The hottest Equity Analysis Substack posts right now

A great, durable company isn't guaranteed to deliver high returns if you buy it at an only-average price.
Actual EPS growth turned out far lower than expected — roughly 2–3% per year instead of the hoped-for high single digits — and that weak growth hurt performance.
Small near-term underperformance can compound into a much larger long-term shortfall, so valuation and growth assumptions matter for long-horizon results.

Start building an investing checklist early and update it as your approach evolves so it becomes a reliable repository of your process and decision rules.
Learn and practice forecasting skills by studying what makes superforecasters better than average and by making clear, probabilistic predictions to sharpen judgment.
Share your answers in a single comment and engage with others' responses to learn through feedback and community discussion.

True mispricings tend to come from special situations caused by forced selling or neglect, like spin-offs, post-bankruptcy stocks, or sidelined divisions. These situations often let patient investors buy assets the market is overlooking.
Popular, hyped stocks—including hot-sector names, IPOs, and momentum-driven picks—are more driven by sentiment than fundamentals and are less likely to offer reliable bargains. They often create FOMO and poor entry points for long-term investors.
Stick to your circle of competence and hunt for neglected or forced-sale opportunities, using careful research and tools such as long-dated options to capture asymmetric upside with limited downside. Sharing ideas and learning from others can help you find and refine these opportunities.

Investors must evolve their methods over time, moving beyond old bargain-only strategies to favor durable, high-quality businesses while still insisting on a clear margin of safety.
Temperament matters: patience and the willingness to wait for the right opportunities are as important to long-term returns as intelligence, process, or experience.
The seminar assigns reading The New Money Masters and practical work: map investors’ styles, pick your favorite and least favorite with reasons, create an AI prompt based on an investor, and share all answers in a single comment while engaging respectfully with others.

John Neff’s large-cap value approach focused on stable, predictable businesses bought at low P/E ratios, yielding a high batting average, modest winners, small losses, and roughly a 3% annual edge over decades.
This week’s assignment centers on Anthony Bolton’s Investing Against the Tide, with specific questions to map his investment style, link it to his background, and evaluate his best and worst picks.
The seminar is designed to be interactive and practical: participants are asked to submit a single comment with answers, engage with others, and use extra resources like the 10‑Minute Investment Autopsy and the next reading to keep improving.

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When comparing stock prices, it's better to use price multiples like PE or EV to EBITDA instead of looking at share prices alone. Share prices can be misleading and don't tell the whole story.
Different regions and sectors have their own pricing trends, which means some stocks may be cheap in one market but overvalued in another. Always check the broader picture before investing.
Don’t blindly rely on common rules for finding cheap stocks. It's important to understand the reasons behind a stock's price rather than just focusing on numbers.

Amateur valuation models can cost you money when investing. It's better to rely on proven methods instead.
ValuationBot is an AI tool that helps you find out if a stock is undervalued or overpriced, making investing easier.
Using ValuationBot can help you build a better portfolio and potentially beat the market. Early users can get a discount.

Risk premiums for equities have decreased significantly since the peak during the market crisis, returning to pre-crisis levels. This means investors are demanding less extra return for holding riskier stocks now compared to late 2008.
Bond default spreads, which widened dramatically during the crisis, have also fallen back to where they were before, indicating a recovery in confidence in bond markets.
Emerging markets faced severe challenges during the crisis, but by early 2010, their sovereign default spreads dropped back to pre-crisis levels, suggesting improved market stability and investor sentiment.