The hottest Predictive Modeling Substack posts right now

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Does the UK’s liver transplant matching algorithm systematically exclude younger patients?

AI Snake Oil • 864 implied HN points • 11 Nov 24
🏥 Health Politics Medical Ethics Healthcare policy Predictive Modeling
  1. The liver transplant matching algorithm in the UK might favor older patients over younger ones, which raises serious ethical concerns. This can lead to younger patients, even if they are very sick, being overlooked for transplants.
  2. Using predictive algorithms in healthcare can be risky. They can have biases that might not be obvious, like wrongly estimating how long patients will live after a transplant based on a five-year cap.
  3. It's important for the public to have a voice in how medical algorithms are created and used. Better understanding and participation can help ensure fair and just treatment for all patients.

Week #1: Getting Started With Conformal Prediction For Classification

Mindful Modeler • 1018 implied HN points • 20 Dec 22
🕹 Technology Machine Learning Data Analysis Predictive Modeling Python AI
  1. Model predictions should consider uncertainty to make informed decisions. Decisions relying only on point predictions can be risky.
  2. Conformal prediction is a method that can provide rigorous uncertainty scores, giving probabilistic guarantees of covering the true outcome.
  3. Conformal prediction is simple to apply, often with just 3 lines of code. It is model-agnostic, distribution-free, and comes with coverage guarantees.

What A Horse Can Tell Us About Machine Learning

Mindful Modeler • 279 implied HN points • 10 Oct 23
🕹 Technology Machine Learning Artificial Intelligence Data Analysis Predictive Modeling
  1. Animals like horses and machines can appear clever by relying on cues and shortcuts, rather than true understanding.
  2. When designing or evaluating machine learning models, watch out for 'Clever Hans Predictors' that rely on spurious correlations.
  3. To spot potential Clever Hans Predictors, look for unexpectedly good model performance, apply causal thinking, examine data closely, and use interpretation methods to investigate model behavior.

E-Mail Course On Conformal Prediction

Mindful Modeler • 479 implied HN points • 13 Dec 22
🚌 Education Predictive Modeling Data science Machine Learning Research
  1. Conformal prediction turns point predictions into prediction sets with a probability guarantee of covering the true outcome, working for any model without requiring a distribution assumption.
  2. The 5-week email course on conformal prediction offers a free, convenient way to learn about this uncertainty quantification method.
  3. Resources like Valeriy's list on conformal prediction and an academic introduction paper can be helpful for diving into and understanding conformal prediction.

Forecasting the College Enrollment Gender Gap

Data Taboo • 20 implied HN points • 26 Jul 23
🚌 Education Gender gap Predictive Modeling Societal Impact
  1. Male college enrollment has been declining relative to females, with significant historic changes in gender ratio.
  2. Learning outcomes like SAT scores and GPA are not driving the changing college enrollment gap.
  3. Changes in admission criteria, such as emphasizing GPA over standardized tests, have impacted male acceptance rates and enrollment.
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Data Science Weekly - Issue 274

Data Science Weekly Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 21 Feb 19
🕹 Technology Data science Machine Learning Artificial Intelligence Predictive Modeling Neural Networks
  1. The visual search engine project for Hayneedle shows how search can be enhanced by using images instead of words. This could make finding products easier for customers.
  2. Mathematicians are starting to understand how the design of neural networks affects their capabilities. This can help in optimizing their use for various tasks.
  3. Knowing your data thoroughly is crucial for anyone working in data science. It's essential to understand where the data comes from and what it represents.

Using LLMs For Autonomous Vehicles

Cobus Greyling on LLMs, NLU, NLP, chatbots & voicebots • 0 implied HN points • 23 Apr 24
🕹 Technology AI Autonomous Vehicles Machine Learning Data science Predictive Modeling
  1. Large Language Models (LLMs) can help autonomous vehicles predict if other cars will change lanes and explain those predictions clearly.
  2. It's important for these predictions to be quick, ideally under 500 milliseconds, so cars can respond fast in traffic.
  3. Integrating LLMs can improve trust in self-driving cars by making their decision-making process clearer and easier to understand.