The Honest Broker Newsletter

The Honest Broker Newsletter scrutinizes the interplay between science, policy, and politics, particularly in climate science. It challenges the integrity of peer review processes, the media's role in climate communication, the politicization of scientific publishing, and misinformation. It advocates for transparency, accurate data use for policy-making, and revisits global energy strategies.

Climate Science and Policy Media and Communication Scientific Integrity and Peer Review Energy Policy and Fossil Fuels Misinformation and Public Perception Scientific Publishing Politics Global Warming and Environmental Management Nuclear Energy as an Alternative COVID-19 Origins and Misinformation Role of Mathematics in Policy Research Influence of Apocalypticism on Climate Policy

The hottest Substack posts of The Honest Broker Newsletter

And their main takeaways

Summer School is In

755 implied HN points • 23 Jun 25

Climate change is a big issue that affects the economy, and there are many different opinions on how to deal with it.
The course aims to teach students about climate science and policies, focusing on practical solutions in a complex political environment.
Students will get access to a reading list that supplements the lectures, helping them explore different perspectives on climate issues.

What Did We Expect Would Happen?

2365 implied HN points • 18 Jun 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Science Public Policy Partisanship Higher education

Over the years, science has become very political in the U.S., with both major parties using it to gain power. This shift means scientists and universities are often seen as part of the political fight instead of neutral sources of knowledge.
Democrats have begun to support science more because it helps their wealthy, educated voters, while Republicans have moved away from it, positioning it as elitist. This division creates a big gap in how each side views scientific authority.
Many scientists have chosen sides in these political battles, which hurts the public's trust in science. The original idea that science benefits everyone, regardless of their political views, has been largely forgotten.

The Most Amazing Climate Policy Figure

2227 implied HN points • 16 Jun 25

🌞 Climate & Environment Climate Policy Decarbonization Energy consumption Sustainability

The U.S. has made steady progress in reducing carbon emissions while growing its economy. This decarbonization happened even with changes in political leadership and policies.
A significant factor in reducing emissions has been the shift from coal to cleaner energy sources like natural gas and renewables. This change shows how technology can help improve environmental outcomes.
Understanding why decarbonization has been consistent is important. It can help policymakers find ways to continue this trend and achieve goals like net-zero emissions by mid-century.

"The Global Fertility Crisis is Worse than You Think"

2159 implied HN points • 13 Jun 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Demography Policy Economy Population Global trends

Fertility rates are dropping globally, and it's happening faster than expected. This decline is seen in both wealthy and poorer countries.
Many countries' fertility rates have fallen below the replacement rate required to sustain their populations. This means that if it continues, the world's population will eventually shrink drastically.
Experts are concerned that the global fertility crisis could lead to significant economic and social issues in the future, making it a serious issue that might need international attention.

What is a "Worst Case" Climate Scenario?

2482 implied HN points • 04 Jun 25

🌞 Climate & Environment Climate Science Environmental Policy Sustainability

RCP8.5 is a worst-case climate scenario that is based on very unlikely assumptions and does not reflect current realities. It is important to understand that it's not just improbable, but actually impossible based on recent data.
Defining a 'worst case' scenario isn’t straightforward. It can be influenced by values and politics, as different people might see different outcomes as more or less desirable.
Creating climate scenarios should involve a broader group, including experts and everyday people. This way, we can address the political aspects and ensure the scenarios used for policy-making are relevant and realistic.

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Whose Experts?

1118 implied HN points • 10 Jun 25

🏥 Health Politics Public Health Vaccine Policy Trust Issues Political Influence

RFK Jr. removed the entire vaccine advisory committee to try to restore public trust in vaccines. This move sparked debate about whether it truly addresses the underlying issues of trust.
Public trust in health institutions has been declining, especially along party lines. Democrats and Republicans view vaccine safety and the credibility of health agencies differently.
Political influence on scientific advice can be harmful. Experts should be chosen for their competency, not their political ties, to ensure credible and trusted public health guidance.

