pomp Letter • 439 implied HN points • 14 Oct 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Market Strategy
  1. Investing in stocks is usually better over the long term. If you hold onto your stocks for 20 years, you have never lost money.
  2. While some people trade stocks for quick gains, sticking to long-term strategies is often smarter and more rewarding.
  3. Global trends like rising liquidity might help both stocks and assets like bitcoin succeed in the future.