Buggy Humans in a Messy World

Buggy Humans in a Messy World is a Substack centered on psychology, complex social systems, and investing principles. It explores rational critical thinking, investment strategy, and the impact of human behavior in business and financial markets. Through diverse topics, it stresses the importance of understanding intrinsic value, managing risk, and learning from seasoned investors and historical patterns.

Investing Strategies Human Psychology Risk Management Critical Thinking Business Valuation Market Analysis Leadership and Decision Making Financial Education Corporate Governance Cultural Analysis

The hottest Substack posts of Buggy Humans in a Messy World

And their main takeaways

Mr Gormint

176 implied HN points • 29 Oct 21
  1. Investors need more allegories like Mr Market.
  2. Mr Gormint's influence is on business value, not stock price.
  3. It's best to avoid Mr Gormint or keep exposure small and expectations modest.

Parental approach to investment risk

353 implied HN points • 25 Jul 20
  1. The most important thing in investing is managing risk, not chasing high returns.
  2. Traditional finance theories often misunderstand and mismanage risk.
  3. A parental approach to investing involves distinguishing between risks to avoid entirely and risks to cautiously manage.

How to judge people? Don't.

334 implied HN points • 13 Aug 20
  1. Judge track records instead of people.
  2. Give time to distinguish skill from luck.
  3. Look for internal consistency in a business's track record.

Shit will happen

314 implied HN points • 27 Aug 20
  1. Snafus are the default state, even in good businesses.
  2. Having multiple levels of safety helps prevent small issues from becoming catastrophic.
  3. Recognize that setbacks are inevitable, so investing requires humility and caution.

Context over individuals

216 implied HN points • 21 Apr 21
  1. Context is more important than individuals in both investing and life
  2. Evaluation should consider the context in which people operate
  3. Criticism towards individuals should take into account the contextual pressures they face
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Insurer death-claims were in line with prior trend during first covid wave

176 implied HN points • 08 Aug 21
  1. Insurer death-claims were in line with prior trend during first covid wave.
  2. Insurance death claims provide a reliable dataset on mortality linked to all-cause mortality trends.
  3. COVID-19 constituted a small fraction of death claims and deaths during the period studied.

Broken scoreboard

294 implied HN points • 06 Oct 20
  1. Investing is more about temperament than intellect or judgment.
  2. Markets combine a game with real-world consequences and a broken scoreboard.
  3. Scoreboards offer a feedback loop to refine inputs for improved outcomes.

Four-letter words of investing

314 implied HN points • 24 Jul 20
  1. Luck: Success in investing often starts with luck, but it evolves into skill over time.
  2. Odds: In investing, nothing is guaranteed, but a sensible process can improve the odds over the long run.
  3. Risk: The key 4-letter word in investing is risk, which includes existential threats and other incremental risks.

A silly guide to the World of Mythical Beasts

176 implied HN points • 09 Jul 21
  1. English teachers are making jokes about finance terms
  2. Financial statements are getting humorously redefined
  3. Investment language is getting more creative and whimsical

Private equity to English translator

255 implied HN points • 15 Oct 20
  1. PE and VC investors are still making deals despite working from home
  2. Their language and terminology can be confusing to outsiders
  3. A translation for private equity jargon could be helpful

An investor's spam filter

275 implied HN points • 21 Aug 20
  1. Investors receive a lot of emails but have to filter most out
  2. They have a specific algorithm to quickly delete certain types of emails based on subject lines
  3. Not all emails are ignored; investors still read reports that are carefully prepared and valuable

Growth is overrated

275 implied HN points • 11 Aug 20
  1. Investors tend to chase projected growth, which is often unreliable.
  2. Investors may exaggerate the success of their investments and overlook other key factors like governance and risk.
  3. Compounding is different from growth and is based on a holistic approach focusing on strength, quality, and sustainability.

Innate conflict of interest

157 implied HN points • 12 Jul 21
  1. Be cautious of others' views when their interests don't align with yours.
  2. Higher prices and more trading may not always lead to higher returns.
  3. Always be mindful of conflicting interests when making decisions.