Atlantic Hurricanes Preseason 2025

1943 implied HN points • 30 May 25

🌞 Climate & Environment Hurricanes Climate change Weather Patterns Natural Disasters

So far in 2025, there haven't been any hurricanes in the Northern Hemisphere, which could set a new record for the latest first hurricane. This shows there's a significant lack of storm activity this year.
It's important to focus on data when discussing hurricane activity rather than just opinions. Data can give us a clearer picture of changes in hurricane behavior and climate science.
The NOAA suggests that we shouldn't rush to say human-caused climate change has changed hurricane activity a lot. There's still a lot we don't know about how these storms are behaving.

A Better Approach to Climate Policy

1884 implied HN points • 26 May 25

🌞 Climate & Environment Climate Policy Sustainable Development Environmental Impact

The Hartwell Paper suggests that climate policy should focus more on solving real-life problems like air pollution and poverty instead of just cutting emissions. This approach could lead to better solutions for everyone.
Instead of relying on strict global agreements, climate policy should be decentralized and innovative. Local and regional solutions can be more effective and politically accepted.
Successful climate policy should provide clear benefits to people, such as better air quality and energy security. When people see direct advantages, they are more likely to support climate initiatives.

The Politicization of Intelligence

1118 implied HN points • 02 Jun 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Intelligence Decision-making Policy Analysis Political theory Ethics

Intelligence can be influenced by politics, which means the information gathered isn't always objective. This can lead to bad decisions based on flawed data.
It's important for decision-makers to be open to different views and facts, even if they don't fit their hopes. Ignoring contrary evidence can lead to problems, like the difficulties faced in Iraq.
Leaders in politics and intelligence need to focus on reality and not let political agendas shape the truth. Good outcomes come from honest assessments, not just from trying to win political arguments.

Taking Institutional Neutrality Seriously on Campus

1050 implied HN points • 27 May 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Higher education Political Neutrality Academic Freedom Public Policy Political Advocacy

Neutrality in universities sounds good but is hard to achieve in reality. It can lead to messy situations where it's unclear what position is acceptable or not.
Some universities have shifted towards being more politically active, which can hurt their public support. People want universities to serve all views, not just those of a few.
The way universities handle controversial topics needs strong leadership. It’s important for leaders to find a balance between being neutral and supporting necessary public health or social issues.

Five of My Favorite Papers and the Stories Behind Them

372 implied HN points • 06 Jun 25

🔬 Science Research Academia Publications Analysis Education

Five chosen papers reflect intense moments of learning and clarity during writing. They are special, not necessarily the most popular ones.
The feeling of being 'in the zone' is compared to a competitive athlete's experience, highlighting hard work leading to success.
Updates include easier access to past writings and resources for paid subscribers, plus discounts for students and military personnel.

From Idealism to Realism

4357 implied HN points • 13 Jan 25

🌞 Climate & Environment Climate Science Geopolitics Environmental Policy Sustainability Crisis Management

Geopolitics often influences climate policies more than climate science itself. Countries prioritize their own interests over global climate agreements.
The belief that scientific knowledge would automatically lead to climate action has proven overly optimistic. Many expected that understanding climate issues would unite nations, but it hasn't happened.
Adapting to climate change is a slow process. The world will continue to gradually change, but there won't be a simple or happy resolution to the challenges posed by a warming planet.

Six Things to Know About Your Electric Utility

3179 implied HN points • 30 Jan 25

🌞 Climate & Environment Energy Policy Renewable Energy Infrastructure Environmental Impact

Utilities have to serve everyone in their area, which limits how much risk they can take on new technologies. They often focus on proven ideas to avoid wasting customer money.
Community opposition can make it really hard for utilities to expand infrastructure. This can slow down projects that are important for energy needs, as people often don’t want facilities near them.
The push for renewable energy is complicated. While renewables can be cheaper, the technology for storing energy isn't perfect yet, leading utilities to still rely on fossil fuels during certain times.

