CalculatedRisk Newsletter

The CalculatedRisk Newsletter focuses on in-depth analysis and updates on the real estate market, including housing sales, mortgage rates, housing inventory, credit scores, market dynamics, policy proposals, and economic implications of events like the pandemic on housing. It combines data-driven insights with forecasts and trends.

Real Estate Market Analysis Housing Sales and Inventory Mortgage Rates and Debt Economic Trends Affecting Real Estate Policy and Regulatory Changes Market Forecasts and Predictions

The hottest Substack posts of CalculatedRisk Newsletter

And their main takeaways

Pandemic Economics, Housing and Monetary Policy: Part 2

62 implied HN points • 13 Mar 23
  1. The post discusses pandemic economics, housing, and monetary policy.
  2. Goldman Sachs economists don't expect the FOMC to deliver a rate hike in March.
  3. Readers can access the full post archives with a 7-day free trial.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in March

57 implied HN points • 07 Apr 23
  1. Closed sales in March showed a year-over-year decline for the 19th consecutive month.
  2. The report tracks about 40 US local housing markets, including states and metropolitan areas.
  3. Sales closed in March were primarily for contracts signed in January and February.
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NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.81 million SAAR in July

95 implied HN points • 18 Aug 22
  1. Existing-home sales decreased to 4.81 million SAAR in July.
  2. This marks the sixth consecutive month of declining sales according to the National Association of REALTORS.
  3. All four major U.S. regions reported both month-over-month and year-over-year sales declines.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 4.6% Below Peak

57 implied HN points • 30 Mar 23
  1. Inflation adjusted house prices are currently 4.6% below the peak.
  2. The price-to-rent index is 7.9% below the recent peak.
  3. Inflation adjusted indexes have been declining for eight months.

Could 6% to 7% 30-Year Mortgage Rates be the "New Normal"?

47 implied HN points • 07 Jun 23
  1. Real estate agents suggest refinancing at lower rates in the future.
  2. Predictions foresee 6-7% mortgage rates becoming the new standard.
  3. 30-year mortgage rates may not drop significantly without a crisis.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in January

62 implied HN points • 17 Feb 23
  1. The post provides analysis on local housing markets in the US for January.
  2. Approximately 40 local housing markets in the US are being tracked including states and metropolitan areas.
  3. The author will continue to update the data as more information becomes available throughout the month.

NMHC: "Apartment Market Continues to Loosen"

52 implied HN points • 27 Apr 23
  1. The apartment market is experiencing loosening conditions
  2. Leading indicators suggest more weakness for rents and apartment vacancies
  3. Transactions in the apartment market are decreasing due to economic uncertainty

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in July

38 implied HN points • 08 Aug 23
  1. This post discusses the early reporting of local housing markets in July.
  2. Closed sales in July mainly involved contracts signed in May and June.
  3. The author tracks around 40 local housing markets in the US, updating tables as new data is released.

New Home Sales at 683,000 Annual Rate in April

47 implied HN points • 23 May 23
  1. New home sales in April were at a rate of 683,000 annually.
  2. Median new home price has dropped by 15.3% from its peak.
  3. The previous three months of new home sales data were revised down.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in February

57 implied HN points • 08 Mar 23
  1. February showed a YoY decline in closed sales for the 18th consecutive month.
  2. Data from February reflects mostly contracts signed in December and January.
  3. The author tracks around 40 US housing markets, including states and metropolitan areas.

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in May

43 implied HN points • 16 Jun 23
  1. Existing home sales in May were projected to be at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.25 million.
  2. This rate was a 0.7% decrease from April's estimate.
  3. The data was based on over 225,000 transactions reported by local realtors/MLS across the country.

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in February

52 implied HN points • 17 Mar 23
  1. The article discusses an early look at existing home sales in February.
  2. The author tracks about 40 local housing markets in the US, providing updates on states and metropolitan areas.
  3. To access the full post and archives, readers can start a 7-day free trial of the CalculatedRisk Newsletter.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in April

43 implied HN points • 15 May 23
  1. This post discusses local housing markets in April, focusing on 40 markets in the US.
  2. The closed sales in April were mainly related to contracts signed in February and March.
  3. The data in the tables is updated throughout the month as new information becomes available.

Update: Some "Good News" for Homebuilders

52 implied HN points • 15 Feb 23
  1. Homebuilders can expect a quick uptick in activity after an interest rate-induced slowdown.
  2. New home sales history shows that recovery usually follows a slowdown caused by interest rates.
  3. The graph suggests that new home sales are updated through the December release.

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in July

76 implied HN points • 22 Aug 22
  1. Existing home sales in July saw a sharp year-over-year decline.
  2. New listings were down year-over-year in July.
  3. Active listings were up sharply.

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in February

47 implied HN points • 24 Mar 23
  1. Existing home sales in February saw a sharp year-over-year decline.
  2. Active inventory increased significantly from last year but remains relatively low.
  3. New listings for homes were down compared to last year.

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in March

43 implied HN points • 24 Apr 23
  1. Sales have decreased, while inventory and new listings have gone up compared to last year.
  2. Author tracks local US housing markets monthly to monitor housing market changes.
  3. Readers can access full post archives with a 7-day free trial.

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in October

62 implied HN points • 21 Nov 22
  1. Existing home sales in October saw a sharp year-over-year decline.
  2. New listings were down in October as many potential sellers are staying put due to low mortgage rates.
  3. Active inventory increased significantly year-over-year in October.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in February

47 implied HN points • 14 Mar 23
  1. Author tracks local housing markets in the US.
  2. Closed sales in February are mostly from contracts signed in December and January.
  3. Readers can access full post archives with a 7-day free trial.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 4.2% Below Peak

38 implied HN points • 01 Jun 23
  1. Inflation-adjusted house prices are currently 4.2% below the previous peak.
  2. The price-to-rent index is 8.3% lower than its most recent peak.
  3. Real house prices have remained stable due to slow increases in CPI less shelter over the last six months.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in March

43 implied HN points • 11 Apr 23
  1. The post analyzes local housing markets in March and tracks 40 markets in the US.
  2. Closed sales in March mostly reflect contracts signed in January and February.
  3. The article offers a 7-day free trial for access to full post archives.

A Few Comments on Commercial Real Estate

43 implied HN points • 10 Apr 23
  1. The office sector may see an increase in delinquencies.
  2. Commercial real estate is not just about office and retail space; there are many other sectors like lodging, healthcare, and warehouses.
  3. Most of the investment in CRE since 2000 is in sectors other than offices and malls.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.9% Below Peak

47 implied HN points • 03 Mar 23
  1. Inflation adjusted house prices are currently 3.9% below the peak.
  2. The price-to-rent index is 7.1% below its recent peak.
  3. Inflation adjusted house prices have been decreasing for seven months in real terms.