The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Business Topics

Fear and Consolidation in the Oil Patch

BIG by Matt Stoller • 20856 implied HN points • 14 Feb 24
💼 Business Oil industry Mergers Finance Economy Competition
  1. The oil and gas industry is going through a significant wave of consolidation, with mega-mergers happening between major companies.
  2. The mergers and acquisitions in the industry are driven by challenges in increasing production, high finance strategies, and the desire to showcase access to reserves to investors.
  3. The consolidation will likely lead to squeezed suppliers, reduced innovation, and a shift of industry power from domestic firms to global entities.

Why I Don't Read Reddit

The Honest Broker • 14196 implied HN points • 27 Feb 24
💼 Business Technology Finance Management Companies Economics
  1. Reddit relies heavily on unpaid labor with 60,000 daily active moderators compared to around 2,000 employees.
  2. After 18 years, Reddit still isn't profitable, accumulating a $717 million deficit, but it shows potential for profitability with increasing revenues and reduced losses.
  3. Reddit's CEO earned $193 million last year, prompting questions about excessive compensation, and Reddit is heavily reliant on advertising for revenue, putting it in a risky position concerning Google competition.

Why small developers are getting squeezed out of the housing market

Noahpinion • 11588 implied HN points • 02 Mar 24
💼 Business Real Estate Finance Development Affordable Housing Banking
  1. Traditional banks aren't willing to take on the risks associated with financing small real estate development projects due to the complex and risky nature of construction work.
  2. Small developers struggle to access financing from traditional lenders because they lack the track record and financial resources required to secure loans, creating a barrier to entry in the industry.
  3. Institutionalization of real estate development by large firms can lead to a loss of community identity, charm, and personalized building designs, highlighting the importance of supporting small developers in creating unique and vibrant neighborhoods.

Astera Labs IPO - The Next Connectivity Superhero or Steamrolled By Competition?

SemiAnalysis • 5354 implied HN points • 17 Mar 24
💼 Business Technology Finance Competition Market Analysis Forecasting
  1. Astera Labs is a key player in the AI infrastructure market, supplying connectivity chips to hyperscalers, AI accelerator vendors, and system OEMs.
  2. Connectivity in the datacenter market is highly competitive, but Astera Labs has the opportunity to become a connectivity 'Superhero' by maintaining market share and expanding product lines.
  3. Astera Labs focuses on solving connectivity bottlenecks in high-speed interfaces by offering retimers to improve signal integrity, particularly targeting PCIe 4.0 and 5.0 specs.

Loose Ends

Doomberg • 10309 implied HN points • 28 Feb 24
💼 Business Finance Energy Politics Climate Market Analysis
  1. It's important for analysts to reflect on their past work to improve and learn from mistakes.
  2. Understanding the political landscape is crucial for predicting market trends, especially in energy markets.
  3. The strategy of imposing sanctions against Russia may be ineffective and could have negative consequences on the global financial system.
Get a weekly roundup of the best Substack posts, by hacker news affinity:

The Big Development Project: How much should it cost?

Dev’s Substack • 13 HN points • 25 Apr 24
💼 Business Finance Budgeting Investment Development Analysis
  1. Performing a double worst-case analysis can help determine a reasonable price for a software investment based on the project's business value.
  2. ROI (return on investment) calculation considers total benefits, total costs, and time horizon to assess project profitability.
  3. Setting a target cost for development budget based on the minimum acceptable ROI and apportioning costs between development and operational can guide budget planning.

The bottomless financial insanity of the Rwanda scheme

Striking 13 • 2515 implied HN points • 01 Mar 24
🌍 World Politics Government Finance Policy International relations Economics
  1. The UK's Rwanda scheme is shown to be financially insane, with exorbitant costs and no real impact, according to a recent report.
  2. The Home Office's approach to the scheme is criticized for its irrationality, waste of money, and failure to address the asylum backlog effectively.
  3. Comparison with the costs of a functioning asylum system highlights the extreme financial inefficiency and lack of logic in the Rwanda scheme.

ACX Grants Followup Impact Market

Astral Codex Ten • 1858 implied HN points • 07 Mar 24
💼 Business Grants Investment Charity Philanthropy Finance
  1. ACX Grants involves an impact market where investors crowdfund grant proposals with potential for big profits if successful.
  2. Only 44 out of approximately 140 qualified participants have signed up for the impact market so far, with a different approach allowing non-accredited investors to participate.
  3. Investing in impact certificates through this system has risks like potential project failure, but also benefits such as tax deductibility.

