Comment is Freed

Comment is Freed, by Sam and Lawrence Freedman, focuses on providing in-depth analysis and commentary on global political events, policy analysis, and state affairs, with a significant focus on conflicts like the Russo-Ukraine War, tensions between Israel and Gaza, and Russian internal dynamics. It also explores election politics, strategies in conflicts, and broader geopolitical strategies.

Global Politics Policy Analysis Foreign Affairs Military Strategies Geopolitical Conflicts Election Politics Strategy and Tactics Government and Governance

The hottest Substack posts of Comment is Freed

And their main takeaways

Terrorism as Strategy

56 implied HN points • 13 Dec 23
  1. The term 'terrorist' can be subjective, leading to debates and challenges in labeling groups like Hamas.
  2. Understanding the motivations behind terrorist acts is crucial to address root causes and consider negotiation processes.
  3. Using the 'terrorist' label as a blanket term without understanding specific groups and their political agendas can lead to misconceptions and inappropriate denouncements.

Fairy Tales

64 implied HN points • 25 Nov 23
  1. The Autumn Statement had implausible spending cuts and relied on illusions of growth.
  2. The relationship between OBR, Treasury, and political parties is tense due to hidden disagreements in financial details.
  3. Labour's options in government are impacted by the decisions made in the Autumn Statement.

Ukraine's offensive: is it failing?

143 implied HN points • 23 Aug 23
🌍 World Politics Ukraine Russia Military Strategy
  1. The Russo-Ukraine War has reached its eighteen-month mark with neither side having a clear path to victory.
  2. There are critiques about Ukraine's offensive strategy and suggestions for a potential shift in approach.
  3. The political and military processes in Ukraine and Russia are complex, and the outcome of the war remains uncertain.

Liz Truss is right – Britain has become more left-wing

110 implied HN points • 21 Sep 23
🌍 World Politics Public Opinion Welfare Media influence
  1. The British public has shifted towards more left-wing views over the years based on surveys and data
  2. There has been a significant increase in support for government responsibility in areas like reducing income differences and providing a decent standard of living for the unemployed
  3. There is a noticeable change in attitude towards welfare recipients, with more people believing that many who receive benefits deserve help
Get a weekly roundup of the best Substack posts, by hacker news affinity:

Reflections on Kissinger's death and a visit to Vietnam

52 implied HN points • 06 Dec 23
  1. Henry Kissinger had a long and influential career in international diplomacy.
  2. Kissinger's legacy is debated due to his diplomatic achievements and controversial actions.
  3. Kissinger was known for his geopolitical theories and bureaucratic mastery.

My Kendom for a Horse?

143 implied HN points • 06 Aug 23
🎭️ Culture Analysis Movies Strategy Fiction Gender
  1. Barbie Land in the movie depicts themes of power, strategy, and a shift in political systems between Barbies and Kens.
  2. The strategic analysis highlights the importance of coalitions, indirect means, empathy, ideological commitment, legitimacy, and consequences of strategic choices.
  3. The Barbies use deception, understanding of their opponents, and misdirection to achieve their objectives in the face of a male-dominated society.

Stalemate, Zugzwang and a long Middle Game

103 implied HN points • 19 Sep 23
🌍 World Politics War Ukraine Russia Chess Metaphors
  1. Stalemate can highlight the need for diplomatic resolutions in war situations.
  2. The term 'stalemate' in chess refers to a specific situation where one player cannot make any legal moves, unique to the game.
  3. The concept of 'Zugzwang' in chess signifies being compelled to make a move that leads to a worse position, showcasing strategic vulnerability.

Attrition before breakthrough

165 implied HN points • 08 Jul 23
🌍 World Politics Military Strategy
  1. The Russo-Ukrainian War is all about territory and is a zero-sum game.
  2. Ukraine's strategy involves attrition before a breakthrough, degrading Russian defenses.
  3. Russia is heavily committed to the current battles but may be losing combat effectiveness.

The Narrow Path

67 implied HN points • 01 Nov 23
  1. Government spending reviews involve setting total spending and negotiating department budgets.
  2. Ministers and departments often battle behind the scenes to secure funding for their priorities.
  3. Labor party faces challenges in managing post-election spending review due to economic conditions.

