The hottest Investing Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways

Giving Up on the ‘Giving Pledge’

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 194 implied HN points • 23 Mar 26

💼 Business Investing

Many billionaires are backing away from the Giving Pledge, and new sign-ups have slowed dramatically.
People point to several causes: a shift toward political donations, reinvesting wealth in businesses, and growing criticism that the pledge was performative or associated with problematic figures.
Abandoning the pledge can be seen as positive because it often prioritized image and affectation over substantive, accountable charitable impact.

Andrew Ross Sorkin on the Risk if AI Succeeds, Private Credit, Prediction Markets, and the SpaceX IPO

Big Technology • 6004 implied HN points • 13 Mar 26

💼 Business Investing

If AI succeeds it could massively boost productivity while displacing many jobs, creating a painful transition and concentrating wealth among model makers and big incumbents. The real question isn’t whether new tasks exist but who will have the money to buy them.
Much of the AI infrastructure buildout is financed through private credit and opaque private valuations, so hidden leverage could reprice and cascade through private equity and the broader economy. That creates a systemic risk that’s harder to see than public-market debt.
AI is likely to consolidate into a single personal interface that hands tasks to specialized bots, and compute could shift to the edge, reshaping which tech companies win and how software businesses operate. Some roles will be automated, but firms with data, installed bases, or higher-order services can still succeed.

Can Your Pension or Retirement Money Get Lost in the Bermuda Triangle?

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 1620 implied HN points • 20 Mar 26

💰 Finance Investing

A lot of ordinary people’s pension and retirement money has been funneled into private credit funds and insurance vehicles, not just Wall Street elites.
A sudden AI-driven selloff in software stocks — after new language models showed software engineering can be automated — slammed software valuations and spread stress through the private credit market.
Because these funds are opaque and marketed as safe, everyday savers may not realize their long-term security is exposed to a hidden, potentially huge blowup.

Venture Capital Doesn't Exist

Investing 101 • 92 implied HN points • 14 Mar 26

💼 Business Investing

'Venture capital' is a misleading catch-all — it really splits into seed investing, classic early-stage venture, supercharged growth rounds, and private small-cap tech stocks.
Each category needs a different approach and carries different risks: seed is a people game, classic venture backs risky experiments, supercharged growth buys momentum and access, and private small-cap deals are mainly a game of capital.
Founders and investors should explicitly pick which game they're playing and align their partners, capital strategy, and expectations to that specific category.

Portfolio Review - October 2024

The Wolf of Harcourt Street • 339 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24

💰 Finance Investing

The portfolio reached a new all-time high in value, showing strong overall performance this month. This indicates good investment decisions in the recent past.
Several key companies, like Visa and Meta, reported better-than-expected earnings, reinforcing their growth potential. These results contributed positively to the portfolio's success.
InPost and Nubank remain as targets for investment, reflecting strategies to capitalize on their future performance. Keeping an eye on their stock movements can lead to profitable opportunities.

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The Smarter Way To Bet On Anthropic And OpenAI

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 15 implied HN points • 25 Mar 26

💰 Finance Investing

Paying 15× NAV for VCX just to get Anthropic exposure is an insanely rich valuation.
There are multiple far better options to gain exposure to Anthropic and OpenAI than overpaying for VCX.
If you insist on paying extreme multiples, at least structure the deal so you also get a well-known legacy business alongside the AI bet.

The Citrini post is just a scary bedtime story

Noahpinion • 25471 implied HN points • 24 Feb 26

💰 Finance Investing

AI could upend many white-collar and service jobs and business models, but how far that disruption goes is uncertain and hotly debated.
Scary AI scenarios can quickly spook investors and move stock prices, often driven more by sentiment than by new hard evidence about company risks.
A large-scale economic crash from AI-driven disruption is theoretically possible—for example if many firms fail and trigger a financial crisis—but that outcome seems unlikely and the exact mechanism is unclear, and there are tools to respond if it happens.

The Bear Cave #316

The Bear Cave • 1679 implied HN points • 08 Mar 26

💰 Finance Investing

An activist report claims Ethereum’s recent Fusaka upgrade damaged ETH tokenomics and enabled wallet "poisoning" scams, raising questions about on-chain activity and firms holding large ETH treasuries.
Multiple high-profile resignations and board departures were announced across several companies, pointing to governance and leadership instability that could unsettle strategy and investor confidence.
Media and market checks are ramping up: investigations highlight risky marketing targeting retail investors, local newsrooms are adopting AI to cut costs and expand coverage, and M&A activity continues with deals like the sale of Care.com.

