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Our Liquidity Addiction Continues

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 21 implied HN points • 09 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Currencies
  1. The Fed has begun a modest, ongoing balance-sheet expansion—buying short-dated Treasuries to keep banks flush with reserves and control short-term rates—which is a "gradual print" that should be mildly supportive for asset prices and mildly dollar-negative.
  2. Severe shocks like a recession, a large-scale financial or kinetic conflict, or sudden foreign sell-offs could force much larger, faster Fed purchases measured in the trillions, while a change in Fed leadership might try to shrink the balance sheet but would only have limited, mostly technical effects.
  3. Japan’s rising bond yields are a real risk but not an immediate systemic collapse: the BOJ owns a large share of the debt and Japan has big FX reserves and a current-account surplus, so policymakers have tools (yield-curve control, reserve sales) to manage it; investors should favor high-quality, scarce assets and rebalance away from overheated areas.

The Dollar's Death In 2026 Is Now A Mainstream Talking Point

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 49 implied HN points • 31 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Currencies
  1. The US dollar’s global dominance is eroding as countries and blocs build alternative settlement systems and settle more trade in local currencies, making the dollar increasingly optional.
  2. US fiscal and monetary policy choices plus the weaponization of dollar-based finance are pushing other nations to de-dollarize, and the US Treasury market shows structural fragility that often needs central bank support in stress.
  3. Market signals—rising gold and silver, growth of RMB-linked and commodity-backed stablecoins, and wider mainstream coverage—suggest a steady loss of confidence in the dollar rather than a sudden collapse, with major shifts likely ahead.

This is not what I normally do here…

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 12 Mar 24
đź’° Finance Currencies
  1. Focus on empirical observations and data, rather than theoretical predictions, but sometimes theories need to be explored too.
  2. Countries with higher inflation rates tend to see their currencies depreciate over time, while carry tend to work in the short term with interest rate differentials.
  3. Aside from interest rates, fiscal policy can start to influence exchange rates, especially when countries aggressively reduce their deficits. This could potentially lead to a stronger Euro and Sterling against a weaker US Dollar.

Data Update 3 for 2021: Currencies, Commodities, Collectibles and Cryptos

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 28 Jan 21
đź’° Finance Currencies
  1. Investments can be classified into four main types: assets, commodities, currencies, and collectibles. Each type has its own characteristics that affect how they are priced and valued.
  2. Investing is about buying assets based on their value, while trading focuses on buying low and selling high without worrying about value. They are different approaches but both can lead to profit.
  3. During economic crises, different markets behave unpredictably, often moving together. This can make diversification harder, meaning spreading investments across various assets may not always reduce risk.
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