CalculatedRisk Newsletter

The CalculatedRisk Newsletter focuses on in-depth analysis and updates on the real estate market, including housing sales, mortgage rates, housing inventory, credit scores, market dynamics, policy proposals, and economic implications of events like the pandemic on housing. It combines data-driven insights with forecasts and trends.

Real Estate Market Analysis Housing Sales and Inventory Mortgage Rates and Debt Economic Trends Affecting Real Estate Policy and Regulatory Changes Market Forecasts and Predictions

The hottest Substack posts of CalculatedRisk Newsletter

And their main takeaways

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 4.6% Below Peak

33 implied HN points • 26 Apr 23
  1. Inflation adjusted house prices are 4.6% below peak.
  2. Price-to-rent index is 8.4% below recent peak.
  3. Inflation adjusted indexes have declined for nine consecutive months in real terms.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in January

38 implied HN points • 13 Feb 23
  1. NAR reported a rebound in home sales in January
  2. The post tracks local housing markets in the US, including states and metropolitan areas
  3. Closed sales in January were mainly for contracts signed in November and December

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.0% year-over-year in July; New all-time High

19 implied HN points • 26 Sep 23
  1. The National House Price Index was up by 1.0% year-over-year in July, reaching a new all-time high.
  2. The FHFA House Price Index showed a 4.6% increase from July 2022 to July 2023, with prices up by 0.8% in July.
  3. The Case-Shiller House Prices trended upwards in July, with the Composite 10 and Composite 20 indices both reaching new all-time highs and showing year-over-year increases of 0.8% and 0.1% respectively.

The Rapid Increase in Rents

86 implied HN points • 12 Sep 21
  1. Rapid increase in rents, especially for single-family homes.
  2. Three main questions: What is happening with rents? Why are rents increasing rapidly? What will happen?
  3. Housing economist Tom Lawler's insights on rent trends.

Lawler: More on Investor Purchases of Single-Family Homes

57 implied HN points • 09 Jan 22
  1. There has been a surge in investor purchases of single-family homes since last spring.
  2. This surge has surprised many housing analysts and caused them to rethink the factors influencing housing strength and prices.
  3. Reports from Redfin and CoreLogic have contributed to this reevaluation.
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Housing: A Look at "Affordability" Indexes

52 implied HN points • 06 Sep 21
  1. Common measures to compare house prices include real house prices, price-to-rent ratio, and house prices to median income.
  2. Affordability indexes calculate housing affordability based on income and mortgage rates.
  3. Consider subscribing to CalculatedRisk Newsletter for more insights on housing affordability indexes.

Will 4% Mortgage Rates "Halt the Housing Market"?

43 implied HN points • 17 Oct 21
  1. Ivy Zelman has a solid track record in new housing.
  2. She primarily focuses on new housing, both single and multi-family.
  3. There is an interview with Ivy Zelman about where she sees the housing market heading.

The Household Mystery

38 implied HN points • 15 Dec 21
  1. Strong demand for owner occupied and rental units is leading to rapidly rising home prices and rents.
  2. There is a significant increase in household formation in 2021, with demand outpacing supply.
  3. Demand for homeownership has been on the rise recently.

Housing: Inventory is the Key Metric in 2021

43 implied HN points • 30 Aug 21
  1. Inventory is a key metric for housing in 2021.
  2. Watch for seasonal patterns in inventory levels.
  3. Existing home 'for sale' inventory is important to monitor.

Housing and Demographics: The Next Big Shift

43 implied HN points • 20 Aug 21
  1. Demographics are key in predicting housing trends.
  2. Understanding demographic shifts can help foresee changes in the housing market.
  3. Keeping an eye on demographic trends is crucial for anticipating shifts in the housing sector.

Household Formation Drives Housing Demand

33 implied HN points • 16 Sep 21
  1. Strong demand for housing units is driving up home prices and rents.
  2. Household formation has significantly increased in 2021, outpacing supply.
  3. Zillow reported on the housing market transition from high demand to a more moderate pace.

2022 Housing Forecasts: Second Look

28 implied HN points • 29 Nov 21
  1. Inventory levels will be crucial in determining new housing starts and price changes in 2022.
  2. Low inventory could lead to more housing starts and price hikes.
  3. Higher inventory might result in fewer starts and less price appreciation.

Existing-Home Sales Increased to 6.34 million in October

23 implied HN points • 22 Nov 21
  1. Existing-home sales increased to 6.34 million in October
  2. Median house price growth decelerated for the fifth consecutive month
  3. National Association of Realtors reported increase in existing-home sales for two straight months, with variations across U.S. regions

Inventory will Tell the Tale

23 implied HN points • 10 Nov 21
  1. The author believes inventory is key in predicting the future of the housing market.
  2. There are concerns about house prices declining or growth slowing.
  3. Questions exist about a housing shortage and the impact of rising mortgage rates.

The Rapid Increase in Rents Continues

23 implied HN points • 01 Nov 21
  1. The rapid increase in rents continues.
  2. New leases were up sharply year-over-year in September.
  3. Data shows that rents are accelerating.

