The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Finance Topics

Infographics: Intraday Repo Market Flows

Concoda • 140 implied HN points • 06 Jan 25
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investment Strategies Economic Trends Financial Instruments Banking
  1. The intraday repo market shows how cash moves between banks and institutions. It's important because it helps maintain stability in the financial system.
  2. Visual infographics can help people understand complex market flows clearly. They make the data accessible and engaging for everyone.
  3. Tracking daily repo market timings is useful for understanding financial trends. It allows investors to make informed decisions based on current market conditions.

Notes on the Macro-Finance Sitch for 2025-01-13 Mo

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 99 implied HN points • 13 Jan 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Labor Market Interest Rates
  1. The U.S. labor market is still strong, showing no signs of cooling off. Recently, 256,000 new jobs were added, which is much more than expected.
  2. Inflation in the U.S. hasn't exceeded the Federal Reserve's target since mid-2022, but there's concern it could rise again. The Fed needs to make sure its policies stay neutral to keep inflation in check.
  3. There are worries that the current financial market is overly optimistic. If the expectations for market growth don't pan out, it could lead to a serious economic downturn.

WEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2025-01-13 Mo

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 69 implied HN points • 13 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economics Markets Investments Policy Insurance
  1. 1. Understanding Economic Issues: The text discusses the idea that many problems in society are linked to economic misunderstandings and a lack of effective communication in the management of public services. It highlights the need for better systems to gather and process information for effective governance.
  2. 2. The Role of Government: It emphasizes that a government's primary job isn't just to keep people safe, but to empower them and solve crises effectively. Officials should focus on actual disaster management rather than just maintaining the appearance of control.
  3. 3. Challenges of Modern Technology: There is a critique of how tech companies like Facebook are operating without a long-term vision, which affects user experiences negatively. The discussion invites us to think about how technology can be used to improve our understanding and utilization of information.

How do we measure whether China's economy is "ahead" of America's?

Noahpinion • 20059 implied HN points • 04 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economics Trade GDP Currency Growth
  1. There are different ways to measure the size of economies, like using nominal GDP or purchasing power parity (PPP). Depending on the method, we can get very different perspectives on whether China's economy is ahead of America's.
  2. The exchange rate can change the perception of an economy's size, especially if a country's currency is weak. If China's yuan strengthens, it could suddenly appear larger than the U.S. economy in nominal terms.
  3. When comparing economies, it's important to consider local prices and living standards. For a more accurate view of how people live and what they can afford, using PPP is crucial despite its complexity and potential inaccuracies.
Get a weekly roundup of the best Substack posts, by hacker news affinity:

Portfolio Review - October 2024

The Wolf of Harcourt Street • 339 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Financial Analysis Market Trends Portfolio Management
  1. The portfolio reached a new all-time high in value, showing strong overall performance this month. This indicates good investment decisions in the recent past.
  2. Several key companies, like Visa and Meta, reported better-than-expected earnings, reinforcing their growth potential. These results contributed positively to the portfolio's success.
  3. InPost and Nubank remain as targets for investment, reflecting strategies to capitalize on their future performance. Keeping an eye on their stock movements can lead to profitable opportunities.

Money Market Update

Concoda • 378 implied HN points • 05 Jan 25
💰 Finance Market Trends Central Banking Liquidity management
  1. The Federal Reserve took steps to manage money market pressures around year-end, which helped stabilize the situation. They provided morning repo operations to encourage lower trading rates.
  2. Despite these efforts, many traders still chose not to use the Fed’s cheapest repo options, which showed a lingering fear about using those facilities. This meant that repurchase agreements still traded at higher rates.
  3. Looking ahead, the debt ceiling is expected to cause uncertainty in the money markets. As people prepare for this, interbank liquidity may increase, but it won't necessarily make funding any easier.

The Bear Cave #255

The Bear Cave • 629 implied HN points • 05 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Corporate News Economic Trends Financial Analysis
  1. Hims & Hers Health could be in trouble if the FDA removes its shortage label on semaglutide, which would stop them from selling compounded versions of the drug.
  2. Recent reports revealed Carvana's questionable dealings related to $800 million in loan sales and a possible SEC investigation, leading to a significant drop in their stock.
  3. There have been several high-profile executive resignations recently, indicating potential instability in companies like Integral Ad Science and Aurora Innovation.

