Jay’s Substack

Jay's Substack focuses on comprehensive analysis and insights into the cryptocurrency market, including trends, trade strategies, the impact of global economic policies on crypto, and in-depth examinations of cryptocurrency platforms and technologies. It features regular contributions from notable figures like Arthur Hayes and discussions on blockchain innovations.

Cryptocurrency Trading Strategies Global Economic Policies and Crypto Blockchain Technology and Innovations Cryptocurrency Market Analysis Investment in Crypto Assets Crypto and Tech Company Strategies

The hottest Substack posts of Jay’s Substack

And their main takeaways

MSTR: Converting index investing into a BTC bid

219 implied HN points • 11 Oct 24
🔮 Crypto Bitcoin Investing Finance Technology Business
  1. MicroStrategy is changing the way they invest by using Bitcoin. This shows a shift from traditional investing to a more crypto-focused strategy.
  2. The company is seeing success by integrating Bitcoin into their business model. This approach may inspire other companies to consider similar moves.
  3. The concept of turning index investing into Bitcoin bids highlights a trend in finance. It’s a sign that people are exploring innovative ways to invest.

Crypto learnings 2023

598 implied HN points • 05 Jan 24
  1. Journal and track your trades to improve your intuition and profitability.
  2. Have a clear process for entering trades, including defining stop loss and exit plans.
  3. Trading involves trade-offs, so adjust your strategy to be consistently profitable and adaptable.

Yellen or talkin -- Arthur Hayes

299 implied HN points • 24 Jan 24
  1. The Federal Reserve's recent policy shifts are influencing market trends
  2. Concerns about inflation resurgence are being impacted by external factors
  3. BTC price movements may indicate anticipation of changes in dollar liquidity

Modular blockchains and SaaS companies

259 implied HN points • 03 Feb 24
  1. Monolithic blockchains group all functions together, but modular blockchains separate functions, which aids in scaling.
  2. SaaS companies like Stripe emerged from the modular approach, providing scalable tools for startups.
  3. The SaaS business model involves investing in startups, intertwining them, boosting metrics, and seeking profitable exits.

Signposts -- Arthur Hayes

259 implied HN points • 05 Jan 24
  1. Arthur Hayes is preparing for a potential bear market in cryptocurrencies in March 2024.
  2. Three main factors to watch are RRP balance, BTFP renewal, and rate cut predictions.
  3. Arthur's portfolio strategy involves BTC and ETH, hedging with BTC options for defined risk and liquidity.
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Ethereum and the innovator's dillema

279 implied HN points • 03 Dec 23
  1. Successful companies often fail to adapt to technological innovations due to overallocation to familiar aspects.
  2. Ethereum has peaked in terms of valuation relative to other crypto assets and adoption.
  3. The future of Ethereum faces challenges with scalability, user costs, and competition from emerging smart contract platforms.

Arthur Hayes Summary Archive

219 implied HN points • 09 Jan 24
  1. Summaries of Arthur Hayes' articles from March 2023 to September 2023 are available on Jay's page.
  2. Themes covered in the summaries include US banking collapse, staked ETH withdrawals, de-dollarization, AI and crypto, and more.
  3. Jay's Substack is a good resource for detailed summaries and insights on Arthur Hayes' articles.

Spot BTC ETF and Visa Transaction Fees

179 implied HN points • 09 Jan 24
  1. Visa and Mastercard dominate electronic payment processing, earning high margins
  2. Coinbase, similar to Visa's journey, aims to be a key player in the crypto industry
  3. Coinbase's role in BTC ETF signifies a potential centralization of crypto activity around their platform

Panda Power -- Arthur Hayes

219 implied HN points • 28 Nov 23
  1. China and America's relationship affects the cryptocurrency market
  2. China's economy may see growth with foreign capital returning
  3. A weakening dollar can impact China's economy and influence decisions like investing in cryptocurrencies

Be Aware -- Bob Loukas

219 implied HN points • 21 Nov 23
  1. Bob Loukas discusses the Bitcoin 4-year cycle and recent market events
  2. Potential outcomes of ETF approval or denial on Bitcoin's price
  3. Predictions on Bitcoin's price movement and new ATH timing

Arthur Hayes -- Bad Gurl

219 implied HN points • 10 Nov 23
  1. Biden aims to keep US equity markets up and mitigate losses on US bank balance sheets
  2. Yellen plans to inject liquidity into the global financial system through short term treasuries and profit in various ways
  3. Hayes suggests profitable strategies include long crypto, big tech, and monitoring liquidity balances

Bitcoin Miners Thesis

199 implied HN points • 20 Nov 23
  1. Bitcoin miners solve cryptographic problems to earn rewards
  2. Invest in miners when BTC price is up for better returns
  3. Consider factors like halvening and revenue growth when investing in miners

Jito airdrop recap

179 implied HN points • 08 Dec 23
  1. Jito airdrop had significant growth, with a large number of tokens distributed and traded at high prices.
  2. Solana ecosystem is gaining attention and activity, with inflows from Ethereum and potential for future airdrops.
  3. Opportunities for airdrops like Jito on Solana may become limited, so consider buying and staking SOL or using Solana organically to qualify.

Bitcoin Synergy

199 implied HN points • 24 Oct 23
  1. Bitcoin supply will decrease with the halvening
  2. Significant buying pressure from Saylor and Tether
  3. BTC miners and nation states are holding onto BTC

Solana Thesis

199 implied HN points • 19 Oct 23
  1. Solana in '23 has similarities to Facebook in '11: potential upside from negative sentiment and indifference.
  2. Speed of iteration in Solana is impressive - rapid iteration cycle with high quality despite market negativity.
  3. Solana's unique approach to scaling and dedicated community set it apart, but competition from EVM-based solutions and regulatory challenges are key risks.

Thoughts on the Cleanspark Q4 '23 Earnings

159 implied HN points • 01 Dec 23
  1. Controversy around CleanSpark diluting shares
  2. CleanSpark is leading the industry with their operational abilities
  3. CleanSpark's strategy to mine Bitcoin and hold the rest is a good move

Analyzing the Base <> Optimism deal

199 implied HN points • 10 Oct 23
  1. Base struck a deal with Optimism for revenue share and tokens
  2. Coinbase's deal with Optimism is a proxy for tokenizing Base
  3. Optimism aims to increase liquidity by selling OP tokens through the deal with Base