The Better Letter

The Better Letter explores the intersections of markets, politics, faith, and personal life through a lens that emphasizes long-term thinking, reality-based decision-making, and appreciation for randomness and uncertainty. It critiques short-sightedness, promotes critical thinking, and reflects on societal trends and human behavior.

Investing and Financial Planning Economic and Market Predictions Decision-Making and Cognitive Biases Politics and Society Personal Development and Life Philosophy The Role of Luck and Randomness Faith and Culture

The hottest Substack posts of The Better Letter

And their main takeaways

The Better Letter: Flip-Flopping

39 implied HN points • 11 Dec 20
  1. Advent is about waiting in darkness and longing for hope.
  2. Flip-flopping, based on new evidence or arguments, can be a good thing.
  3. Globalization has political benefits, but there are reasons to reconsider trade with China.

The Better Letter: King of the Virtues

39 implied HN points • 27 Nov 20
  1. Be grateful for what you have, especially family, and help others
  2. Humility is the most important virtue, as history is unpredictable
  3. Love and respect those you disagree with, using dignity and discipline

The Better Letter: A Fundamentalist Top Ten List

39 implied HN points • 24 Jul 20
  1. Secular fundamentalisms are on the rise, fueled by the online environment and lack of personal interaction.
  2. Fundamentalists exhibit traits like excessive certainty, zealous guarding of 'truth', and intolerance of dissent.
  3. History shows that viewing opponents as less than fully human can lead to atrocities, emphasizing the dangers of fundamentalism.

The Better Letter: Life Isn’t Fair

39 implied HN points • 17 Jul 20
  1. Life isn't fair, individually and structurally
  2. American Founders chose to protect rights over equality
  3. Tension between freedom and equality is a constant in American history

The Better Letter: Seven Fourths

39 implied HN points • 03 Jul 20
  1. America's founding involved great risk and sacrifice for freedom.
  2. Reconciliation and forgiveness are virtues showcased by historical figures like John Adams and Thomas Jefferson.
  3. Assessing America's greatness involves considering both its strengths and its shortcomings.
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The Better Letter: Dear Abby

39 implied HN points • 19 Jun 20
  1. The TV show The Wonder Years captures a coming-of-age story set against a backdrop of historical turmoil
  2. Advice for life emphasizes kindness, changing the world, living with purpose, and taking responsibility
  3. Gratitude, hard work, discerning true allies, and embracing challenges are key lessons for life

The Better Letter: Someone Say Grace

39 implied HN points • 22 May 20
  1. Avoid errors by focusing on eliminating mistakes rather than taking risky actions.
  2. Eliminating mistakes is key for better performance in golf, football, and investing.
  3. Live a fulfilling life by focusing on doing good and showing love to others.

The Better Letter: Do the Planes Land?

39 implied HN points • 17 Apr 20
  1. The importance of not fooling ourselves and ensuring our beliefs are based on evidence. Remember, Aristotle thought heavier objects fell faster, but Galileo proved him wrong.
  2. Beware of motivated reasoning, where people focus on what they want to hear rather than the truth. This can lead to incorrect predictions, like the one made by Paul Ehrlich about mass starvation in the 1970s and 1980s.
  3. Media outlets often cater to our biases, telling us what we want to hear. This can lead to misinformation and biased reporting, as seen during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Better Letter: It’s Friday, but Sunday’s comin’!

39 implied HN points • 10 Apr 20
  1. It’s Friday, but Sunday’s comin’ - a message of hope and faith in challenging times.
  2. Confirmation bias blinds us to our prejudices, making us unaware of our biases.
  3. Meaning and purpose are essential - focus on what truly matters for a fulfilled life.

The Better Letter: The Value of a Life

39 implied HN points • 23 Mar 20
  1. The value of a human life can be measured in different ways, such as monetary worth and societal impact.
  2. During the COVID-19 crisis, the importance of balancing public health and economic costs is highlighted.
  3. Acts of solidarity and kindness during difficult times show the strength of human connection and resilience.

The Better Letter: Baseball Lessons

19 implied HN points • 18 Jun 21
  1. Baseball teaches important life lessons through struggles and challenges.
  2. In baseball and life, success comes from getting a good opportunity and making the most of it.
  3. Value can be found by seeking out underappreciated assets through a disciplined process.

