The hottest Demographics Substack posts right now

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2024 Presidential Election Night Analysis Guide

COVID Reason • 376 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Demographics Political trends Analysis
  1. In the last two presidential elections, small vote margins decided the winners. It shows how every vote really counts.
  2. It's important to watch specific voter groups like Gen Z males and working-class women, as their choices can greatly affect the results.
  3. Each state has different trends and thresholds for winning, so knowing the local demographics can help predict who might win.

The Most Accurate Pollster of 2020 Releases Their Prediction!

COVID Reason • 713 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling Elections Voter trends Political Analysis Demographics
  1. Atlas Intel was the most accurate pollster in the 2020 election, using a digital-first approach to track voter demographics effectively.
  2. In 2024, Trump is gaining more support among Hispanic and Black voters compared to 2020, showing a notable trend.
  3. Kamala Harris has solid support among Democrats but is struggling more with Independents compared to Biden in 2020.

Lessons on birth rates: Japan and South Korea

Faster, Please! • 456 implied HN points • 27 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Demographics Policy Economics Social Issues International relations
  1. South Korea's birth rate has slightly increased, from 0.72 to 0.75. This small rise gives some hope to policymakers about slowing the country's declining population.
  2. Japan faces a significant demographic challenge with low birth rates, which impacts its economy and society. This situation highlights the importance of addressing demographic decline.
  3. Both countries show that while it’s tough, there can be small improvements in birth rates. Understanding what works in one country may help others tackle similar issues.

ONE WEEK! Here's Your Guide to Election Night

COVID Reason • 178 implied HN points • 29 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Political strategy Demographics
  1. It's important to look closely at county-level data for the election. This helps predict where candidates might do well or struggle.
  2. For Republicans to win, they need to do better in rural areas and keep suburban voters from turning away. They also need to attract more Hispanic voters compared to previous elections.
  3. A detailed spreadsheet is available that tracks key indicators for the election. This will help gauge how each area is leaning as the results come in.

Two Weeks to Go: Crime, Poll Anxiety, and a BIG Kamala Media Blitz.

COVID Reason • 495 implied HN points • 21 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Media Crime Demographics
  1. As the election approaches, there's a lot of tension and uncertainty in politics. Predictions about who will win are heating up, making it a crucial time to pay attention.
  2. Kamala Harris is trying to improve her image by being more visible in the media, but some people in her party are not happy with her approach. The internal issues may be a bigger challenge for her than her opponents.
  3. Concerns about rising crime rates are also affecting the political conversation. More people are talking about how certain policies might be linked to this increase, which could influence voter opinions.
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Whoa! Is California Shifting... Red?!

COVID Reason • 971 implied HN points • 10 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voting Trends Political parties Demographics Election Impact State Politics
  1. California, which has always been a Democratic stronghold, is experiencing more voters registering as Republicans now. This change is getting attention and making people wonder about future elections.
  2. Groups that typically support Democrats, like Latinos and young voters, are switching to the Republican Party in larger numbers. This could change the political landscape there.
  3. Even though the shift to Republican registration is small, it's a sign that Democrats might be losing support in important groups, which could lead to bigger changes in the future.

Does America Require an "Anglo-Protestant" Majority?

Glenn Loury • 515 implied HN points • 15 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Immigration Demographics Cultural Identity Political Philosophy Nationalism
  1. Some believe that America needs an 'Anglo-Protestant' majority to maintain its success and values, arguing that this group historically shaped the nation.
  2. Immigrants often come to America for its opportunities and quality of life, and there's skepticism about the idea that they would change the culture negatively once they arrive.
  3. There is a debate about how important a dominant culture is for national stability, with some suggesting that laws and institutions play a larger role than the ethnic or cultural origins of the people.