Elon Musk Is Dangerous To Society

Where's Your Ed At • 21068 implied HN points • 13 Sep 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Technology Finance Media Government Corruption
  1. Elon Musk has significant influence due to his wealth and power, and his actions can negatively impact global events.
  2. Musk's decisions, personal beliefs, and interactions with authoritarian regimes raise concerns about his potential misuse of power.
  3. Coverage of Musk should shift to recognize him as a harmful actor who prioritizes his desires over societal well-being.

Is Vivek Ramaswamy A BioTech Ponzi Schemer & Deep State Asset?

2nd Smartest Guy in the World • 4658 implied HN points • 15 Jan 24
💼 Business Biotech Scams Investing Entrepreneurship Finance
  1. Vivek Ramaswamy made millions from biotech companies that failed, leading to accusations of running a Ponzi Scheme.
  2. Ramaswamy has been critiquing corporations engaging in what he calls 'socially conscious investing' as a threat to America's well-being.
  3. Despite accusations and controversies, Ramaswamy's net worth has been estimated to be over $950 million, raising questions about his business practices.

Junk Bond Trader

Where's Your Ed At • 13056 implied HN points • 26 Oct 23
💼 Business Entrepreneurship Finance Marketing Management Investing
  1. Elon Musk is perceived as a modern-day hustler, skilled at manipulating media and markets without creating tangible value.
  2. Musk's success lies in picking companies and products that promise eternal growth, even if the reality doesn't align with the hype.
  3. The acquisitions of SolarCity, Twitter, and the Cybertruck showcase Musk playing outside the odds, relying on emotion, and making risky bets.

What Could Possibly Go Wrong with Sam Altman’s New Ambitions?

Marcus on AI • 2485 implied HN points • 09 Feb 24
🕹 Technology AI Security Finance Ethics Risk
  1. Sam Altman's new ambitions involve projects with significant financial and technological implications, such as automating tasks by taking over user devices and seeking trillions of dollars to reshape the business of chips and AI.
  2. There are concerns about the potential consequences and risks of these ambitious projects, including security vulnerabilities, potential misuse of control over user devices, and the massive financial implications.
  3. The field of AI may not be mature enough to handle the challenges presented by these ambitious projects, and there are doubts about the feasibility, safety, and ethical implications of executing these plans.

Panic Among the Streamers

The Honest Broker • 22673 implied HN points • 28 Jul 23
💼 Business Technology Entertainment Finance Economy Industry
  1. Spotify's CEO sold $100 million in stock amidst the company's increasing losses, causing concern among investors.
  2. Streaming companies like Netflix and Disney are heavily investing in AI technology, potentially replacing human creativity with bots.
  3. Music streaming platforms like Spotify prioritize profit over user experience, creating a bland and generic listening environment.

Cap Table Template

Venture Prose • 159 implied HN points • 07 Apr 24
💼 Business Finance Startup
  1. Be mindful of dilution when piling up post-money SAFE notes as a founder.
  2. Creating a proper cap table can reveal the dilutive impact of different funding rounds and securities.
  3. Use templates to simulate scenarios like adding co-founders, granting stock options, raising multiple rounds, and selling secondaries.

Why newsletter signups should always be your north star

Simon Owens's Media Newsletter • 723 implied HN points • 08 Mar 24
💼 Business Media Entrepreneurship Finance Marketing Content creation
  1. Focus on growing newsletter signups as a key metric for success, as platforms can impact content creators' reach and livelihood unpredictably.
  2. Media entrepreneurs should be cautious of relying solely on tech platforms for distribution, as policies and algorithms can mistakenly impact their work.
  3. Entrepreneurs in media should consider covering niche news sites, video channels, podcasts, newsletters, and affiliate/ecommerce to succeed independently.

❄️💥 Quels risques en 2024 ?

Snowball • 1886 implied HN points • 21 Jan 24
💼 Business Tech Finance Economy Startups Investing
  1. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) is a major tech company that manufactures chips for various devices.
  2. Experts and global leaders predict risks that could cause crises in 2024 like environmental issues and technology advancements.
  3. The internet's evolution to omnipresence due to smartphones raises questions about implications and opportunities.

The Enshittification of Manchester United

Grace on Football • 1159 implied HN points • 06 Feb 24
🎾 Sports Football Finance Management Commercialization Ownership
  1. The Glazers' ownership of Manchester United has led to mismanagement on and off the pitch, creating a downward trajectory for the club.
  2. The concept of 'enshittification' can be seen in how tech platforms first cater to users, then prioritize business customers over users, and eventually focus on extracting maximum value for themselves before declining.
  3. Manchester United's shift towards prioritizing commercial success over sporting success has negatively affected the club's growth and standing, leading to concerns about the future of the team.