Everyone's Talking About Lululemon ($LULU) Earnings. Nobody's Looking at This. | PULSE Framework

Behavioral Value Investor • 81 implied HN points • 24 Mar 26

💰 Finance Investing

Lululemon has consistently positive and rising economic profits and free cash flows, which points to a high-return, growing business.
The company carries almost no net debt so financial leverage is low, though retail lease obligations should be reviewed as a form of off‑balance debt.
Valuation appears attractive with a smoothed free cash flow yield near 7% and an EV cap rate around 10%, so the stock merits further research.

Breaking: OpenAI is probably toast

Marcus on AI • 11777 implied HN points • 13 Feb 26

💼 Business Investing

OpenAI's technical lead is slipping as Google, Anthropic, and several Chinese firms largely catch up, eroding its competitive edge.
Major backers are pulling back or signaling uncertainty — Nvidia scaled back a big pledge and SoftBank's top investor is wavering — which raises serious questions about future funding.
OpenAI is burning cash and may have limited runway, so if venture funding dries up it could need a bailout and would likely lose talent to competitors.

The Bear Cave #315

The Bear Cave • 1492 implied HN points • 01 Mar 26

💰 Finance Investing

Multiple activist and short-seller reports this week accuse several companies of overvaluation, accounting tricks, regulatory or safety issues, and overstated asset quality.
A string of high-profile departures — especially CFOs — at smaller public companies suggests notable leadership turnover and potential instability in those businesses.
The newsletter highlights a flurry of social media posts and screenshots, showing that tweets and public reports are driving market narratives and investor attention.

Did I Call the Bubble Top?

The Honest Broker • 11835 implied HN points • 03 Feb 26

🕹 Technology Investing

Major AI-related tech stocks reached all-time highs and have fallen sharply since, signaling a possible bubble top.
Companies are still pouring enormous sums into AI—hundreds of billions and potentially trillions—but this cash flow hasn’t restored investor confidence or lifted share prices.
The near-term outlook is uncertain: big investments could sustain growth, yet changed market sentiment means good news may no longer send prices higher.

Persistent Weak Layer

Crypto Trader Digest • 2023 implied HN points • 15 Oct 24

🔮 Crypto Investing

A Persistent Weak Layer (PWL) in avalanche science is a weak layer of snow that can lead to dangerous avalanches. Understanding these layers is important for safety in avalanche-prone areas.
Geopolitical conflicts, especially in the Middle East, can create financial market risks. Issues like energy price spikes and military actions can substantially impact investments, particularly in crypto markets.
Bitcoin could potentially rise in value if energy prices go up due to geopolitical conflicts. It is seen as a store of value, especially during times of inflation or war, making careful management of investment positions crucial.

Infinite Games

The Generalist • 3342 implied HN points • 26 Feb 26

💼 Business Investing

Joining Hummingbird as a partner while keeping The Generalist fully owned and continuing to publish, with the partnership expected to sharpen the investing craft.
Hummingbird’s contrarian, founder-focused approach — driven by deep curiosity and attention to founder psychology — helps surface subtler, more interesting questions about startups.
The Generalist will publish less often but focus on fewer, long-form, deeply researched pieces about the most consequential organizations, trading frequency for greater depth and quality.

The AI Super Brawl, NVIDIA’s OpenAI Gut Check, The World Eats Software

Big Technology • 4003 implied HN points • 09 Feb 26

🕹 Technology Investing

The Super Bowl ad fight between major AI companies highlighted their rivalry but mostly spoke to people already inside the AI world rather than convincing everyday users to adopt chatbots.
Nvidia is considering a roughly $20 billion investment in OpenAI, a single decision that could reshape funding, control, and competitive dynamics across the AI industry.
There’s massive spending and hype around AI, yet real user adoption and software-market outcomes remain uneven, fueling concerns about AI-washing, an AI bubble, and the long-term payoff for software investments.

Networked Conviction 005

Investing 101 • 55 implied HN points • 11 Mar 26

💼 Business Investing

Multidisciplinary skunkworks like Imagineering bring artists, engineers, storytellers, and others together to turn creative uncertainty into tangible products. They act as permanent studios that translate ideas into real experiences.
Flagship Pioneering is a repeatable biotech incubator model that has spawned huge winners like Moderna and demonstrates how a discovery mechanism can generate major portfolio value. It shows the power of intentionally building companies from uncertainty.
With AI creating exponentially more uncertainty, there’s a clear opportunity to adapt the Flagship model to systematically find and build AI deployment businesses. Replicating that incubator approach could turn AI-driven uncertainty into productive, investable companies.

