The hottest Economy Substack posts right now

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The best-case scenario for Trump's second term

Noahpinion • 21882 implied HN points • 28 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Government Policies Trump Economy
  1. The economy could keep growing, leading to better wages for workers. If Trump doesn't interfere too much, this growth might continue.
  2. Political unrest may decrease, as many people seem tired of constant outrage. Americans might become more chill and tune out extreme movements on both sides.
  3. Trump might keep some successful policies from Biden while making adjustments. This could boost American industry without causing a lot of controversy.

The Media's Mental Gymnastics Before Election Day

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 1159 implied HN points • 02 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Media Elections Public Opinion Political Commentary Economy
  1. The media often interprets statements from public figures differently depending on their political stance. They might exaggerate comments from one side while downplaying those from another.
  2. There have been significant issues with job growth lately, with reports showing a very low number of jobs created. Most of the new jobs have been in government, which doesn't help the overall economy much.
  3. As the election approaches, media coverage tends to focus on distractions instead of important economic issues. This affects how voters perceive the situation.

VINDICATED! (sadly). The govt can no longer hide the decline in jobs

COVID Reason • 812 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Employment Economy Government Labor Market Public Policy
  1. Job losses in the private sector are alarming, with 28,000 jobs lost, especially in manufacturing and retail. This shows a real problem in the economy.
  2. Government jobs increased by 40,000, which may cover up serious issues in other job sectors. This is a sign the economy isn't as strong as it looks.
  3. The labor force is shrinking, with many not participating anymore and unemployment rising. This trend is not sustainable and needs urgent attention.

Top Links 563 Trump and the world economy. Why the energy transition might be cheaper than we think. Protracted war in the Philippines.

Chartbook • 286 implied HN points • 17 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy Energy War International relations Trump
  1. Trump's decisions can greatly affect the world economy. It's important to understand how political actions influence global markets.
  2. Transitioning to clean energy might be more affordable than many believe. New technologies and strategies can help lower costs.
  3. The ongoing conflict in the Philippines is complex and has lasting implications. It shows how prolonged wars can affect both local and international stability.

How Trump will actually turn America into the 'garbage can of the world'

The Signorile Report • 1478 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Economy Policy Government Media
  1. If Trump wins, he may give Elon Musk the power to cut $2 trillion in federal spending, which could hurt many Americans by affecting key programs like Social Security and Medicare.
  2. Companies are getting ready to raise prices due to Trump's planned tariffs on foreign goods, which could add to inflation just as it starts to ease.
  3. Overall, Trump's policies might undo the strong economy built during Biden's presidency, potentially turning the U.S. into a less favorable place for everyday people.
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Thinking about "temporary hardship"

Noahpinion • 12823 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy Government Public Policy
  1. The US economy is doing well, but the government has high borrowing and deficits that need to be addressed. People are worried about rising interest costs eating into the budget.
  2. Elon Musk is suggesting big cuts to federal spending to help reduce the deficit, which could lead to temporary economic hardship for many. This has raised questions about how much pain people might actually feel if these cuts happen.
  3. There's a debate over the best way to handle spending cuts and taxes. Some believe there are better methods to manage these changes without causing so much impact on everyday people, especially the poor and middle class.

URGENT: The CEO of UnitedHealthcare - the largest private health insurance company in America - was just shot and killed in Manhattan in an apparent assassination

Unreported Truths • 57 implied HN points • 04 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Crime Healthcare Economy Corporate News Public Safety
  1. The CEO of UnitedHealthcare, Brian Thompson, was assassinated in New York City. This event is shocking given that he was a high-profile executive.
  2. Thompson was shot outside a hotel during a financial conference, indicating that the attack was likely planned and targeted.
  3. His assassination raises concerns about the safety of executives and the potential backlash against health insurance leaders over care denials.

The Lamplighter Problem

Jeff Giesea • 718 implied HN points • 22 Oct 24
🕹 Technology AI Automation Labor Economy Politics
  1. AI is likely to displace a huge number of jobs, similar to how lamplighters lost their roles when electric lights came in. We need to prepare for these changes now to help people transition to new work.
  2. The Lamplighter Problem shows us that job loss due to automation is not just an economic issue but also a political and social one. If we don’t address it, it could lead to bigger problems in society.
  3. There are different opinions on how to handle the rise of AI. Some people think we should slow down and reconsider, while others want to speed up its development. We need to find a balanced approach that helps everyone.

