Don't Worry About the Vase

A world made of gears. Doing both speed premium short term updates and long term world model building. Currently focused on weekly AI updates. Explorations include AI, policy, rationality, medicine and fertility, education and games.

The hottest Substack posts of Don't Worry About the Vase

And their main takeaways

The Case Against Education

0 implied HN points • 15 Apr 18
  1. School is often seen as a prison where learning is not the primary goal.
  2. The traditional education system may not effectively teach valuable skills or knowledge.
  3. The economist Bryan Caplan suggests that there is too much formal education and advocates for separating school and state.

AI Alignment Prize: Round 2 due March 31, 2018

0 implied HN points • 12 Mar 18
  1. The AI Alignment Prize Round 2 deadline is on March 31, 2018
  2. Entries should focus on advancing our understanding of AI alignment
  3. The winners will receive at least $10,000 in prize money

Categories of Sacredness

0 implied HN points • 27 Feb 18
  1. Things are sacred if they matter and cannot be bought
  2. In games, sacredness ensures that the focus is on playing and not on money
  3. Sacredness can help protect the value and integrity of certain activities from commercialization

Eternal, and Hearthstone Economy versus Magic Economy

0 implied HN points • 10 Feb 18
  1. Eternal offers a modern Magic gameplay experience on a phone with a Hearthstone interface and economy.
  2. Magic's economy involves trading cards with monetary value, while Hearthstone and Eternal lock cards to player accounts, limiting trading.
  3. Trading cards in games like Magic offers advantages like creating value and market incentives, but can also be time-consuming and complex.

Still Not in Charge

0 implied HN points • 09 Feb 21
  1. There are disagreements on the Utility Function Hypothesis (UFH) and Efficient Action Hypothesis (EAH)
  2. Politicians may not be goal maximizers but adaptation executors seeking power
  3. Improvements can be made in the political system without needing complete overhaul
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Bring Back the Sabbath

0 implied HN points • 07 Oct 17
  1. Introduce clear boundaries for relaxation and personal time, like bringing back the concept of Sabbath
  2. Establish rituals and rules to create a dedicated time for rest and rejuvenation
  3. Prioritize activities that promote relaxation and avoid tasks that add stress during the designated rest period

Slack

0 implied HN points • 30 Sep 17
  1. Slack means having margin for error and pursuing opportunities
  2. Losing Slack leads to being bound by constraints
  3. Protect your Slack, value it and guard it, and respect others' Slack

Fourth Wave Covid Toy Modeling

0 implied HN points • 06 Jan 21
  1. No one is creating realistic models of Covid scenarios, so this post provides a starting point.
  2. Speeding up vaccinations is crucial to control the crisis, even with simplified toy models.
  3. Incorporating factors like vaccination timing, control mechanisms, and heterogeneity can drastically impact outcomes.

Help Us Find Your Blog (and others)

0 implied HN points • 23 Apr 17
  1. Help promote personal blogs by sharing links and recommendations.
  2. Encourage blog owners to share their best posts for feedback and exposure.
  3. Suggest and discover new blogs by recommending up to three others for consideration.

The One Mistake Rule

0 implied HN points • 10 Apr 20
  1. If a model gives a definitely wrong answer anywhere, it is useless everywhere.
  2. Make sure your model doesn't have obviously wrong answers before using it.
  3. Continuously review, fix, and improve your model to ensure accuracy.

Mazes Sequence Roundup: Final Thoughts and Paths Forward

0 implied HN points • 06 Feb 20
  1. Mazes are created and supported by a mindset that opposes value and logic.
  2. The world improves through the replacement of old, worsening things with new, better things.
  3. Understanding maze behaviors and implementing practical career advice can help avoid falling into maze traps.

The Darwin Pregame

0 implied HN points • 21 Nov 17
  1. The Darwin Game consists of early, middle, and end game stages, each with specific strategies.
  2. Different bot strategies like AttackBot, BullyBot, and FoldBot have strengths and weaknesses throughout the game.
  3. Considering cooperation, defense, and balance are key to success in the Darwin Game.

