Buggy Humans in a Messy World

Buggy Humans in a Messy World is a Substack centered on psychology, complex social systems, and investing principles. It explores rational critical thinking, investment strategy, and the impact of human behavior in business and financial markets. Through diverse topics, it stresses the importance of understanding intrinsic value, managing risk, and learning from seasoned investors and historical patterns.

Investing Strategies Human Psychology Risk Management Critical Thinking Business Valuation Market Analysis Leadership and Decision Making Financial Education Corporate Governance Cultural Analysis

The hottest Substack posts of Buggy Humans in a Messy World

And their main takeaways

Charlie Munger

1611 implied HN points • 29 Nov 23
💰 Finance Investing Philosophy Market Analysis
  1. Charlie Munger emphasized rationality, judgment, and bluntness in his approach.
  2. He taught people not just how to invest, but also how to think critically.
  3. Munger's blunt honesty and ability to see through the facade of things made a lasting impact.

Contextualizing terror, the right way

511 implied HN points • 13 Oct 23
🌍 World Politics Terrorism Violence
  1. The enormity of the Satanic Saturday terrorism is hard to fully grasp.
  2. The scale of the attack far exceeds previous well-known terrorist events like 9/11 and 26/11.
  3. It is important to understand and frame the magnitude of such acts of terror, rather than making excuses for them.

On investment firms, brand & reputation

963 implied HN points • 23 Jun 23
💰 Finance Investment Reputation Communication Performance
  1. Investment firms may not have a brand, but they do have a reputation which is crucial in a commoditized business.
  2. An investment firm's reputation is determined by how well they behave and how they invest.
  3. Good behavior includes walking away from excessive fees and communicating honestly, while good investments involve associating with reputable businesses.

The Great Disconnect

884 implied HN points • 19 May 23
💰 Finance Investing Stock Markets
  1. Learn from the best in your domain by studying their common approaches and applying them to your own journey.
  2. In investing, aligning with the strategies of the greatest of all time can lead to success.
  3. There seems to be a disconnect in how aspiring investors follow strategies compared to successful investors.
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Some jottings on Pulak’s book

628 implied HN points • 15 Mar 23
💼 Business Investing Evolutionary biology Role Models
  1. Investing knowledge is best learned from successful practitioners who openly share their thoughts and actions.
  2. Exploring the world of evolutionary biology can offer valuable insights into investing and life.
  3. Pulak's book emphasizes timeless investing principles and helps them stick better by presenting them through a novel lens.

15th anniversary essay: Thoroughly conscious ignorance

1356 implied HN points • 23 May 22
  1. The importance of thoroughly conscious ignorance in driving advancements in science and professional growth
  2. Implementing ignorance in investing strategies, such as not forecasting, not focusing on macro trends, and not claiming deep knowledge of specific businesses
  3. Maintaining conscious ignorance over the long term to avoid overconfidence, play it safe, and capture opportunities in investing

Second axiom of investing

491 implied HN points • 04 May 23
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Financial Services
  1. Stocks are businesses, and understanding their worth relative to price is crucial for investing.
  2. Shareholders are last in line to get paid, especially in high-leverage sectors like financial services.
  3. Valuation is risky in businesses where shareholders are at the bottom of the payment queue.

That Madras irreverance

904 implied HN points • 21 Apr 22
  1. Madras irreverance is about being blunt and transparent, with no tolerance for wishy-washy language.
  2. Wit and humor play a significant role in the Madras irreverance, shaping a culture of insightful mockery.
  3. Utilizing Madras irreverance in navigating the chaos of the investing world can bring a unique perspective and help maintain sanity.

Book discussion

235 implied HN points • 16 Apr 23
📚 Literature Author Book Discussion Evolution Investing
  1. Pulak discusses his book on evolution & investing in his first public appearance in two decades.
  2. Learn that Pulak exists as a public figure and hear directly from him on topics covered in the book.
  3. Listening to the audio interview is recommended over reading the transcript.

