CalculatedRisk Newsletter

The CalculatedRisk Newsletter focuses on in-depth analysis and updates on the real estate market, including housing sales, mortgage rates, housing inventory, credit scores, market dynamics, policy proposals, and economic implications of events like the pandemic on housing. It combines data-driven insights with forecasts and trends.

Real Estate Market Analysis Housing Sales and Inventory Mortgage Rates and Debt Economic Trends Affecting Real Estate Policy and Regulatory Changes Market Forecasts and Predictions

The hottest Substack posts of CalculatedRisk Newsletter

And their main takeaways

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.8% Below Peak

52 implied HN points • 28 Jun 23
  1. Inflation adjusted house prices are 3.8% below peak.
  2. The price-to-rent index is 8.4% below recent peak.
  3. It's important to consider real prices and affordability when analyzing house prices.
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Goldman Sees US House Prices Falling 5% to 10%

100 implied HN points • 30 Sep 22
  1. Goldman Sachs predicts US house prices could fall 5-10%.
  2. Weakness in the housing market and high mortgage rates contribute to the forecast.
  3. Other countries may also see declines in home prices based on economic models.

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in April

57 implied HN points • 22 May 23
  1. California home sales down 36% YoY in April
  2. Median prices in California also down 7.8% YoY in April
  3. Tracking local housing market data to observe changes

Rents Falling Faster than "Seasonality Alone"

86 implied HN points • 01 Dec 22
  1. Rents are falling faster than just due to seasonal factors.
  2. Expect a further slowdown in year-over-year rents in the upcoming months.
  3. The rental market is experiencing rapid changes.

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in January

71 implied HN points • 22 Feb 23
  1. Existing home sales in January saw a sharp year-over-year decline.
  2. Active inventory increased significantly compared to last year but is still low historically.
  3. Local housing markets in the US are being tracked, with about 40 markets covered, including states and metropolitan areas.

New Home Sales at 640,000 Annual Rate in February

66 implied HN points • 23 Mar 23
  1. New Home Sales reached 640,000 annually in February.
  2. Average prices for new homes decreased by 4.5% compared to last year.
  3. Sales figures for the previous three months were revised downward.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.00 million SAAR in January

71 implied HN points • 21 Feb 23
  1. Existing-home sales decreased to 4.00 million SAAR in January.
  2. Median prices are down 13.2% from the peak in June 2022.
  3. Existing-home sales fell for the twelfth straight month in January, with varied increases and declines in different U.S. regions.

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in March

62 implied HN points • 14 Apr 23
  1. The post discusses an early look at existing home sales in March.
  2. The analysis tracks about 40 local housing markets in the US, including states and metropolitan areas.
  3. Closed sales in March primarily stemmed from contracts signed in January and February.

House Prices: Rust or Bust?

66 implied HN points • 20 Mar 23
  1. The median house price might decrease year over year in February.
  2. The current housing market situation resembles the period from 1978 to 1982.
  3. Housing economist Tom Lawler projects higher existing home sales than the consensus forecast.

Remote Work and Household Formation

62 implied HN points • 12 Apr 23
  1. Household formation drives housing demand for both homeownership and rentals.
  2. Work-from-home is a key driver of household formation.
  3. Analysis of remote work's impact on household formation has significant implications.

Net Immigration and Household Formation

71 implied HN points • 10 Feb 23
  1. Household formation surged during the pandemic, increasing demand for homeownership and rental units.
  2. The recent slowdown in household formation has led to lower demand, resulting in falling house prices and rents.
  3. Net immigration plays a crucial role in impacting household formation trends.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.4% Below Peak

19 implied HN points • 05 Mar 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Inflation Affordability Indexes Housing
  1. Real house prices in the US are currently 2.4% below the recent peak, indicating a slight decline in prices adjusted for inflation.
  2. It's important to consider the price-to-rent ratio to understand the affordability of housing markets.
  3. National house prices are historically high after being 10.2% above the bubble peak level, despite the market's ups and downs over 17 years.

Early Look at Local Housing Markets in May

52 implied HN points • 06 Jun 23
  1. The housing market sales in May were slightly less down year over year compared to April.
  2. Data is being tracked in about 40 local housing markets in the US, including states and metropolitan areas.
  3. Closed sales in May mostly reflect contracts signed in March and April.

Year-over-year Rent Growth Continues to Decelerate

57 implied HN points • 01 May 23
  1. Rent growth is slowing down year-over-year.
  2. Tracking rents helps understand the housing market dynamics.
  3. Increased household formation in 2021 was linked to a surge in rents.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in November

81 implied HN points • 07 Dec 22
  1. The post provides an initial look at local housing markets in November.
  2. Closed sales in November were mainly for contracts signed in September and October.
  3. The post tracks about 35 local housing markets in the US, including states and metropolitan areas.

Year-over-year Rent Growth Continues to Decelerate

66 implied HN points • 02 Mar 23
  1. Year-over-year rent growth is slowing down
  2. Apartment rents fell in major metro areas over last six months
  3. Changes in rental market observed from 2021 to first half of 2022

Freddie Mac House Price Index Declines for 7th Consecutive Month in January

66 implied HN points • 01 Mar 23
  1. Freddie Mac House Price Index declined for the 7th consecutive month in January.
  2. 37 states and D.C. experienced price declines on a Seasonally Adjusted basis.
  3. The index is a repeat sales index that includes appraisals, focusing on loans bought by Fannie and Freddie.

Measures of Shelter in the CPI and PCE price indexes Still Increasing

66 implied HN points • 27 Feb 23
  1. Measures of shelter in the CPI and PCE price indexes are still increasing.
  2. The increase in these measures is not solely due to new leases, but also due to renewals.
  3. Rent prices are being impacted by factors beyond just the normal lag between new leases and renewals.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in August

38 implied HN points • 07 Sep 23
  1. The post provides a first look at early reporting local housing markets in August.
  2. The closed sales in August were mostly for contracts signed in June and July.
  3. The author tracks about 40 local housing markets in the US and updates tables as more data is released.

Lawler: Update on American Homes for Rent (AMH)

19 implied HN points • 27 Feb 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Investments Rental market Inflation Earnings
  1. American Homes for Rent (AMH) saw a decline in occupancy rate last quarter, contrasting with Invitation Homes.
  2. The average monthly rents of INVH and AMH seem to lead the CPI's Rent of Primary Residence by about two quarters, and rent growth has remained above the overall inflation rate.
  3. Rental inflation remains elevated for many single-family renters despite certain limitations in the rent trend comparisons and geographic focuses of these companies.