⏩ Trump’s 3% growth challenge

Faster, Please! • 274 implied HN points • 25 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy Growth Policy Regulations Finance
  1. Scott Bessent wants to boost the economy by achieving a 3% growth rate, reducing the federal budget deficit, and increasing oil production. This approach is part of a bigger plan for economic improvement.
  2. Historically, the US economy grew at over 3% after World War II, but recent growth has been slower. Bessent’s goal is to restore that higher growth rate.
  3. The challenge for Bessent and Trump is that the current US GDP growth has been a full point less than the historical average this century.

Pretty Stable

The Transcript • 59 implied HN points • 28 Oct 24
💰 Finance Economy Consumer spending Monetary Policy Inflation
  1. The US economy is doing well with steady consumer spending and healthy household finances. People are still buying, even if the growth rate is slower than last year.
  2. There is a strong demand for jobs, especially for those with college degrees. Many companies are looking to hire, but the unemployment rate for skilled positions is still very low.
  3. The upcoming presidential election is creating some uncertainty in the markets. Once it's over, people expect a better outlook for economic policies.

⤴⤵ Up Wing/Down Wing #24

Faster, Please! • 822 implied HN points • 09 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Immigration Healthcare Economy Technology Environment
  1. Immigrants have helped revive industries in areas like Dalton, Georgia. This shows how immigration can boost local economies and create job opportunities.
  2. New gene-editing technologies like CRISPR are making crops and livestock better at surviving climate change. This could help ensure our food supply stays strong despite changing weather.
  3. Robots in nursing homes are improving care quality and staff retention. They take over routine tasks, allowing human workers to focus more on giving personal care.

November 25, 2024

Letters from an American • 17 implied HN points • 26 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Policies Economy Administration Legislation
  1. President Biden's economic policies focus on investing in infrastructure and creating jobs, aiming to grow the economy from the middle out rather than the top down.
  2. The incoming Trump administration plans to cut taxes for the wealthy and reduce regulations, which could shift the tax burden onto lower-income families.
  3. Many of Trump’s administration picks are billionaires, raising concerns about potential conflicts of interest and whether policies will favor the ultra-wealthy over ordinary Americans.

Top Links 547 America's huge trade deficit. Hedge funds bet against green. Bout & the Houthis & the grate (sic) cheese robbery.

Chartbook • 357 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24
💰 Finance Trade Investments Economy Hedge Funds
  1. America's trade deficit widened significantly in September, which means the country is buying way more from other countries than it's selling.
  2. Hedge funds are making big bets against green investments, which suggests they believe these investments won't perform well in the future.
  3. There was a strange robbery involving 'grate cheese' and the Houthis, showing how unusual events can grab attention in the news.

Feeble Jobs Report

Points And Figures • 1039 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy Employment Government Elections Policy
  1. The recent jobs report shows a big reliance on government jobs, which many think is not a good sign for the economy. Without these jobs, things would look much worse.
  2. Government spending isn't really helping the economy grow. Taxes and debt fund this spending, but they don't create real jobs in the private sector.
  3. A potential change in leadership could mean a big cut in government jobs, which might lead to more opportunities in private industry instead.

Top Links 543 French billionaires. CGT election panel. America's manufacturing disasters & plunging global fertility.

Chartbook • 371 implied HN points • 27 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy Elections Manufacturing Demographics Billionaires
  1. There are 543 billionaires in France, which shows a significant level of wealth concentration in the country. This number can spark discussions about wealth distribution and economic policies.
  2. America is facing major challenges in its manufacturing sector, leading to concerns about economic stability and job security. Understanding these issues can help us think about the future of work and industry.
  3. Global fertility rates are declining, which could have long-term effects on population growth and economic dynamics. This trend raises important questions about family planning and societal changes.

