The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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​ GDP=C+G+I+NX

Points And Figures • 772 implied HN points • 04 Mar 25
💰 Finance Economics Investments Market Trends Government spending Inflation
  1. GDP is an important measure of how well an economy is doing. When GDP goes up, it usually means people are earning more and living better.
  2. Different economists have different views on government spending. Classical economists often see it as a negative thing for the economy, while Keynesians believe it can be beneficial.
  3. Current economic uncertainty affects business investment decisions, making it tough for the economy to grow. However, there are signs of recovery, like increased merger activity.

My 6 Rules of Money

The Honest Broker • 16955 implied HN points • 11 Feb 25
💰 Finance Personal Finance Wealth Management Investment Strategies Financial Literacy
  1. Money doesn't guarantee happiness. An athlete with a $100 million net worth felt miserable after retirement because he missed the purpose and routine sports provided him.
  2. Having goals and a sense of purpose is crucial for personal fulfillment. The athlete struggled to find meaning in life once he lost the structure that sports gave him.
  3. Simply having wealth can lead to a feeling of emptiness without passion or direction in life. It's important to have interests and commitments that keep you engaged beyond financial success.

The Three Types of Money Behind Silicon Valley's Rise to Dominance

The Future, Now and Then • 110 implied HN points • 25 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Speculation Economic Theory Venture Capital
  1. Silicon Valley's success relies on three types of money: government contracts, product revenues, and speculative investments. Each plays a different role in funding and shaping tech companies.
  2. Many tech stocks are driven by 'vibes' rather than actual profits. This means their value can fluctuate wildly based on investor sentiment instead of real financial performance.
  3. When speculative finance overshadows the real production of goods and services, it can lead to an unstable economy. Companies need a balance of funding sources to grow healthily and sustainably.

Portfolio Review - October 2024

The Wolf of Harcourt Street • 339 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Financial Analysis Market Trends Portfolio Management
  1. The portfolio reached a new all-time high in value, showing strong overall performance this month. This indicates good investment decisions in the recent past.
  2. Several key companies, like Visa and Meta, reported better-than-expected earnings, reinforcing their growth potential. These results contributed positively to the portfolio's success.
  3. InPost and Nubank remain as targets for investment, reflecting strategies to capitalize on their future performance. Keeping an eye on their stock movements can lead to profitable opportunities.

Top Links 653 How US asset managers are muscling into Europe. Japan restarts its reactors. Who buys guns? Mexico's energy revolution.

Chartbook • 429 implied HN points • 18 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investment Economics Global Markets Regulation Energy
  1. US asset managers are starting to play a bigger role in Europe, which could change the market dynamics there.
  2. Japan is bringing its nuclear reactors back online, impacting energy policies and production.
  3. There's a growing discussion about who is buying guns, which raises questions about safety and regulations.
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Why Is Homeowners Insurance Getting So Expensive?

Construction Physics • 35493 implied HN points • 23 Jan 25
💰 Finance Insurance Economics Real Estate Risk management Climate Impact Homeownership
  1. Homeowners insurance costs have risen a lot over the past years, with a 33% average increase between 2020 and 2023. This has made it tough for many to afford insurance, leading some to rely on state-backed options.
  2. While rising construction costs and home sizes explain part of the increase, climate change and more frequent severe weather events are likely major factors driving up insurance prices further.
  3. Interestingly, even though some types of damage have become less frequent, the cost to repair them has increased, particularly for wind, hail, and water damage, which contribute significantly to higher insurance losses.

How You Would Prepare for a Financial Collapse in The Near Term

OK Doomer • 176 implied HN points • 02 Mar 25
💰 Finance Investing Economic Policy Personal Finance Market Trends Crisis Management
  1. It's important to prepare for financial uncertainties because the economy can change quickly. Think about what you would need if you suddenly couldn't access your money.
  2. Many people can't just drop everything and move to the woods to escape problems. Most of us have jobs and families, so we need practical solutions for city life.
  3. Consider stocking up on essentials like food and water. Being ready for the unexpected can give you peace of mind in uncertain times.

Economics Roundup #5

Don't Worry About the Vase • 1836 implied HN points • 25 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economics Taxation Investment Debt Trade
  1. Many people believe that average tax rates and structures are unfair or ineffective. This could mean that policies need to evolve to better meet people's needs without creating high penalties for earning more.
  2. Trade barriers impact economic growth negatively, as they create higher costs in trade and limit opportunity for development across regions, both domestically and internationally.
  3. Access to credit can significantly influence people's financial wellbeing. If restrictions are placed on credit availability, it can harm those who are already struggling financially.