Eventually, Reality

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 27 implied HN points • 22 Mar 26

💰 Finance Investing

Tesla has repeatedly defied conventional valuation rules, behaving more like a high‑growth tech platform than a cyclical automaker, and investors who bet against it have often been wrong.
Its valuation is extremely high compared with fundamentals, with much of the bull case resting on future bets like robotaxis and humanoid robots while the core car business shows signs of slowing.
The gap between narrative and reality is closing, and Tesla may not be able to rely on storytelling alone to justify its lofty price going forward.

You Pick the Stock. I'll Run the Vitals.

Behavioral Value Investor • 104 implied HN points • 20 Mar 26

💰 Finance Investing

A new weekly video called Subscriber PULSE Check will screen three or four subscriber-submitted tickers each Friday, with the host opening the PULSE template on camera and walking through the analysis.
PULSE is a quick triage tool that anchors on hard historical financials—like economic profits, underlying free cash flow, leverage, smoothed FCF yield, and EV cap rates—to decide if a stock deserves deeper research.
Everyone can watch the episodes for free, but only paid subscribers can submit tickers (submissions stay in a queue if not picked), and the regular free Tuesday PULSE articles will continue.

Heed The Warning

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 48 implied HN points • 21 Mar 26

💰 Finance Investing

Short-seller reports often uncover real governance, accounting, or export-control problems and should be read carefully because they can presage legal or financial trouble.
Markets can ignore detailed warnings for a long time, but risks can suddenly materialize and cause violent repricing, as seen in past cases.
Treat evidence-based short research as basic risk management — don’t blindly follow it, but don’t dismiss it either; engage with the facts and ask tough questions.

Shocking Stats About Your Purchasing Power And The US Dollar

The Pomp Letter • 559 implied HN points • 17 Oct 24

💰 Finance Investing

The US dollar's purchasing power has decreased by 50% over the last 30 years due to inflation. This means you can buy much less with a dollar today compared to what you could in the past.
Despite wage increases, the average worker is effectively earning less after adjusting for inflation. This creates a situation where even though you might see more money in your paycheck, it doesn't go as far as it used to.
Many people are looking for alternative ways to store value, like Bitcoin, as traditional currencies lose purchasing power and some goods continue to rise in price.

2026 Feels Like 2022. One Big Difference.

Spilled Coffee • 24 implied HN points • 25 Mar 26

💰 Finance Investing

2026 feels a lot like 2022, with the market peaking early and then grinding lower as rallies get sold and bad news moves stocks more than good news.
The biggest tech names are leading the decline, with large drawdowns already visible (for example, Microsoft ~31% down, Meta ~24% down, Tesla ~24% down), so this is more than a small pullback.
The macro backdrop — a midterm election year plus an energy shock — is adding to uncertainty and creating a similar wall of worry to what was seen in 2022.

Your Invited To Our Crypto Event This Week

The Pomp Letter • 339 implied HN points • 20 Oct 24

🔮 Crypto Investing

There's a big crypto event happening called Crypto Investor Day 2024. It will have many important people in the crypto space sharing their insights.
You can expect discussions on cool topics like the future of bitcoin, stablecoins, and crypto regulations. It’s all about getting valuable information without any fluff.
If you want to attend, make sure to sign up soon because spots are limited. It's a great chance to learn from top leaders in the industry.

Stablecoins Are Eating The World

The Pomp Letter • 539 implied HN points • 16 Oct 24

🔮 Crypto Investing

Stablecoins are becoming popular worldwide, in both rich and poor countries. They're helping a lot of people with their money transactions.
Many users want to hold stablecoins and use them for payments. This shows there's a real need for these types of digital currencies.
The growth of stablecoins is happening quickly, especially on faster blockchain platforms. This trend suggests that stablecoins could take a big share of how we use dollars in the future.

five links for March 2026

Five Links (and three graphs) by Auren Hoffman • 689 implied HN points • 26 Feb 26

💼 Business Investing

People who take control and pursue unconventional, persistent approaches can dramatically change outcomes. Examples include self-directed medical choices, career comebacks, and relentless competitive training.
Deep strategic thinking and a focus on endgames create an edge across fields like investing, chess, war, and technology. When openings and middles get standardized, late-stage planning and execution decide winners.
Practical resources and vigilance matter: curated readings and conversations broaden perspective, while founders must watch for hidden term-sheet clauses that can strip control. Staying informed helps avoid traps and leverage new ideas.