Greedy, fearful and all that

196 implied HN points • 03 Mar 21
  1. When investing during times of fear, focus on buying good businesses at a good price.
  2. Regularly review and update your investing shopping list during times of panic or crisis.
  3. Maintain a long-term perspective on investing and rely on a solid investment process amid market fluctuations.

Markets: maddening yet marvellous

275 implied HN points • 23 Jul 20
  1. The stock market can be chaotic and unpredictable, with various influencers affecting its behavior.
  2. Despite the volatility, long-term investments in the stock market can lead to significant financial growth and stability.
  3. Passive index funds and sensible investing strategies can help individuals navigate the stock market for better financial outcomes.

Mock on

235 implied HN points • 03 Nov 20
  1. Mockery is a form of critical thinking with attitude, useful for spotting absurdity and chicanery.
  2. Mockery helps in avoiding financial landmines and identifying dodgy businesses early on.
  3. By being irreverent and mocking even oneself, it's possible to stay grounded and avoid falling for overconfident predictions.

I hope I haven’t done anything stupid today

235 implied HN points • 27 Oct 20
  1. Ajit Jain's wisdom emphasizes the importance of not doing anything stupid in daily decisions.
  2. Constantly asking 'What am I missing?' helps guide actions in investing and business contexts.
  3. Prioritizing to avoid mistakes and ensure thoroughness is crucial in decision-making processes.

An investing lesson from Hayek

196 implied HN points • 18 Feb 21
  1. Investing involves making big bets without knowing the outcomes.
  2. Hayek's distinction between sculptor and gardener highlights the importance of focusing on controllable inputs rather than trying to predict outcomes.
  3. Adopting a gardener mindset in investing promotes humility, patience, and a focus on known inputs rather than speculation.

Happy New Year

176 implied HN points • 01 Apr 21
  1. The author is wishing a happy new year in a unique way related to work jargon
  2. The author imagines a scenario of applying work terms to life events like talking about their child
  3. The post is humorous and invites readers to see everyday life through a lens of corporate language

Last refuge of license raj

216 implied HN points • 25 Nov 20
  1. Banking industry is heavily regulated compared to other sectors.
  2. Regulating banking is challenging due to human behavior and historical factors.
  3. Awarding banking licenses involves complex decision-making processes.

Of vaccinations and base rates

196 implied HN points • 18 Jan 21
  1. Base rates help us understand how common things happen in a large population.
  2. When reporting on vaccinations, we should consider the overall context of a large-scale vaccination program.
  3. Correlation does not imply causality, so it's important to trust scientific expertise and not panic about individual stories.

Signs we’re in a Bubble

196 implied HN points • 15 Jan 21
  1. A bubble requires absurdity, not just excess
  2. Signs of a bubble may include strange business decisions and trends
  3. Noteworthy behaviors like SPACs, unrealistic valuations, and name changes could indicate a bubble

Vaccicorns: An improbable rescue mission

157 implied HN points • 22 May 21
  1. Global vaccine makers faced improbable odds before saving the world.
  2. Western ecosystems support long-gestation projects with substantial funding.
  3. Discourse on vaccine makers should focus on accomplishments, not skepticism.

Sound judgment toolkit: Representativeness

157 implied HN points • 04 May 21
  1. Improving representativeness of evidence helps limit bias and improve judgment
  2. Viewing absence of evidence as evidence too is crucial for a representative analysis
  3. Do not view anecdotes in isolation - consider a wide range of evidence for a more accurate understanding

My favorite (investing) book

196 implied HN points • 14 Dec 20
  1. Sensible investing starts with avoiding ruinous risks.
  2. Patience is key in investing, spending most time waiting for the right moment.
  3. Investing is a solitary pursuit, where forming independent opinions is crucial.

Reflecting on 2020

196 implied HN points • 07 Dec 20
  1. Reflect on lessons learned from market swings without being influenced by them
  2. Avoid taking predictions too seriously to not miss out investing opportunities
  3. Focus on choosing sturdy boats rather than predicting wind direction in investing

Always true, nowadays obvious

157 implied HN points • 06 Apr 21
  1. Uncertainty is constant, especially in difficult times
  2. Prioritize financial security over complex theories in business
  3. Focus on owning businesses, not just buying stocks, for long-term investment success

Hole in the head

196 implied HN points • 18 Nov 20
  1. Acknowledging what's unknowable in investments is important.
  2. Ignoring external influences on unknowable factors is difficult.
  3. Being at peace with not knowing is a valuable skill in investing.