Fertility Decline

David Friedman’s Substack • 233 implied HN points • 20 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Demographics Social Policy Public Health Government Role Economic Impact
  1. Fertility rates are dropping worldwide, even in nations that used to have high rates. This is happening due to reasons like better job opportunities for women and fewer economic benefits from having children.
  2. The decline in fertility can have mixed effects, such as less housing and resources per person, but also potential challenges in creating new ideas and technology due to fewer people contributing.
  3. To address the fertility decline, options include promoting family support or medical advancements that make having children easier, although implementing these solutions can be complicated.

What drove Asian and Hispanic voters to the right in 2024

Noahpinion • 16529 implied HN points • 20 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting behavior Political trends Demographics Party Dynamics
  1. Asian and Hispanic voters shifted to the right in the 2024 election due to a mix of economic concerns and perceived disconnection from the Democratic Party's values. Many felt that their priorities were not being addressed.
  2. For Asian voters, issues like crime and education were key factors. Many were frustrated with rising crime rates and felt that the Democrats were not prioritizing their safety and educational opportunities.
  3. Hispanic voters also expressed economic concerns, especially about inflation and rising costs. Some felt that the Democratic Party was out of touch with their family values and priorities, contributing to their shift toward Republicans.

Places without women

Of Boys and Men • 171 implied HN points • 14 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Demographics Social Issues Gender Studies Public Policy
  1. There's a growing trend where many U.S. counties have more men than women. This is particularly noticeable in the younger age group of 20 to 39.
  2. From 2003 to 2023, the number of counties with a majority of men doubled. This shift is significant and mainly seen in rural areas.
  3. Skewed sex ratios can affect various social issues like crime rates and relationship dynamics. It's important to study these trends to understand their impacts better.

🍼 Confronting global population collapse: A Quick Q&A with … demographer Nick Eberstadt

Faster, Please! • 731 implied HN points • 14 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Demographics Economics Political Economy Social Issues
  1. Global population is set to decline for the first time in history, mainly because people are choosing to have fewer children. This shift poses big challenges for governments worldwide.
  2. Unlike past population declines, like during the Black Death, today's situation is driven by personal choices rather than disease. We now face a situation of fewer births happening across different cultures and societies.
  3. The reasons for lower birth rates are complex. It's not just about wealth, as many poorer countries are also experiencing declining birth rates. People's desires for children play a crucial role in understanding these trends.

What Working-Class Voters Wanted

Rob Henderson's Newsletter • 5795 implied HN points • 24 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voting Trends Political Messaging Cultural Issues Elections Demographics
  1. Many working-class voters were drawn to Trump's message of American greatness and opportunity. They felt inspired by his promises to restore economic strength.
  2. The Democratic Party's focus on cultural issues may have alienated many traditional voters. People without college degrees don't always share the same values as those in elite circles.
  3. Many voters, including people of color, still believe in the American Dream. This belief contrasts with some progressive views that paint America negatively.

The Japanification of Work: Lessons from an Ageing Nation

Workforce Futurist by Andy Spence • 293 implied HN points • 22 Jan 25
💼 Business Workforce Economy Demographics Health Technology
  1. Japan is facing a major challenge with an aging population, as more people are over 65 than under 5. This creates pressure on the economy and social systems.
  2. To tackle the labor shortage, Japan is using technology like robots and exoskeletons to support care workers and assist the elderly. Employers are also adjusting work policies to help older workers.
  3. Other countries can learn from Japan's approach to handle aging populations by rethinking retirement, encouraging women in the workforce, and being open to skilled immigration.

It's Kamala Time Part 2

Diane Francis • 999 implied HN points • 22 Jul 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Candidates Demographics Political issues Voting
  1. Joe Biden dropped out of the race mainly due to his age, which is a big issue in politics right now. Donald Trump is now the oldest candidate at 78, while Kamala Harris is 20 years younger.
  2. Harris is expected to run uncontested and might pick Arizona Senator Mark Kelly as her running mate. This choice could strengthen her campaign and appeal to voters.
  3. There will be millions of new young voters eligible to vote, many of whom lean towards the left. If they support Kamala Harris, she could win by a large margin.