Sowing Solidarity: How Lebanon’s Wineries Remain Rooted

Vittles • 159 implied HN points • 11 Nov 24
🍲 Food & Drink Wine Culture Environment Economy Agriculture
  1. Lebanon's wineries are facing tough times due to conflict and destruction. Many winemakers are shifting their focus from producing wine to supporting their communities.
  2. The connection to the land is really important for these winemakers. They feel a strong pride in their heritage and want to preserve their agricultural traditions amidst the chaos.
  3. Support from abroad is crucial for the survival of Lebanon's wine industry. Winemakers need strong export partnerships to keep their businesses alive as local markets struggle.

2034 – A Day in the Working Life

Workforce Futurist by Andy Spence • 488 implied HN points • 30 Oct 24
💼 Business Workforce Technology Economy Education Innovation Future of work
  1. In 2034, people have a Lifelong Learning Wallet to improve their skills without the burden of debt. This allows everyone to access education based on their abilities, not their financial situation.
  2. Work has become flexible and collaborative, with projects matching people's skills and interests. Workers earn digital tokens for their contributions, which helps them feel more connected and motivated.
  3. Society now values all contributions, including care work, and uses technology to fairly distribute resources. This new system supports faster solutions to pressing issues like climate change and health crises.

Preliminary 2025 Housing Forecasts

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 22 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Economy Real Estate Forecasting
  1. Housing prices are expected to rise a little in 2025, but not by much. People think the increase will be in the low to mid single digits.
  2. Sales of new and existing homes are predicted to go up next year. However, existing home sales will likely stay around four million.
  3. The construction of multi-family homes is not expected to improve in 2025. Builders are generally cautious about starting new multi-family projects.

Earnings: TSMC, ASML, AEHR, Telecom

Mule’s Musings • 417 implied HN points • 20 Oct 24
💼 Business Finance Investing Market Analysis Technology Economy
  1. ASML's recent earnings revealed a drop in orders and concerns about future growth, particularly due to challenges in their Chinese market and demand from major clients like Samsung and Intel.
  2. TSMC reported strong earnings with high demand for AI-related products and plans for significant capital investment, showing confidence in their growth despite market fears.
  3. The semiconductor industry is facing a shift, with lithography spending likely slowing down, but both ASML and TSMC are positioned to adapt to these changes for future growth.

Plentiful, high-paying jobs in the age of AI

Noahpinion • 20235 implied HN points • 17 Mar 24
🕹 Technology AI Jobs Economy Automation Opportunity Cost
  1. The concept of comparative advantage means that even in a world where AI outperforms humans in many tasks, humans can still find plentiful, high-paying jobs by focusing on what they do relatively better compared to other tasks.
  2. Wages have historically increased despite automation, suggesting that the job market continuously evolves and diversifies, creating new tasks for humans to perform.
  3. Concerns about AI causing human obsolescence and stagnant wages should be considered in the context of factors like energy constraints and the potential for increased inequality and adjustment challenges in the economy.

Neolib Zombies

Magic + Loss • 417 implied HN points • 03 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policies Economy Identity Globalization Government
  1. Neoliberalism has changed how we see ourselves, turning us from citizens into consumers and investors. This shift impacts our values and priorities in society.
  2. Since Reagan's presidency, neoliberal ideas have focused more on market concerns instead of workers' rights or social programs. This change has affected how economic policies are shaped today.
  3. Even though neoliberalism seems to be struggling, it continues to influence our lives and policies significantly. Its effects are still visible in the world around us.

Election Countdown, 20 Days to Go: Eyes Wide Open as We Near the End.

Breaking the News • 1115 implied HN points • 16 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Economy Scandals Party Dynamics
  1. The economy is doing really well, which usually benefits the party in power. Strong economies often lead to successful elections for the candidates of the ruling party.
  2. There aren’t any major scandals surrounding the Democrats, unlike the troubles facing Trump. This gives the Democrats a cleaner slate going into the election.
  3. Despite positive factors for Democrats, polls show the election is still close. This leaves uncertainty about the outcome, as historical trends may not predict this race accurately.