Smile because it happened

196 implied HN points • 10 Nov 20
  1. Focus on the positive surprises, don't dwell on the negatives
  2. Businesses have shown impressive resilience and adaptability during challenging times
  3. Consumers and businesses have managed to recover faster than expected

Is value investing dead?

216 implied HN points • 05 Sep 20
  1. Style boxes like 'value' and 'growth' are oversimplified and flawed labels in investing.
  2. Investment methods are messy and subjective, involving fuzzy inputs and judgment calls.
  3. Value investing is alive, but it's just one of many important factors in a successful investment process.

Rationalizing vs reasoning

137 implied HN points • 12 Jun 21
  1. Complicated frameworks are often used to rationalize decisions, not to arrive at logical ones.
  2. Euphemisms can sometimes mask the real impact of privileged decisions on those less fortunate.
  3. Extended restrictive measures without solid basis can have harmful effects on people's livelihoods.

An introduction to my essay-series

216 implied HN points • 23 Jul 20
  1. The brain's operating system is designed for survival and reproduction, leading to subconscious shortcuts and irrational behavior.
  2. Humans struggle in complex social systems, often making mistakes in politics, finances, and social interactions.
  3. Despite our primitive brain software, we can still recognize patterns and learn to navigate the complexities of the modern world.

Analysis of insurance death-claims during India’s Delta wave

78 implied HN points • 02 Feb 22
  1. Insurance death-claims during India's Delta wave were 40% above trend.
  2. India likely witnessed 1.6 million excess deaths during the second covid wave.
  3. Extrapolation from death-claims to registered-deaths should be viewed as an if-then statement, not as a direct count.

Exaggerated excess

117 implied HN points • 30 Jul 21
  1. Even seemingly reasonable analyses can exaggerate excess deaths by over 100%
  2. Methodological aspects like trend adjustment and baseline selection can significantly impact excess death estimates
  3. Cherry-picking data and only using one side of the distribution can lead to biased estimates

Arrogance vs Humility

157 implied HN points • 08 Feb 21
  1. Investing requires a balance between humility and arrogance, with a suggestion of 99% humility and 1% arrogance.
  2. Humility in investing means avoiding basing decisions on unknowable factors and being cautious in the investment process.
  3. Arrogance in investing comes after applying humility and caution, helping to translate conviction into decisive action.

Epistemic humility

196 implied HN points • 02 Sep 20
  1. Forecasting is inappropriate without relevant historical data
  2. In unprecedented situations, there is no frame of reference for predictions
  3. Amidst uncertainty, it's important to have epistemic humility and avoid overconfidence in making forecasts

Word of the day: Tyrannoid

137 implied HN points • 17 Apr 21
  1. Tyrannoid refers to people with paranoid health concerns and tyrannical behaviors.
  2. Tyrannoids can be found in public administration and housing societies.
  3. They make poor judgments and are indifferent to others' plights.

Buy-price, but no sell-price?

157 implied HN points • 25 Jan 21
  1. Hold forever philosophy in investing can raise questions about not having a sell-price.
  2. Consistency in investing approach involves balancing risks and objectives like avoiding ruin, seeking quality, paying sensibly, and owning forever.
  3. Valuation is important in investing, but always comes last in the process.

Excess deaths, deficient maths

117 implied HN points • 21 Jun 21
  1. Excess deaths are often sensationalized without proper context and historical trend analysis.
  2. India's death registration system focuses on counting registrations, not actual deaths, which varies across states.
  3. It's crucial to consider trend growth and variability in death data when analyzing covid-period deaths to avoid misleading conclusions.

Pizza for one

196 implied HN points • 31 Jul 20
  1. The struggle of ordering a pizza when you're alone and finding the perfect size
  2. Discovering a solution by ordering a thin crust medium pizza with extra area and toppings
  3. Feeling the psychological cost of paying more for a premium option, transitioning from middle-class self-image to something else