Silver Bulletin

Silver Bulletin provides a nuanced look at contemporary issues including political ideologies, election dynamics, free speech concerns, impact of technology on politics, and COVID-19 policy effects. It explores the complexities of social and political landscapes, often challenging binary narratives around liberalism, conservatism, and media biases.

Political Ideologies Election Analysis Media Analysis Free Speech COVID-19 Policies Technology and Politics Economic Perceptions Social Justice Statistical Analysis Gambling and Risk

The hottest Substack posts of Silver Bulletin

And their main takeaways

Elon Musk and spiky intelligence

705 implied HN points • 25 Feb 25

Spiky intelligence means someone can be really smart in some areas but not so great in others. Elon Musk, for example, shines in tech and entrepreneurship but may lack emotional intelligence.
Highly intelligent people, like Musk, often have strong ideas but can make poor decisions due to overconfidence or lack of well-rounded skills. It's crucial to evaluate their actions without either extreme praise or blame.
In industries like tech, people with spiky intelligence often succeed because they excel in specific skills, but may also come across as difficult or lacking in social awareness.

Why Trump killed congestion pricing

386 implied HN points • 20 Feb 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis Transportation Political Economy Urban planning Public Opinion

Congestion pricing in New York has made commuting faster for many people, saving them time despite the added fees. Some drivers find it worth paying extra to avoid long traffic delays.
Not everyone benefits equally from congestion pricing; it can be a burden for lower-income commuters who rely on personal vehicles. Still, it helps reduce traffic and pollution in the city.
The policy has mixed effects on local businesses. While it may deter some visitors, faster travel within the city could encourage local spending from commuters using public transit.

Silver Bulletin pollster ratings, 2025 update

373 implied HN points • 17 Feb 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling Elections Data Analysis Political trends Political Reporting

The latest pollster ratings show which pollsters are most accurate and transparent based on their past performances. This helps understand which ones might do well in future elections.
New data added to the ratings includes results from the 2024 presidential, congressional, and gubernatorial elections. Lots of new polls have shifted some ratings, but the top pollsters generally stayed the same.
They measure pollster accuracy using different ratings and scores that consider factors like bias toward political parties and how close their predictions were to actual results.

How did the polls do in 2024? It’s complicated.

312 implied HN points • 17 Feb 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling Elections Public Opinion Data Analysis Political Bias

Polls in 2024 had a lower average error than in previous years, which shows improvement in their accuracy. However, most polls underestimated Republican candidates, particularly Trump.
There was a consistent bias in polls, leaning towards Democrats over the past three elections. This trend is concerning as it suggests a systematic issue with polling methods.
Polling accuracy in calling election winners was lower in 2024 compared to past years. Close races should be seen as uncertain, and small leads in polls don't mean much.

My plan to fix the NBA All-Star game

249 implied HN points • 19 Feb 25

🎾 Sports Basketball Events Athletes Competitions Entertainment

The NBA All-Star Game has seen declining competitive play, with fewer fouls and lower stakes making it less exciting for fans.
A proposed 3-on-3 tournament features All-Stars lined up by their NBA teams to create chemistry and pride, potentially improving game intensity.
Changing the format to emphasize personal pride and fun might make the All-Star event more enjoyable and engaging for both players and fans.

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Democrats need a billionaire strategy

727 implied HN points • 09 Feb 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political strategy Democratic Party Election Dynamics

Democrats need a clear position on billionaires to rally voters. Mixing support and opposition won't convince people.
The party risks losing touch with its base if it continues to court wealthy donors. It should focus on grassroots support instead.
Being wishy-washy about billionaires and their influence can backfire. It's better to fully embrace or reject their support.

Job listing: Assistant Sports Analyst

30 implied HN points • 26 Feb 25

🎾 Sports Sports Analysis Job Listings Data Visualization Statistical Modeling Data Management

An Assistant Sports Analyst position is open, mostly focusing on improving sports models for NFL, NBA, and college basketball. It's part-time and could turn into full-time.
Candidates need skills in Stata, Python, and data analysis, along with a strong interest in sports. Pay ranges from $40-50 per hour, depending on work done.
To apply, email with your materials and be prepared for interviews in early April. The deadline to apply is March 25, 2024.