The Pettis Paradigm and the Second China Shock

Noahpinion • 16059 implied HN points • 16 Jan 25
💰 Finance International Trade Macroeconomics Economic Policy
  1. China has a large trade surplus, which is complex and not solely based on traditional economic theories. Many think its economy is getting help through government loans and subsidies.
  2. There are many opinions on how to deal with China's trade practices, especially the idea of using tariffs. Some believe that tariffs can help change China's focus from exporting to better domestic consumption.
  3. Economics is complicated, and experts often disagree on how to fix trade issues. Current solutions might not work as intended, and some past policies have not improved the situation as hoped.

Infographics: Centrally Cleared U.S. Treasury Market Flows

Concoda • 178 implied HN points • 13 Jun 25
💰 Finance Market Trends Trading Investments Economy Monetary Policy
  1. The U.S. Treasury market uses a central counterparty to manage trades. This helps ensure that transactions are processed smoothly and securely.
  2. Understanding the flow of money in the U.S. Treasury market is important for seeing how the economy functions. It gives insights into larger financial trends.
  3. Infographics can help simplify complex information about the Treasury market, making it easier to understand for everyone. Visuals often make learning about finance more accessible.

What would you do if you had pizza money?

Tech and Tea • 263 implied HN points • 20 Feb 25
💰 Finance Personal Finance Financial Independence Investing Wealth Management
  1. The pizza money scenario encourages people to think about their relationship with money and what they're willing to sacrifice for financial independence. It reveals whether people prioritize financial gain or their daily comfort.
  2. Responses to the pizza question vary widely, showing that some people are focused on maximizing wealth while others prefer to maintain their lifestyle. This highlights how different priorities shape our choices.
  3. The absurdity of the situation helps clarify what truly matters in life. It encourages introspection and helps people identify their values, leading to better alignment between life choices and personal goals.

Yes, Americans are much richer than Japanese people

Noahpinion • 28353 implied HN points • 24 Dec 24
💰 Finance Economics Wealth Income
  1. Americans generally have a higher standard of living compared to Japanese people, especially when you look at their salaries. Even though Japan has a strong economy, many people earn significantly less than their American counterparts, especially for starting jobs.
  2. Living standards in Japan might seem appealing due to factors like safety and good public transportation, but these benefits can be overshadowed by long working hours and less leisure time. While Japan is safe and has beautiful cities, many people still work hard and face economic struggles.
  3. While GDP can show how wealthy a country is, it doesn't capture everything about quality of life. Americans have access to more modern conveniences and have higher average salaries, but Japan offers a safer and healthier living environment, which makes comparing them more complicated.

How do we measure whether China's economy is "ahead" of America's?

Noahpinion • 20059 implied HN points • 04 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economics Trade GDP Currency Growth
  1. There are different ways to measure the size of economies, like using nominal GDP or purchasing power parity (PPP). Depending on the method, we can get very different perspectives on whether China's economy is ahead of America's.
  2. The exchange rate can change the perception of an economy's size, especially if a country's currency is weak. If China's yuan strengthens, it could suddenly appear larger than the U.S. economy in nominal terms.
  3. When comparing economies, it's important to consider local prices and living standards. For a more accurate view of how people live and what they can afford, using PPP is crucial despite its complexity and potential inaccuracies.

Top Links 649 Dollar overvaluation. Ethiopia's precarious economic reforms. Kashmir and panzootic threats.

Chartbook • 329 implied HN points • 14 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economics Global Trade Market Trends Financial Policy
  1. The dollar is currently overvalued, which could have serious economic impacts. This means that the dollar's strength might not reflect the true value of the economy.
  2. Ethiopia is facing challenges with its economic reforms. These reforms are crucial for the country's future stability and growth.
  3. Kashmir is experiencing threats from panzootic diseases. This situation poses risks to both human health and local wildlife.

Are Economic Worries Overblown?

Spilled Coffee • 36 implied HN points • 05 Mar 25
💰 Finance Economics Investing Market Trends Home Sales Policy Impact
  1. The U.S. stock market is down, with the S&P 500 dropping 6% this year due to economic worries. Many people are feeling uncertain about the economy right now.
  2. Pending home sales in the U.S. have hit an all-time low, even worse than during the 2008 financial crisis and COVID-19. This is a significant sign of trouble in the housing market.
  3. There is a lot of volatility in the financial markets due to government changes and spending cuts, creating questions about whether current market conditions are a good buying opportunity.

