The hottest Risk management Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Finance Topics

Black, blue and white swans: Comments on Taleb

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 13 Oct 08
đź’° Finance Risk management
  1. It's important to realize that real-life data often doesn’t follow normal patterns and can have unexpected jumps and surprises.
  2. While it's essential to be aware of unpredictable events (black swans), we shouldn't stop planning or forecasting our future.
  3. We should use our best judgment to value assets, keeping in mind that shocks can occur, and we need to account for these risks.

Diversification: Why is it not working?

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 08 Oct 08
đź’° Finance Risk management
  1. Diversification is important for investors, but its benefits have decreased recently. Investors now see more risks across different markets than before.
  2. The connection between different stock markets has increased, meaning that a crisis in one area can affect many others. This makes diversification less effective.
  3. Real estate risks have become more linked to the stock market because of how properties are now invested in. So spreading money across asset classes offers less protection than it used to.

Is it time to make the move?

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 07 Oct 08
đź’° Finance Risk management
  1. The market drop was influenced more by worries about the economy rather than just fear, showing a different sense of urgency than previous weeks.
  2. The equity risk premium in US stocks is higher than usual, suggesting either a big change in the markets or that stocks are undervalued.
  3. When looking for investments, focus on stable companies with essential products, strong earnings, low debt, and reasonable prices.

Mark to Market or Not to Mark to Market?

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 01 Oct 08
đź’° Finance Risk management
  1. Marking to market helps investors see the current value of assets, but it can be hard for accountants to keep up with everything they need to estimate.
  2. Fair value can mean different things depending on how you look at it, making it tricky to have a clear agreement on what it actually is.
  3. The rules for marking assets vary by type, leading to inconsistencies where some assets are more strictly valued than others, like securities versus loans.

II. Why did it happen?

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 28 Sep 08
đź’° Finance Risk management
  1. People often become overly optimistic when times are good, which can lead to financial bubbles. There's a pattern throughout history of underestimating risk when things are going well.
  2. The problem with risk in financial markets is that those who take the risks often don't bear the consequences. This creates a disconnect that needs to be addressed.
  3. To improve the system, we should change how financial rewards are structured. Bonuses should be based on long-term performance, not just short bursts of profit.
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The end of investment banking?

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 22 Sep 08
đź’° Finance Risk management
  1. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are changing how they operate by becoming bank holding companies. This means they will now accept deposits and can access more long-term capital.
  2. The old way of investment banking had problems, especially with risky trading and high bonuses for profits but little penalty for losses. This led to serious financial issues for many firms.
  3. With new regulations as bank holding companies, these firms will have to hold more equity and may see lower profit margins. It's a shift to a more cautious investment strategy.

Are you a contrarian?

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 22 Sep 08
đź’° Finance Risk management
  1. Being a contrarian investor means going against what everyone else is doing, especially in tough times. It’s easier to say you’re a contrarian than to actually act like one when the market is falling.
  2. Deciding to invest when the market is down takes a cool head and confidence. Most people usually panic or hesitate instead of taking action.
  3. You can't force yourself to be a certain type of investor if it doesn’t suit your personality. Some people are not built to stay calm and think long term during market chaos.

What is the risk free rate?

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 20 Sep 08
đź’° Finance Risk management
  1. The risk free rate is important for calculating risk premiums in finance. It acts like a foundation for understanding the potential returns on investments.
  2. Traditionally, the U.S. Treasury rates were seen as risk free because they were assumed to be free from default. This means that investors thought the U.S. government would always pay back its debts.
  3. Recently, there have been signs that this assumption may need to change. A rise in the cost of insuring against U.S. Treasury defaults suggests that investors are now more concerned about the risk of default.

Selling Short: The debate

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 19 Sep 08
đź’° Finance Risk management
  1. Short selling helps reflect all kinds of news in the market, both good and bad, so it should be allowed.
  2. Banning short selling can push the practice underground, making it harder to track and potentially worsening the situation for companies.
  3. Investors, whether they are short sellers or long buyers, should be held accountable for manipulating stock prices.