Yes, Americans are much richer than Japanese people

Noahpinion • 28353 implied HN points • 24 Dec 24
💰 Finance Economics Wealth Income
  1. Americans generally have a higher standard of living compared to Japanese people, especially when you look at their salaries. Even though Japan has a strong economy, many people earn significantly less than their American counterparts, especially for starting jobs.
  2. Living standards in Japan might seem appealing due to factors like safety and good public transportation, but these benefits can be overshadowed by long working hours and less leisure time. While Japan is safe and has beautiful cities, many people still work hard and face economic struggles.
  3. While GDP can show how wealthy a country is, it doesn't capture everything about quality of life. Americans have access to more modern conveniences and have higher average salaries, but Japan offers a safer and healthier living environment, which makes comparing them more complicated.

Economics Links, 1/4/2024

In My Tribe • 470 implied HN points • 04 Jan 25
💰 Finance Market Trends Economic Theory Regulation Crypto Investing
  1. Paul Krugman talks about how gambling on asset prices is like a natural Ponzi scheme. People get caught up with optimism, which can lead to bigger financial risks.
  2. There are new types of market leaders, like Michael Saylor of MicroStrategy, who influence markets and create a kind of cult-like following among investors.
  3. In Argentina, Javier Milei is changing things by cutting government departments and privatizing state companies. His aim is to weaken the power of his political rivals.

Crazy bets on 2025 - 12 personal hedge funds predict the year

Five Links (and three graphs) by Auren Hoffman • 40 implied HN points • 13 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Predictions Economics Betting Market Analysis
  1. A group of twelve people made predictions about 2025 and placed bets on the outcomes. This makes it fun and competitive to see who can guess the future better.
  2. Last year's predictions didn't go well overall, with only a few being correct. It shows that forecasting the future can be really tricky.
  3. This year, they have some bold predictions about events in politics, the economy, and culture. Some predictions sound far-fetched, but others seem more likely.

Top Links 612 How global inflation came and went. The economic fallout from the coup in Korea and the revolution in Bangladesh & big trouble in Sturgis.

Chartbook • 386 implied HN points • 08 Jan 25
💰 Finance Global Economy Inflation Economic Policy Market Trends
  1. Global inflation has seen significant changes, impacting economies worldwide.
  2. Political events, like coups and revolutions, can lead to serious economic fallout.
  3. Understanding these events helps us see how connected the world's economies really are.

Lou Jiwei on China's banking, PE/VC, IPOs, and Big Tech's role in lending

Pekingnology • 30 implied HN points • 06 Jan 25
💰 Finance Banking Investment Regulation Technology Market
  1. Finance should support high-quality development by improving access to loans for private companies. This includes reducing risks for banks and treating all companies equally, whether state-owned or private.
  2. Government-backed venture capital funds need to focus more on market-driven models. This will help them foster innovation while allowing for some tolerance of failure among startups.
  3. It's important for internet platforms to share the risk in lending to small businesses. By co-lending a portion of the loans, they can help prevent systemic risks in the financial system.

Macroeconomics: The predator of foolish regimes

Noahpinion • 19353 implied HN points • 19 Dec 24
💰 Finance Macroeconomics Debt Management Economic Policy Socialism
  1. Bad economic decisions, like keeping currency overvalued or borrowing too much in foreign currency, can lead to big problems for any government. This can happen regardless of whether a country is socialist or capitalist.
  2. Countries often face different types of economic crises. For example, some might deal with inflation while others face deflation, and they need to respond differently to fix these situations.
  3. Leaders who think they can control the economy through micromanaging are usually getting it wrong. Big economic problems need big-picture solutions.

The Future of Finance: Substack’s Market Forecast Summit

Substack Blog • 18 implied HN points • 15 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investment Economics Market Trends Financial Independence
  1. Finance and business experts are increasingly sharing knowledge independently, as trust in traditional media decreases. This helps them build real connections with their audience.
  2. The Substack Market Forecast Summit will happen on January 31, where top finance minds will discuss investment strategies and economic trends for 2025.
  3. More finance professionals are using Substack to share their insights directly with subscribers, which offers investors better access to valuable information.

How Many Homes Do We Need?

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 316 implied HN points • 01 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Economic Policy Market Analysis
  1. There is a huge underestimation of the housing shortage in the U.S. Many professionals are saying we need less housing than we actually do.
  2. Current data shows there are about 15 million vacant homes, but many more are needed due to population growth. Estimates suggest a shortage of at least 15 to 20 million units.
  3. Building more homes can help lower rents and make housing more affordable, but there's a risk that new constructions may only be rented out at higher prices, especially if ownership becomes less accessible.