Complexity Is Bad

0 implied HN points • 25 Jul 17
  1. Complexity can lead to bad outcomes as people have limited attention and capacity to process information.
  2. Simplifying complexity can lead to more elegant solutions and better understanding.
  3. Balancing complexity is important for efficiency and effectiveness in design and decision-making.

The Uncertainty of Death and Taxes

0 implied HN points • 21 Oct 20
  1. Death and Taxes game illustrates the complexity of life and decisions under uncertainty.
  2. The game loses its meaning and interest once certainty is achieved and choices become routine.
  3. Training in life often requires a balance of modes, starting with an 'Easy Level on Hard Mode' for deliberate practice.

Spoiler-Free Review: Orwell

0 implied HN points • 16 Sep 20
  1. Orwell is a game in the discrete-choices-over-time genre.
  2. To fully enjoy Orwell, play it blindly without spoilers.
  3. Consider playing Orwell only if the concept interests you.

Wordpress Destroys Editing Process, Seeking Alternatives

0 implied HN points • 18 Aug 20
  1. Wordpress replaced a working editor with a non-functional one.
  2. Switching back to the old editor might require paying for an upgraded account.
  3. Looking for alternative hosting services that can seamlessly transfer old blog contents.

Covid 7/23: The Second Summit

0 implied HN points • 23 Jul 20
  1. Positive test rates are likely peaking and deaths are rising slower than expected, indicating some success in handling the pandemic.
  2. Infections are increasing slightly due to more testing, deaths are rising in the South but dropping in the Midwest and West.
  3. Herd immunity is playing a significant role in reducing infections, and immunity lasts longer than some fear mongers suggest.

Spoiler-Free Review: Horizon Zero Dawn

0 implied HN points • 07 Jul 20
  1. The game has frustrating platforming challenges with instant death consequences.
  2. Inventory management and gathering resources are tedious and limit gameplay options.
  3. Combat mechanics in the game are centered around repetitive strategies and lack complexity.

Linkpost: M21 Review: We Have Normality

0 implied HN points • 24 Jun 20
  1. The post is a review of the M21 set
  2. The author is Zvi Mowshowitz
  3. The review may contain insights and opinions on the set

Covid-19: My Current Model

0 implied HN points • 31 May 20
  1. Risks of Covid-19 follow power laws, focus on reducing very risky actions
  2. Governments are misleading and lack planning to combat the pandemic effectively
  3. Important to understand the actual risks surrounding surfaces, outdoor activities, and wearing masks

Simulacra Levels and their Interactions

0 implied HN points • 15 Jun 20
  1. Simulacra Levels explain how actions and statements operate on four levels simultaneously.
  2. Different roles exist like the Oracle, Trickster, Sage, and Pragmatist, each with a specific way of approaching and interpreting information.
  3. Understanding these levels can help in analyzing behaviors, decision-making, and the dynamics of groups or societies.

Covid-19 6/4: The Eye of the Storm

0 implied HN points • 04 Jun 20
  1. The ongoing protests against police brutality during Covid-19 will likely lead to a surge in new infections.
  2. The pandemic situation continues to change, with different regions experiencing varying trends in positive cases and deaths.
  3. The future path of the pandemic will depend on how individuals adjust their behaviors and the impact of partial herd immunity.

Do It Now

0 implied HN points • 22 May 20
  1. Keep a record of tasks you've decided to do.
  2. If a task takes less than two minutes, do it right away.
  3. Having a system in place to remember tasks is important.

Covid-19 5/7: Fighting Limbo

0 implied HN points • 07 May 20
  1. New York seeing rapid decline in positive test rates and potential herd immunity.
  2. Herd immunity doesn't require 75% infected, partial immunity plays a significant role.
  3. Regions outside New York still stuck in limbo, need better data and enforcement of rules.

On Negative Feedback and Simulacra

0 implied HN points • 03 May 20
  1. Simulacrum levels are important in decision-making and communication.
  2. Sharing true information can have both positive and negative consequences.
  3. It's crucial to balance honesty with the impact of one's words on others.

My Covid-19 Thinking: 4/17

0 implied HN points • 17 Apr 20
  1. Interpreting Covid-19 data relies on understanding test positivity rates rather than just positive test numbers.
  2. In New York and New Jersey, positive test rates are declining, indicating some progress against the virus.
  3. Nationwide, there are differences in infection rates and testing limitations, making it challenging to accurately predict the trajectory of the pandemic.