The Great Tech Demographic Survey of 2025

The Lunduke Journal of Technology • 2297 implied HN points • 10 Feb 25
🕹 Technology IT Industry Programming Demographics Cryptocurrency
  1. A big survey is happening to gather data on tech workers' preferences and opinions. It asks about topics like programming languages, operating systems, and even personal beliefs.
  2. Everyone's answers will be anonymous, and you can choose which questions to answer. This approach aims to collect honest and diverse opinions.
  3. More participation leads to better data. The survey from last year had over 7,200 responses, and the goal is to get even more this time.

Let My People Go

Life Since the Baby Boom • 1613 implied HN points • 16 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political corruption Voting Rights Demographics
  1. Some counties in Oregon and Illinois feel their state governments don't represent them well, leading them to consider joining nearby states that align more with their views.
  2. In Illinois, issues like high taxes and a long history of political corruption make many residents unhappy, prompting discussions of secession among certain counties.
  3. Changing state boundaries is complicated and requires approval from Congress and the states involved, making it a challenging process for counties wanting to realign.

The Rising Democratic Coalition Fell. Now What?

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 1711 implied HN points • 19 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Political parties Civil Rights Demographics
  1. The Democratic Party is struggling to keep the support of minority voters, which was once a stronghold for them. Changes in the political landscape mean they can't take this loyalty for granted anymore.
  2. Many believed that the growing diversity in America would always benefit the Democrats, creating a lasting majority. However, recent election results have shown that this may not be the case.
  3. Donald Trump's political rise is challenging the Democrats to rethink and address their relationship with voters of color, prompting a need for change in strategy.

Time to Retire "Demographics is Destiny"

Richard Hanania's Newsletter • 2535 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Demographics Political theory Political parties
  1. People's political views often don't come from their backgrounds but from emotions and cultural connections. This means demographics alone don't predict how someone will vote.
  2. Political appeal can change over time, as seen in shifts in how different groups vote. Issues like personality and presentation can matter more than policies.
  3. Instead of focusing on demographics, it's more effective to convince influential people and share ideas. The masses are often influenced by trends and marketing rather than deep understanding.

When civilization control-alt-deletes: prehistoric Europe’s false dawn and long reboot

Razib Khan's Unsupervised Learning • 955 implied HN points • 30 Jan 25
💾 History Ancient Civilizations Archaeology Cultural History Demographics
  1. History often gets viewed through a lens that says the present is better than the past. Many believe we are moving towards a brighter future, but this ignores how societies have often declined over time.
  2. Civilizations can experience drastic collapses followed by long periods of recovery, like how the Mycenaean Greeks fell into a 'Dark Age' before slowly rebuilding their culture.
  3. Ancient Europeans saw significant demographic changes, and early farmers and foragers were very different from each other. Over time, these distinct groups began to blend, showing how migration and cultural shifts shaped Europe.

The Grand Canyon-Sized Chasm Between Elites and Ordinary Americans

Rob Henderson's Newsletter • 8030 implied HN points • 04 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Social Disparities Political Views Demographics
  1. Ivy League graduates have significantly different views than ordinary Americans on individual freedom.
  2. Elite opinions on issues like climate change and immigration differ greatly from ordinary Americans.
  3. There is a notable gap in attitudes between elites and non-elites, regardless of political party affiliation.

The Progressive Youth Chimera

The Liberal Patriot • 2279 implied HN points • 11 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Youth Voters Demographics Election Trends
  1. Demographics are not destiny in politics. Voter preferences can change and influence election outcomes.
  2. The perception of youth as uniformly progressive may be inaccurate. Many young voters identify as moderate or conservative on various issues.
  3. Shifts in voter preference within generations can neutralize any advantage gained from generational changes in demographics.