The game theory of Trump's tariff threats

978 implied HN points • 04 Feb 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy Game Theory Economics Diplomacy Political strategy

Trump's tariff threats focus on Canada and Mexico, two neighbors that depend heavily on the U.S. for trade. This puts the U.S. in a position of power, even if such threats can backfire.
The economics suggest that while tariffs might hurt all involved, Canada and Mexico would suffer significantly more than the U.S. This creates a dangerous imbalance in trade negotiations.
Trump's approach may work as a short-term tactic, but it risks future relations with Canada and Mexico, leading to resentment and potential retaliation if pressured too much.

Twitter or Bluesky? How about neither.

418 implied HN points • 13 Feb 25

🕹 Technology Social media Business Models Digital Platforms Online Influence User Behavior

Twitter has lost much of its influence compared to its heyday, now having less engagement and relevance in social media discussions. Many users are finding better alternatives for their online engagement.
Despite challenges, Twitter still holds some value for quick updates, memes, and keeping up with special interests. However, its growth seems stagnant, and it's not heading towards a broader 'everything app' vision.
The business model of platforms like Twitter faces inherent issues, as they struggle to balance being a platform and a publisher. This affects their profitability and long-term sustainability.

FINAL Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast

9424 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Forecasting Political Analysis Campaigns

In the final simulations for the election, Kamala Harris won slightly more than half of the time, but Donald Trump also had a strong chance, especially with potential ties in the Electoral College.
The modeling approach adjusts for different polling methods and emphasizes reliable polls, aiming to offer a clearer picture of who might win the election.
There’s still uncertainty in elections, and surprising outcomes can happen, so many factors could influence the final results.

Luka Doncic and the market for lemons

679 implied HN points • 02 Feb 25

🎾 Sports Basketball Athletes Trade Analysis Market

Luka Doncic being traded to the Lakers surprised everyone because such big trades are rare. Usually, it happens when teams are struggling or a player is unhappy.
Typically, there's a lot of drama leading up to a superstar trade, but Doncic's trade happened suddenly without warning signs.
People are questioning whether the Mavericks made a poor choice in trading Doncic without getting more in return, stirring curiosity about their decision-making.

Are we entering a Conservative Golden Age?

1202 implied HN points • 23 Jan 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political trends Voting Patterns Public Opinion Policy Analysis Cultural Shifts

A Conservative Golden Age might be emerging, as recent policies and leadership are leaning strongly to the right. This could mean significant changes in areas like immigration and social rights.
Public opinion often reacts against a government seen as too conservative or too liberal. If Trump’s policies are perceived as overreaching, it may lead to a shift back to more liberal governance in future elections.
Historically, American politics swings between conservative and liberal eras, influenced by major crises. This suggests uncertainty about whether we're starting a new conservative era or if the current situation is temporary.

It's time to come to grips with AI

922 implied HN points • 27 Jan 25

🕹 Technology AI Digital innovation Tech Policy Software Development Data Ethics

AI is becoming very powerful and it could change many things in society. We need to talk about its risks and benefits honestly.
The left is not fully engaging in discussions about AI, which is concerning as this technology is rapidly evolving. Everyone should be part of the conversation to shape its future.
Dismissing AI as overhyped is misguided; rather, we should explore its potential impacts and work together to ensure it benefits everyone.

Why Biden failed

1209 implied HN points • 20 Jan 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Public Opinion Presidential History Policy Issues

Biden faced huge challenges from the pandemic, his age, and a divided Democratic Party. These factors made it hard for him to keep his promises to the voters.
His approach to tackling multiple crises at once hurt his effectiveness. Instead of focusing on solving one problem, he tried to handle everything, which didn't work out well.
Despite being popular when he started, Biden's approval ratings dropped as various issues like inflation and crime grew. His age also became a concern for many voters.

113 predictions for Trump's second term

829 implied HN points • 26 Jan 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Policy Government Campaigns Society

The predictions aim to explore various possible outcomes of Trump's second term, from political events to global issues. It's like guessing how a story might unfold, mixing serious and bizarre scenarios.
The predictions are based on probabilities, meaning some events are more likely to happen than others. For example, predicting a Republican win in 2028 isn't just a simple yes or no; there's a chance it could happen.
There’s an emphasis on keeping track of unusual risks and looking at the bigger picture. These predictions could shape how we think about future political events and the changing landscape in the US.

SBSQ #17: How should you prepare for an AI future?

627 implied HN points • 31 Jan 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Analysis Political strategy Public Opinion Governance

To prepare for an AI-driven future, it's important to start using AI tools now. This will help boost your productivity and give you a better understanding of how AI can be applied in your work.
Stay informed about technology and finance news to understand the evolving job market. This knowledge can help you make smart investment decisions and navigate your career path more effectively.
Focus on developing a mix of skills that includes analytical thinking, domain knowledge, and personal skills. Being well-rounded in these areas can make you more valuable in a competitive job environment impacted by AI.

