Comment is Freed

Comment is Freed, by Sam and Lawrence Freedman, focuses on providing in-depth analysis and commentary on global political events, policy analysis, and state affairs, with a significant focus on conflicts like the Russo-Ukraine War, tensions between Israel and Gaza, and Russian internal dynamics. It also explores election politics, strategies in conflicts, and broader geopolitical strategies.

Global Politics Policy Analysis Foreign Affairs Military Strategies Geopolitical Conflicts Election Politics Strategy and Tactics Government and Governance

The hottest Substack posts of Comment is Freed

And their main takeaways

The Top Ten Books on British Politics

82 implied HN points • 09 Dec 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Biographies Policy Communications Political Humor
  1. The list provides a variety of book recommendations on British politics, including biographies, histories, and memoirs.
  2. The books cover a wide range of topics from British political figures to the impact of policies on the welfare state.
  3. The post also highlights the importance of personal reflections and honesty in political diaries and memoirs to gain insights into politicians and civil servants.

What do Conservative voters really think about immigration?

54 implied HN points • 28 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Immigration Public Opinion AI Research
  1. Concern about immigration among Conservative voters has fluctuated over the years, showing a recent increase largely attributed to attention from right-wing politicians and media.
  2. Labour voters are more likely to be directly affected by immigration due to demographics, contrary to expectations. This dynamic impacts how policymakers should approach the issue.
  3. Misunderstanding public opinion on immigration could lead to harmful policy decisions. Better insight is crucial to avoid unnecessary or damaging stances.

Stalemate, Zugzwang and a long Middle Game

103 implied HN points • 19 Sep 23
🌍 World Politics War Ukraine Russia Chess Metaphors
  1. Stalemate can highlight the need for diplomatic resolutions in war situations.
  2. The term 'stalemate' in chess refers to a specific situation where one player cannot make any legal moves, unique to the game.
  3. The concept of 'Zugzwang' in chess signifies being compelled to make a move that leads to a worse position, showcasing strategic vulnerability.

There are always choices

82 implied HN points • 19 Nov 23
💾 History Historians Decision-making Leaders Historical Analysis
  1. History is shaped by the choices individuals make, especially during times of crisis
  2. While big impersonal forces like demography and geography matter, individuals in positions of power play a significant role in making crucial decisions
  3. It is important to understand the constraints and possibilities before individuals when analyzing historical events

Record Breakers

56 implied HN points • 16 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Conservatives
  1. The recent by-elections have shown significant swings from Conservatives to Labour, with record-breaking numbers indicating a tough time for the Conservatives.
  2. The rise of the Reform party is impacting the Conservatives, pulling away voters who are dissatisfied with the government but hesitant to support traditional mainstream parties.
  3. Green Party votes are proving to be more resilient and less susceptible to being squeezed by other center-left parties, potentially affecting Labour in the long run.
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The Rise of Reform

56 implied HN points • 14 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Conservatives Labour Political Impact
  1. Labour's lead over the Conservatives has remained steady at 20 points, with both parties experiencing a slight decrease in support.
  2. The Reform party has experienced a rise in popularity, moving from an average of 6% to 10%, posing a potential challenge to the Conservatives.
  3. The upcoming by-election in Wellingborough may provide insight into the Reform party's impact on politics and its potential growth in the future.

The Election No One Wants to Talk About

74 implied HN points • 03 Dec 23
  1. Theresa May's unexpected election outcome in 2017 taught the importance of being cautious with polling data.
  2. The UK MRP model was accurate in predicting the election results at a constituency level.
  3. Lessons from the 2017 election, such as the impact of campaigns, were ignored and led to strategic mistakes in subsequent elections.

The Disconnect

100 implied HN points • 10 Aug 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Justice System Crime Trends Prison System Public Services
  1. Different narratives about crime can both be true and indicate complex issues in the criminal justice system.
  2. The increase in average prison sentence length contributes to prison overcrowding despite fewer people being charged with crimes.
  3. Austerity measures have disproportionately affected vulnerable services, creating a ripple effect of challenges across public services.