California's Insurance Crisis

3533 implied HN points • 20 Jan 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Insurance Policy Public Policy Climate Policy Economic Impact

California's insurance crisis isn't mainly caused by climate change, but by how insurance rates are set. Policies like Proposition 103 prevent companies from charging enough to cover risks.
Insurance rates are usually suppressed to keep costs low for consumers, which means insurance companies can struggle to stay in business. This leads to fewer companies wanting to offer home insurance in California.
To fix the insurance crisis, California needs to adjust its laws to better reflect the real risks and costs of coverage. This will likely mean higher insurance rates for homeowners.

The Most Major Hurricanes Ever

2973 implied HN points • 27 Jan 25

🌞 Climate & Environment Climate change Weather Patterns Natural Disasters Data Analysis

In 2024, there were a lot of major hurricanes, tying with 2015 for the highest since records began, which raises questions about climate patterns.
Despite the increase in hurricane landfalls, there hasn't been a clear trend showing that hurricanes are becoming more intense or frequent over time.
Experts believe that while human activity may influence hurricanes, detecting these changes amidst natural variability is very challenging.

The North American Fire Deficit

2345 implied HN points • 12 Feb 25

🌞 Climate & Environment Ecosystems Climate change Environmental Policy

North America is experiencing a significant 'fire deficit', meaning that the amount of land burning now is much lower than in the past. Even with recent fire years, the area burned is still far less than historical averages.
The study suggests that aggressive fire suppression and land changes caused by human activities are major reasons for this fire deficit. This has led to more severe fires when they do occur because there is more fuel buildup in the forests.
To manage future fires better, the study recommends increasing prescribed burning and using fire as a natural part of forest ecosystems. This approach could help reduce the severity of wildfires and improve the health of the forests.

How to Get Rid of a Tenured Professor

4249 implied HN points • 16 Dec 24

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Academic Freedom Higher education Political Advocacy

Universities are becoming more politicized, making it harder for professors to speak freely. Many faculty feel they can't express their opinions without fear of backlash or discipline.
Tenured professors can face significant challenges, including administrative pressure and hostile work environments. This can happen despite their experience and achievements.
Academic freedom is at risk when universities prioritize political agendas over teaching and research. When that's the case, it often leads to a lack of support for diverse viewpoints.

The Secret Behind Europe's Outsized Influence in Climate Science and Policy

3287 implied HN points • 04 Jan 25

🌞 Climate & Environment Climate Science Policy Influence Sustainability Energy Sources

A study shows that most climate scenarios used in global reports come from Europe. This means European views and ideas shape how we think about climate change.
Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are important tools in climate science, but they can reflect the biases and values of their developers. This could lead to skewed perceptions of energy sources like renewables compared to nuclear.
The global efforts in climate modeling may not consider the needs of developing countries as much. Scenarios are often influenced by wealthy nations and may overlook how different regions approach climate solutions.

"Climate Change is Showing its Claws"

2718 implied HN points • 12 Jan 25

🌞 Climate & Environment Climate change Natural Disasters Insurance Economics Global trends

In 2024, global weather-related disaster losses reached $298 billion, with a significant portion occurring in the U.S., mainly due to hurricanes. This shows that while climate change impacts us, other factors like economic growth also play a big role.
Today, disaster losses as a percentage of global GDP are less than they were 30 years ago. This suggests that despite increasing losses in dollars, extreme weather is not as devastating to the economy as it used to be.
The rising insured losses are largely driven by construction in risky areas and inflation, rather than just climate change. It's important to consider these factors when looking at why disaster losses are increasing.

The Dilemmas of Democracy

1717 implied HN points • 17 Feb 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Democracy Governance Constitution Political theory Executive Power

Democracy relies on a mix of regular people and experts working together. Everyone is a bit ignorant, but collaboration can help us make better decisions.
Respecting the Constitution is key for effective governance and means no one group gets everything they want. Compromise and understanding are essential in a democracy.
How leaders respond to challenges today will affect the future of governance. They need to be responsible and committed to including everyone in the decision-making process.