Trading Catastrophe

Net Interest • 5 implied HN points • 21 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Insurance Risk management Capital Markets Asset Classes
  1. Hurricane Andrew changed how insurers think about risks. They realized they needed better coverage and to assess risk differently.
  2. Catastrophe bonds, or cat bonds, became popular after Hurricane Andrew. They allow investors to earn interest while helping insurers cover major losses.
  3. Today, cat bonds are expanding into retail markets, making them accessible to everyday investors. They have shown good returns, even as disasters become more frequent.

Goldman Sachs Thinks We Will Have A Decade-Long Bear Market — I Disagree With Them

The Pomp Letter • 839 implied HN points • 22 Oct 24
💰 Finance Investments Market Trends Economic Policy Debt Management Predictions
  1. Goldman Sachs predicts a long bear market for the next decade, but some believe we're actually in a bull market. Data suggests stocks could do well in the near future.
  2. The U.S. is facing a significant increase in national debt, which affects the economy. This surge in debt could lead to currency devaluation.
  3. Long-term, the impact of currency debasement will overshadow other economic factors, like stock valuations. It’s important to stay aware of these financial trends.

The Fed's Secret Confession: The Beige Book Reveals a Troubling US Economy

COVID Reason • 436 implied HN points • 25 Oct 24
💰 Finance Economic Trends Market Analysis Central Banks Consumer behavior Global Economy
  1. The recent Beige Book shows that the U.S. economy is actually slowing down, not improving. Many regions reported economic decline, especially in manufacturing.
  2. There are rising concerns about job security and consumer spending. People are cutting back on spending due to financial worries and many companies are freezing hiring.
  3. Global economic issues are also affecting the U.S. market. Weak demand for products and looming recession signals are worrying for businesses and consumers alike.

Macroeconomics: The predator of foolish regimes

Noahpinion • 19353 implied HN points • 19 Dec 24
💰 Finance Macroeconomics Debt Management Economic Policy Socialism
  1. Bad economic decisions, like keeping currency overvalued or borrowing too much in foreign currency, can lead to big problems for any government. This can happen regardless of whether a country is socialist or capitalist.
  2. Countries often face different types of economic crises. For example, some might deal with inflation while others face deflation, and they need to respond differently to fix these situations.
  3. Leaders who think they can control the economy through micromanaging are usually getting it wrong. Big economic problems need big-picture solutions.

Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in January; Up 3.9% Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 28 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic Indicators Housing Market
  1. The Freddie Mac House Price Index went up by 3.9% over the last year, showing that home prices are generally on the rise again.
  2. Many cities in Florida are experiencing significant price declines, with four of the six cities having the largest drops in home values.
  3. As housing inventory grows and sales remain low, it's expected that the growth in home prices could slow down in 2025.

Economists and Price/Rent Ratios

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 189 implied HN points • 26 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Economics Market Analysis Investment Housing policy
  1. Most economists think that price/rent ratios should stay the same over time. But actually, changes in rents are what mostly drive these ratios.
  2. A big reason the housing market is often misunderstood is because economists don’t factor in how much access to mortgages has changed since 2008.
  3. Rents have been rising faster than other costs, which affects home prices. This key point is often overlooked, meaning many people are missing out on important trading opportunities.

Stocks I'm Watching As The Market Sells Off

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 18 implied HN points • 28 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Risk management Economic Analysis
  1. The stock market has recently seen a drop, and many analysts still insist it's always a good time to buy, regardless of prices. This seems unrealistic, especially when many factors suggest selling might be a better option.
  2. Big companies like Apple and Amazon significantly influence the stock market, while retail investors are often trading options instead of actual stocks. This creates a speculative environment where many aren't looking for real value.
  3. Despite market challenges, there are still opportunities to find valuable investments that aren't being highlighted in mainstream financial media. It's important to look for these hidden gems amid all the noise.

Money Market Update

Concoda • 243 implied HN points • 09 Jun 25
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investment Strategies Economic Trends Bond Market
  1. The money market is currently stable, with dealers holding more U.S. Treasuries. This might lead to more relaxed conditions in the market.
  2. Investors are not as worried about future issues with T-bills as they were during the previous debt ceiling crisis. This suggests a more confident market outlook.
  3. Upcoming auctions of longer-term bonds are expected to attract foreign investors, which could positively impact yields despite fears about rising rates.