The Deposit Myth

Altered States of Monetary Consciousness • 481 implied HN points • 08 Mar 24
💼 Business Banking Economics Finance Education
  1. When it comes to 'bank deposits', the traditional verb-noun pairing can be misleading. The term 'deposit' typically implies something being put in, but with banks, it refers to something issued out by the bank like digital casino chips.
  2. Comparing banks to casinos can help understand the concept better. When you 'deposit' cash in a bank, it becomes their asset, and you receive digital chips as a liability. This is opposite to the usual understanding that a deposit is something put in the bank.
  3. The language around 'bank deposits' can create misunderstandings, especially in economics. An update in how we define and understand 'bank deposits' can help clear up these misconceptions and align with the actual operations involved.

Why The Emphasis On Transgender?

Points And Figures • 719 implied HN points • 22 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Health Politics World Politics Finance News Business
  1. The emphasis on transgender issues has shifted from other social issues due to the potential financial incentives and long-term profit from transgender-related treatments and services.
  2. Businesses analyze customer acquisition costs and cash flows to understand why certain decisions are made regarding transgenderism and abortion, showing that transgender-related treatments offer a more sustainable revenue stream compared to abortion services.
  3. The transgender industry presents a significant financial opportunity, with ongoing cash flows from hormone treatments, surgeries, and other related services, highlighting the motivations behind the push for transgenderism acceptance and coverage by insurance companies.

Chartbook 266 Israel's downgrade

Chartbook • 844 implied HN points • 15 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Israel Finance Budget War
  1. Moody's downgraded Israel's ratings due to ongoing conflict with Hamas, weakening its institutions and fiscal strength - a first in Israeli history.
  2. Despite the financial toll of the war with Gaza, Israel's debt-to-GDP ratio remains stable, thanks to local currency borrowing and market confidence.
  3. The aid promised by the US to Israel amidst the conflict serves more as a political statement than a financial necessity, relieving pressure on Israel's domestic priorities.

The Founders’ Guide to Leveraging AI

The Generalist • 480 implied HN points • 05 Mar 24
🕹 Technology AI Startups Finance Entrepreneurship Innovation
  1. Startup founders are navigating the Age of GPTs with new opportunities and risks due to advancements in AI.
  2. AI not only streamlines processes but also enhances human connection, especially in areas like HR.
  3. Industries should leverage AI for efficiencies, and companies need to be cautious not to blindly adopt AI trends without valid reasons.

News of the Week (February 5 - 9)

Stock Market Nerd • 825 implied HN points • 10 Feb 24
💼 Business Tech Finance Earnings Macro Portfolio
  1. Cloudflare provides web optimization and security, showing strong revenue growth and expanding services beyond traditional security tools like network firewalls
  2. Spotify had a mixed quarter, with growth seen in 2023 but missed revenue estimates for Q4, leading to a focus on evolving its operations
  3. Amazon plans cost cuts in its healthcare unit, while Duolingo faces the risk of potential disruption by emerging GenAI language translation technologies

♾ Meta: The Zuck 'Playbook'

How They Make Money • 727 implied HN points • 09 Feb 24
💼 Business Technology Finance Market Analysis Earnings Report Investment
  1. Meta (META) reported strong Q4 FY23 performance with a 5X return from November 2022 lows, focusing on Metaverse investments and cash returns to shareholders.
  2. Key points from Meta's 'Playbook' include massive compute investment, open-source strategy, future-focused research on AI, data utilization, and an experimentation culture.
  3. In Q4 FY23, Meta saw growth in user metrics and revenue, with an increase in average revenue per user, surpassing competitors like Snap and Pinterest in ARPU.

There's a whole lot of ugly out there when it comes to growth teams.

Elena's Growth Scoop • 904 implied HN points • 29 Jan 24
💼 Business Marketing Management Growth Finance Leadership
  1. The growth teams face systematic failures in the industry due to various issues like unclear growth fundamentals and bad strategic decisions from executives.
  2. Symptoms of a bad growth team include not focusing on monetization, neglecting retention, and obsessing over 'hacks' instead of building sustainable growth engines.
  3. To build a successful growth team, companies need to prioritize monetization, retention, and data-driven decision-making, and ensure alignment between departments for optimal results.

THE SHOW NOTES: Ignoring Iran, UN Workers Helped Hamas, & On This Day in 2019...

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 786 implied HN points • 29 Jan 24
🌍 World Politics Iran UN Finance Terrorism International relations
  1. Iranian proxy militias launched a drone strike against a US outpost in Jordan, resulting in casualties.
  2. Israeli government confirms that UN workers helped Hamas invade Israel in October 7th attack.
  3. Remote workers faced higher layoff rates in 2023 compared to office workers.