Tricks of the Trade

3012 implied HN points • 30 Dec 24

🌞 Climate & Environment Climate Science Environmental Policy Climate change

Many claims about hurricanes becoming stronger due to climate change are inflated. For example, a recent study suggested a storm was 40% more likely, but a closer look shows it was actually a small increase from 7.2% to 10%.
Some scientific methods assume that every storm is affected by climate change without considering other factors. This oversimplification can lead to misleading results, like claiming a storm was 7,000% more likely when it’s really about understanding many influencing factors.
Recent research indicates that in some areas, tropical cyclones are not actually becoming more destructive and may even be decreasing in intensity. This contradicts the narrative that climate change always leads to worse storms.

IPCC at the Crossroads

2011 implied HN points • 03 Feb 25

🌞 Climate & Environment Climate Policy

The IPCC is facing challenges keeping its assessments reliable and credible. If it doesn’t improve, it risks losing public trust.
The amount of climate research published is increasing rapidly, making it tough for the IPCC to cite all relevant studies. This can lead to biases in its reports.
There's a concern that the IPCC may be selectively citing studies, which could misrepresent the broader scientific consensus on climate issues.

Climate Science Whiplash

2424 implied HN points • 17 Jan 25

🌞 Climate & Environment Climate change Weather Patterns Environmental Science Policy Analysis Media influence

Climate science can seem confusing and contradictory, leading to what people call 'climate science whiplash.' Different studies can say opposite things, making it hard to know what to believe.
When extreme weather happens, people easily find studies that support their views, often ignoring the bigger picture. This selective use of science is like picking only the pieces of a puzzle that fit into your view.
It's important to trust rigorous assessments from credible sources like the IPCC. They provide a clearer picture of climate change effects, helping us understand what we should really worry about.

To Assess or to Advocate?

3258 implied HN points • 11 Dec 24

🌞 Climate & Environment Climate change Environmental advocacy

The IPCC's main job is to provide clear and neutral scientific assessments about climate change, not to promote specific policies or technologies.
Recently, the IPCC has started to lean more towards climate advocacy, which could hurt its credibility and the trust it has with policymakers and the public.
To stay credible, the IPCC needs to focus on its original mission of assessing climate science accurately and include a variety of views instead of pushing for specific actions.

Meta's Content Moderation Turnabout

2443 implied HN points • 07 Jan 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Free speech Content Moderation Democracy Fact-checking Social media

Meta, the parent company of Facebook, has decided to stop using 'fact checkers' to manage content. They believe this approach has led to too much censorship and frustration among users.
A key issue in democracy is the need for accurate information while facing challenges in understanding the world. People often rely on biased or second-hand information for decision-making.
The struggle for truth and reliable information is complicated by various viewpoints. Finding a balance between expertise and public freedom of expression is essential for a healthy democracy.

Hits and Misses

1599 implied HN points • 10 Feb 25

🌞 Climate & Environment Energy Policy Sustainability Renewable Energy Global trends

IEA scenarios are not predictions but imaginative sequences that help envision possible futures. They aim to guide policy but vary in how closely they match reality.
Outlook scenarios from the IEA have performed better than normative ones, showing a steady rise in global energy demand instead of a decline.
There are big gaps between IEA projections for solar and nuclear energy and real-world outcomes, highlighting the need for better understanding and scenario evaluation.

Keeping Up

1668 implied HN points • 05 Feb 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Energy Policy Trade policy Political institutions Science Policy International Aid

There is ongoing discussion about U.S. energy policy, with various viewpoints providing insights into how it could be improved. An analysis from Colorado highlights broader implications that can be relevant to other states too.
The debate surrounding the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) continues, focusing on whether the president can dissolve or change it through executive order. This raises important questions about the agency's role and effectiveness.
Concerns about protectionism and trade wars are being critically evaluated, showing that both major political parties are engaged in this issue. Recent tariff proposals also raise questions about their economic and fiscal impacts.