The Better Letter: A Product of Trust

19 implied HN points • 04 Jun 21
  1. Finding and telling the truth in a messy world is difficult and hard work.
  2. We are all susceptible to biases like confirmation bias and motivated reasoning.
  3. Trust plays a key role in what we believe and who we choose to trust influences our beliefs.

The Better Letter: Believing is Seeing

19 implied HN points • 21 May 21
  1. The lessons we're likely to learn are the ones we already know.
  2. People tend to see what they want to see, confirming their beliefs.
  3. Confirmation bias influences how we interpret information and make decisions.

The Better Letter: Odds and Ends

19 implied HN points • 07 May 21
  1. A structure needs to be well designed and built to objective standards to be stable.
  2. Even beautiful things may require significant touch-up work behind the scenes.
  3. Diversification in portfolios is crucial, as not all assets will perform well at the same time.

The Better Letter: Math-Challenged

19 implied HN points • 26 Mar 21
  1. Humans are generally bad at math and probability.
  2. Math anxiety is real and many struggle with mathematical concepts.
  3. We tend to make mistakes in understanding mathematical probabilities and biases influence our judgment.

The Better Letter: How Lucky Are You?

19 implied HN points • 12 Mar 21
  1. Luck plays a significant role in many aspects of life, including sports predictions and financial markets.
  2. The odds of creating a perfect March Madness bracket are incredibly small due to the unpredictability of outcomes.
  3. Unexpected events, influenced by luck, happen more frequently than we might realize.

The Better Letter: The Heart of the Matter

19 implied HN points • 05 Mar 21
  1. Science and art are both important, as well as reason and emotion.
  2. The scientific method relies on empirical, measurable evidence to ascertain what is real and true.
  3. Good science involves constant questioning and revision based on new evidence, despite our inherent biases.

TBL (Bonus Edition): Tourist Money

19 implied HN points • 29 Jan 21
  1. The GameStop situation mirrors past financial scandals.
  2. Always be cautious of who has your best interests in mind, financially.
  3. The GameStop frenzy highlights the risks of speculative trading.

The Better Letter: Zoom Bomb

19 implied HN points • 15 Jan 21
  1. The story of Semmelweis highlights the resistance to new ideas that challenge the status quo.
  2. Politics and media feed off extremism and division driven by personal attacks, but it's more about business and economic incentives.
  3. In this polarized environment, media echo chambers and personal attacks fuel the culture wars, undermining civility and objective reporting.

The Better Letter: Forecasting Follies

19 implied HN points • 08 Jan 21
  1. Market predictions are often unreliable and can be wildly wrong.
  2. History shows that experts struggle to accurately forecast various outcomes, from financial markets to sports events.
  3. Forecasts are influenced by biases, complexity, and reliance on luck rather than accurate predictions.

The Better Letter: Lessons Learned

19 implied HN points • 01 Jan 21
  1. The world is complex, and forecasting the future is hard
  2. The San Diego Padres have made significant improvements and are in a promising position for the upcoming season
  3. Lessons learned from 2020 include the fragility of normalcy, the importance of adaptability, and the value of personal connections

The Better Letter: I’d Know

19 implied HN points • 30 Oct 20
  1. During an election campaign, people tend to be overly certain about outcomes.
  2. Many individuals display false certainty in their beliefs, like in identifying expensive wines.
  3. Exercising political freedom, like voting, is crucial during elections.

The Better Letter: Tentative Principles

19 implied HN points • 02 Oct 20
  1. Maintain focus on the longer-term to be a successful investor.
  2. Diversify your investments because mistakes happen and we don't know everything.
  3. Focus more on the process rather than the outcome in investing and in life.

The Better Letter: An Empowered Critic

19 implied HN points • 18 Sep 20
  1. Leaders need people who challenge them.
  2. Baseball has a timeless quality.
  3. Using data and analytics in baseball can significantly impact team success.

The Better Letter: Process, Probability, and Power

19 implied HN points • 14 Aug 20
  1. Outcome bias is a significant issue that impacts decisions and results more than we realize.
  2. In probabilistic fields, focusing on a good process increases the chances of success, even if outcomes may vary.
  3. Beware of prioritizing outcomes over process, as this can lead to problems and conflicts, especially when imposing preferred outcomes on others.