Case-Shiller National Index up Record 19.8% Year-over-year in August

23 implied HN points • 26 Oct 21
  1. The Case-Shiller National Index had a record 19.8% year-over-year increase in August.
  2. The author had anticipated this increase due to the timing of the data release.
  3. The post suggests the possibility of a deceleration in house price growth.

Final Look: Local Housing Markets in September

23 implied HN points • 24 Oct 21
  1. The post analyzes local housing markets in September
  2. The data includes active inventory and new listings
  3. Readers can access the full post archives with a 7-day free trial

Will House Prices Increase "a further 16% by the end of 2022"?

23 implied HN points • 12 Oct 21
  1. Goldman Sachs predicts a 16% increase in US house prices by the end of 2022.
  2. The forecast by Goldman Sachs has created a buzz on Twitter.
  3. To read the full forecast, consider subscribing to the CalculatedRisk Newsletter.

House Prices Increase Sharply in July

23 implied HN points • 28 Sep 21
  1. House prices saw a significant increase in July.
  2. The Case-Shiller National Index rose by a record 19.7% year-over-year in July.
  3. The month-over-month increase in the Case-Shiller Index was 1.55% in July.

House Price to Median Income

23 implied HN points • 14 Sep 21
  1. Median household income decreased by 2.9% from 2019 to 2020.
  2. This is the first significant decline in median household income since 2011.
  3. Census Bureau released data showing that median household income was $67,521 in 2020.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in December

19 implied HN points • 13 Jan 22
  1. This post is about analyzing local housing markets in December.
  2. Around 30 housing markets in the US are tracked, including states and metropolitan areas.
  3. The inventory is a key indicator to watch for signs of the housing market slowing down.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in December

19 implied HN points • 10 Jan 22
  1. This post focuses on the local housing markets in December.
  2. The author is tracking about 30 local housing markets in the US, updating the tables throughout the month.
  3. The author believes that if the housing market is slowing down, it will show up in inventory.

Supply Chain Disruptions and Housing Inventory

19 implied HN points • 20 Dec 21
  1. The most housing units under construction since 1973.
  2. Questioning if supply chain issues are impacting existing home inventory.
  3. The graph shows housing starts under construction.

The Home ATM in Q3 2021

19 implied HN points • 09 Dec 21
  1. Many homeowners borrowed heavily against their home equity during the housing bubble, leading to negative equity when prices dropped.
  2. The concept of the 'Home ATM' refers to using home equity as a source of borrowing.
  3. Understanding Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW) is essential in examining the housing market's dynamics.

Lawler: Updates on Key Drivers of US Population Growth

19 implied HN points • 08 Dec 21
  1. US population growth was at its lowest in over a century from 7/1/2020 to 7/1/2021
  2. Data on US births, deaths, and immigration indicated growth of just 486,290 residents during that period
  3. The article discusses insights from housing economist Tom Lawler on key drivers of US population growth

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in November

19 implied HN points • 07 Dec 21
  1. This post looks at local housing markets in November.
  2. The focus is on tracking 30 local housing markets in the US, including states and metropolitan areas.
  3. The author's view is that if the housing market is slowing, it will show up in inventory.

Rents Still Increasing Sharply

19 implied HN points • 02 Dec 21
  1. Rents are still increasing sharply.
  2. Rent increases have been slowing down seasonally.
  3. Recent data shows that national rents grew by 0.1% this month.

The "Household Conundrum"

19 implied HN points • 20 Nov 21
  1. The post discusses the 'Household Conundrum'.
  2. Housing economist Tom Lawler predicts National Association of Realtors (NAR) data.
  3. Readers can access more content with a 7-day free trial.

Housing Predictions: Guesses and the Data

19 implied HN points • 18 Nov 21
  1. The post discusses housing predictions and the importance of data analysis.
  2. Guesses in science are followed by computations and comparison to reality.
  3. Subscribers can access the full content and archives of the CalculatedRisk Newsletter.

Measuring Rents

19 implied HN points • 03 Oct 21
  1. The post discusses the increase in rents and its impact on inflation.
  2. Measuring rents historically involves using Owners' equivalent rent of residences (OER).
  3. There is an invitation to subscribe for a free trial to access more content.

Comments on August New Home Sales

19 implied HN points • 24 Sep 21
  1. Record number of homes have not been started - 105 thousand.
  2. New home sales increased to 740,000 annual rate in August.
  3. Previous three months of data were revised up.

Single Family Built-for-Rent Almost Doubled Since 2020

2 HN points • 20 Feb 24
💼 Business Real Estate Housing Market Economic Trends
  1. The number of single-family units built for rent almost doubled from 2020 to 2023, showing a significant increase in this housing trend.
  2. About 18% of the built-for-rent units started in 2023 were single-family units, highlighting a shift in the housing market.
  3. While single-family completions built for sale saw a decrease, completed units built for rent were up 21% year-over-year, potentially affecting rental market supply and rent prices.