Buggy Humans in a Messy World

Buggy Humans in a Messy World is a Substack centered on psychology, complex social systems, and investing principles. It explores rational critical thinking, investment strategy, and the impact of human behavior in business and financial markets. Through diverse topics, it stresses the importance of understanding intrinsic value, managing risk, and learning from seasoned investors and historical patterns.

Investing Strategies Human Psychology Risk Management Critical Thinking Business Valuation Market Analysis Leadership and Decision Making Financial Education Corporate Governance Cultural Analysis

The hottest Substack posts of Buggy Humans in a Messy World

And their main takeaways

Investing Axioms

176 implied HN points • 15 Sep 20
  1. People don't change - a reliable axiom for assessing trustworthiness.
  2. Never one cockroach - a breach of trust is a red flag for more underlying issues.
  3. Investing requires income - evaluating future cash streams is essential.

Mathematics of investing and life

176 implied HN points • 01 Sep 20
  1. Extreme dispersion in outcomes is common due to multiplicative probabilities.
  2. Decision trees are useful in analyzing processes retrospectively for better decision-making.
  3. Avoid drawing conclusions from abnormal times as they are not representative of normalcy.

Ignore, avoid, reject

176 implied HN points • 30 Aug 20
  1. A wise investor focuses on ignoring, avoiding, and rejecting over 99% of what is presented.
  2. Ignore 'experts', forecasts, and well-packaged but empty information.
  3. Reject what you can't understand and what doesn't align with your standards.

Shades of grey

137 implied HN points • 03 Feb 21
  1. Success in a messy world requires comfort with ambiguity and uncertainty.
  2. Handling contradictions is crucial for sound decision-making.
  3. Embracing greyness and contradictions is key to navigating complexities.

Stockmarket-economy disconnect redux

117 implied HN points • 06 May 21
  1. Believing there's a 'right' level for stock markets is dangerous nonsense.
  2. It's psychologically painful to try to make sense of market fluctuations.
  3. Live in the moment, stay detached, and focus on actions over unknowable consequences.
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The Comedy of Investing

176 implied HN points • 16 Aug 20
  1. Investing involves understanding human nature and behavior
  2. Comedy can help make sense of complex concepts like bias and self-delusion
  3. Maintaining perspective and not sweating the small stuff is crucial in investing

Dravid vs Sehwag

176 implied HN points • 12 Aug 20
  1. There are various ways to be successful, but not all are equally reliable or repeatable.
  2. When it comes to making money or excelling, following a proven and teachable method improves the odds.
  3. Having a clear and coherent approach, like Dravid's batting method, increases the chances of success for most people trying to excel.

Principles I write by

176 implied HN points • 09 Aug 20
  1. No stock tips, no forecasts, no grand themes - I keep it simple.
  2. I write in first person, take responsibility, and keep professional details confidential.
  3. Praise by name, criticize by category - being straightforward in investing is key.

So, does ‘hold forever’ work?

137 implied HN points • 21 Jan 21
  1. Evaluate investments at portfolio level, not individually.
  2. Maintaining an 'owner mindset' with quality businesses can lead to favorable long-term outcomes.
  3. Having patience and inactivity in investing is psychologically challenging, but essential for success.

30% IRR nonsense

176 implied HN points • 03 Aug 20
  1. Be cautious of anyone promising high returns like 30% IRR.
  2. Use an 'outside view' to set realistic investing goals based on historical returns.
  3. Avoid unrealistic expectations in investing and business by grounding decisions in historical data and setting modest outperformance goals.

Generation Anti-frugal

176 implied HN points • 30 Jul 20
  1. No Indian tech company founded since 2005 has earned profit.
  2. Corporate traits can be surprisingly persistent and lasting.
  3. Current tech generation focuses on raising funds over profitability.

Favourite holding period is forever. Conditions apply.

137 implied HN points • 12 Jan 21
  1. The favorite holding period for outstanding businesses is forever.
  2. For this method to work, there are three main pre-conditions: a long time horizon, selectivity, and paranoid reassessment.
  3. Interpreting 'forever' as indefinite and adhering to better businesses for an extended period can benefit most investors.

Stockmarket-economy disconnect

176 implied HN points • 24 Jul 20
  1. There isn't a 'right' level for stock markets at any point in time.
  2. Trying to make sense of the market-economy disconnect is a dangerous belief.
  3. Live in the moment, stay detached, and focus on actions over unknown consequences.