Ukraine's Counter-Offensive: Setting Expectations

138 implied HN points • 30 Jul 23
🌍 World Politics Military Conflict Strategy Diplomacy Alliance
  1. Putin's determination to avoid loss in the war has had heavy consequences for both Ukraine and Russia.
  2. The success of Ukraine's offensive relies on their armed forces liberating territory to have a significant impact on Putin's positions.
  3. Ukraine faces challenges in their offensive due to Russian formidable defenses, coordination issues, and the need for caution in military progress assessments.

That was the coup that was

156 implied HN points • 26 Jun 23
🌍 World Politics Conflict Leadership Negotiations Military Coup
  1. Yevgeny Prigozhin's treasonous behavior led to a near coup in Russia, but he backed down in the end.
  2. The lack of mass support and negotiations led to Prigozhin's retreat from his march on Moscow.
  3. Putin's handling of the situation showed weaknesses, raising questions about his leadership in the face of challenges.

The Choice

88 implied HN points • 09 Sep 23
🌍 World Politics Government Healthcare Infrastructure Economy
  1. The government will need to spend over 45% of national income on public services, benefits, and debt repayments by the mid-2040s.
  2. There are limited options for the next government as previous strategies to avoid high costs are no longer viable.
  3. Despite potential economic growth, tough decisions and budget constraints lie ahead for the government.

Salami Slicing, Boiled Frogs, and Russian Red Lines

156 implied HN points • 04 Jun 23
🌍 World Politics Ukraine conflict
  1. Deterrence can be problematic when faced with gradual aggression and doubts about retaliation.
  2. Salami tactics involve slowly achieving goals through small, incremental steps.
  3. Western support for Ukraine increased after Russia's full-scale invasion, challenging Russian red lines and leading to incremental shifts in the conflict.

The Disconnect

100 implied HN points • 10 Aug 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Justice System Prison System Public Services
  1. Different narratives about crime can both be true and indicate complex issues in the criminal justice system.
  2. The increase in average prison sentence length contributes to prison overcrowding despite fewer people being charged with crimes.
  3. Austerity measures have disproportionately affected vulnerable services, creating a ripple effect of challenges across public services.

The Pivot

69 implied HN points • 16 Sep 23
  1. Labour may pivot to a more radical agenda post-election
  2. The political dynamics would shift if Labour wins the election
  3. Labour could face challenges in implementing their ambitious plans

The Rules of the Game

50 implied HN points • 22 Oct 23
  1. The Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) plays a crucial role in determining if the government is meeting fiscal rules.
  2. The forecasts from the OBR impact the decisions that the government can make regarding policies and public services.
  3. Independent forecasts provided by the OBR hold significant weight in demonstrating fiscal responsibility to the media.

Changing the Narrative: Disinformation campaigns and Social Media

60 implied HN points • 01 Oct 23
  1. Disinformation campaigns on social media can influence public perception, but their impact may be limited and dependent on existing beliefs.
  2. Efforts to use social media to change established views in areas of public concern are rarely straightforward, and awareness of risks is important in mitigating their effects.
  3. The digital information environment is complex and can be confusing, with challenges such as conspiracy theories and fake news, but also brings benefits for news, entertainment, and social connections.

The Global South, BRICS, and the G20

82 implied HN points • 13 Aug 23
🌍 World Politics Global South BRICS Russia
  1. The 'Global South' is not a homogenous group and has its distinct dynamics and interests.
  2. BRICS countries like Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa share economic significance and political viewpoints, such as advocating for multipolarity and de-dollarisation.
  3. Diplomatic peace initiatives by countries like Brazil, African nations, Saudi Arabia, and others demonstrate a shifting international landscape in response to the Russo-Ukraine War.

Populism vs Reality

74 implied HN points • 26 Aug 23
  1. The Conservatives are deeply split between radical right and centre-right factions.
  2. Political parties in Europe face divisions into radical right and centre-right groups.
  3. Populist leaders may have different actions in government than their promised radical approaches.

Sergei Karaganov Tries to Find a Way to Win Russia’s War

51 implied HN points • 11 Oct 23
  1. Sergei Karaganov is a Russian political scientist and influential figure in the Russian Federation.
  2. He is known for his involvement in advising Boris Yeltsin and Vladimir Putin.
  3. Karaganov's writings often reflect core themes of Putin's foreign policy and address the challenges of ending Russia's war.

