The hottest Empirical Research Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Technology Topics

Stop Trying to Ban Teens from the Internet

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 486 implied HN points • 09 Dec 25
đź•ą Technology Empirical Research
  1. Policymakers are treating teen internet use like a crisis without strong evidence, relying more on panic than solid logic. Banning teens outright ignores the complexity of costs and benefits.
  2. Research finds some negative effects from screen time, but the measured harms are modest and often blown up by headlines. Small average effects don’t automatically justify sweeping bans.
  3. Blanket bans are a blunt, likely counterproductive tool and better replaced by targeted, evidence-based policies. Thoughtful interventions can address harms while preserving social and developmental benefits.

A loan offer you can’t refuse

Klement on Investing • 5 implied HN points • 20 Feb 26
đź’Ľ Business Empirical Research
  1. When a company is downgraded to junk, bank loan availability falls sharply — about a 10% drop in the year after and roughly 30% cumulatively over five years.
  2. That sudden loss of bank financing pushes distressed CEOs and CFOs to seek alternatives, and the chance of mafia infiltration rises by roughly 5% after a downgrade.
  3. Financial distress is a key catalyst for organized‑crime infiltration because banks pull back when firms need money most, leaving a financing gap crime groups can exploit.

Fortune tellers

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 13 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Empirical Research
  1. Chinese investors often use superstitions like horoscopes when making investment decisions, showing a cultural difference from the West.
  2. A lab experiment found positive Chinese fortune-telling reports raised willingness to invest by over 20 percentage points, and Chinese horoscopes influenced choices more than Western ones.
  3. Worryingly, venture capital managers were even more swayed than individual investors, so these beliefs can meaningfully affect market behavior.

Congressional leaders are magnificent investors

Klement on Investing • 4 implied HN points • 06 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Empirical Research
  1. Most people want stricter limits on members of Congress trading stocks, because current rules are weak — trades over $1,000 must be reported within 30 days and the penalty for missing a report is only $200.
  2. Research usually finds Congress members underperform the market, but a new study shows party leaders earn materially higher returns, with performance improving after they become leaders.
  3. The leaders' outperformance isn’t proven illegal, but the timing and pattern are circumstantial and raise serious concerns about conflicts of interest and access to privileged information.

The Counterfactual's poll #3

The Counterfactual • 59 implied HN points • 04 Apr 24
đź•ą Technology Empirical Research
  1. In April, readers can vote on research topics for the next article, making it a collaborative effort. This way, subscribers influence the content that gets created.
  2. Past topics have focused on empirical studies involving large language models and the readability of texts. This shows a trend toward practical investigations in the field.
  3. One of the proposed topics is about how language models might respond differently based on the month, which can lead to fun and insightful experiments.
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