Comment is Freed

Comment is Freed, by Sam and Lawrence Freedman, focuses on providing in-depth analysis and commentary on global political events, policy analysis, and state affairs, with a significant focus on conflicts like the Russo-Ukraine War, tensions between Israel and Gaza, and Russian internal dynamics. It also explores election politics, strategies in conflicts, and broader geopolitical strategies.

Global Politics Policy Analysis Foreign Affairs Military Strategies Geopolitical Conflicts Election Politics Strategy and Tactics Government and Governance

The hottest Substack posts of Comment is Freed

And their main takeaways

What I got wrong about tuition fees

66 implied HN points • 01 Jul 23
  1. Rethinking views on tuition fees is important as unexpected consequences can arise over time.
  2. Changes in repayment systems can threaten funding for universities and have broader economic impacts.
  3. Reforms in tuition fees can trigger a shift in university culture and introduce fierce competition among institutions.

Local Elections 2023: The Preview

78 implied HN points • 29 Apr 23
  1. Local elections in England are important as they impact local services and provide insight into the national political landscape.
  2. The upcoming local elections will be the first time all voters need to present photo ID, which can disenfranchise some individuals.
  3. The elections in 2023 will have over 8,000 seats up for grabs across 230 councils, potentially indicating shifts in party dynamics.

An Interview with Mike Kofman

51 implied HN points • 06 Sep 23
  1. Mike Kofman correctly warned of the Russian invasion but the actual invasion didn't unfold as expected.
  2. The Russian invasion plan was based on flawed assumptions which led to unexpected outcomes.
  3. Ukraine's preparations for defense against a full-scale invasion were last-minute and focused more on Donbas.
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Case Closed

67 implied HN points • 07 Jun 23
  1. The involvement of Cabinet Secretary Simon Case is a common theme in various scandals, contributing to the current challenges faced by the government.
  2. Simon Case's management as Cabinet Secretary has been criticized for his lack of experience and failure to provide necessary advice to politicians, impacting the relationship between Ministers and officials.
  3. The Cabinet Secretary plays a crucial role in upholding the integrity of the government, and Simon Case's shortcomings have led to a collapse in the relationship between the civil service and its leadership, causing widespread demoralization.

Going Round in Circles

63 implied HN points • 21 Jun 23
  1. Election campaigns focus on achievements and negatives to prevent losing what's been gained.
  2. Rishi Sunak's government lacks achievements, causing challenges in gaining voter support.
  3. Negative campaigning, especially around economic stability and trust, may dominate in the upcoming elections.

Answering your questions

46 implied HN points • 24 Sep 23
  1. Subscribers sent in great questions to Sam and Lawrence Freedman.
  2. Lawrence discussed various topics like the impact of a Trump win on Ukraine, drones vs tanks, and the chances of a Russian collapse.
  3. Sam addressed topics such as priority setting for a new government, policies for growth, and the Tories' stance on the ECHR.

One Step at a Time: The Stages of War

81 implied HN points • 26 Feb 23
🌍 World Politics War Diplomacy Military Geopolitics Peace
  1. The duration of the war and the steps involved are uncertain, with constant speculation about its eventual end.
  2. Both sides are preparing for potential offensives, with the outcome of each stage shaping the next.
  3. Diplomatic efforts for peace face challenges due to differing priorities and the complexity of issues like war crimes and border demarcation.

The Role of Security Guarantees

55 implied HN points • 15 Jul 23
  1. Western military alliances have expanded and deepened over the past decade, adapting to new threats and forms of aggression.
  2. The growth of Western alliances is mainly a response to radicalization of Russian and Chinese policies, promoting stability and deterrence.
  3. Security guarantees for Ukraine are complex, involving diplomatic language, different types of commitments, and the need for continuing support and resources.

Demystifying Macron’s foreign policy

39 implied HN points • 25 Oct 23
  1. The 1956 Suez crisis influenced France's foreign policy approach.
  2. Macron emphasizes strong EU, multilateralism, and power balance in foreign policy.
  3. Macron's foreign policy style is characterized by frankness and provoking debate.

Is Russia losing?

99 implied HN points • 23 Nov 22
  1. Election predictions are easier than predicting war outcomes because wars involve ongoing events and decisions yet to be made.
  2. Assessments of the Russia-Ukraine war have shifted from early expectations of a Russian win to a potential Ukrainian victory.
  3. For Russia, failure to achieve its war aims has led to increased aggression and reliance on causing pain to Ukraine, while the international community increasingly sees the war as a lost cause.

The impact of sanctions

68 implied HN points • 26 Apr 23
  1. The West has supported Ukraine against Russia through military aid and economic sanctions.
  2. Despite the economic sanctions, Russia's economy coped better than expected due to higher oil prices.
  3. Sanctions on Russia have had limited impact, with the economy showing resilience and finding ways to adapt and evade them.