NBA Future of the Franchise Rankings

210 implied HN points • 08 Feb 25

🎾 Sports Basketball Franchises Trade Championships Analysis

Teams' future success in the NBA is heavily influenced by their current roster and ability to attract superstar talent. A team with young superstars has a better chance at winning more championships over time compared to one that has an aging roster.
The current standings of a team may not reflect their long-term potential. Teams like the Los Angeles Clippers and Phoenix Suns made big trades but now face challenges with roster depth and future draft assets, making it hard to build a championship-caliber team.
It's crucial for teams to prioritize championship potential over just being competitive. Teams that are stuck in the middle, like the Sacramento Kings and Chicago Bulls, are less likely to achieve success because they lack pathways to acquire star players and improve their chances of winning titles.

The rise and fall of "fact-checking"

824 implied HN points • 08 Jan 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Media Misinformation Fact-checking Political Bias Social media

Facebook is getting rid of fact-checkers because they were seen as biased. They will be replaced with a community notes system, letting users help decide what is true.
Fact-checking has always been part of journalism, but it became a separate role after the 2016 election. Many thought it was necessary to fight misinformation, but it also created trust issues.
There are concerns that community-driven fact-checking might not work well on a large platform like Facebook. The idea is that everyone should be checking facts, not just a few designated people.

The expert class is failing, and so is Biden’s presidency

2066 implied HN points • 02 Dec 24

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Governance Political parties Public Opinion Media

The expert class has struggled in recent years, failing to effectively manage significant events like wars, financial crises, and the pandemic. This has led to a loss of public trust in their judgment.
Biden's presidency is viewed as unsuccessful, partly due to his decisions like pardoning his son. Many see this as a sign of weakness and it could give Donald Trump more confidence to act similarly without facing backlash.
There is a growing connection between education and political power, with educated voters increasingly aligning with the Democratic Party. However, this has resulted in a disconnect with average voters, leading to political losses for Democrats.

Nobody goes to New York City anymore. It’s too crowded.

679 implied HN points • 23 Dec 24

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Crime Urban Issues Public Transit Safety

The subway in New York City is still very popular, even setting daily ride records after COVID-19. More people ride the subway daily than fly on the busiest days in the U.S.
While crime is a concern in cities, New York's violent crime rates are lower than often perceived. The actual number of violent incidents, especially in the subway, is quite low compared to the number of rides.
Many people are still using public transportation, despite some opting for cars or working from home. The subway remains the main way to get around the city, showing resilience and demand.

Kamala Harris was a replacement-level candidate

1376 implied HN points • 15 Nov 24

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Candidates Political strategy Campaigning Political Analysis

Kamala Harris was seen as an average candidate, which was not enough in a tough election year for Democrats. Instead of standing out, she blended in with the party, making it hard for voters to be excited about her.
Many believe that Biden's performance as president hurt Harris's campaign, as he focused on tough issues and overshadowed her messaging. This made it difficult for her to establish her own identity separate from him.
Harris struggled with her political stance, trying to appeal to both the left and the center. This confused voters and may have cost her support compared to other Democratic candidates who were clearer about their positions.

The story of Trump's win was foretold in New York City

1588 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political strategy Voter Demographics Party Dynamics

Trump's support is growing even in traditionally Democratic areas like New York City. His vote share has significantly increased compared to past elections.
The Democratic Party needs to understand why they lost and reassess their strategies. Many people are questioning what went wrong and looking for answers.
The mood after the election was calmer than in 2016, suggesting people are more prepared for surprises in politics now. This clarity might help the Democrats focus on better decisions moving forward.

A shocking Iowa poll means somebody is going to be wrong

1606 implied HN points • 03 Nov 24

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Political Analysis Voter trends

A new poll in Iowa shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump, which is surprising given recent trends favoring Trump. This could mean a shift in political dynamics in the state.
Pollster Ann Selzer is known for her accurate predictions, but this bold claim may not hold up given the statistical uncertainties involved. The margin of error could sway the actual results significantly.
Different polls are showing varying results, which highlights the uncertainty and complexity of polling in elections. Some polls are seen as more reliable than others, making it hard to know which to trust.