U.S. Hurricane Overview 2024

2453 implied HN points • 05 Dec 24

🌞 Climate & Environment Climate change Natural Disasters Meteorology Environmental Policy Public Safety

IncorporATINGcINFORMATIONALPANTLITACORDINGPLANDTLLGLNTVNTNAIRULTOTLNDMLTSNUPLSCYNTHININGNTNAMODTNTMLITYNTMAINTPLFINAINCT_UNIDAPITANLPTRAPULNTACDLOSONGHTBOUSCO_FFI_TLANTIR_AOTUFOQPKTTSNJOBSCOTPLATULNNA_MCOPOITMRAUSOONNA_CMNCAVSCOAWLTTBA_AWOLNTNPCLTIIF_USIWYSOFOKLNCINNTIRAMOLANFOLMUNGTMLMSNALITNCPLT_ALNUM_FFYN_TVOFNNTA_THNIOF_TOR_TFNAACNCNSWATNDF_TL_AATITMNA_LWIMSPWAAINFANNNLKCURRNTNCT
ForongIITNLN_NIWHMNTMLAWSN_O_LINKATNGCLS_TFLNANF_TLIFURICRFOUOG_IITLUATNIIOATCSYPISITPLWCMNLWTI_AFOCRUFOUROTL_LIGHTNNBTIMYSWPLTOAWNITCLATO_A_SHALLOORA_OWNOITLLANFOA_TLNDUTMIOUSHCIMNT
HURTLYA_WA_A_STANMUN_SPOWTTOITOLTLTROUC_ANIACUWTNRCICOMTI_TOSMFINKSI_W_AYNUSAHFLANTCVIF_RAWSOUFAT_T_M_TOTWTOUFOA_BMPOLO_IT_OWASW_A_ND_S_API_NSCAASATSCOD

How Universities Went Off Track

2051 implied HN points • 08 Dec 24

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Advocacy Public Trust Higher education Partisanship

Many people are losing trust in universities, especially conservatives and working-class folks. The political views of university staff are mostly leaning left, making this trust fall even more.
Changes in society are pushing universities to be more politically involved. They need to show how their research benefits society, which can lead to more advocacy instead of just education.
There is pressure within universities to support certain political ideas, which can stifle open discussions. A lot of people feel they can’t speak up if they don’t share the same views as the majority.

Why Policy Causality Matters

1442 implied HN points • 11 Jan 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis Disaster Management Climate Policy Risk Assessment

Understanding policy causality is crucial for making effective decisions, especially in contexts like disaster risk reduction. It's important to know how actions lead to specific outcomes.
Distinguishing between different types of causality, like proximal and distal, helps identify what actions can prevent future disasters. Not all causes can be controlled, but some can be influenced through policy.
Communicating about causality can be tricky because narratives and models may mislead people. It's key to ground discussions in solid evidence to avoid bad policy choices.

Partisan Professors

2129 implied HN points • 02 Dec 24

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Higher education Political Ideology Public Trust Political Advocacy

Most university professors in the U.S. lean politically to the left, showing a big shift from past diversity in beliefs. This can limit students' exposure to different viewpoints.
The lack of political diversity among faculty may lead to a bias in research and teaching, which is bad for education. It can also prevent new ideas from being discussed and evaluated.
Many people believe universities have become too political, which affects public trust in these institutions. This growing gap between academia and the general public is concerning.

Counting Materials

814 implied HN points • 19 Feb 25

🔬 Science Environmental Science Resource Management Economic Policy

The use of materials in the U.S. has evolved significantly since 1970, with some materials seeing reduced demand while the economy grows. This shows that it's possible to become more efficient in using resources.
Many materials used today are sourced from other countries, meaning the U.S. is consuming but not producing everything. This raises questions about the sustainability of relying on foreign resources.
As global living standards rise, the demand for materials will increase. It's important to manage these materials wisely to minimize environmental impact while still supporting industrial growth.

