The hottest Climate Modeling Substack posts right now

Global warming has clearly accelerated since about 2015, with recent warming rates more than double the long-term 1970–2010 trend.
If the next La Niña low is higher than past El Niño highs, that would confirm the faster warming and make 2°C of global warming likely in the 2030s instead of midcentury.
The practical response is to plan and prepare to adapt to greater climate risks while still living well and focusing on what matters in daily life.

RCP8.5 is a worst-case climate scenario that is based on very unlikely assumptions and does not reflect current realities. It is important to understand that it's not just improbable, but actually impossible based on recent data.
Defining a 'worst case' scenario isn’t straightforward. It can be influenced by values and politics, as different people might see different outcomes as more or less desirable.
Creating climate scenarios should involve a broader group, including experts and everyday people. This way, we can address the political aspects and ensure the scenarios used for policy-making are relevant and realistic.

Global warming is accelerating now, with a projection of about +1.7°C global temperature in 2027 and an observed rate near 0.31°C per decade. This pace, if it continues, means steady and rapid temperature increases over the coming decades.
If today’s warming and CO2 trends hold, mid‑century and later decades could see temperatures well above 2°C and atmospheric CO2 possibly topping ~500 ppm by 2050, which would be dangerous for future generations. These changes will reshape lives within the lifetimes of people alive today.
AI-generated fakery is becoming startlingly realistic, with faces and gestures that look human; this trend raises serious concerns about misinformation, cultural erosion, and how we’ll remember the past.

Models that only use average temperature changes miss important effects and tend to underestimate economic damage from climate change.
Higher average temperatures increase the chance of extreme heat waves and heavy precipitation, and these extreme events cause most of the economic harm.
Including within-year temperature variation raises estimated damages a lot—roughly 13% more in temperate regions and about 47% more in continental climates—showing impacts differ greatly by region.

Artificial intelligence can optimize the way we live, work, and allocate resources to fight climate change and adapt to its effects.
There are opportunities for startups and corporations to use AI in combating climate change by analyzing data and making informed decisions.
AI has potential in climate tech for mitigation, adaptation, resilience, and fundamentals like climate research, climate finance, and behavioral changes.

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Economists are focusing on assessing the economic risks posed by the planetary crisis.
The Biden Administration has released a memo addressing near-term macroeconomic and financial climate risks.
The memo suggests accounting for extreme event risks, transitional dynamics, and effects on particular income groups.