Lawler: Revisions Almost Eliminate Household/Establishment Survey Employment Growth Gap

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 07 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economics Employment Surveys Demographics Labor Market
  1. The Household Survey and Establishment Survey both track employment, but there was a significant gap in their growth estimates over the years. Recent updates have nearly closed this gap.
  2. New population estimates showed that previous estimates of employment growth were too low, mainly due to underestimating international migration. This has led to a big revision upward in the Household Survey employment numbers.
  3. Now, both surveys show similar employment growth trends, which suggests that the labor market may not be as weak as previously thought.

America Has Black Nationalism, Not Balkanization

Richard Hanania's Newsletter • 4023 implied HN points • 12 Mar 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Race relations Demographics Government Policy Political Ideologies
  1. American racial politics should be understood as primarily about Black Nationalism versus everyone else, rather than just whites versus minorities.
  2. The power and impact of America's assimilation capacity and focus on black issues in politics are significant and have defied demographic changes.
  3. Fighting to eliminate racial classifications and recognition for non-black minorities may be more important than battling Black Nationalism directly, as black-centered politics tend to remain irrespective of external influences.

ONE IMAGE: 40 Million Canadians

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 607 implied HN points • 04 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Geography Demographics Economics Population Policy
  1. About 90% of Canadians live close to the US border, which influences their economy and lifestyle. Most of Canada's population is concentrated in big cities like Toronto and Montreal.
  2. Canada's population density is quite low, with only 4 people per square kilometer outside urban areas. This means there are many large, empty spaces in the country.
  3. Canadians have a relatively high life expectancy and are mostly bilingual in English and French. About a quarter of the population are visible minorities, showcasing diversity.

Fertility Links

In My Tribe • 470 implied HN points • 11 Jan 25
🏥 Health & Wellness Fertility Marriage Parenting Demographics Aging
  1. Women are most fertile in their late teens, and the decline in fertility happens steadily between ages 20 and 40. It's important to understand this to make informed choices about family planning.
  2. Many countries are experiencing lower birth rates, and this trend is not just linked to economic factors. It's happening in places where we might not expect it, showing that fertility is a complex issue.
  3. Marriage is changing, becoming less common and often entered into later in life. This shift affects when couples start having children, which can contribute to declining birth rates.

Fertility Links, 1/29/2025

In My Tribe • 364 implied HN points • 29 Jan 25
🎭️ Culture Family Society Demographics Marriage Parenting
  1. Declining birth rates lead to more uncertainty for people choosing to have children. Many feel isolated as they navigate parenthood alone, without others in their circle sharing the same experience.
  2. Marriage, when built on cooperation and trust, leads to better outcomes for families. However, changing societal norms and laws are shifting it toward a system where partners may not fully commit.
  3. Africa's population is growing rapidly, and concerns about its implications are rising. This might lead to shifts in global demographics and create challenges if issues in African societies remain unresolved.

Top links 609 Deindustrialization as historic trend. Why CHIPS investments go to places with the right workforce. Falling birth rates and the Trieste model of mental health.

Chartbook • 443 implied HN points • 05 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Labor Issues Demographics Public Health Mental health
  1. Deindustrialization is a major trend in history, affecting many regions and economies. This means industries are moving or shutting down, which changes job markets and communities.
  2. The success of CHIPS investments relies on having the right kind of workforce in specific areas. This highlights the importance of education and skill development for economic growth.
  3. Falling birth rates are a growing concern, and the Trieste model is an interesting approach to mental health. It shows that innovative practices can impact social issues positively.

Analyzing The Recall Of Pamela Price

The Discourse Lounge • 512 implied HN points • 17 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Analysis Demographics Social Issues Local Governance
  1. Pamela Price's recall shows that political disagreements shouldn't lead to recalls unless there's serious wrongdoing. Many voters felt the recall was too harsh given the situation.
  2. Demographic changes in the area impacted voting results. Higher growth in White residents correlated with support for Price, while Hispanic communities leaned towards the recall.
  3. The lack of reliable local news played a big role in shaping public opinion against Price. Many residents relied on social media for information, leading to misperceptions about her performance as a District Attorney.