Risk = Danger + Opportunity

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 17 Sep 08
đź’° Finance Risk management
  1. Risk includes both danger and opportunity. It’s important to see how they work together.
  2. In good times, everyone focuses on opportunities, ignoring the risks involved.
  3. In bad times, it’s easy to only see the dangers, but paying attention might reveal new opportunities.

A primer on insurance

Entraigues • 0 implied HN points • 28 Jan 21
đź’° Finance Risk management
  1. Insurance helps protect you from big financial losses by pooling risks with others. If something goes wrong, like a house fire, the costs are shared so it doesn't fall on just one person.
  2. When you buy insurance, you're trading a small, certain cost (the premium) for coverage against a potentially huge loss. This is a smart move if losing that big amount would be too hard to handle.
  3. Insurance companies need to manage risks well. They have to collect enough money from premiums to cover claims and expenses, but they also invest this money to help grow their profits over time.

A guide to AI model collapse

Handy AI • 0 implied HN points • 23 Oct 24
đź•ą Technology Risk management
  1. Model collapse happens when AI systems are trained too much on data created by other AIs, leading to poor quality and less reliable results. It's like a game of telephone where messages get muddled with each round.
  2. This model collapse can cause serious issues, like businesses making bad decisions based on inaccurate information and AI tools spreading misinformation. Imagine a world where forecasts and customer help get much worse.
  3. To prevent model collapse, researchers suggest careful curation of data, using better methods to train models, and keeping humans involved in checking data quality. It's important to ensure AIs are learning from the best inputs.

Quantum Threat Modelling

QV’s Substack • 0 implied HN points • 04 Jun 24
đź•ą Technology Risk management
  1. Quantum technology has many parts that are classical and can be vulnerable to traditional cyber attacks. This means threats can come from many angles that don't specifically target the quantum aspects.
  2. There are unique threats related to quantum systems that are not yet fully explored, and many existing vulnerabilities are not linked to specific vendors. This makes it hard to gauge how secure quantum technologies truly are.
  3. Understanding the context in which quantum systems operate is really important. Different setups, like using space-based technology versus fiber optics, come with very different security challenges.

Poker, appendage sensory & game theories

The Strategy Toolkit • 0 implied HN points • 21 Oct 24
đź’Ľ Business Risk management
  1. Understanding poker can help improve decision-making in life. Like in poker, you can use probabilities to assess risks and make smarter choices.
  2. Learning key poker concepts like pot odds and bluffing can enhance your strategy skills. These ideas apply not just to cards but to many situations we face.
  3. Successful people think strategically and take calculated risks. Adopting a mindset similar to a poker player can help you navigate challenges better.

Hedging hedge funds have higher (h)returns

Klement on Investing • 0 implied HN points • 12 Nov 24
đź’° Finance Risk management
  1. Hedge funds can actually reduce their risks internally, which helps them perform better. They don't just rely on external factors.
  2. Most hedge funds have realized risks that are lower than expected, known as a negative risk gap. This can boost their overall returns.
  3. Funds that manage their risks well tend to have higher performance, while those that take on more risks often do worse.

Quant Letter: November 2024, Week-3

The Parlour • 0 implied HN points • 20 Nov 24
đź’° Finance Risk management
  1. Vulnerability Conditional Risk Measures help assess risk during financial crises. They focus on understanding tail risks in the market.
  2. Research on heavy-tailed risks can show how certain extreme events might develop. It looks into the behavior of sums of risk factors.
  3. New studies in finance are slowly changing how we understand and measure risk. Keeping up with these developments can improve investment strategies.

On Managing Risk in Software Projects

Anant’s Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 19 Jun 24
đź•ą Technology Risk management
  1. Understand user needs clearly to avoid creating features that don't solve problems; involve users early in testing to catch issues.
  2. Ensure all teams understand their roles and dependencies to prevent surprises; clarify API contracts and dependencies early on.
  3. Plan integration and testing carefully; start integrating early and create detailed testing plans to ensure everything works before launch.