Don't mistake Democratic partisan orthodoxy for a "coherent" philosophy

764 implied HN points • 11 Dec 24

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Partisanship Political parties Political Ideologies Voter Behavior Election Dynamics

The Democratic Party is made up of different groups with conflicting ideas, making it hard to have a clear, unified philosophy. Loyalty to the party can sometimes overshadow genuine ideological beliefs.
Many voters have mixed political views that don’t fit neatly into one party, and that's often seen as confusing. However, their perspectives can actually make sense when you consider their desire for change.
Interest groups and party tactics can create contradictions within the Democratic Party. Sometimes, these groups want different things, leading to conflicts in party policies and priorities.

Save Daylight Savings Time

642 implied HN points • 17 Dec 24

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Governance Legislation Elections Public Opinion

Eliminating Daylight Savings Time would mean losing a lot of daylight in the summer for most Americans. People enjoy having more evening light, especially for outdoor activities.
Year-round standard time might make mornings darker, which can negatively affect people's routines and mood. This could make things tougher for kids going to school early.
While the idea of eliminating Daylight Savings Time seems to aim for efficiency, it could end up being very unpopular as it takes away something beneficial without offering enough advantages in return.

Always. Be. Blogging.

1057 implied HN points • 22 Nov 24

💼 Business Entrepreneurship Marketing Content creation Digital Media Subscription Models

Blog regularly to grow your audience. Consistent posting keeps your readers engaged and helps you establish a routine.
Make your content stand out with catchy headlines and good structure. A strong opening and good promotion can lead to more readers and subscribers.
Think about your unique insights and be ready to share them when relevant news happens. Timeliness and originality can help your writing hit home runs.

Silver Bulletin 2024 election night coverage

1380 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Political Analysis Voter Behavior Campaigns

It's important to keep track of election night numbers for candidates like Trump and Harris. Knowing the latest results helps us understand how the election is going.
You can join a chat during election night to discuss the results with others. It's a good way to share thoughts and hear different perspectives.
This information is aimed at paid subscribers, so it's exclusive content for those who support the publication. Being a paid member allows for access to more in-depth analysis.

There’s more herding in swing state polls than at a sheep farm in the Scottish Highlands

1434 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polls Elections Voting Public Opinion Campaigns

Many swing state polls show very close results, which seems suspicious. It's not normal for so many polls to match so closely in a tight race.
Some pollsters lean towards the common opinion instead of reporting their own findings. This tendency to 'herd' can lead to less accurate overall polling results.
Polling strategies may create pressure to avoid showing clear leads, causing inaccurate predictions. This can lead to surprises on election day, as true voter sentiment might not be reflected.

Hopium comes at a high price

1050 implied HN points • 19 Nov 24

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Political Analysis Democratic strategy

Polls showed mixed results, but overall, they were generally accurate in predicting the election outcome. This means people shouldn't overreact to polling numbers, no matter how close the elections get.
Many Democrats believed in a winning narrative that didn't match the polling data. This led to a false sense of security about their candidates' chances.
Voter concerns about issues like inflation, immigration, and candidate age were often ignored by Democratic leaders, which contributed to their electoral struggles. Listening to these concerns is important for future success.

Part I: Democrats' risk-aversion helped to re-elect Trump

761 implied HN points • 03 Dec 24

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Political strategy Political Analysis Democratic Party

Democrats were too afraid to take risks during the campaign, which may have helped Trump win again. They were in a tough position but didn't try bold strategies to change the outcome.
The campaign team didn't seem to understand the general public's feelings or what would attract voters. They focused too much on internal data instead of connecting with average people.
Many decisions made during the campaign failed to create excitement or clear messaging. The candidates didn't have a strong, unique vision, making it hard to draw support from undecided voters.

Our best and worst takes of 2024

386 implied HN points • 31 Dec 24

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Political Analysis Political Commentary

In 2024, a lot of focus was on the election, which made it hard to cover other topics. It's important to find a balance between major events and a wider range of issues.
Some predictions made during the year were spot-on, especially about political trends and voter behavior. This shows the importance of analyzing data carefully.
Not every post or opinion held up well over time. It's a good reminder that things change, and it's okay to revisit and reflect on past takes.

It's 2004 all over again

1093 implied HN points • 12 Nov 24

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political parties Electoral process Campaign Strategy Public Opinion

Democrats are feeling stronger about their chances after recent elections, similar to how they felt in 2004. They believe they can regain control and improve their strategy moving forward.
Trump, like Bush in his second term, may face challenges and unpopularity. Many voters who supported him might not be as forgiving now that he no longer has to run for elections.
The electoral playing field has become more balanced for Democrats. With fewer structural disadvantages, they are optimistic about competing for Senate and House seats in future elections.