Why "Coalition of Chaos" won't work this time

62 implied HN points • 13 May 23
  1. The narrative shifted after local elections highlighting the concept of 'Coalition of Chaos' returning.
  2. Analysis shows Labour and Lib Dem efficiency could pose a threat to the Tories.
  3. Expect more focus on potential hung parliament scenarios and questioning of party deals leading up to election day.

Ordeals and the Empathy Gap

71 implied HN points • 18 Mar 23
  1. Government support during crises can be quick and effective, but questions arise on why it's not the same during normal times.
  2. Policy-makers often create obstacles called 'ordeals' in accessing services, leading to lack of transparency, accountability, and inefficiency.
  3. Using ordeals as policy tools, like imposing conditions or sanctions, often backfires and makes it harder for people to help themselves.

Spring Update

62 implied HN points • 12 Apr 23
  1. The author provides updates and shares insights on various topics on their Substack platform.
  2. The author mentions the impact of recommendations from other Substacks on driving sign-ups.
  3. Upcoming content includes more on UK policy, NHS challenges, education, and strategy, as well as updates on Ukraine and China.

Putin's Annexation and Lyman's Encirclement

87 implied HN points • 01 Oct 22
  1. Putin's speech on annexation challenges international law and diplomacy.
  2. Putin's military strategy of territorial grabs is weakening Russia's position.
  3. Nuclear threats and defiance escalate tensions between Russia and the West.

Send us your questions

45 implied HN points • 28 Jun 23
  1. The substack is about a father and son discussing strategy, conflicts, and politics.
  2. They have over 34,500 readers in 159 countries.
  3. They are inviting paid subscribers to ask them questions for a future post.

Putin's Twilight: a Prelude to Darkness or a New Dawn?

59 implied HN points • 04 Feb 23
  1. Putin's actions in Ukraine are about control, not just territory.
  2. A lasting peace in Ukraine would require Russia to respect Ukraine's sovereignty.
  3. For a definitive end to the conflict in Ukraine, a change in leadership in Russia may be necessary.

How to (Almost) Lose an Election

58 implied HN points • 11 Feb 23
  1. Comparing approval ratings of politicians can indicate election outcomes.
  2. Historical comparisons can provide insights into future election scenarios.
  3. Having a strong majority in an election is preferable for effective governance.

Defeating Treasury Brain

53 implied HN points • 12 Mar 23
  1. Delaying infrastructure projects affects economic growth and productivity
  2. Treasury's short-term approach to spending hinders long-term planning and increases costs
  3. The 'Treasury Brain' mentality impacts various policy areas and requires a shift towards more strategic investment

Beware the Squirrel

43 implied HN points • 17 May 23
  1. The hype around AI has been ongoing for quite some time, not just a recent trend.
  2. AI's recent peak in popularity can be attributed to the ChatGPT breakthrough.
  3. The fear of AI causing human extinction is gaining traction, but may not be as true as some make it out to be.

Am I Being Unfair on Boomers?

53 implied HN points • 22 Feb 23
  1. Intergenerational unfairness is a real issue, especially in wealth inequality between older and younger generations.
  2. Policy changes, such as implementing wealth taxes, are needed to address the widening wealth gap and promote a fairer society.
  3. Reforming existing taxes and considering a land value tax are potential solutions to effectively tax property wealth and address social changes.

Q+A: The Answers

37 implied HN points • 05 Jul 23
  1. Sam Freedman answered questions on various topics like upcoming by-elections and how to get a job in Westminster.
  2. Lawrence Freedman discussed the impact of substack on his approach as an analyst and implications of a Russian loss.
  3. The format of Q+A sessions will continue for paid subscribers to manage questions and provide regular content.

Could global energy markets become a weapon in the Hamas-Israel War?

24 implied HN points • 08 Nov 23
  1. Global energy markets could be used as a weapon in conflicts like the Hamas-Israel War.
  2. Lessons from past conflicts show that disruptions in energy supply can have significant economic impacts.
  3. The outcome of the current conflict in Gaza could have varying effects on energy markets and global economy.

The Language of War

45 implied HN points • 09 Mar 23
  1. The language used in military discussions reflects efforts to articulate hostile actions that are not necessarily lethal.
  2. Innovations in military language often stem from the development of new weapons or modes of warfare, like the shift to deterrence after nuclear weapons were introduced.
  3. Cyberattacks play a role in modern warfare but have yet to demonstrate the full potential often associated with them.

