The Honest Broker Newsletter

The Honest Broker Newsletter scrutinizes the interplay between science, policy, and politics, particularly in climate science. It challenges the integrity of peer review processes, the media's role in climate communication, the politicization of scientific publishing, and misinformation. It advocates for transparency, accurate data use for policy-making, and revisits global energy strategies.

Climate Science and Policy Media and Communication Scientific Integrity and Peer Review Energy Policy and Fossil Fuels Misinformation and Public Perception Scientific Publishing Politics Global Warming and Environmental Management Nuclear Energy as an Alternative COVID-19 Origins and Misinformation Role of Mathematics in Policy Research Influence of Apocalypticism on Climate Policy

The hottest Substack posts of The Honest Broker Newsletter

And their main takeaways

What a COVID-19 Food Fight Says About Scientific Discourse

1089 implied HN points • 18 Mar 24
🔬 Science Discourse Partisanship Debate Journalism COVID-19
  1. One strategy in science partisanship is to associate opponents with unpopular political figures to discredit their views without engaging with the substance.
  2. Another strategy is to argue that certain debates are harmful to scientific goals, leading to avoiding critique that might impact funding or research opportunities.
  3. Partisanship in science can also involve associating legitimate arguments with totally unacceptable views, like labeling individuals with terms that discredit their opinions.

Climate Policy Rethink

1236 implied HN points • 11 Mar 24
🌞 Climate & Environment Climate targets Equity Energy transition
  1. Climate policy targets and timetables need to be revisited as the Paris Agreement targets are infeasible, requiring a reassessment of what is realistically achievable.
  2. Global equity needs to be prioritized alongside emissions reductions in climate scenarios, as current projections indicate increased economic inequities.
  3. Scenarios guiding climate policy are biased towards coal energy expansion, highlighting the importance of refocusing efforts on transitioning away from coal for effective decarbonization.

The Unstoppable Momentum of Outdated Science: 2024 Update

2316 implied HN points • 19 Feb 24
🔬 Science Scientific Integrity Climate Science
  1. Climate research and policy are still heavily based on outdated and misleading scenarios like RCP8.5, which are causing a disconnect from reality and hindering progress.
  2. Studies in various fields can continue to gain momentum, even if they are based on flawed or outdated foundations, leading to a waste of resources and efforts.
  3. There is a pressing need for a significant reset in climate research to address the widespread usage of obsolete scenarios like RCP8.5, despite the acknowledged divergence from real-world data.

End the Week with THB

873 implied HN points • 15 Mar 24
💰 Finance Energy Electricity China Nuclear Renewable Energy
  1. Transmission line deployments in the US may not meet expected levels, urging a need for spreadsheet updates.
  2. Anticipate a significant rise in energy demand globally based on current trends.
  3. China's energy consumption growth demonstrates the country's significant stake in the global energy landscape.

Alternative Facts

1099 implied HN points • 08 Mar 24
🌞 Climate & Environment Climate change Media influence Extreme Weather
  1. Disasters are influenced by human exposure and vulnerability, not just the intensity of extreme events, making cause-effect links challenging to establish.
  2. Climate advocates have historically tried to connect extreme weather events to climate change, leaning towards sensational narratives even when not fully supported by scientific consensus.
  3. Media outlets have become more fragmented, leading to tailored content that aligns with specific audience values, potentially influencing the reporting of climate change issues.
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False Equivalence

2384 implied HN points • 09 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Climate Science Political Impact
  1. Renowned climate scientist Michael E. Mann won a defamation lawsuit against bloggers for over $1,000,000.
  2. The trial highlighted the defense arguing that Mann's methods were manipulative, the climate debate was intense, and Mann lacked evidence for reputation damage.
  3. The case focused more on politics and climate deniers versus climate science than on actual defamation, potentially impacting public criticism of science.

Is Global Climate Policy Working?

1158 implied HN points • 04 Mar 24
🔬 Science Climate Policy Economy Data Analysis
  1. Climate policies need a deeper focus on decarbonization of the global economy.
  2. The Kaya Identity offers a simplified yet powerful tool for evaluating climate policies.
  3. A shift towards measuring decarbonization progress rather than just emissions reduction can provide better insights into the effectiveness of climate policies.

Why I am Leaving Academia

2021 implied HN points • 14 Feb 24
🚌 Education
  1. The main reason for leaving academia is to pursue new opportunities.
  2. One of the motivations for leaving academia is to have more time for book-length projects, like writing three new books.
  3. Issues in academia, like student accessibility, misplaced priorities such as emphasis on football, and lack of support from administrators, are significant factors influencing the decision to leave.

Bonkers in Yonkers

1059 implied HN points • 06 Mar 24
🌞 Climate & Environment Climate Science Policy Regulation Sea Level Rise
  1. Climate policy should be based on the best-available science to be effective in addressing risks like sea level rise.
  2. Extreme, implausible scenarios like RCP8.5 can lead to misguided policy decisions and misallocation of resources.
  3. Regulatory capture by a small group of experts can result in the codification of flawed science in policies, highlighting the importance of oversight and accountability.

Climate Science Gatekeeping

2355 implied HN points • 22 Jan 24
🌞 Climate & Environment Climate Science
  1. New evidence reveals attempts to manipulate peer review in climate science.
  2. Famous climate scientist Michael Mann is implicated in efforts to influence publication.
  3. Transparency and integrity in the peer review process are highlighted as crucial.