Pssst! Medium Will Soon Have 1 Million Paying Members and More Insights You Need to Know

Kristina God's Online Writing Club • 819 implied HN points • 25 Jan 24
💼 Business Marketing E-commerce Startups Demographics Digital Media
  1. Medium is gaining popularity with over 100 million readers and is about to hit 1 million paying members. This shows it has a strong audience for writers.
  2. The main age group using Medium is 25 to 34 years old, with more male users than female users. Understanding the audience can help writers connect better.
  3. Technology is the most popular topic on Medium, with lots of articles written about it. Writers should consider focusing on trending subjects to engage with readers.

Crime in the USA

Patterns in Humanity • 943 implied HN points • 30 Dec 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Crime Demographics History Law enforcement
  1. Homicide rates in the USA have fluctuated over the last century, showing large variations instead of a consistent downward trend.
  2. The USA has a high homicide rate compared to other highly developed countries, with the rate being 6.4 times higher than the average of 24 other nations.
  3. The high incarceration rate in the USA is mainly driven by violent crimes, not mass incarceration of drug offenders, and is unmatched by other highly developed countries.

Mind Viruses

ideassleepfuriously • 746 implied HN points • 30 Jan 24
🔬 Science Demographics Ideology Media Culture
  1. Ideas can spread like viruses from person to person, affecting fitness and function.
  2. The impact of mind viruses can be seen in historical case studies like the Xhosa Cattle-Killing Movement and Brazilian Soap Operas.
  3. Secularism in France and the Bradlaugh-Besant Trial in the UK are examples of how ideologies can shape demographic transitions.

Fertility Links, 12/8/2024

In My Tribe • 394 implied HN points • 08 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Demographics Fertility Policy Society Marriage
  1. By 2050, the working-age population will mostly come from Africa and India, with Nigeria's population matching that of the entire EU. This shift will affect global dynamics significantly.
  2. To boost fertility rates, experts suggest giving parents financial incentives right when children are born, rather than long-term support. They also recommend policies that encourage marriage, as married couples tend to have more children.
  3. In Britain, there's a need to change how families are treated in the tax system. Encouraging larger families through better policies and communication about the fertility crisis could help address declining birth rates.

👴👵🤖 Humanity’s Great Fight for the Future: Demographics vs. AI

Faster, Please! • 1370 implied HN points • 05 Feb 24
🕹 Technology AI Demographics Economy Future scenarios Automation
  1. There may be a tug-of-war between AI-led productivity gains and the budget impacts of retirees and falling population growth.
  2. The analysis examines key megatrends like technology, demographics, fiscal deficits, globalization, and energy transitions.
  3. Two scenarios are presented: One where aging population and retirees limit growth, and another where productivity surges through AI-led automation.

TLP's 2024 Swing-State Project: Pennsylvania (Part Two)

The Liberal Patriot • 609 implied HN points • 22 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Demographics Voting Patterns Population Election Analysis
  1. Pennsylvania experienced modest population growth over the past decade with significant gains in certain counties due to new jobs brought by e-commerce giants.
  2. Pennsylvania is a mostly white state with diverse racial populations concentrated in certain areas.
  3. Voting patterns in Pennsylvania show trends of white voters leaning Republican, differences in voter demographics by age, education, and union affiliation, and the importance of retaining support across various groups.

Links in Progress: Should we give babies the vote?

The Works in Progress Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 28 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Demographics Voting Rights Public Policy Economic Impact
  1. Many people are single now, which is making it harder for birth rates to go up. If we want to see more babies, we need to help people find partners.
  2. Having a stable home situation is really important for starting a family. Some studies show that financial help for housing can actually lead to more people having kids.
  3. South Korea is seeing a small increase in births for the first time in years. This might be because of new government policies that encourage families to have more children.