Silver Bulletin

Silver Bulletin provides a nuanced look at contemporary issues including political ideologies, election dynamics, free speech concerns, impact of technology on politics, and COVID-19 policy effects. It explores the complexities of social and political landscapes, often challenging binary narratives around liberalism, conservatism, and media biases.

Political Ideologies Election Analysis Media Analysis Free Speech COVID-19 Policies Technology and Politics Economic Perceptions Social Justice Statistical Analysis Gambling and Risk

The hottest Substack posts of Silver Bulletin

And their main takeaways

Democrats are hemorrhaging support with voters of color

507 implied HN points • 15 Mar 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Data Political trends Partisan dynamics
  1. Democrats are losing support with voters of color, particularly among working-class and younger individuals.
  2. Polls and election results are showing significant declines in support for Democrats among Black, Hispanic, and Asian American voters.
  3. The shift towards progressive policies and generational turnover may be contributing to the decline in support for Democrats among voters of color.

It's time for the White House to put up or shut up

1000 implied HN points • 19 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election Presidency Media Interviews
  1. Biden's re-election prospects are diminishing due to poor approval ratings, trailing in polls, and concerns about his age.
  2. The White House may be strategically limiting Biden's public appearances to avoid negative outcomes and protect his image.
  3. Critics suggest Biden should engage in more challenging interviews to prove his mental sharpness and suitability for a second term.

2024 March Madness predictions

410 implied HN points • 18 Mar 24
🎾 Sports Tournament Predictions College Basketball Analysis
  1. The 2024 March Madness predictions suggest Connecticut is the favorite to repeat as champs, but with only a 23% chance. Other top contenders include Purdue, Arizona, and Houston.
  2. The model used for the predictions is based on a composite of power ratings with adjustments for injuries and travel distance. It also considers preseason rankings to enhance predictive accuracy.
  3. The East region is highlighted as a chalky region with potential for upsets in certain games, like the 7-10 upset pick. The winner from this region will face the winner from the livelier West region in the Final Four.

Why the political clock is ticking for TikTok

373 implied HN points • 08 Mar 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Bipartisanship Legislation Social media Political Behavior
  1. Politics is not always a zero-sum game, with some shared interests among legislators. Bipartisanship can arise when faced with common goals.
  2. TikTok is facing legislative challenges in the US due to concerns about its ties to China. There is strong bipartisan support for a bill that could force TikTok to divest from its Chinese parent company.
  3. The TikTok ban issue highlights the complex intersection of politics, misinformation concerns, and generational differences. The bill seems to be gaining momentum due to the lack of a clear political winner and the psychological effect of a common enemy.
Get a weekly roundup of the best Substack posts, by hacker news affinity:

Biden’s problem is with swing voters, not with his base

418 implied HN points • 02 Mar 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political strategy Voter Behavior Campaigning Partisanship
  1. Democrats should focus on swing voters rather than relying solely on turnout from their base for the 2024 election.
  2. The composition of the electorate has shifted, with Democrats losing their edge on party identification in many polls.
  3. Biden's challenge lies in retaining support from swing voters who are not necessarily loyal to the Democratic base for the upcoming election.

The White House is betting the election on a theory of skewed polls 🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩

308 implied HN points • 05 Mar 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polls Campaigns White House Media
  1. Democrats have historically not been trailing in presidential race polls until now, leading to a sense of confidence within their campaign officials.
  2. In the current presidential race, Joe Biden is behind in the polls against Trump, hinting at potential challenges ahead.
  3. The White House has shown signs of poll denialism, reacting negatively to polling data that does not align with their expectations.

Why liberalism and leftism are increasingly at odds

1339 implied HN points • 12 Dec 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Ideologies Political polarization Free speech Education
  1. Liberalism and leftism are at odds due to differences over Israel and identity politics.
  2. Classical liberalism, rooted in individual rights and free markets, is distinct from socialism and conservatism.
  3. Social Justice Leftism diverges from liberalism in its focus on group identity, totalizing tendencies, and constrained view on free speech.

Nikki Haley's problem is America's problem

290 implied HN points • 06 Mar 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election Conservatism Republican party Joe Biden Donald Trump
  1. Nikki Haley faced challenges in the Republican Party representing broader issues within America.
  2. Haley struggled to gain support from self-described conservative Republicans, highlighting divisions within the party.
  3. The dominance of Trump's strain of conservatism poses significant implications for the Republican Party and American democracy.

Officially announcing On The Edge, my new book

427 implied HN points • 08 Feb 24
📚 Literature Books Authors Genres Narratives Themes
  1. Nate Silver has officially announced his new book 'On The Edge' which delves into the world of gambling, risk, and decision-making, with a focus on the stories of risk-takers and successful gamblers.
  2. The book covers a wide array of topics including poker evolution, human aspects of poker, the commercial gambling industry, sports betting, venture capital, crypto, effective altruism, and the existential risks related to AI and nuclear weapons.
  3. Through in-depth interviews and research, 'On The Edge' offers a thought-provoking exploration of how different risk-takers think, revealing the interconnectedness of subjects like technology, economics, politics, and personal decision-making.