Correlations

157 implied HN points • 25 Sep 20
  1. Inversely correlated behaviors include the frequency of TV appearances and the usefulness of opinions.
  2. Positively correlated actions involve having Omaha pilgrimage memorabilia and high portfolio turnover.
  3. There are correlations between going to sleep early and cliff-hanger finishes in cricket matches.

The real threat from AI

157 implied HN points • 11 Sep 20
  1. The author compares their small, simple car that indulges them to their big, smart car that nags and annoys with specific fault-finding messages.
  2. The small car, despite its flaws, is preferred because it lets the author be without constant reminders and warnings.
  3. The author humorously suggests that in a realistic version of Terminator, AI won't destroy humanity but rather nag it to death with constant alerts and notifications.

Excess deaths in Tamil Nadu

98 implied HN points • 23 Jun 21
  1. During the first wave of COVID-19 in Tamil Nadu, deaths were in line with historic trends, showing reliable reporting.
  2. In the second wave, Tamil Nadu experienced around 40,000 more deaths than expected by the end of May, but below some reported estimates.
  3. Analyzing excess deaths requires considering long-term trends and being cautious of inconsistent data and premature conclusions about undercounting.

Expert vs 'expert'

137 implied HN points • 04 Dec 20
  1. The post discusses the difference between a true expert and an 'expert'.
  2. The author includes a Seinfeld reference in their content.
  3. The content is noted to potentially fit well into a policy-focused discussion.

Absolute vs relative

117 implied HN points • 23 Feb 21
  1. Investment framework should be more absolute than relative for better returns
  2. Sound investing approaches evolve slowly and should be grounded in history
  3. Our thinking is overly influenced by immediacy and relative bias, needing a counterbalance with an absolute investing framework

I’m an idiot

157 implied HN points • 10 Aug 20
  1. Competence is not just about IQ or credentials.
  2. Calibration, knowing one's limits, is a crucial skill.
  3. Inverted competence - focusing on avoiding mistakes - is essential for success.

Ignoring 'experts'

157 implied HN points • 08 Aug 20
  1. Good investors spend most of their time ignoring stuff, especially nonsense from armchair commentators.
  2. Real experts can be identified by their tangible, long-term outperformance in their respective domains.
  3. Value credibility over frequency when evaluating experts, focusing on under-confident individuals with practical experience.

Pictures, few words: Under-rated ratios

98 implied HN points • 29 May 21
  1. In investing, balance sheet & accounting quality are more important than profit & loss
  2. Adequacy of testing is more revealing than the results of testing
  3. Analyze state-wise testing disparities with pictures to draw your own inferences

Margin of safety 2.0

157 implied HN points • 02 Aug 20
  1. Margin of safety should be an error-proofing mindset, not just a final valuation check.
  2. Appreciating errors at every stage can lead to more accurate results.
  3. Every step of analysis should have built-in safety measures before reaching the final valuation stage.

Spotting crooks

157 implied HN points • 28 Jul 20
  1. Look out for anomalies in companies' behavior and financial metrics.
  2. Question things that seem too good to be true or out of place.
  3. Recognize red flags early to avoid investing in companies that may not be as they seem.

Tyranny of distance

98 implied HN points • 27 Apr 21
  1. Accessibility and relatability can distort our perception of severity.
  2. Distance, whether geographical or psychological, influences our perception.
  3. Perceptions, even if based on false claims, can impact reality and lead to harmful outcomes.

Picture, few words: Mumbai vaccination pace & coverage

98 implied HN points • 18 Apr 21
  1. Mumbai's vaccination pace is slow but steadily improving with coverage exceeding that of all-India
  2. The vaccination rate for different age groups is increasing with a projected coverage around 70% by end-April
  3. The pace of adoption for new initiatives is affected by various factors, and while interventions can help, dramatic shifts are hard to achieve

Were over 80% of Mumbai's recent Covid deaths preventable?

98 implied HN points • 04 Apr 21
  1. Over 80% of recent Covid deaths in Mumbai could have been prevented if those eligible had been vaccinated earlier.
  2. Vaccination execution in Mumbai could have been better to prevent more deaths.
  3. Efforts are needed to address vaccine hesitancy and improve accessibility for saving lives.