Running on Empty

The Last Bear Standing • 32 implied HN points • 14 Feb 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Banking Liquidity Interest Rates Economic Trends
  1. The Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction is mostly just moving money around rather than actually reducing the money supply. This means the impact on inflation might not be as significant as it seems.
  2. The Reverse Repo Facility, which helps maintain liquidity in financial markets, is running low. As it decreases, there could be less stability in short-term funding.
  3. While some people say the situation is either a disaster or not a problem at all, it's more complex. We might see tighter banking conditions and more market volatility as the Fed continues its quantitative tightening efforts.

Earnings: Optics(COHR, FN, LITE), Soitec, IFX, SWKS, ONTO, ENTG

Mule’s Musings • 173 implied HN points • 12 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Earnings Markets Analysis Reports
  1. The earnings reports for companies in the optics sector, such as COHR and FN, are being discussed. This means their financial performance is being analyzed.
  2. Soitec, IFX, SWKS, ONTO, and ENTG are also mentioned, indicating they are part of the earnings updates. These companies are likely in the tech or semiconductor industry.
  3. This information is geared towards paid subscribers, suggesting a focus on a niche audience interested in detailed financial insights.

New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 26 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic Indicators Housing supply Sales Data
  1. New home sales dropped to an annual rate of 657,000 in January, marking a decline from previous months. This shows a slowdown in the housing market compared to last year.
  2. The average price of new homes has decreased by 5.8% from its highest point due to changes in what types of homes are selling.
  3. There is a high inventory of homes available, with a supply of 9 months, which is more than the usual range of 4 to 6 months. This indicates more choices for buyers but also suggests a slower market.

The Bear Cave #259

The Bear Cave • 513 implied HN points • 02 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Corporate Governance Financial regulation
  1. New reports from activist investors reveal concerns about companies like Mercury General and FTAI Aviation. These reports suggest significant financial issues and mismanagement that could affect stock prices.
  2. There's a new tool called FOIAsearch.com that makes it easier to find information about SEC investigations and FOIA requests. This can help investors spot potential problems in companies earlier.
  3. Recent executive resignations in companies like Compass Minerals and NextEra Energy indicate instability. Frequent leadership changes can create uncertainty about the company's future.

How Will Financial Scams Affect Big Business in 2025?

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 1326 implied HN points • 31 Jan 25
💰 Finance Scams Economics Market Trends Financial Technology
  1. Financial scams are expected to impact big businesses in various ways by 2025. Companies will need to be more aware of these risks.
  2. There will be discussions on how different sectors, like private equity and tech, handle these scams. These sectors are likely to face unique challenges.
  3. A virtual summit is happening where experts will talk about these trends and share insights. It's a chance for everyone to learn and ask questions.

Shocking Stats About Your Purchasing Power And The US Dollar

The Pomp Letter • 559 implied HN points • 17 Oct 24
💰 Finance Inflation Investing Cryptocurrency Market Trends
  1. The US dollar's purchasing power has decreased by 50% over the last 30 years due to inflation. This means you can buy much less with a dollar today compared to what you could in the past.
  2. Despite wage increases, the average worker is effectively earning less after adjusting for inflation. This creates a situation where even though you might see more money in your paycheck, it doesn't go as far as it used to.
  3. Many people are looking for alternative ways to store value, like Bitcoin, as traditional currencies lose purchasing power and some goods continue to rise in price.

Top Links 637 America's trade deficits. The robots are coming. Israeli defense exports & Khian Sea - the toxic ship.

Chartbook • 615 implied HN points • 02 Feb 25
💰 Finance Technology Environmental Issues Global Economy
  1. America has a significant trade deficit, which means it imports more than it exports. This impacts the economy and job market.
  2. The rise of robots and automation is changing the workforce. Many fear job losses, but there are also opportunities for new types of work.
  3. Israel is a major player in defense exports, showing how countries invest in their military technology.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 27 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic Analysis Housing Affordability
  1. House prices are currently about 1% lower than their peak in 2022 when adjusted for inflation. This means prices are still quite high compared to the past.
  2. The price-to-rent ratio is around 7.7% lower than the 2022 peak. This could mean it's more expensive to buy a house than to rent in some areas.
  3. Real house prices have generally been increasing over time, but it's been a while since they have hit new highs. Experts think prices may stay flat or slightly decline in the near future.

