Assault of Thoughts

Assault of Thoughts explores the intersections of sport, finance, and economics, offering analysis on various issues like market dynamics, policy impacts on economies, and public health responses. It combines theoretical insights with practical examples, providing a comprehensive look at contemporary economic and financial debates.

Economic Theory Financial Markets Public Health and Policy Demographics and Economics Investment Strategies Risk Management Behavioral Economics

The hottest Substack posts of Assault of Thoughts

And their main takeaways

The Return of the Bond Market Vigilantes

58 implied HN points • 18 Oct 22
  1. Bond market investors react quickly to fiscal policies
  2. Market dynamics show the importance of future budget surpluses
  3. Rising bond yields globally due to reduction in central bank bond purchases

Difficult Life Decision? Try Flipping a Coin

78 implied HN points • 01 Mar 21
  1. Making a change in a difficult decision can lead to increased happiness.
  2. There is a bias against making changes in important life decisions.
  3. Experimenting more can lead to discovering better alternatives and breaking rigid habits.

How Did Epidemiologists Get It So Wrong? Part 3 of 3

39 implied HN points • 04 Oct 21
  1. Epidemiologists often overestimate the impact of policies on pandemics.
  2. They tend to overlook the influence of non-policy behaviors on controlling disease spread.
  3. Epidemiologists exhibit exaggerated confidence levels in their forecasts, leading to inaccurate predictions.

There Is No Immorality In Going Short

58 implied HN points • 01 Feb 21
  1. Short-selling can lead to market manipulation as seen in recent events with GameStop.
  2. Regulating short-selling can have negative consequences, reducing market efficiency and price discovery.
  3. Allowing short-selling may actually benefit markets by increasing transparency and preventing bubbles.

A Brief Primer on Omicron and the Best Films of 2021

19 implied HN points • 06 Dec 21
  1. Omicron seems to have a transmission advantage over Delta.
  2. Omicron might be able to evade natural immunity but uncertainty remains on its effect on vaccine-induced immunity.
  3. Initial signs suggest that Omicron could be a milder variant.
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Is Inflation a Problem in the UK?

19 implied HN points • 01 Nov 21
  1. UK inflation has risen above 3%, a concerning level
  2. Inflation can be a result of global economic restart post-pandemic
  3. Balancing inflation and unemployment is a challenge for central banks

Man Bites Dog – Developing a Measure of News Concentration

19 implied HN points • 04 May 21
  1. News tends to focus on rare events, leading to distortionary impacts on decision making.
  2. High news concentration affects the economy, with significant impacts on production, consumption, and employment.
  3. Continued travel restrictions may not be effective in preventing new variants, and could have negative consequences for families, the aerospace industry, and global vaccine distribution.

Getting to the Root of the UK's Problematic Covid-19 Response

19 implied HN points • 06 Apr 21
  1. The UK's Covid-19 response had problematic decision-making, like the delay in recommending mask-wearing.
  2. Decision-making in a crisis should consider Bayesian approaches over dogmatic frequentist ones.
  3. Not pausing the AstraZeneca vaccine would have been a better decision based on Bayesian analysis.

Whither DSGE Estimation?

1 HN point • 08 Nov 22
  1. DSGE models have faced criticism, but many critiques have been incorporated over the past decade.
  2. A recent critique suggests issues in the process of estimating DSGE models, particularly related to parameter estimations.
  3. Interdisciplinary critiques can provide valuable fresh perspectives, but may sometimes miss key aspects of the field being critiqued.

Some Unpleasant Demographic Arithmetic: Part I

0 implied HN points • 21 Jun 23
🌍 World Politics Demographics Economy Healthcare Society History
  1. The demographic structure of society is changing from a pyramid to a column or inverted pyramid due to decreasing fertility and increasing longevity.
  2. Demographic projections show a significant increase in the elderly population, posing challenges in healthcare, workforce, and productivity growth.
  3. The shift towards an older population will impact GDP growth, asset returns, the size of the state, and other economic variables in the future.

A monthly newsletter at the intersection of sport, finance and economics

0 implied HN points • 25 Jan 21
  1. Andy Preston's newsletter focuses on the overlap of sport, finance, and economics.
  2. The content is written in a non-technical manner, appealing to a wide audience beyond experts.
  3. Andy Preston, a PhD student at UCL, shares insights on applying economics and finance to sports and life.

The Base Rate Fallacy and Misleading Covid Statistics

0 implied HN points • 05 Jul 21
  1. Misleading statistics can make it seem like Covid vaccines are not effective, but they are still working well, especially against severe outcomes like hospitalization and death.
  2. The base rate fallacy can lead to misunderstandings when interpreting statistics, where the probability of an event occurring in a group should consider the percentage of that group in the total population.
  3. As the population vaccination rate increases, the proportion of cases among vaccinated individuals may also rise, but it doesn't diminish the effectiveness of the vaccines in preventing severe Covid outcomes.

How Did Epidemiologists Get It So Wrong? Part 2 of 3

0 implied HN points • 06 Sep 21
  1. Epidemiologists may have over-estimated the impact of policies on controlling the pandemic.
  2. There was not enough emphasis on voluntary behavioral changes in reducing virus transmission.
  3. Confidence levels in making pandemic forecasts were often exaggerated.

A Look at the Stock Market, the Value Premium and Crypto Prices in 2022

0 implied HN points • 31 Jan 22
  1. Investing in a broad-based index fund instead of individual stocks is a prudent approach for most people.
  2. The value premium, where value stocks outperform expectations, has been consistent over time despite some anomalies.
  3. Value investing might offer slightly higher risk-adjusted returns, especially if a shift towards higher inflation and interest rates occurs.

Attempting to Forecast UK Inflation

0 implied HN points • 11 Jul 22
  1. The current high inflation in the UK is primarily attributed to supply shocks rather than demand shocks.
  2. The model used estimates a flat Phillips curve, meaning changes in the output gap have a muted impact on inflation.
  3. The model does not forecast a significant increase in inflation or a recession, but there is a lot of uncertainty regarding future outcomes and monetary policy's ability to control inflation.

How Did Epidemiologists Get It So Wrong? Part 1 of 2

0 implied HN points • 02 Aug 21
  1. Epidemiologists have over-estimated the impact of policy on the dynamics of the pandemic.
  2. There is a lack of emphasis on non-policy induced behavioral changes as a mechanism for reducing transmission.
  3. Epidemiologists have exaggerated confidence levels in making forecasts.

Against Nuclear Brinksmanship

0 implied HN points • 23 Mar 22
  1. The world has been lucky to avoid nuclear conflict since the Cuban missile crisis in the 1960s.
  2. The idea of declaring a no-fly zone over Ukraine could escalate quickly to world war 3.
  3. Calculations show that risk-averse decision-makers would avoid actions that could lead to nuclear war.

The Brahmin Left and the Merchant Right

0 implied HN points • 01 Jun 21
  1. The relationship between education, income, and voting choices is becoming more complex.
  2. There is a shift towards high-income elites voting for right-wing parties and high-education elites voting for left-wing parties.
  3. Increased education levels and skill-biased technological change are influencing voting trends in Western democracies.

Why Does the Last Leg of Accumulator Bets Let People Down So Often?

0 implied HN points • 23 Aug 22
  1. Probability can be counterintuitive, like in the Monty Hall problem where changing your guess increases your chances.
  2. Conditional probability, like the last leg in accumulators, can be tricky and lead to unexpected outcomes.
  3. Teaching probability in schools can help people better understand complex scenarios and prevent misinterpretations like the base rate fallacy.