Unicornish to English translator

550 implied HN points • 03 Jun 22
  1. Unicornia is a confusing place with strange transformations
  2. There's a translator to help make sense of Unicornish
  3. The translator decodes unusual Unicornia terms into English

A few basic questions

668 implied HN points • 09 Mar 22
  1. Investing is simple but not easy, especially during turbulent times.
  2. Revisiting basic questions about investing can help clarify actions and strengthen conviction.
  3. Focus on safe, good businesses, reasonable valuations, and sticking to a consistent approach.

Market’s so bad that …

432 implied HN points • 06 May 22
  1. The market's condition is so bad that humor is being used to describe it.
  2. Various funny scenarios are being imagined to show how bad the market is, such as famous figures making unexpected moves.
  3. The market's struggle is humorously illustrated with wild and unexpected jokes, adding creativity to discussing the financial climate.

Are you really sorted out?

746 implied HN points • 08 Sep 21
  1. The hard part of investing is not finding an approach that works, but sticking to it over time.
  2. Being 'sorted out' is essential in building successful businesses across different domains.
  3. Investors need to focus on what works for them personally, not just what works in general, to be successful in the long run.

Sshh, value doesn’t matter!

569 implied HN points • 06 Dec 21
  1. Prudent investors focus on intrinsic business value, margin of safety, and Mr. Market.
  2. Value and safety margin are inseparable in intelligent investing decisions.
  3. Simple valuation methods are more reliable than sophisticated models for evaluating businesses.

Buggy, Messy & all that

530 implied HN points • 30 Dec 21
  1. Buggy implies we make certain mistakes in specific settings due to our brain limitations.
  2. Messy refers to complex systems with unpredictable outcomes, not necessarily random.
  3. Approach life with caution, aiming for understanding, patience, and humility in navigating the complexities of the world.

My only ever short thesis

471 implied HN points • 31 Jan 22
  1. Investing is an apprenticeship business, learning from the wisdom of others is valuable.
  2. Identifying patterns common to bad businesses, like serial acquisitions and glib management, is crucial.
  3. Learning from history through pattern recognition can help navigate the investing learning curve and avoid costly mistakes.

The Rushmore Yardstick

628 implied HN points • 10 Aug 21
  1. Use the Rushmore Yardstick to learn from the best in a specific field.
  2. Focus on a small group of top experts to filter out noise and make better decisions.
  3. Apply the Rushmore Yardstick to different domains, like finance or psychology, to gain deeper understanding.

DCF in spirit, not letter

550 implied HN points • 05 Aug 21
  1. Valuation techniques are tools, focusing on principles behind DCF is more valuable than just the mechanics.
  2. Predictability, cash, and risk are crucial aspects in investment decisions.
  3. Adopting DCF principles in spirit, rather than strictly following the method, can lead to sound investment decisions.

A statutory warning for investing

412 implied HN points • 14 Dec 21
  1. Investing strategies go through cycles that impact returns
  2. As funds grow larger, their relative performance tends to decline
  3. Investors often follow recent trends, leading to inflated expectations

The most important question

471 implied HN points • 15 Sep 21
  1. When investing for the long-term, the most important question is 'Who am I backing here?'
  2. Big decisions made by top leaders can greatly impact a company's long-term trajectory.
  3. The person in charge with a history of sound judgment is crucial when evaluating an investment.

Makers Keepers: What can we learn from listed vaccine makers

569 implied HN points • 09 May 21
  1. Vaccine production and distribution is concentrated in North America and Europe, with very few doses reaching other parts of the world.
  2. Major vaccine makers in the West are significantly increasing their production in Q2, but the demand in North America and Europe is also expected to double.
  3. India is fortunate to have two credible vaccine manufacturers, Serum Institute and Bharat Biotech, which are playing a crucial role in ensuring vaccine availability domestically and globally.

Power to the absurd

373 implied HN points • 02 Nov 21
  1. Absurdity is not limited to just tech, it exists in various sectors like real estate and commodities.
  2. Absurdity can persist for a long time, causing frustration and confusion in the market.
  3. Identifying and acknowledging absurdity is important, even if it may not lead to immediate action.

Which game are you playing?