On R0

0 implied HN points • 07 Apr 20
  1. Keeping R0 below 1 is key to controlling infections.
  2. Reducing contact and exposure through interventions and immunity helps lower R0.
  3. R0 variance can complicate controlling the spread, but targeted interventions and herd immunity play significant roles.

Let My People Stay Home

0 implied HN points • 17 Mar 20
  1. Preparing for emergencies is important, but be cautious of overreacting.
  2. Adapting to changing circumstances is key for survival.
  3. Society's failures are being unveiled, but there is hope for improvement.

Coronavirus is Here

0 implied HN points • 02 Mar 20
  1. Things will likely get worse before they get better.
  2. Prepare mentally and physically for the situation, especially if you're at greater risk.
  3. Take necessary precautions like stocking up on supplies, avoiding travel, and practicing good hygiene.

Potential Ways to Fight Mazes

0 implied HN points • 28 Jan 20
  1. Starting with knowledge of the problem is important to find solutions.
  2. Regulatory reform and ending corporate welfare can help fight mazes.
  3. Changing consumer behavior and valuing honest work can combat maze legitimacy and status.

How to Identify an Immoral Maze

0 implied HN points • 12 Jan 20
  1. Identify immoral mazes in organizations that prioritize advancement at the cost of morality, family, and clear thinking.
  2. Look for skin in the game as a defense against mazes and prioritize soul in the game above all.
  3. Pay attention to the hierarchy levels, skin in the game, soul in the game, and job descriptions to assess if an organization is an immoral maze.

Stripping Away the Protections

0 implied HN points • 08 Jan 20
  1. The protections against super-perfect competition have been stripped away in today's corporate environments.
  2. In immoral mazes, managers are homogenized into a standard product and judged on conformity and politics.
  3. Graceful retirement or opting out of the game is a strategy for managers unable to fit the mold of 'successful middle manager.'

Does Big Business Hate Your Family?

0 implied HN points • 31 Dec 19
  1. Sufficiently powerful optimization can destroy all value in different contexts.
  2. Corporations are not agents, but composed of individuals with preferences.
  3. Having preferences besides career advancement can be seen as a liability in a corporate context.

Linkpost: Searching Along the Trail of Crumbs

0 implied HN points • 05 Dec 19
  1. Zvi Mowshowitz shares a guide about all cards Cats in Standard.
  2. Check out the guide on CoolStuffInc.
  3. Engage by commenting or asking questions on the article.

Artifact: What Went Wrong?

0 implied HN points • 08 Oct 19
  1. Artifact faced various challenges, including issues with complexity and confusion in gameplay.
  2. The game lacked a strong outer loop, meaningful economic model, and a good budget format.
  3. Valve did not react effectively to the game's initial failures, resulting in a decline in player base and negative perceptions.

Free Money at PredictIt?

0 implied HN points • 26 Sep 19
  1. There is a potential opportunity for free money at PredictIt by analyzing and taking advantage of discrepancies in market odds.
  2. It's important to be aware of the fees associated with trading at PredictIt, such as the 10% fee on profits and 5% withdrawal fee.
  3. Prediction markets can be distorted by factors like fees, capital costs, and inefficiencies, leading to opportunities for astute traders to take advantage of.

Counterfactuals about Social Media

0 implied HN points • 22 Apr 19
  1. Social media is ruining our lives directly.
  2. Social media's success is due to network effects.
  3. Users should abandon platforms like Facebook and gain control over interactions.

Speculations on Duo Standard

0 implied HN points • 14 Mar 19
  1. Players in Duo Standard need to carefully strategize deck choices for the format's unique structure.
  2. Different deck pairings offer various advantages, like presenting diverse challenges or creating high variance strategies.
  3. Despite challenges, maintaining a balance between variance and solid offerings is key for players in Duo Standard.

New York Restaurants I Love: Breakfast

0 implied HN points • 14 Feb 19
  1. Favorite breakfast spots in New York City bring comfort and joy.
  2. Support local eateries to help them thrive and share your beloved restaurants with others.
  3. Making high-quality breakfast foods at home can be easy and satisfying, like French toast and pancakes.