Buggy Humans in a Messy World

Buggy Humans in a Messy World is a Substack centered on psychology, complex social systems, and investing principles. It explores rational critical thinking, investment strategy, and the impact of human behavior in business and financial markets. Through diverse topics, it stresses the importance of understanding intrinsic value, managing risk, and learning from seasoned investors and historical patterns.

Investing Strategies Human Psychology Risk Management Critical Thinking Business Valuation Market Analysis Leadership and Decision Making Financial Education Corporate Governance Cultural Analysis

The hottest Substack posts of Buggy Humans in a Messy World

And their main takeaways

I know it when I see it

78 implied HN points • 18 Aug 20
  1. Holistic thinking is valuable in complex systems
  2. Great businesses have a unique interconnectedness that fuels their success
  3. Stability and maintaining current variables can be key to staying successful

A Nudge for Made in India

78 implied HN points • 15 Aug 20
  1. Proposing a branding shortcut like a 'Made in India tick' to help consumers choose Indian products
  2. Suggesting criteria and a methodology behind the symbol to ensure 'Made in India' is true in spirit
  3. Acknowledging potential downsides like bureaucratic challenges and suggesting piloting the system in select categories

Brainworms

78 implied HN points • 07 Aug 20
  1. Questioning the credibility and qualifications of individuals in certain professions.
  2. Highlighting the importance of transparency and accountability in providing stock advice.
  3. Humorous observations on the finance industry and its practices.

Silly Shorts

78 implied HN points • 26 Jul 20
  1. The Silly Shorts series features short-form essays on psychological quirks.
  2. The essays are meant to be humorous and not deeply thought-out.
  3. The content may veer away from investing and touch on various observations and grievances.

NVT op-ed: Bloody New Year in Trump’s America

58 implied HN points • 07 Jan 21
  1. The op-ed highlights rising intolerance in America due to divisions and conflicts.
  2. The piece calls for a healing touch and consensus-based rule from the incoming president.
  3. If America can't address its issues, there's a suggestion for intervention from the UN Human Rights Council.
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Additional insurance-claim evidence

39 implied HN points • 03 Jun 21
  1. New evidence supports that life-insurance claims during the covid-first-wave align with historical trends.
  2. Data from government-supported insurance schemes indicates a consistent trend in claims compared to previous years.
  3. The number of covid-related death claims approved in FY21 is proportional to the number of covid-related deaths.

On widening gap between doses

39 implied HN points • 14 May 21
  1. Widening the gap between vaccine doses could allow for vaccinating nearly twice as many people in the coming months.
  2. Extending the gap between doses from 6-8 weeks to 12-16 weeks is a proposed strategy with potential benefits in vaccine administration.
  3. Delaying the administration of 2nd doses was inevitable, and officially extending the gap provides room to manage vaccine distribution more effectively.

Area under curve vs height of curve

39 implied HN points • 01 May 21
  1. The second wave of COVID-19 in Mumbai is more intense than the first wave.
  2. Looking at cumulative numbers can provide a different perspective than focusing on peak intensity.
  3. Mumbai's second wave may end up being more intense but result in fewer overall deaths compared to the first wave.

Picture, few words: Regional disparities in covid severity

39 implied HN points • 25 Apr 21
  1. Some states in India have severe regional disparities in COVID severity.
  2. Delhi is experiencing extreme severity, while Maharashtra and Chattisgarh are also doing poorly.
  3. Some states in India are doing better than they were in 2020, including Andhra, Assam, J&K, Kerala, Orissa, TN, and West Bengal.

Kamala

58 implied HN points • 14 Aug 20
  1. The text discusses how Indians may be talking about Biden's VP candidate, Kamala Harris.
  2. There is mention of a complex conversation at a Tam wedding this year with specific references to familial connections and geography.
  3. The humor and cultural nuances in the conversation may involve multi-dimensional references that could be lost in translation.

Can we assess real-world vaccine efficacy in Indian context?

39 implied HN points • 15 Apr 21
  1. US, UK, and Israel have gathered evidence on real-world vaccine efficacy.
  2. Assessing real-world vaccine efficacy in India could help with vaccine hesitancy.
  3. Healthcare workers, particularly doctors, can provide valuable data for assessing vaccine efficacy in India.

How many Covid deaths in Vaccine Pradesh?

39 implied HN points • 11 Apr 21
  1. No Covid deaths reported in Vaccine Pradesh despite large number of vaccinated individuals.
  2. Media tends to highlight negative stories, but lack of reported deaths speaks volumes.
  3. Urges eligible individuals to get vaccinated and move to areas with successful vaccination programs.

Picture, few words: Regional disparities in covid severity

39 implied HN points • 11 Apr 21
  1. Worst-3 states in India have high covid severity like USA or Germany.
  2. Rest of India is over 10 times better than the Worst-3 states.
  3. Most states in India are doing better than the UK in managing covid.

What % of Mumbai’s most vulnerable already have immunity?

39 implied HN points • 25 Mar 21
  1. An estimated two-thirds of Mumbai's most vulnerable population already have immunity.
  2. Around 45-50% of elderly in Mumbai have acquired immunity through previous virus exposure.
  3. Approximately 20% of elderly in Mumbai have acquired immunity through vaccination.

A picture & maybe a trend

19 implied HN points • 25 Apr 21
  1. Percentage of Mumbai covid deaths in 60+ age-cohort has slightly decreased recently.
  2. The trend shows a dip in the percentage from 76% to 67% in the last 2 weeks, possibly due to vaccination.
  3. It's too early to definitively link the decrease to vaccination or other factors.

Picture, few words: It's Tika Utsav time

19 implied HN points • 11 Apr 21
  1. Vaccination strategy targets highest-risk groups based on age and co-morbidities.
  2. Over 30% of 60+ in India vaccinated, with over 50% in cities like Mumbai.
  3. By sticking to current strategy, half of India's most vulnerable group may be vaccinated by month-end.

A picture, and a few words

19 implied HN points • 30 Mar 21
  1. The post discusses regional differences in Covid severity.
  2. The analysis updates regularly to highlight outlier states.
  3. The use of a specific metric aids in inter-regional comparison.

A guide to navigating quarterly noise-flow

1 HN point • 15 Jan 24
💰 Finance Investing Analysis Business strategy Market behavior Risk management
  1. The most reliable path to adequate returns involves buying good businesses at fair valuations and holding onto them for the long term.
  2. View each quarter as part of a continuing trajectory instead of in isolation, placing importance on long-term trends over short-term fluctuations.
  3. Focus on controllables like relative performance, balance sheet metrics, and wider error bands around long-term trends for better analysis of quarterly results.

A study of insurer death-claims during covid first-wave

0 implied HN points • 17 May 21
  1. Data suggests that 9MFY21 death-claim growth is in line with or even below trend of prior six years
  2. LIC and private-insurers show divergent trends
  3. Analyzing death-claim data across life-insurers can offer insights into trends and comparisons