353 implied HN points • 11 Nov 21
  1. Investing can be seen as playing different formats of cricket - choose the one that suits you best.
  2. There are two main games in investing: voting machine vs. weighing machine.
  3. Be honest about which game you are playing to avoid potential dangers, especially at extremes.

Who am I backing here (longform pdf version)

353 implied HN points • 16 Oct 21
  1. The post is about a 5-part essay series on investing.
  2. The author has compiled the series into a longform PDF for those interested.
  3. No new content, just a convenient way to access the series.

How I don’t think

393 implied HN points • 13 Aug 21
  1. The author discusses thoughts on investing that they have never had before.
  2. Examples include focusing on consensus, beta, and market direction.
  3. The author uses humor to highlight common but potentially misguided investing considerations.

What I DON’T want to back

353 implied HN points • 27 Sep 21
  1. Avoid ownership constructs that disadvantage minority shareholders.
  2. Be cautious of bad promoters and bad context in investment decisions.
  3. Establish default settings for different ownership structures, like avoiding conglomerates or government-owned entities.

Abrupt ownership change

294 implied HN points • 12 Oct 21
  1. Invest in slow-changing, established businesses for long-term success
  2. Abrupt ownership changes can impact business direction, values, and culture
  3. Assess the impact of new owners on business risk and prospects

The danger of a single-stock spiel

314 implied HN points • 30 Aug 21
  1. In investing, anything can happen with a single stock at any point in time.
  2. It's important to understand that an investment process may work for the individual, but not necessarily for everyone.
  3. Individual stocks are risky, so investors should take full ownership of their decisions and be cautious of where their confidence is coming from.

Oh, to be judged by reality

314 implied HN points • 23 Jul 21
  1. Investors are judged by reality, not peer review or perception.
  2. Many in academia are judged by incestuous peer approval, not reality.
  3. Occupations where reality is the judge instill intellectual honesty and accountability.

Who am I backing here: ideal answer

275 implied HN points • 21 Sep 21
  1. The most important question for a long-term investor is who to back, based on decisions made by the top person.
  2. The ideal answer is a trustworthy, focused, longstanding promoter with aligned interests and a strong track record.
  3. Having a promoter who is focused, trustworthy, and longstanding is crucial for long-term success and investment stability.

Not ideal, but backable

235 implied HN points • 05 Oct 21
  1. The mindset of an owner matters more than the percentage of shares owned.
  2. Conglomerates can be acceptable if there is clear focus and alignment of economic interests.
  3. Exceptional, owner-like managers with a long track record can be reliable and backable.

Some thoughts on shareholder voting

235 implied HN points • 24 Aug 21
  1. Shareholder voting is complex and should be viewed holistically, not mechanistically.
  2. Proxy advisory firms play a crucial role in providing recommendations on shareholder voting.
  3. For long-term investors, proxy advisory recommendations are an input into a decision, not the decision itself.

Where have I seen this before?

235 implied HN points • 17 Aug 21
  1. The world can seem chaotic and repetitive.
  2. Investment practices can be disappointing and misleading.
  3. Industry pitfalls and failures are universal.

Jinks

353 implied HN points • 29 Dec 20
  1. Captain led team to victory against all odds
  2. Player valued for skill and mindset, not flashy image
  3. Success achieved through resilience and hard work

Long-term ≠ ∑ Short-terms

334 implied HN points • 05 Jan 21
  1. Complex systems cannot be reduced to neat parts and relationships.
  2. Trying to break down the future into short terms can be counterproductive.
  3. It's important to keep a fuzzy sense of long-term prospects, rather than focusing too much on precise short-term forecasts.

Big November election

353 implied HN points • 20 Oct 20
  1. The November election is important and has major implications for many people.
  2. There are two main candidates with their own flaws and challenges.
  3. Speculating on the outcome can be complex, especially without expertise in local politics.

Stock-market people, stop troubling real people

275 implied HN points • 12 Mar 21
  1. Stock-market analysts should let business managers focus on real work, not just quarterly earnings calls.
  2. Let businesses take care of real people first, and investors will benefit in the long run.
  3. During uncertain times, it's better to avoid overanalyzing and making uninformed guesses about businesses.