OpenAI’s “Code Red”

Marcus on AI • 12726 implied HN points • 03 Dec 25

💼 Business Investing

OpenAI is under urgent competitive pressure as rival models have closed the gap, prompting emergency efforts and noticeable user departures.
The company has overextended financially, burning huge sums with modest revenue and likely only a limited runway, which makes future fundraising riskier.
If OpenAI stumbles, the fallout could ripple through investors, chip suppliers, partners, and pension funds, and could even prompt talk of government intervention.

The Bear Cave #313

The Bear Cave • 933 implied HN points • 15 Feb 26

💰 Finance Investing

Activist and short-seller reports accuse companies such as Super Group, BigBear AI, Archer Aviation, and Syntec Optics of accounting problems, misleading disclosures, or governance failures, and claim these issues could materially overstate profitability or render companies uninvestable.
A spate of sudden C‑suite and senior departures — including at GEO Group, Ecarx, Radian, Kyndryl, and Goldman Sachs — points to turnover and potential governance or operational stress, with some departures coinciding with filing delays and other red flags.
Market chatter and data show new structural threats: prediction markets are pressuring incumbent sportsbooks like DraftKings, AI product moves and acquisitions invite skepticism about execution, and shifts like GLP‑1 weight‑loss drugs are changing consumer demand while SEC FOIA logs hint at possible regulatory scrutiny.

Stocks Have Done Something Crazy Every 20 Year Period...

The Pomp Letter • 439 implied HN points • 14 Oct 24

💰 Finance Investing

Investing in stocks is usually better over the long term. If you hold onto your stocks for 20 years, you have never lost money.
While some people trade stocks for quick gains, sticking to long-term strategies is often smarter and more rewarding.
Global trends like rising liquidity might help both stocks and assets like bitcoin succeed in the future.

Copper: Imminent Supercycle or Mostly Hype?

Doomberg • 516 implied HN points • 20 Feb 26

💰 Finance Investing

Copper was fairly inactive for about a decade, but interest and market attention have suddenly spiked.
There’s growing hype that future supply will fall far short of demand, which supporters say could trigger a copper 'supercycle'.
The full, in-depth analysis is behind a paid subscription, so accessing the complete argument requires upgrading.

Inside TKO: How Ari Emanuel Built The World's Most Valuable Sports And Entertainment Property

Huddle Up • 188 implied HN points • 09 Mar 26

💼 Business Investing

TKO stitched together the biggest live-sports and entertainment portfolio by merging UFC and WWE and buying IMG, On Location, and PBR, giving it massive scale with 500+ events and a reach of about 1 billion households.
The company delivered a financial turnaround in 2025 — roughly $4.7B revenue, $1.585B Adjusted EBITDA, positive net income, $1.159B free cash flow, and over $1.3B returned to shareholders — and the stock is up strongly.
Ari Emanuel is betting on live, human-driven experiences as an "anti-AI" moat, leveraging more than $15B in media-rights deals with partners like Paramount, Netflix, and ESPN to push long-term value and a potential $30B+ valuation.

What Happens Next?

The Honest Broker • 10106 implied HN points • 20 Nov 25

💰 Finance Investing

There are growing concerns that a backlash against AI could seriously hurt big tech, with Meta seen as especially vulnerable.
Meta’s stock has plunged roughly $180 per share since early August and the NASDAQ has dropped about 1,400 points in the same period, showing a sharp market pullback.
This sudden decline raises urgent questions about what happens next for investors and the broader market, so close attention and caution are warranted.

How to buy a duplex (or triplex)

Supernuclear • 579 implied HN points • 07 Oct 24

💼 Business Investing

Buying a duplex or triplex can save you money compared to single-family homes. They are typically about 30% cheaper per square foot, making them an affordable option for many.
Duplexes offer a blend of private space and the ability to live close to friends. You can enjoy your own area while still maintaining close connections with others.
There are different ways to buy a duplex, each with its own financial and legal considerations. It's important to explore these options to find what works best for your situation.

10-Minute Investment Autopsy No. 7: Staples

Behavioral Value Investor • 52 implied HN points • 19 Mar 26

💰 Finance Investing

Staples looked like a cheap, dominant player with big scale, strong cash flow and a growing online business, which supported the value thesis.
Between 2012 and 2017 sales fell at a ~6% CAGR, EBIT and EPS declined, and the company was acquired at $10.25 per share, producing roughly a -2% total return.
Major competitive risks—especially Amazon—materialized and eroded the business, showing that low price and market share alone don’t protect against secular threats.