The Better Letter: The Needed Hypothesis

19 implied HN points • 07 Aug 20
  1. Creative ideas are causes, not consequences
  2. God is a needed hypothesis for things to happen
  3. Materialism and determinism are less compelling arguments for a godless universe

The Better Letter: You’ve Really Got to Want It

19 implied HN points • 31 Jul 20
  1. The 2008-2009 financial crisis exposed the need for a diverse range of opinions and independent thinkers within institutions like the New York Fed.
  2. Overcoming biases and behavioral tendencies requires a commitment to challenging assumptions and fostering diversity of thought in decision-making processes.
  3. Harvard, along with many other institutions, claims commitment to diversity but often lacks true diversity of thought, which is essential for fostering critical thinking and better decision-making.

The Better Letter: Wash Your Hands

0 implied HN points • 28 Mar 20
  1. Wash your hands thoroughly and for a longer period to prevent the spread of diseases like the coronavirus.
  2. New evidence or knowledge is often rejected if it contradicts established norms or beliefs.
  3. In times of crisis, truth is crucial for retaining public trust and navigating challenges effectively.

The Better Letter: Religious People

0 implied HN points • 21 Aug 20
  1. America is not a Christian nation today, despite historical beliefs.
  2. Religious beliefs are declining in society, but there is still a sense of spirituality.
  3. The intense spiritual hunger in society is now expressed through politics, leading to division and extreme ideologies.

The Better Letter: Evidence-Based

0 implied HN points • 29 Jan 21
  1. Facts without interpretation are useless; respect evidence in a reality-based approach.
  2. Evidence often presents conflicting directions and challenges biases.
  3. Seeking disconfirming evidence and understanding the limits of proof is crucial in decision-making.

The Better Letter: Loud and Deep

0 implied HN points • 24 Dec 20
  1. Christmas can be difficult, but focusing on what you have can help.
  2. Perception can sometimes blind us from recognizing greatness.
  3. The essence of Christmas lies in the simple moments of love and togetherness.

The Better Letter: Maxim Guns

0 implied HN points • 25 Sep 20
  1. The GOP might confirm a new Supreme Court justice, but it's a contentious issue.
  2. American politics is increasingly divided and influenced by intense narratives of grievance.
  3. The Supreme Court confirmation process has evolved into a political power struggle with no clear rules.

The Better Letter: Looking for Mathletes

0 implied HN points • 15 Mar 20
  1. Understanding exponential growth is crucial for dealing with phenomena such as pandemic spread.
  2. Political math often involves misleading promises and deceptive tactics by politicians.
  3. The market is facing challenges with decreasing liquidity, economic impacts of the pandemic, and uncertainty around political decisions.

The Better Letter: Needed Discipline

0 implied HN points • 12 Jun 20
  1. Change, whether revolution or reform, is difficult but necessary.
  2. Our tribal nature can blind us from seeing clearly and accepting opposing viewpoints.
  3. Maintaining discipline and avoiding falsehoods is crucial in polarized times.

The Better Letter: Inherent Uncertainty

0 implied HN points • 03 Apr 20
  1. We often live with an illusion of certainty, but the reality is inherently uncertain.
  2. Life is unpredictable, and we must acknowledge the role of luck in our successes and failures.
  3. During times of crisis, humility, kindness, and service are crucial for navigating inherent uncertainty.

The Better Letter: It Really Is Different This Time

0 implied HN points • 01 Apr 20
  1. The global economy has taken a sharp downturn due to the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in significant market losses
  2. The first quarter of 2020 marked the largest quarterly decline for major stock indexes since 2008
  3. There is uncertainty about the extent and duration of the economic impact, with hopes for a rebound in the second half of 2020

The Better Letter: Purity Rituals

0 implied HN points • 26 Jun 20
  1. History is often messy and calls for deeper reflection, as seen through recent racial reexaminations.
  2. The present is not the end of our personal growth -- we continue to change throughout our lives.
  3. Moral certainty can lead to extreme actions, like tearing down statues and canceling people, showing the need for balance and historical context.

The Better Letter: 9.11 Stories

0 implied HN points • 11 Sep 20
  1. The power of storytelling is immense and can shape our understanding of reality.
  2. Facts can be stubborn and must be accounted for, even when they challenge our preconceived narratives.
  3. It is important to remain open to facts that may contradict our beliefs and to constantly reassess our conclusions based on new information.