Believer vs skeptic

137 implied HN points • 04 Aug 20
  1. Investing requires optimism and belief in long-term progress despite short-term negativity.
  2. Balancing macro optimism with micro skepticism is key for successful investing.
  3. Maintaining a sense of wonder and skepticism is essential for sound investment decisions.

Make America Late Again

117 implied HN points • 06 Nov 20
  1. USA may seek RBI's help for speedy note-counting after demonetization.
  2. Herd immunity may eliminate need for lockdown if Covid is ignored long enough.
  3. There's humor in imagining Election Commission in India involving India Post in the election process.

Happy Festivus

98 implied HN points • 23 Dec 20
  1. The author's Festivus grievances include issues with China, dishonest investors, and fake academics.
  2. The author criticizes certain individuals who impose their beliefs without experiencing real-life challenges.
  3. The author expresses frustration with media's focus on negative voices post-2020.

An ode to Indian promoters

117 implied HN points • 29 Jul 20
  1. Indian promoters are under-appreciated for their exceptional work ethic and dedication.
  2. The best promoters prioritize the company's interests over their own.
  3. Promoters in India demonstrate a unique blend of long-term vision, risk management, and honesty.

Welcome, fellow buggy human

117 implied HN points • 18 Jul 20
  1. The writer shares essays on investing, business, psychology, and comedy.
  2. The blog serves as a second home for the author's writings.
  3. Readers can sign up to be notified about new essays published every 1-2 weeks.

Analysis of excess deaths during first-wave

58 implied HN points • 28 Jun 21
  1. The analysis of excess deaths during India's first-wave of COVID-19 did not show significantly above-trend deaths.
  2. Data inconsistencies in reporting deaths make it challenging to derive accurate estimates and draw definitive conclusions.
  3. It's important to approach excess death analysis cautiously and not rely solely on headlines or precise numbers.

False alarm

98 implied HN points • 06 Aug 20
  1. Negativity instinct can harm financial health by leading to bad investment decisions.
  2. Weighting history over headlines can prevent fear-induced financial downfall.
  3. Being a glass-half-empty investor involves skepticism but also trust in good businesses at sensible prices.

Asimov’s laws of investing

98 implied HN points • 01 Aug 20
  1. Investors should prioritize a do-no-harm mindset in their interactions with companies.
  2. In matters related to the core business, investors should trust the judgment of experienced managers.
  3. When venturing outside the core, investors should focus on limiting downsides and maintaining the strength of the core business.

Principles of Sound Judgment: RBI edition

78 implied HN points • 30 Nov 20
  1. Make incremental changes to manage failures in a high-risk sector like banking.
  2. Focus on choosing better options in a messy world instead of just good ones.
  3. Maintain flexibility and prioritize actions over words for sound judgment, especially in uncertain environments.

Picture, few words: Encouraging trend in Mumbai 60+

58 implied HN points • 02 May 21
  1. Proportion of COVID-19 fatalities among the 60+ age group decreasing in Mumbai, possibly due to vaccination coverage
  2. Vaccination coverage in the 60+ age group may have contributed to saving lives in Mumbai
  3. Priority vaccination for the 45+ age group in Mumbai has helped in reducing COVID-19 deaths among older populations

No covid extremism, please

58 implied HN points • 21 Mar 21
  1. Questioning extreme measures during a covid uptick
  2. Highlighting the unclear basis for extreme actions
  3. Emphasizing the importance of a sound basis for taking extreme steps

Continuing covid case-count charade

58 implied HN points • 19 Mar 21
  1. Reported covid case-counts may not be accurate due to underestimation in detected cases
  2. Emphasizing hospitalizations and critical patients over reported case counts can lead to better decision-making
  3. Testing should focus on timely clinical care for vulnerable individuals, rather than solely on counting cases

Calm the f#*k down (pictorial edition)

58 implied HN points • 18 Mar 21
  1. The importance of staying calm in challenging times
  2. The need to focus on the big picture rather than getting caught up in insignificant details
  3. Acknowledging the efforts of everyone during difficult situations and maintaining a positive outlook

Where I got greedy-when-fearful wrong

58 implied HN points • 08 Mar 21
  1. Context matters in decision-making.
  2. During a crisis, focus on core business rather than opportunistic distractions.
  3. For business owners, being cautious during uncertain times is essential.