The hottest Future scenarios Substack posts right now

There may be a tug-of-war between AI-led productivity gains and the budget impacts of retirees and falling population growth.
The analysis examines key megatrends like technology, demographics, fiscal deficits, globalization, and energy transitions.
Two scenarios are presented: One where aging population and retirees limit growth, and another where productivity surges through AI-led automation.

Russia is prepared to face direct NATO intervention in the war.
Russian military strategy involves shortening their lines and preparing reserves.
US/NATO intervention in the Ukraine war would be unwise and unlikely to defeat Russia.

Historian Neil Howe predicts a significant shift in America's society and governance, likening it to previous generational historical cycles.
Howe's model suggests a coming crisis leading to the birth of a new national order, potentially involving revolutionary regime change and great societal transformation.
The book presents an optimistic outlook for America's future after the impending crisis, envisioning a new golden age albeit with concerns about potential outcomes and implications.

People are using AI like ChatGPT to do multiple jobs more efficiently.
Compensation in jobs is often based on social dynamics and comparisons.
Options like pursuing equity or taking on multiple jobs can be considered for higher pay.

California Senate Bill 1047 aims to regulate AI to maintain public trust, especially since Congress is often dysfunctional.
The bill establishes safety standards for large AI systems, provides public AI resources, and aims to prevent price discrimination and protect whistleblowers.
The bill's focus is on safety and innovation without excessively burdening developers, but potential loopholes could allow avoidance of its regulations.

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Transition from minimizing harms to transforming sociotechnical systems.
Mindset shifts needed: view technology as entangled in social systems, acknowledge complex dynamics, articulate radical new futures.
Explore framing, metaphors, complex systems, and alternative futures to understand AI better.

AGI development is underway, with research focusing on autonomy, creativity, and reasoning.
An AGI beyond human level could lead to abundant possibilities but also poses real risks.
The BGI Summit & Unconference aims to bring diverse perspectives together to shape a beneficial future with AGI.