The Death of Captain Waskow

118 implied HN points • 11 Jun 23
💾 History War World War II Journalism Military
  1. Captain Waskow was deeply respected by his soldiers, as seen in their reactions to his death
  2. Ernie Pyle's war reporting focused on humanizing ordinary soldiers and their experiences
  3. Infantry soldiers play a crucial and challenging role in wars, facing death and being vital for combat operations

The Choice

88 implied HN points • 09 Sep 23
🌍 World Politics Government Healthcare Infrastructure Economy
  1. The government will need to spend over 45% of national income on public services, benefits, and debt repayments by the mid-2040s.
  2. There are limited options for the next government as previous strategies to avoid high costs are no longer viable.
  3. Despite potential economic growth, tough decisions and budget constraints lie ahead for the government.

Fairy Tales

64 implied HN points • 25 Nov 23
  1. The Autumn Statement had implausible spending cuts and relied on illusions of growth.
  2. The relationship between OBR, Treasury, and political parties is tense due to hidden disagreements in financial details.
  3. Labour's options in government are impacted by the decisions made in the Autumn Statement.

Election Round-Up: January

48 implied HN points • 25 Jan 24
  1. The YouGov MRP showed a Labour majority of 120, waking up Tory MPs and media to the scale of their challenges.
  2. MRPs like YouGov's use complex methods, taking large samples, breaking them down by demographics to make predictions but exact methodology is not fully transparent.
  3. There can be significant differences in predictions between MRPs from different pollsters due to methodology variations like handling undecided voters and accounting for tactical voting.

The Narrow Path

67 implied HN points • 01 Nov 23
  1. Government spending reviews involve setting total spending and negotiating department budgets.
  2. Ministers and departments often battle behind the scenes to secure funding for their priorities.
  3. Labor party faces challenges in managing post-election spending review due to economic conditions.

Terrorism as Strategy

56 implied HN points • 13 Dec 23
  1. The term 'terrorist' can be subjective, leading to debates and challenges in labeling groups like Hamas.
  2. Understanding the motivations behind terrorist acts is crucial to address root causes and consider negotiation processes.
  3. Using the 'terrorist' label as a blanket term without understanding specific groups and their political agendas can lead to misconceptions and inappropriate denouncements.

The Global South, BRICS, and the G20

82 implied HN points • 13 Aug 23
🌍 World Politics Global South BRICS Russia
  1. The 'Global South' is not a homogenous group and has its distinct dynamics and interests.
  2. BRICS countries like Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa share economic significance and political viewpoints, such as advocating for multipolarity and de-dollarisation.
  3. Diplomatic peace initiatives by countries like Brazil, African nations, Saudi Arabia, and others demonstrate a shifting international landscape in response to the Russo-Ukraine War.

Wipeout

90 implied HN points • 12 Jul 23
🌍 World Politics Political Analysis Campaign strategies
  1. Polls show Labour and Conservatives have had stable numbers, but shifts in momentum affect perceptions.
  2. Rishi Sunak's lack of progress against pledges and rising interest rates have impacted the public perception of the Conservative party.
  3. There is a possibility of a Tory wipeout, despite historical trends suggesting political fortunes tend to improve from midterm to elections.

Reflections on Kissinger's death and a visit to Vietnam

52 implied HN points • 06 Dec 23
  1. Henry Kissinger had a long and influential career in international diplomacy.
  2. Kissinger's legacy is debated due to his diplomatic achievements and controversial actions.
  3. Kissinger was known for his geopolitical theories and bureaucratic mastery.

Populism vs Reality

74 implied HN points • 26 Aug 23
  1. The Conservatives are deeply split between radical right and centre-right factions.
  2. Political parties in Europe face divisions into radical right and centre-right groups.
  3. Populist leaders may have different actions in government than their promised radical approaches.

The Pivot

69 implied HN points • 16 Sep 23
  1. Labour may pivot to a more radical agenda post-election
  2. The political dynamics would shift if Labour wins the election
  3. Labour could face challenges in implementing their ambitious plans

Misuse of Power

106 implied HN points • 22 Apr 23
🌍 World Politics Bullying Public Opinion
  1. Dominic Raab's resignation may not be significant due to the limited role of Deputy Prime Ministers in the British system.
  2. Raab's behavior and reputation revealed more about the culture of Westminster than his actual actions.
  3. The public's perception of politicians is generally low, making scandals like Raab's unlikely to drastically change voting preferences.