Future of Lending: Navigating Risk Management in Loan Against Securities (LAS)

Decentralised • 0 implied HN points • 20 Aug 24
đź’° Finance Risk management
  1. Loan Against Securities (LAS) is gaining popularity as many people are using their investment assets as collateral for loans. This option offers flexibility and lower interest rates compared to personal loans.
  2. Effective risk management is crucial for LAS since the value of collateral can change rapidly. Lenders need to monitor collateral closely and use technology to manage these risks effectively.
  3. Financial institutions are increasingly integrating digital solutions to streamline LAS processes. This not only makes managing loans easier but also enhances the ability to respond quickly to market changes.

Quant Letter: December 2024, Week-1

The Parlour • 0 implied HN points • 04 Dec 24
đź’° Finance Risk management
  1. A new method for valuing private data is proposed, aiming to enhance current data market systems.
  2. The study introduces risk models using tree structures to better manage interconnected risks within a portfolio.
  3. These advancements could lead to improvements in how data is acquired and utilized in finance.

[VYX] Checking Out in 2025? (Part 1)

Nongaap Investing • 0 implied HN points • 23 Dec 24
đź’° Finance Risk management
  1. It's important to think about the reasons behind certain actions and decisions that might happen in 2025. Understanding motivations can help in making better choices.
  2. Activism might play a key role in shaping the direction of events. People speaking up can influence outcomes and bring about change.
  3. Exploring various strategies now can prepare us for what to expect in the future. Having options can make it easier to deal with challenges later on.

Decision Theory Concepts Useful in Life

Kartick’s Blog • 0 implied HN points • 10 Feb 25
đź’Ľ Business Risk management
  1. Exploration and exploitation are both important for success. You need to try new things to find better tools, but also focus on mastering the ones that work for you.
  2. Simplifying problems makes decision-making easier. Break down big questions into smaller, manageable ones to gain clarity and avoid getting overwhelmed.
  3. It's crucial to recognize opportunity costs in decision-making. When you commit to one option, you may be giving up on others that could be more beneficial.

Adaptive Defense: Redefining Security for a Dynamic World

Phoenix Substack • 0 implied HN points • 20 Feb 25
đź•ą Technology Risk management
  1. Static security is outdated. We need systems that can adapt quickly to changing threats.
  2. Trust in security should be flexible. Instead of seeing things as secure or vulnerable, we should continuously assess and improve our defenses.
  3. Effective security must understand each situation. It's about using real-time information to respond appropriately, not applying the same rules everywhere.

Are Your AI Policies Still “PDF”? Really?

OSS.fund Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 05 Jun 25
đź•ą Technology Risk management
  1. AI policies should be more than just documents; they need to be coded directly into the systems. This helps ensure that rules are automatically enforced and reduce the risks of mistakes.
  2. Ignoring policy-as-code can lead to serious issues, like compliance breakdowns and financial losses. Simple coding changes can prevent big problems before they happen.
  3. Integrating policies into the development process makes AI governance a part of daily operations, helping companies to adapt quickly and use AI effectively without getting bogged down by regulations.

Issue #9 - Board, Are You Ready for AI Unknowns?

OSS.fund Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 14 May 25
đź’Ľ Business Risk management
  1. AI governance is becoming a critical focus for boards due to rising data, legal pressures, and new regulations. Companies now need to track their AI progress with scorecards every quarter.
  2. Boards are looking at five key performance indicators (KPIs) to measure AI effectiveness. These include adoption rates, financial performance, and risk management.
  3. There's a growing need for collaboration among different departments in companies. No single team should handle AI oversight alone; a cross-functional approach is key to successful AI governance.

Equity investors seeking clarity should be careful what they wish for

Klement on Investing • 0 implied HN points • 23 Jun 25
đź’° Finance Risk management
  1. Financial markets don't like uncertainty, but getting clear answers might not help investors feel better. Sometimes clarity can bring new worries.
  2. Investors need to understand different types of uncertainties and which ones are most important for their decisions.
  3. It's important to think carefully about what finding 'clarity' means, as it can lead to unexpected consequences in investing.