The Death of Captain Waskow

118 implied HN points • 11 Jun 23
💾 History War World War II Journalism Military
  1. Captain Waskow was deeply respected by his soldiers, as seen in their reactions to his death
  2. Ernie Pyle's war reporting focused on humanizing ordinary soldiers and their experiences
  3. Infantry soldiers play a crucial and challenging role in wars, facing death and being vital for combat operations

Where does all the money come from?

53 implied HN points • 05 Oct 23
  1. Taxes have been increasing due to sluggish economic growth and higher costs of state programs.
  2. Borrowing money during COVID-19 has led to increased debt interest payments, requiring more taxation.
  3. Future governments may need to raise more revenue to support spending within fiscal rules.

What Works vs What Wins

73 implied HN points • 19 Aug 23
  1. Centrism as a political label can be vague and encompass a wide range of beliefs and individuals.
  2. Defining 'the centre' politically is challenging due to varying interpretations based on factors like ideology and policies.
  3. Examining New Labour's centrism helps highlight the successes, failures, and ongoing implications for leaders like Keir Starmer.

Wipeout

90 implied HN points • 12 Jul 23
🌍 World Politics Political Analysis Campaign strategies
  1. Polls show Labour and Conservatives have had stable numbers, but shifts in momentum affect perceptions.
  2. Rishi Sunak's lack of progress against pledges and rising interest rates have impacted the public perception of the Conservative party.
  3. There is a possibility of a Tory wipeout, despite historical trends suggesting political fortunes tend to improve from midterm to elections.

Oppenheimer: The Bomb, Morality and Strategy

75 implied HN points • 05 Aug 23
  1. Robert Oppenheimer discussed the potential destructive power between two Great Powers.
  2. Historical accuracy in movies, like Oppenheimer, can be appreciated by those familiar with the subject.
  3. Acknowledging errors and omissions can enhance the overall understanding of historical events.

Demystifying Macron’s foreign policy

39 implied HN points • 25 Oct 23
  1. The 1956 Suez crisis influenced France's foreign policy approach.
  2. Macron emphasizes strong EU, multilateralism, and power balance in foreign policy.
  3. Macron's foreign policy style is characterized by frankness and provoking debate.

How not to use polling

77 implied HN points • 26 Jul 23
  1. Interpreting single-issue polls can be misleading.
  2. Polling questions can be complex and easily influenced by wording.
  3. Following issue polling blindly may not reflect true public sentiment.

Breaking Point

72 implied HN points • 02 Aug 23
  1. The UK election seems predictable but the economy's uncertainty is a game changer.
  2. No one is addressing the long-term challenges in the country before the election.
  3. Post-election, there could be significant changes and internal party tensions for the Tories and Labour.

Answering your questions

46 implied HN points • 24 Sep 23
  1. Subscribers sent in great questions to Sam and Lawrence Freedman.
  2. Lawrence discussed various topics like the impact of a Trump win on Ukraine, drones vs tanks, and the chances of a Russian collapse.
  3. Sam addressed topics such as priority setting for a new government, policies for growth, and the Tories' stance on the ECHR.

An Interview with Mike Kofman

51 implied HN points • 06 Sep 23
  1. Mike Kofman correctly warned of the Russian invasion but the actual invasion didn't unfold as expected.
  2. The Russian invasion plan was based on flawed assumptions which led to unexpected outcomes.
  3. Ukraine's preparations for defense against a full-scale invasion were last-minute and focused more on Donbas.

Misuse of Power

106 implied HN points • 22 Apr 23
🌍 World Politics Bullying Public Opinion
  1. Dominic Raab's resignation may not be significant due to the limited role of Deputy Prime Ministers in the British system.
  2. Raab's behavior and reputation revealed more about the culture of Westminster than his actual actions.
  3. The public's perception of politicians is generally low, making scandals like Raab's unlikely to drastically change voting preferences.

China and Russia: The Weight of History

63 implied HN points • 23 Jul 23
  1. The Sino-Russian relationship has a complex history that may not be well understood by many policymakers.
  2. There was tension between Moscow and Beijing during the Cold War, but Nixon's diplomacy with China changed the dynamics of international relations.
  3. The US shift to recognizing Beijing over Taipei as the legitimate Chinese government has had lasting effects on Sino-US relations.