The hottest College Basketball Substack posts right now

The top four #1 seeds (UConn, South Carolina, Texas, and UCLA) dominate the title odds this year, accounting for about a 93% combined chance to win.
UConn is especially dominant and undefeated with a very high COOPER rating, so early-round upsets against them would require something to go very wrong.
Still, strong contenders like UCLA, Texas, South Carolina, and LSU could challenge in the later rounds, creating the potential for exciting matchups even if upsets remain unlikely.

Projections now use a new COOPER power rating blended 5/8 with Ken Pomeroy’s ratings, and the model runs 100,000 simulations to better handle injuries, travel, and how teams perform during the tournament.
Forecasts are updated once per day after games and include region-by-region chances, game win probabilities, point spreads, and a spreadsheet archive; the East region analysis is free while the rest is behind the paywall.
March Madness is still highly unpredictable — recent upsets (like Florida losing) have meaningfully shifted odds in regions such as the South, and the chance of a perfect bracket is basically zero (around 1 in 10 quintillion).

COOPER is a new power-rating system that ranks all 365 Division I men’s basketball teams using wins and losses, margin of victory, team tempo, preseason polls, and conference strength.
The ratings are Bayesian/Elo-like and update continuously: an impact factor weights recent games, close matchups, conference games, and NCAA tournament games more heavily, and ratings partly carry over between seasons.
COOPER offers detailed outputs (offensive/defensive ratings, strength of schedule, home-court factors), an objective-only variant, historical season-ending ratings back to 1950, and tools to convert ratings to win probabilities; tournament forecasts blend COOPER with other models and injury data and are available to subscribers.

COOPER is a new Bayesian college basketball rating system that combines margin-of-victory, opponent strength, pace, and preseason expert polls to produce offensive/defensive (PPPG/PPAG) and Elo-based ratings.
The model changes include separate offensive and defensive ratings, removal of the rule that winners must always gain points, game impact factors that weight close and high-stakes games more, and a time-varying k-factor that updates ratings more aggressively early in the season.
Tournament forecasts combine COOPER with Pomeroy/Her Hoop Stats (COOPER gets 5/8 weight), run conditional (“hot”) simulations that update ratings as simulated games occur, and explicitly model injuries probabilistically to adjust win probabilities.

Auburn's NCAA Tournament chances are still strong despite recent losses.
Consistent double-digit wins have boosted Auburn's ranking in various metrics.
Auburn needs to secure a Quadrant 1 victory to further solidify its tournament resume.

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Auburn faced familiar struggles in a road game against Mississippi State.
Defensive rebounding was a major concern for Auburn highlighted by second-chance points for the opponent.
Johni Broome performed well for Auburn, but the team needs more contributions from other players to succeed.

Brandon Miller's performance during the NCAA Tournament may affect his draft status.
NBA scouts are discussing 12 prospects who played in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 rounds.
To access more details on these prospects, subscription is required.

Caitlin Clark is not only a star on the basketball court but also making a significant impact off the court by driving media rights deals higher and elevating women's sports.
Caitlin Clark recently broke the NCAA women's all-time scoring record, showcasing her exceptional skills and dominance in the sport.
Clark's performance and charisma have drawn large audiences to women's basketball, solidifying her position as the biggest superstar in college basketball.

The media jumped to conclusions about the Brandon Miller story without having all the facts.
Both sides of the political spectrum rushed in with their own ideologies and calls for punishment.
As more details emerged, initial assumptions and beliefs about the story proved to be incomplete or inaccurate.