Top Links 638 The credit card racket. Why Trump wants Greenland. The cislunar economy & the age of the gas mask.

Chartbook • 529 implied HN points • 03 Feb 25
💰 Finance Credit Cards Economy Debt Interest Rates Global Trade
  1. Credit card interest rates in the US can be very high, over 22%, which can be a heavy burden for people carrying balances. It's important to be aware of these costs.
  2. There are discussions around various topics, like why Trump has an interest in Greenland, showing how geopolitics can be tied to business and resources.
  3. The emerging cislunar economy reflects the growing importance of space and its potential impact on our economy and society, underlining how innovation stretches beyond Earth.

Investment Portfolio Strategies - A Beginner's Guide (Part 1)

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 379 implied HN points • 26 Sep 24
💰 Finance Investment Strategies Risk management Portfolio Management Financial planning Market Analysis
  1. Having an investment strategy is important because it helps you reach your financial goals. It guides your decisions based on your goals, how much risk you're comfortable with, and your future needs.
  2. Different investment strategies exist, like the 60/40 portfolio which mixes stocks and bonds, or the All Weather portfolio which is built for various economic conditions. Each has its pros and cons depending on your investment style.
  3. Before investing, ask yourself key questions about your savings, future expenses, and how much risk you can handle. This will help you create a strategy that fits your personal financial situation.

Chartbook 348 Dollar-like: eurodollars, crypto and the future of global money.

Chartbook • 1101 implied HN points • 25 Jan 25
💰 Finance Global Economics Cryptocurrency Monetary Policy International Trade
  1. Eurodollars are dollars held and used outside the US, which allow businesses around the world to conduct transactions without relying solely on the US banking system. This system grew because companies wanted to avoid US regulations and sanctions.
  2. Stablecoins, like eurodollars, are dollar-linked assets that facilitate transactions, providing a bridge between cryptocurrency and traditional money. They promise to maintain a value equal to the US dollar, similar to how eurodollars work.
  3. The future of stablecoins may involve replacing eurodollars in global finance, but their stability and growth depend on stronger backing systems and regulatory support to avoid issues that have affected both eurodollars and cryptocurrencies.

[P] SPHR: Sphere-Priced Incentives

Nongaap Investing • 2 implied HN points • 23 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Markets Stocks Economics Analysis
  1. Sphere-Priced Incentives are a new way to evaluate investments. They help in making decisions based on a specific pricing strategy.
  2. Understanding the risks can help in deciding whether to invest or not. We often find ourselves in tough situations when choosing these options.
  3. Paid subscriptions provide deeper insights into investing strategies. It's a good idea for those serious about improving their investment knowledge.

A Nothing Burger

Points And Figures • 692 implied HN points • 13 Feb 25
💰 Finance Trading Market Analysis Investment Banking Financial Strategy
  1. Moving the NYSE Chicago to Texas isn't a big deal in finance. It won't change how trading really works since most of it happens off the main exchanges anyway.
  2. Chicago's financial industry is struggling, with fewer major banks and investment firms. Many professionals believe Dallas is becoming a better place for finance careers.
  3. Texas is improving its business environment with low taxes and better competition for financial firms. This may help cities like Dallas attract more businesses and talent.

Pretty Stable

The Transcript • 59 implied HN points • 28 Oct 24
💰 Finance Economy Consumer spending Monetary Policy Deficits Inflation
  1. The US economy is doing well with steady consumer spending and healthy household finances. People are still buying, even if the growth rate is slower than last year.
  2. There is a strong demand for jobs, especially for those with college degrees. Many companies are looking to hire, but the unemployment rate for skilled positions is still very low.
  3. The upcoming presidential election is creating some uncertainty in the markets. Once it's over, people expect a better outlook for economic policies.

Top Links 641 The UK's trade deficit with the US. Low-income growth in the USA. How electrification stalled. "M: son of the century" and "The new us".

Chartbook • 314 implied HN points • 06 Feb 25
💰 Finance Trade Economics Deficits Income Growth
  1. The UK has a unique trade relationship where it imports more from the US than it exports, leading to a trade deficit. This is unusual for a developed country.
  2. Low-income growth in the USA is a significant issue, highlighting economic challenges faced by many. It's affecting overall prosperity and living standards.
  3. Electrification efforts have hit a roadblock, indicating that progress in energy transition is not happening as fast as needed. This could impact future sustainability initiatives.