Investing Update: 2024 Recap & 2025 Outlook

Spilled Coffee • 84 implied HN points • 04 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Economic Trends Portfolio Management Market Analysis
  1. The S&P 500 had a strong year in 2024, finishing with a gain of 23.3%. It was one of the best years for the stock market since the late 90s.
  2. Many stocks performed well, like Nvidia and Palantir, while others like Boeing and Nike struggled significantly. Investors are keeping a close eye on these ups and downs.
  3. Although not as high as 2023, the actively managed portfolio outperformed the S&P 500 with a return of 49.5%. This shows a consistent trend of good investment decisions.

Problems at Sezzle (SEZL)

The Bear Cave • 443 implied HN points • 02 Jan 25
💰 Finance Payments Investments Banking Regulations Fraud
  1. Sezzle is a payment platform that allows customers to buy now and pay later, but there are concerns about its roles in facilitating fraud and illegal businesses.
  2. Some online pharmacies using Sezzle have been found to sell unapproved or counterfeit drugs, leading to consumer complaints about quality and delivery issues.
  3. Regulatory actions against companies like Google and past illegal activities show the serious risks and penalties involved in dealing with rogue online pharmacies.

What If We Run Inflation Hot: Harris Kupperman

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 16 implied HN points • 02 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Economics Inflation Macroeconomics Market Trends
  1. Inflation may rise faster than expected, which could surprise many investors. People are not prepared for high growth in the economy right now.
  2. The recent economic changes have benefited many workers and industries that were struggling for a long time. This includes wage increases in sectors that needed them.
  3. Questions are being raised about whether efforts to control inflation are really aimed at the overall economy or at a specific group of people in the rural areas.

Top Links 610 China's procyclical fiscal. Whole Foods v. Trader Joe's. Pakistan's surprise rally & chess dominance.

Chartbook • 286 implied HN points • 06 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economics Investing Market Trends Fiscal policy Consumer behavior
  1. China's fiscal policy has become procyclical, which means it is tightening when the economy needs support. This could actively hinder economic recovery in challenging times.
  2. Whole Foods and Trader Joe's represent contrasting business models, with Whole Foods focusing on premium offerings and Trader Joe's emphasizing value and unique products. This highlights different consumer preferences in grocery shopping.
  3. Pakistan experienced an unexpected rally, demonstrating resilience in its economy, alongside notable achievements in chess. This showcases the potential for growth and excellence in different fields, even in difficult circumstances.

Economic Errors

David Friedman’s Substack • 583 implied HN points • 28 Dec 24
💰 Finance Economics Wealth Trade Investment Tariffs
  1. Wealth isn't just cash; it can be land, stocks, or buildings. A person's gain in wealth doesn't mean someone else has to lose money.
  2. When countries trade, it’s not just about wages. The value of currencies affects trade costs, and tariffs can disrupt these complex economic balances.
  3. People often hold on to incorrect economic beliefs because they sound easier or support their self-image. Understanding the real logic behind economics can be complicated but helps us see the true picture.

Our 2024 Hedge Fund Analyst Christmas List

The Bear Cave • 2799 implied HN points • 19 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Financial tools Research
  1. There are many great free tools available for investors to research companies, such as the SEC Full-Text Search and Google Advanced Search.
  2. Paid resources like EdmundSEC and TIKR can provide deep insights and data for serious investors to enhance their research.
  3. Following insightful social media accounts and newsletters can be a valuable way to generate investment ideas and stay updated on market trends.

Goldman Sachs Thinks We Will Have A Decade-Long Bear Market — I Disagree With Them

The Pomp Letter • 839 implied HN points • 22 Oct 24
💰 Finance Investments Market Trends Economic Policy Debt Management Predictions
  1. Goldman Sachs predicts a long bear market for the next decade, but some believe we're actually in a bull market. Data suggests stocks could do well in the near future.
  2. The U.S. is facing a significant increase in national debt, which affects the economy. This surge in debt could lead to currency devaluation.
  3. Long-term, the impact of currency debasement will overshadow other economic factors, like stock valuations. It’s important to stay aware of these financial trends.

The Fed's Secret Confession: The Beige Book Reveals a Troubling US Economy

COVID Reason • 436 implied HN points • 25 Oct 24
💰 Finance Economic Trends Market Analysis Central Banks Consumer behavior Global Economy
  1. The recent Beige Book shows that the U.S. economy is actually slowing down, not improving. Many regions reported economic decline, especially in manufacturing.
  2. There are rising concerns about job security and consumer spending. People are cutting back on spending due to financial worries and many companies are freezing hiring.
  3. Global economic issues are also affecting the U.S. market. Weak demand for products and looming recession signals are worrying for businesses and consumers alike.