Investing Update: Was That The Market Flush?

Spilled Coffee • 52 implied HN points • 21 Mar 26

💰 Finance Investing

Stocks fell for a fourth straight week, with the S&P 500 down 1.9% and the Nasdaq and Dow about 2.1%, marking the longest losing streak in over a year.
Gold plunged 11.1% this week — its worst weekly drop since 1983 and on pace for its worst month since 2013 — showing that even traditional safe havens can get crushed.
Crypto and commodities diverged: Bitcoin dropped 5.7% on the week and is nearly 20% down year‑to‑date, while oil remains the big winner, up more than 70% YTD.

The Next Phase of Crypto

DeFi Education • 1338 implied HN points • 27 Aug 24

🔮 Crypto Investing

The value in the crypto world is moving from blockchains to applications. People are more likely to use services that are user-friendly and cost-effective, instead of focusing on how the technology behind them works.
As blockspace becomes more available and costs decrease, successful crypto projects will likely be the ones that offer the best applications and services. It's important to focus on investing in these applications rather than just the big blockchains like Bitcoin or Ethereum.
Decentralization is important in crypto, but it's also okay for corporations to build applications as long as they respect the principles of openness and equality. Anyone can learn to create something valuable in crypto, which makes it accessible for everyone.

Market Movers - 5 October 2024

The Wolf of Harcourt Street • 579 implied HN points • 05 Oct 24

💼 Business Investing

InPost launched a rewards program called InCoins, which allows users to earn coins for using their services. This strategy aims to make delivery more fun and encourage more people to use InPost.
Sea Limited opened a new fulfilment center in Brazil to improve logistics for sellers. This move is expected to help local businesses grow and provide faster service to customers.
Airbnb saw a big increase in bookings in Thailand, especially for group travel and long-term stays. This growth is due to better flight options and new visa policies that attract remote workers.

Bitcoin ETF Options Could Send Bitcoin Much Higher

The Pomp Letter • 439 implied HN points • 08 Oct 24

🔮 Crypto Investing

Bitcoin ETF options are expected to attract more investors, which may help stabilize its price and reduce volatility over time.
Unlike traditional assets, Bitcoin tends to become more volatile when its price rises, which encourages more buying during bull markets.
The new ETF options will provide a familiar way for institutional investors to access Bitcoin, potentially leading to a significant increase in prices, similar to past market events like GameStop.

CEO resigns. Stock down. Is Adobe ($ADBE) worth a look? | PULSE Framework

Behavioral Value Investor • 118 implied HN points • 13 Mar 26

💰 Finance Investing

The PULSE framework is a quick triage tool that uses five financial signals to decide if a stock deserves deeper research.
Adobe scores very well on economic profits, underlying free cash flow, and low leverage, while its smoothed FCF yield and EV cap rate (around 7%+) make it interesting despite recent CEO news and AI fears.
This is a historical, high-level screen—not a buy recommendation—so you should do detailed, independent research before considering an investment.

Exposing and Fixing the Media’s Relationship with Shady Finance

The Save Journalism Committee • 309 implied HN points • 01 Mar 26

💰 Finance Investing

Major newsletters accepted paid crowdfunding ads without adequate vetting or clear disclosures, which lent prestige to misleading pitches and left ordinary readers exposed to big financial losses.
Crowdfunded startup markets suffer severe information asymmetry—most deals look like lemons to outside investors—so casual retail buyers are much more likely to lose money than to get rich.
There are clear fixes: require plain‑English, prominent financial disclosures on fundraising pages, add stronger consumer warnings or consent steps, and either tighten or eliminate risky crowdfunding programs while publishers refuse ads they haven’t properly vetted.

Fringe Finance Stocks To Watch

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 3 implied HN points • 23 Mar 26

💰 Finance Investing

Collects proprietary stock ideas and shows the most recent stocks to watch along with past performance for selected picks.
Features a yearly "Stocks I'm Watching" roundup that highlights specific picks and tracks how they performed across each year.
The page is behind a paywall, so you need a paid subscription or to sign in to access the full content.

The Bear Cave #310

The Bear Cave • 1049 implied HN points • 25 Jan 26

💰 Finance Investing

Short-seller and activist reports are piling up, accusing companies of accounting problems, customer disputes, and regulatory compliance risks.
Several high-level executives have recently resigned, suggesting growing management turnover and possible governance or performance issues at those firms.
Regulatory and legal enforcement is active, with SEC and DOJ actions underscoring increased legal risk for public companies.