The Politicization of Science Diplomacy

667 implied HN points • 29 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Global Health International relations Geopolitics Diplomacy
  1. Nations are considering a Pandemic Agreement to enhance preparedness and response to disease outbreaks, focusing on science advice for a new international science advisory committee.
  2. Implementing a new science advisory committee to oversee genetic research and supervision of pandemic potential pathogens across various settings is challenging due to current political and diplomatic hurdles.
  3. The politicization of science diplomacy poses risks like compromising scientific integrity, creating 'policy-based evidence,' and jeopardizing the independence of expert advisory mechanisms, showing the need for stronger institutions where science intersects with politics.

When the Climate Was Perfect

1854 implied HN points • 26 Dec 23
🌞 Climate & Environment Climate Impact Policy
  1. Global climate policies are now focused on global average surface temperature as an indicator of overall well-being
  2. The period of 1850-1900 is considered a baseline, but historical extremes highlight the fallacy of it being 'perfect'
  3. Climate history shows that the past had extreme climate events, emphasizing the importance of adaptive capacity

Weather and Climate Disasters in Europe

726 implied HN points • 12 Feb 24
🌞 Climate & Environment Data Analysis Trends
  1. Europe experiences significant economic losses due to weather and climate disasters, averaging about €15 billion annually.
  2. Storms and floods are the main causes of losses in Europe, with heatwaves also impacting the region.
  3. Data collection on disaster impacts in Europe is lacking, making it challenging to assess long-term trends in weather and climate-related losses.

Governing Risky Pandemic Research

549 implied HN points • 22 Feb 24
🔬 Science Research Regulation Risk Assessment
  1. Experts can disagree on the risks and benefits of proposed research, impacting research sustainability and public trust.
  2. There are concerns about regulating research with pathogens due to potential risks and lack of consensus on what is considered risky.
  3. Suggestions for governing risky research include demonstrating clear research benefits, identifying alternative methods, preregistering research, indemnifying organizations, and implementing global norms.

Against Mathiness

1364 implied HN points • 02 Jan 24
🔬 Science Research Policy Mathematics Politics Space
  1. Mathiness can allow for academic politics to masquerade as science.
  2. Good empirical research can eventually win out in truth battles, even if it takes time.
  3. It's possible to distinguish between good policy research and mathiness, despite potential professional benefits and political challenges.

Low Hanging Fruit

1511 implied HN points • 30 Nov 23
🌞 Climate & Environment Emissions Renewable Energy Policy Cost Analysis Nuclear power
  1. Replacing 150 coal power plants with nuclear power can reduce global emissions by 25% by 2035.
  2. The cost of replacing these plants with nuclear power is significantly lower than other emissions reduction measures.
  3. If the world is to achieve net-zero carbon emissions, retiring or retrofitting coal plants is necessary, and nuclear power provides a feasible alternative.

The Climate Fix Book Club, Chapter 9 & Full Book

274 implied HN points • 16 Feb 24
🌞 Climate & Environment Climate Policy Decarbonization Energy Efficiency Global Emissions
  1. Setting clear goals is crucial for progress, even if there are debates around the specifics. Policies should focus on addressing the root causes of issues, not just consequences.
  2. Decarbonization of the economy can happen through improving energy efficiency and transitioning to low-carbon energy sources. These are essential to meet atmospheric carbon dioxide targets.
  3. Efforts to reduce carbon emissions should consider the balance between economic growth and environmental impact. Decarbonizing energy supply is crucial for significant progress.

The Narrative Rules

1511 implied HN points • 06 Sep 23
🔬 Science Climate change
  1. When framing research findings, consider how to emphasize certain conclusions over others for press releases.
  2. Acknowledge and address the gap between climate change headlines and climate reality.
  3. Be mindful of how narrative rules can shape the presentation of research to increase publication chances in high-profile journals.

Climate Journalism is Broken

2139 implied HN points • 26 Jun 23
🌞 Climate & Environment Media bias Public Engagement
  1. Only about 9% of peer-reviewed papers on climate change in 2020 received any media coverage.
  2. The media disproportionately covers papers focused on global scales, end of the 21st century, natural sciences, and health.
  3. Climate reporting has shifted towards advocacy journalism, leading to biases and misinforming the public.

The Alimonti Addendum

1266 implied HN points • 26 Aug 23
🔬 Science Climate Science Peer Review Data Analysis Transparency
  1. A scientific paper was retracted due to negative press and criticism, not due to substantive issues.
  2. The retraction was driven by a single sentence in the paper, not related to data or analysis.
  3. Peer review process irregularities and external influences impacted the retraction, highlighting issues in scientific publishing.

What if We Just Stop Oil?

1737 implied HN points • 06 Jul 23
🔬 Science Energy Environment Activism Policy Climate
  1. The world still needs new sources of oil supply to meet demand, even with efforts to phase out oil consumption by 2050.
  2. Natural gas is expected to play a central role in future global energy consumption, with significant investment needed to meet demand.
  3. There are no scenarios suggesting it is possible to eliminate fossil fuel use within the next 8 years, leading to a global energy crisis if oil and gas were abruptly stopped.

Covidgate

1383 implied HN points • 02 Jul 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government Officials Research
  1. A small group of scientists and government officials tricked the public by promoting misinformation about the origins of Covid-19.
  2. The cover-up, known as Covidgate, aimed to shut down discussion of a possible lab leak as the cause of the pandemic.
  3. The Proximal Origins paper dismissed the possibility of a research-related origin of Covid-19, despite some of the authors initially believing in that hypothesis.