Polling is becoming more of an art than a science

214 implied HN points • 16 Jan 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling Political trends Voter Behavior Data Analysis

Polling accuracy is becoming less predictable and more nuanced. Pollsters are feeling cautiously optimistic this time, although mistakes still happened in predicting election outcomes.
Pollsters are likely to stick with their current methods for 2026. Many have already adapted and believe the changes they've made are effective enough for now.
There is no single best way to conduct polls anymore. Different methods and tech are used by different polling organizations, which can lead to varied results.

Is it crazy to pay Juan Soto $765 million?

486 implied HN points • 14 Dec 24

🎾 Sports Contracts MLB Economics Athletes Franchises

The New York sports market is very big, and winning teams bring in a lot of money from fans. People in New York are willing to pay for tickets to see successful teams.
Juan Soto's huge contract of $765 million has raised eyebrows, but it's not just about the money—it's also about attracting fans and maintaining a competitive edge.
The Mets needed a star player to improve their popularity and attendance, especially when compared to the more successful Yankees. This contract might be a gamble, but it could pay off in the long run.

How the Indigo Blob runs a bluff

397 implied HN points • 20 Dec 24

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Media Government Public Policy Political Analysis

Biden's age-related decline is often hidden by the White House. Many around Washington know about it, but it's not openly discussed.
Media coverage has been inconsistent about Biden's age. While some outlets pointed it out, others downplayed or ignored the issue.
Claims of a conspiracy regarding Biden's ability seem to have some truth. There was effort to manage how his decline was presented to the public.

Who I’d pick for the Baseball Hall of Fame

186 implied HN points • 13 Jan 25

🎾 Sports Baseball Hall of Fame Athletes Performance Culture

Ichiro Suzuki is a top pick for the Baseball Hall of Fame and may get in unanimously. His hit record is impressive and he's respected for his contributions.
Recent Hall of Fame ballots include many international players, which shows baseball's growing diversity. This means that performance from players around the world is important.
When considering Hall of Fame candidates, both statistics and a player's character matter. Some great players, despite their achievements, face scrutiny over their behavior or past controversies.

SBSQ #15: Democrats have a "fool me twice" problem

642 implied HN points • 26 Nov 24

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting behavior Political theory Party Dynamics Campaign Strategy

Voters often feel betrayed when political parties don't keep their promises, which can lead them to punish those parties, even if they prefer their policies in the long run.
Democrats have faced a challenge where their messages seem abstract and hard to connect with, making it difficult for voters to feel excited or trust them.
Prediction markets and other indicators may make accurate calls about races, but there's a question of whether they are just lucky or truly insightful, reflecting the unpredictability of voter behavior.

The Hall of Fame is about more than WAR

232 implied HN points • 06 Jan 25

🎾 Sports Baseball Analytics Hall of Fame Player evaluation Statistics

The Hall of Fame should consider many factors, not just one statistic like Wins Above Replacement (WAR). This means looking at achievements, player talent, and character too.
Players might have high WAR scores but lack the greatness often associated with Hall of Fame status. For example, a consistent but average player shouldn't necessarily be in the Hall over a standout who had fewer career years.
Voters for the Hall of Fame are required to consider a player's overall impact, including postseason performances and fan appeal. This makes it a more complex decision than just focusing on statistics.

A random number generator determined the “favorite" in our forecast

905 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Polls Political Analysis Forecasting

The presidential race is extremely close, almost a 50/50 chance for each candidate. This makes it tough to predict who will win.
Recent simulations showed a slight edge for Kamala Harris, but overall results were very mixed, indicating a highly uncertain outcome.
Voting is crucial in this tight race; it really comes down to what people choose, making it more important than any guessing games.

Part II: The failed rebrand of Kamala Harris

499 implied HN points • 06 Dec 24

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Campaigns Election Strategy Branding Public Perception Media influence

Political campaigns today are a lot like branding campaigns. Successful candidates have strong, memorable brands that stick with voters.
Kamala Harris struggled to define her brand compared to other political figures. Inconsistent branding and messaging led to confusion about what she truly represents.
The quick rise and fall of trends like 'Brat Summer' show how fleeting political memes can be. While they can spark interest for a short time, they don't build lasting support.