The Strategy Behind Moore's Law

40 implied HN points • 05 Apr 23
  1. Gordon Moore's 'law' of doubling transistors every 2 years was driven by strategic actions and confidence in products.
  2. Moore and Noyce's strategy at Intel delivered chips of increasing capacity at lower prices, outperforming competitors.
  3. Moore's Law success was also due to timing during the Cold War and support from America's missile and space programs.

Send Us Your Questions + A (Late) Summer Update

24 implied HN points • 12 Sep 23
  1. Send your questions for the Q+A session with the father-son duo
  2. Updates on Lawrence's latest book and recent writings
  3. Sam's recent feature articles and podcast series

Will (state) capitalism save the climate?

37 implied HN points • 19 Apr 23
  1. Transition to a low carbon economy is slow and might not prevent climate risks.
  2. Fossil fuels still dominate global energy use and contribute to increasing CO2 emissions.
  3. Renewables like solar and wind power are growing, but overall progress in reducing emissions is limited.

Why Apple Won the Personal Computer Race

34 implied HN points • 03 May 23
  1. Apple's success in the personal computer race was influenced by the counter-culture movement.
  2. Apple aimed to make computer technology accessible to the average person for social justice, contrasting with big companies' views.
  3. The story of Apple winning the computer race raises questions about the connection between counter-culture and computing, and why established companies missed the home computer market.

Is US support to Ukraine at risk from the Republicans?

39 implied HN points • 06 Mar 23
  1. Americans have historically shown extreme views in politics and religion.
  2. The US has been through turbulent political experiences, but has still remained a powerful nation.
  3. Concerns have arisen about US commitment to international alliances, especially with political shifts.

Reconstruction at a time of war

31 implied HN points • 31 May 23
  1. Ukraine is asking for help to defend itself and recover from the destruction caused by the war
  2. The war has severely impacted Ukraine's economy and infrastructure, requiring support for businesses and social stability
  3. International cooperation is crucial for Ukraine's recovery, including addressing environmental threats, social challenges, and pursuing justice for war crimes

Reassurance With a Purpose

39 implied HN points • 01 Mar 23
  1. Voters seek reassurance from leaders through clear negative statements rather than bold, radical ideas.
  2. Being cautious in politics can be effective in gaining voter trust and support.
  3. There is a balance needed in politics between reassurance and offering a positive vision for the future.

Doom Loop

47 implied HN points • 19 Nov 22
  1. UK government budgeting involves a game of fiscal conservatism and market credibility.
  2. Different politicians handle budget announcements differently for market reaction.
  3. Despite challenges, a politician managed to balance public spending and tax rises while avoiding blame.

Game Over?

52 implied HN points • 29 Sep 22
  1. Truss's cabinet and adviser picks lacked diversity and faced criticism for dogmatic tendencies.
  2. Kwasi Kwarteng proposed unnecessary tax cuts without a clear plan on how to pay for them, resulting in market instability and political damage.
  3. The government's handling of economic decisions has led to significant support for Labour and a decline in confidence in the Tories.

Blair's decision to support Bush's War

34 implied HN points • 20 Mar 23
  1. Blair's decision to support Bush's War was influenced by his previous success in the Kosovo War, which gave him confidence in his foreign policy judgment.
  2. Blair was concerned about US isolationism and was influenced by President Bill Clinton's handling of crises, leading him to believe the US might not engage with European crises in the future.
  3. Blair's observation of George W Bush's platform, suggesting US military power should be reserved only for big wars, also impacted his decision to support the war.

False Expectations

32 implied HN points • 29 Mar 23
  1. Initial warnings of energy crisis did not materialize
  2. Consumers reduced consumption by 15%
  3. Energy costs rise led to higher energy poverty in the UK

Books of the Year

39 implied HN points • 06 Dec 22
  1. The Free World by Louis Menand was a standout book in 2022, offering a comprehensive look at art and thought during the Cold War era.
  2. Putin's People by Catherine Belton provides valuable insights into Putin's rise to power and Russia's current state.
  3. Scout Mindset by Julia Galef introduces the concept of scout/soldier mindset, emphasizing the importance of seeking truth over defending opinions.

Does Artificial Intelligence Change the Nature of War?

24 implied HN points • 17 Jun 23
  1. Artificial Intelligence is a multi-faceted debate with concerns about possibilities and dangers.
  2. AI can make a substantial impact in solving complex problems but relies on quality data and advanced technology.
  3. In military contexts, AI raises fears about machines making autonomous decisions but many scenarios are still theoretical.

Collision Course

30 implied HN points • 24 Mar 23
  1. There are two sides to Rishi Sunak's leadership that involve different strategies.
  2. Sunak's political strategy involves a deliberate twin-track approach to appeal to different voter groups.
  3. One major risk to Sunak's strategy is the Illegal Migration Bill and its potential impact.