Why you'll hate my investment advice

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 02 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Personal Finance Economics Market Trends Real Estate
  1. Understanding the basics of an investment can clarify why certain opinions might seem oversimplified or dismissive at times.
  2. It's important to recognize different perspectives in investing, as they can affect how one interprets market issues.
  3. Sharing investment strategies can help others see the reasoning behind specific choices and thought processes.

Walking In Memphis

Behavioral Value Investor • 141 implied HN points • 31 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investment Market Trends Personal Finance Behavioral Finance
  1. When people are in pain or facing difficulties, it's easy to think that things will never get better. It's important to remember that these tough times are usually temporary.
  2. Using past pains can help us grow and improve, especially in things like investing. Instead of giving up, we should learn from our experiences and stick to our tried-and-true methods.
  3. The future is often different from what we've recently experienced. Just like healing in life, financial markets also recover over time, so we should stay hopeful even when things seem bleak.

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 47 implied HN points • 17 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Home Sales Economic data Forecasting
  1. Existing home sales stayed steady at an annual rate of 4.15 million in December, the same as November. This shows slight improvement compared to the previous year.
  2. The average price of existing single-family homes increased by about 5.6% compared to last year. This indicates that home values are generally rising.
  3. The upcoming report from the National Association of Realtors is expected to show even higher sales this month. If confirmed, it would be a third month of increasing year-over-year sales.

Top Links 605 The story of FRED. Africa's looming debts. The world of copper & art in airports.

Chartbook • 429 implied HN points • 01 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economics Debt Investments Market Trends Art market
  1. FRED is an important economic tool that helps track data over time, starting in the 1960s with economist Homer Jones. It shows how data can help understand the economy better.
  2. Africa is facing significant debt challenges, and awareness of these issues is crucial for global economic stability. It highlights the financial struggles many countries are experiencing.
  3. The connection between copper and art in airports showcases how different economic sectors can intersect. It's interesting to see how materials and art affect spaces we use every day.

The Best Investing Advice

The Generalist • 660 implied HN points • 23 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investing Venture Capital Market Analysis Decision-making
  1. Investing is all about finding great companies, not just good deals. Focus on what makes a company truly outstanding.
  2. Diversify not just across different industries, but also over time. Don't rush into investments; think long-term and consider market changes.
  3. Startups should offer something unique that stands out. Instead of competing with existing options, create a choice that reshapes the conversation.

THE MACRO-FINANCE SITCH: The Streams (of Falling Short-Term & Rising Long-Term U.S. Treasury Rates) Cross

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 115 implied HN points • 08 Jan 25
💰 Finance Markets Bonds Economics Investing Policy
  1. Short-term Treasury rates are falling while long-term rates are rising, showing a change in investor expectations about future interest rates. This shift hints at more uncertainty in the market.
  2. The current economic situation could lead to tumultuous changes similar to past events in the UK, with concerns about the U.S. government's approach to debt and fiscal policy.
  3. Investors seem to be valuing flexibility over fixed returns, suggesting they want to avoid risks associated with long-term bonds in a fluctuating economy.

Top Links 597 Costless disinflation. The world's undersea cable system. South Sudan's calvary & Jarmush takes us on a permanent vacation.

Chartbook • 715 implied HN points • 24 Dec 24
💰 Finance Economics Market Trends Investment Global Trade Policy Analysis
  1. Costless disinflation is interesting because it suggests ways to reduce inflation without any financial costs. This idea could really impact how economies manage price stability.
  2. Undersea cables are crucial for global internet connections, showing just how interconnected we all are. These cables help transmit information across the world quickly.
  3. South Sudan's cavalry highlights unique aspects of its culture and history. It also points to how different lifestyles and traditions exist around the globe.

Erdmann Housing Tracker, 2024 in Review (January to June)

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 84 implied HN points • 30 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Investment Strategies Market Analysis Economic Policy Real Estate
  1. High housing costs are mainly due to a lack of supply rather than too much demand. Cities are struggling to provide enough homes for their growing populations.
  2. Homeownership continues to decline because of demographic shifts and a severe housing shortage. Many people are forced to share living spaces instead of owning their own homes.
  3. There is a belief that adding more housing will lead to lower prices, but it often results in the opposite effect. More housing can create a sense of instability in the market, making things feel worse for current residents.