What Works vs What Wins

73 implied HN points • 19 Aug 23
  1. Centrism as a political label can be vague and encompass a wide range of beliefs and individuals.
  2. Defining 'the centre' politically is challenging due to varying interpretations based on factors like ideology and policies.
  3. Examining New Labour's centrism helps highlight the successes, failures, and ongoing implications for leaders like Keir Starmer.

Oppenheimer: The Bomb, Morality and Strategy

75 implied HN points • 05 Aug 23
  1. Robert Oppenheimer discussed the potential destructive power between two Great Powers.
  2. Historical accuracy in movies, like Oppenheimer, can be appreciated by those familiar with the subject.
  3. Acknowledging errors and omissions can enhance the overall understanding of historical events.

How not to use polling

77 implied HN points • 26 Jul 23
  1. Interpreting single-issue polls can be misleading.
  2. Polling questions can be complex and easily influenced by wording.
  3. Following issue polling blindly may not reflect true public sentiment.

Changing the Narrative: Disinformation campaigns and Social Media

60 implied HN points • 01 Oct 23
  1. Disinformation campaigns on social media can influence public perception, but their impact may be limited and dependent on existing beliefs.
  2. Efforts to use social media to change established views in areas of public concern are rarely straightforward, and awareness of risks is important in mitigating their effects.
  3. The digital information environment is complex and can be confusing, with challenges such as conspiracy theories and fake news, but also brings benefits for news, entertainment, and social connections.

Breaking Point

72 implied HN points • 02 Aug 23
  1. The UK election seems predictable but the economy's uncertainty is a game changer.
  2. No one is addressing the long-term challenges in the country before the election.
  3. Post-election, there could be significant changes and internal party tensions for the Tories and Labour.

The Storm Before the Calm

107 implied HN points • 09 Feb 23
  1. The Russo-Ukraine War is entering a critical phase with both sides preparing for offensives, showcasing different military strategies.
  2. Ukraine is being supported by Western countries with advanced equipment for future offensives, but time is needed for the equipment to arrive and be integrated.
  3. Russia is escalating its military efforts, facing economic challenges and potential troop morale issues, as it aims to achieve territorial objectives in Ukraine.

Escaping North Korea

34 implied HN points • 28 Jan 24
  1. The documentary 'Beyond Utopia' follows people trying to escape from North Korea with intense footage of their conditions.
  2. The film features Pastor Seungeun Kim and two attempted defections, showing both happy and sad outcomes.
  3. The filmmakers initially planned to focus on Hyeonseo Lee but changed the narrative to include the Roh family's dangerous journey.

The Rules of the Game

50 implied HN points • 22 Oct 23
  1. The Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) plays a crucial role in determining if the government is meeting fiscal rules.
  2. The forecasts from the OBR impact the decisions that the government can make regarding policies and public services.
  3. Independent forecasts provided by the OBR hold significant weight in demonstrating fiscal responsibility to the media.

Where does all the money come from?

53 implied HN points • 05 Oct 23
  1. Taxes have been increasing due to sluggish economic growth and higher costs of state programs.
  2. Borrowing money during COVID-19 has led to increased debt interest payments, requiring more taxation.
  3. Future governments may need to raise more revenue to support spending within fiscal rules.

Sergei Karaganov Tries to Find a Way to Win Russia’s War

51 implied HN points • 11 Oct 23
  1. Sergei Karaganov is a Russian political scientist and influential figure in the Russian Federation.
  2. He is known for his involvement in advising Boris Yeltsin and Vladimir Putin.
  3. Karaganov's writings often reflect core themes of Putin's foreign policy and address the challenges of ending Russia's war.

China and Russia: The Weight of History

63 implied HN points • 23 Jul 23
  1. The Sino-Russian relationship has a complex history that may not be well understood by many policymakers.
  2. There was tension between Moscow and Beijing during the Cold War, but Nixon's diplomacy with China changed the dynamics of international relations.
  3. The US shift to recognizing Beijing over Taipei as the legitimate Chinese government has had lasting effects on Sino-US relations.