Fear and Consolidation in the Oil Patch

BIG by Matt Stoller • 20856 implied HN points • 14 Feb 24
💼 Business Oil industry Mergers Finance Economy Competition
  1. The oil and gas industry is going through a significant wave of consolidation, with mega-mergers happening between major companies.
  2. The mergers and acquisitions in the industry are driven by challenges in increasing production, high finance strategies, and the desire to showcase access to reserves to investors.
  3. The consolidation will likely lead to squeezed suppliers, reduced innovation, and a shift of industry power from domestic firms to global entities.

Top Links 535 Are long-term jobs disappearing? Air-conditioning's power demands. The sphere in trouble & red necks and red bandanas.

Chartbook • 300 implied HN points • 18 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Employment Economy Job Market Public Policy Social Issues
  1. Long-term jobs in the US are increasingly hard to find. Many people are worried about job security and the future of work.
  2. Air conditioning demands a lot of energy, which is becoming a bigger issue. This raises questions about sustainability and energy consumption.
  3. There are cultural and social topics related to 'red necks' and 'red bandanas'. These discussions explore identity and community in different contexts.

Strikes and Bidenomics

BIG by Matt Stoller • 35524 implied HN points • 16 Sep 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy Policy Government Labor Inflation
  1. Public dissatisfaction with the economy despite positive statistics like low unemployment and consumer spending
  2. The Biden administration lacks coherence in its policy approach and struggles to address issues like inflation and housing costs
  3. Judicial appointments and internal disagreements within the administration contribute to the challenges faced by Bidenomics in governing effectively

How Trump Won, What Happens Next, and How Disconnects Drove Democracy

Kyla’s Newsletter • 178 implied HN points • 14 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Policy Economy Trust Media
  1. Trump won the election due to a mix of voter unity, economic dissatisfaction, and a desire for change among a diverse group of voters. Many believed he could restore stability and address their economic concerns better than his opponent.
  2. There's a noticeable disconnect between how people feel about the economy and the actual economic data. Even with good indicators, many voters feel burdened by high prices and economic inequality, leading to frustration and distrust.
  3. The way people receive information shapes their understanding of politics and policy. Social media influences voter perception significantly, and there's a need for clearer communication and engagement on multiple platforms to rebuild trust and convey policies effectively.

⤴⤵ Up Wing/Down Wing #23

Faster, Please! • 274 implied HN points • 02 Nov 24
💼 Business Economy Innovation Technology Healthcare Energy
  1. The US economy is doing really well, growing almost 3% this past year. This growth is mainly due to increased productivity and low inflation, making it a strong economy overall.
  2. Advancements in technology have made the US oil and gas industry the most productive in the nation. New methods in drilling and efficiency are helping keep energy prices low and the economy strong.
  3. A new AI app called Death Clock can predict how long you'll live and offer tips to improve your health. This app uses a lot of research to give personalized recommendations for a better, longer life.

✨ What we know about AI and the economy ... so far, at least

Faster, Please! • 639 implied HN points • 08 Oct 24
💼 Business Economy Investment Technology Job Market
  1. AI investment is growing, especially in chip companies, and is expected to continue rising in the future.
  2. Only a small number of companies are currently using AI, but many are looking to invest more in it despite some concerns.
  3. AI is starting to influence the job market, with more openings in AI-related fields, but it's not a major cause of layoffs yet.

At least five interesting things for your weekend (#26)

Noahpinion • 13059 implied HN points • 27 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy Energy Education Wealth Healthcare
  1. The U.S. economy is thriving, with real growth, increased wages, high employment rates, and a booming stock market.
  2. The U.S. energy supply is abundant due to investments in shale oil production, keeping prices moderate and potentially boosting the economy even further.
  3. Millennials and Gen Z are doing well economically, with wealth accumulation surpassing previous generations at a similar age, especially in real estate.

Did immigration bring down inflation?

Noahpinion • 9647 implied HN points • 03 Mar 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Immigration Economy Policy Labor Market Inflation
  1. Paul Krugman suggests that increased immigration led to a positive supply shock, boosting growth and lowering inflation.
  2. Immigration's impact on reducing costs for companies and expanding aggregate supply is complex, involving immigrant and native-born wage dynamics.
  3. There are differing perspectives on the role of immigration in reducing inflation, with suggestions including a combination of immigration, Fed action, and pandemic-era supply shocks.