Energy Realism and Climate Pragmatism at the Department of Energy

2100 implied HN points • 19 Nov 24

🌞 Climate & Environment Climate change Energy Policy Sustainability Environmental Science Public Policy

Chris Wright believes in energy realism, recognizing that climate change is real but not the only pressing issue we face. He argues we should address various global problems, not just focus on climate.
Wright supports practical solutions for climate change, like improving energy technology that is affordable and reliable. He thinks we need to balance climate goals with the benefits of fossil fuels.
The Department of Energy plays a key role in advancing energy science and policies. Wright's leadership could help promote effective energy strategies that might appeal to both environmental and economic concerns.

Fixing Universities

1413 implied HN points • 23 Dec 24

🚌 Education Higher education Policy Analysis Public Trust Academic Freedom

Universities need to focus more on their main jobs: teaching and research. It's important for them to prioritize these roles over sports and other activities.
They should take institutional neutrality seriously, meaning universities shouldn't push political views. Instead, they should let students and faculty discuss and debate these issues freely.
Expanding access to education for all kinds of students is crucial. Universities should aim to serve everyone in society and help improve American democracy.

Shrinking the Tent

1697 implied HN points • 21 Nov 24

🌞 Climate & Environment Climate Science Environmental Policy Activism Energy Pragmatism

Some climate activists are creating echo chambers on social media, blocking people they disagree with. This limits discussion about different views on climate issues.
There is a growing concern that climate activism is becoming too exclusive and not practical enough to be effective in real-world situations.
A focus on strict ideological purity is hurting the climate movement, making it harder to bring in new supporters and make meaningful progress.

How Science Must Change

1845 implied HN points • 08 Nov 24

🔬 Science Scientific research Public Trust Policy Implications Partisanship

Science should focus on serving everyone, regardless of their political beliefs. This means making science accessible and relatable to all citizens.
Many scientists in leadership are becoming too partisan, which creates a divide between science and the public. This partisanship can lead to mistrust and alienation among people with differing views.
To regain trust, the scientific community needs to foster inclusivity and understand the diverse perspectives of the public. This includes recognizing that scientists should work to serve the interests of all Americans.

Climate Journalism Done Right

1933 implied HN points • 24 Oct 24

🌞 Climate & Environment Climate change Environmental Policy Risk management Media Analysis

Billion-dollar disasters, like hurricanes, are becoming more common, but this may be more about increasing populations and property in storm-prone areas than just climate change.
The data used by NOAA to track these disasters was not originally intended to prove or analyze the impact of climate change, which raises questions about its relevance to climate policy.
Experts agree that while climate change is real, the way we categorize and understand disaster costs is heavily influenced by societal growth and the increasing value of assets in risky areas.

Global Existential Risks

1648 implied HN points • 13 Nov 24

🔬 Science Global Risks Climate change Artificial Intelligence Pandemics Nuclear Threats

The U.S. government identified six major risks that could threaten humanity, including artificial intelligence and nuclear war. These risks could lead to catastrophic events affecting civilization.
Climate change was found to be significant but not classified as an existential risk, meaning it won't likely cause human extinction. It's seen as a serious issue but not at the same level as other threats.
Experts warn that focusing too much on familiar risks may blind us to emerging threats, like pandemics or asteroid impacts, which could have severe consequences. We need to pay attention to a broader range of potential dangers.

Prediction is Very Difficult, Especially About the Future

1089 implied HN points • 26 Dec 24

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Predictions Government Policy International relations

Making predictions about the future is really hard and can be very humbling. It's often surprising how wrong we can be when looking back at our guesses.
Some predictions that rely on complex models don't always give us the best answers. Sometimes, simpler insights work better for making quick decisions.
Evaluating how well we did with our predictions can help us learn. It's important to look back and see where we were right or wrong to improve for next time.

Intellectual Hospitality and Genuine Debate

1383 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Debate Democracy Community Education Journalism

Intellectual hospitality means being open to ideas and suggestions from all sides. It's important to listen and consider different viewpoints to grow and make better decisions together.
Genuine debate is essential for democracy to work well. When everyone can talk and challenge each other's ideas, we can sift through opinions to find the truth.
Instead of trying to make everyone think the same, politics should help people with different views work together. This is how a diverse society can thrive and move forward.