Biden isn't losing because of bad economic vibes

345 implied HN points • 12 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy Polling
  1. Biden's low approval ratings are not solely due to negative economic sentiments, but they could be influenced by consumer perceptions.
  2. There is a divergence in consumer confidence surveys which impacts how people view the economy and subsequently rate Biden's performance.
  3. Concerns about Biden's age and fitness for office are significant factors affecting voter perception, potentially more than economic factors.

Not everything is #ButHerEmails

347 implied HN points • 06 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Media Election Progressives Democracy
  1. Media coverage can have significant impacts in elections, such as the focus on Clinton's emails in 2016.
  2. Progressives are using the term #ButHerEmails to criticize media coverage that they feel is unfair to Democrats.
  3. The concept of The Big Cope suggests Democrats blaming media coverage for unfavorable election outcomes.

SBSQ #6: People are fleeing California and New York. Will that make other states bluer?

149 implied HN points • 29 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics
  1. People are leaving blue states like California and New York, with factors like lower cost of living and migration to warmer places contributing to the trend.
  2. Migration patterns do not necessarily make states receiving new residents bluer politically, as there are selection effects at play.
  3. Regarding the Super Bowl, it's argued that the 49ers should have kicked instead of taking the ball in overtime, showing the potential impact of strategic decisions in sports.

Free speech is in trouble

779 implied HN points • 02 Nov 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Youth Liberalism Conservatism Free speech College
  1. Free speech is facing challenges, especially among young liberals who show low tolerance for controversial speech.
  2. College students have varying levels of tolerance for controversial speakers, with notable differences between conservative and liberal viewpoints.
  3. The decline in support for free speech is not limited to elite universities, indicating a broader generational shift.

The 5 types of people who argue on the Internet [SBSQ #5]

169 implied HN points • 31 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Controversies Misinformation
  1. People argue on the internet for various reasons, with different levels of precision and competitiveness.
  2. When making political contributions, it's more effective to donate to downballot candidates, causes, or effective charities, rather than major-party presidential or high-profile races.
  3. Controversies about platforms like Substack raise concerns about the spread of misinformation and the importance of critical thinking among the public.

Fine, I'll run a regression analysis. But it won't make you happy.

679 implied HN points • 01 Oct 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics COVID-19 Statistics Vaccination Debate Partisanship
  1. State partisanship and COVID vaccination rates strongly predict COVID death rates even after considering age.
  2. Simplicity in statistical analysis can help in avoiding overfitting models and focusing on robust, true facts.
  3. Vaccination rates are more predictive of COVID death rates than state partisanship once age is controlled for.

160 million Americans are eligible to be president. How did we end up with these two dudes again?

358 implied HN points • 06 Nov 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Candidates Polling Demographics
  1. 160 million Americans are eligible to be president, yet we have the same candidates running again.
  2. Trump and Biden are not very popular, with polls showing significant differences when matched against unnamed candidates.
  3. Younger voters seem less interested in Biden, especially due to concerns about his age.

Will the New York Times ever quit Twitter?

325 implied HN points • 05 Oct 23
🕹 Technology Social media Tech Giants Digital Publishing
  1. Nate Silver discusses mixed feelings about Twitter's impact on democracy and tribalism.
  2. Twitter's latest changes, like removing headlines from external link previews, raise questions about its future utility.
  3. The potential consequences if the New York Times, with its high editorial standards, decides to quit Twitter and influence other publishers to follow suit.

Twitter, Elon and the Indigo Blob

510 implied HN points • 31 Jul 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Media Partisanship Twitter Public Discourse
  1. The line between expertise and politics in American media has blurred during the Trump Era.
  2. The Indigo Blob encompasses various institutions and leans left due to its size and demographics.
  3. Twitter has been a key platform for the Indigo Blob, reflecting left-leaning views and contributing to a skewed perception of political preferences.

Are these hopeless Republican candidates ever going to quit?

217 implied HN points • 27 Oct 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election Primary Trump
  1. Some hopeless Republican candidates are likely to drop out in the next six weeks, while others may stay longer due to various factors like momentum and media attention.
  2. Anti-Trump Republicans may need to rally behind a single challenger to have a chance, as Trump currently has a strong lead in head-to-head matchups.
  3. Candidates like DeSantis and Haley may be the best options to challenge Trump, but even their chances seem slim based on current polling data.

SBSQ #3: Forget the polls — has Joe Biden been a good president?

147 implied HN points • 30 Nov 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Election Gambling Presidency Cities
  1. Nate Silver believes Joe Biden has been a good president based on bills passed and handling of certain issues.
  2. Nate Silver shares his 7 favorite American cities, including Chicago, Los Angeles, and Miami.
  3. Nate Silver discusses the betting odds for the US Presidential election and whether it's a good bet to buy GOP for the popular vote.

Of course Biden's age is a legitimate voter concern

308 implied HN points • 04 Sep 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election Presidency Candidates Aging Health
  1. A large percentage of American adults believe Biden is too old to be effective for another four years.
  2. There is a significant age gap between Biden and Trump, which may impact their health and cognitive abilities in a second term.
  3. Voters are concerned about the age and health of presidential candidates, with notable implications for the upcoming election.