Shocking Stats About Your Purchasing Power And The US Dollar

The Pomp Letter • 559 implied HN points • 17 Oct 24
💰 Finance Inflation Investing Cryptocurrency Market Trends
  1. The US dollar's purchasing power has decreased by 50% over the last 30 years due to inflation. This means you can buy much less with a dollar today compared to what you could in the past.
  2. Despite wage increases, the average worker is effectively earning less after adjusting for inflation. This creates a situation where even though you might see more money in your paycheck, it doesn't go as far as it used to.
  3. Many people are looking for alternative ways to store value, like Bitcoin, as traditional currencies lose purchasing power and some goods continue to rise in price.

Economics Links

In My Tribe • 394 implied HN points • 24 Dec 24
💰 Finance Macroeconomics Interest Rates Consumption Inflation Government Policy Economic Theory
  1. Cato's wish list includes ideas for government reform, like raising Social Security retirement ages. Some of these suggestions might not be politically popular, but they show a push for change from a libertarian angle.
  2. There's a big difference in how academics and policymakers view the impact of interest rates on consumption. Academics think higher rates could boost future consumption, while policymakers see them as a negative for the economy.
  3. Scott Sumner highlights the issues with measuring inflation. He argues that inflation numbers are often confusing and imprecise, which also affects how we understand productivity changes.

Top Links 603 How BATMMAAN stocks rule. Global coal keeps on rising & the US builds its first heavy ice breaker in half a century.

Chartbook • 286 implied HN points • 30 Dec 24
💰 Finance Stock Market Global Economy Investment Trends
  1. There are now 8 stocks in America that are worth over $1 trillion, often called the BATMMAAN stocks. These companies are very influential in the market.
  2. Global coal production is increasing, which shows that the demand for coal is still strong despite environmental concerns.
  3. The U.S. is building its first heavy icebreaker in 50 years. This is significant as it enhances the country's capabilities in Arctic waters.

Investment Portfolio Strategies - A Beginner's Guide (Part 1)

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 379 implied HN points • 26 Sep 24
💰 Finance Investment Strategies Risk management Portfolio Management Financial planning Market Analysis
  1. Having an investment strategy is important because it helps you reach your financial goals. It guides your decisions based on your goals, how much risk you're comfortable with, and your future needs.
  2. Different investment strategies exist, like the 60/40 portfolio which mixes stocks and bonds, or the All Weather portfolio which is built for various economic conditions. Each has its pros and cons depending on your investment style.
  3. Before investing, ask yourself key questions about your savings, future expenses, and how much risk you can handle. This will help you create a strategy that fits your personal financial situation.

Pretty Stable

The Transcript • 59 implied HN points • 28 Oct 24
💰 Finance Economy Consumer spending Monetary Policy Inflation
  1. The US economy is doing well with steady consumer spending and healthy household finances. People are still buying, even if the growth rate is slower than last year.
  2. There is a strong demand for jobs, especially for those with college degrees. Many companies are looking to hire, but the unemployment rate for skilled positions is still very low.
  3. The upcoming presidential election is creating some uncertainty in the markets. Once it's over, people expect a better outlook for economic policies.

Economics Links

In My Tribe • 455 implied HN points • 21 Dec 24
💰 Finance Economic Theory Regulation Labor Market Cryptocurrency Market Trends
  1. Academic economics has a culture that can feel snobby. Many economists avoid challenging well-known figures out of fear of seeming unimportant.
  2. The job market has changed a lot over the years, moving from agriculture to manufacturing, and now to service-based jobs. This shift reflects changes in demand and productivity.
  3. Cutting regulations can significantly lower prices, leading to increased real income for people. This could result in economic growth that exceeds what many economists expect.

CBW Fights FDIC's $20.5 Million Penalty That Could "Imperil" Its Existence

Fintech Business Weekly • 81 implied HN points • 05 Jan 25
💰 Finance Banking Regulation Investment Fintech Risk management
  1. CBW is facing a huge $20.5 million fine from the FDIC, which could put its future at risk. This penalty is due to failures in its anti-money laundering practices.
  2. A small Kansas bank, CBW, has made a lot of money from international services but hasn't fixed issues raised by regulators in past reviews. They were supposed to improve but didn't make significant changes.
  3. The FDIC argues that the situation with CBW highlights serious compliance problems in the banking sector. They are trying to enforce rules to prevent money laundering, especially in high-risk areas.

Spilled Coffee Year In Review

Spilled Coffee • 44 implied HN points • 01 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Economic Trends Financial Analysis Market Updates
  1. The most requested content from subscribers was a comprehensive list of newsletters from the past year, which was compiled into one easy post.
  2. The most read piece of the year focused on the reasons to sell stocks, highlighting that concerns about selling are always present in the market.
  3. The year-end review thanks readers for their support and encourages them to look forward to future updates and insights.