Summary of "Balancing Acts: Safe Withdrawal Rates in the Indian Context"

Kartick’s Blog • 0 implied HN points • 25 Jun 25
đź’° Finance Risk management
  1. When planning retirement withdrawals, it's crucial to find a safe rate to ensure you don’t run out of money. A study suggests a rate of around 2.8% for a retirement period of 35 years.
  2. A balanced investment approach is important. Including about 10% in gold can help reduce the risk of running out of funds during retirement.
  3. Real returns, defined as returns after inflation, matter a lot. It's important to consider inflation when calculating withdrawal amounts to maintain your lifestyle.

15 Issues In: What 1000 Enterprise AI Readers Taught Me

OSS.fund Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 03 Jul 25
đź’Ľ Business Risk management
  1. To succeed with enterprise AI, focus on managing human change and understanding security needs. People often struggle more with adopting new tools than the technology itself.
  2. Feedback shows that financial discussions and ROI measurement are crucial for AI projects. This means you need to keep those conversations at the executive level to get support.
  3. Choosing the right platform for sharing insights matters. Moving to Substack was about cutting through the noise and connecting with the right audience more effectively.

Quant Letter: July 2025, Week-3

The Parlour • 0 implied HN points • 17 Jul 25
đź’° Finance Risk management
  1. A new method for calculating Greeks in finance has been introduced, which makes it faster and keeps accuracy high. This will help in managing options better.
  2. There is a new model-free approach for selecting portfolios that uses generative diffusion models and policy gradients. It could change how people manage their investments.
  3. This week’s content represents the 100th edition, highlighting a milestone in sharing insights on machine learning in finance. It shows the growth and importance of this field.

Quant Letter: July 2025, Week-1

The Parlour • 0 implied HN points • 03 Jul 25
đź’° Finance Risk management
  1. Deep learning can help improve portfolio risk management by using neural networks, making it safer for investors.
  2. Large machine learning models might be too sensitive when predicting stock prices, so it's important to be careful with them.
  3. Staying updated with the latest finance research can give valuable insights into market strategies.

Quant Letter: August 2025, Week-3

The Parlour • 0 implied HN points • 20 Aug 25
đź’° Finance Risk management
  1. The article talks about using multi-agent AI systems for stock selection and portfolio management. This approach has its own benefits and challenges.
  2. There are new ways to measure risk when you don't have complete information. These methods can help in understanding uncertainties better.
  3. Machine learning is becoming more important in finance, helping to improve analysis and decision-making processes.

Quant Letter: August 2025, Week-1

The Parlour • 0 implied HN points • 07 Aug 25
đź’° Finance Risk management
  1. Market makers can influence prices using smart financial models, allowing them to adopt winning strategies. This means that how they operate shapes the market itself.
  2. There's a new math model that looks at complex positions like they're options, helping to understand risks and potential losses better.
  3. The latest research in finance is exploring innovative approaches to market making and risk management, showing a shift towards more analytical methods.

[2025–2026] Week 7: Benjamin Graham’s Security Analysis, Part 7

Behavioral Value Investor • 0 implied HN points • 14 Nov 25
đź’° Finance Risk management
  1. Don't assume a stock is a good deal just because it's below book value. You need to do more research to understand its real worth today.
  2. Graham's ideas are about more than just numbers; you should also think about the quality of the business and its future potential.
  3. Comparing companies can be helpful, but be careful—there are limitations and factors that can skew your understanding of their true value.

Quant Letter: December 2025, Week-1

The Parlour • 0 implied HN points • 04 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Risk management
  1. Open-source satellite imagery can be used to create a global census of residential buildings to better measure climate risk and its impacts on housing and financial stability.
  2. Recent quantitative research is applying remote sensing and data-driven techniques to map built environments and inform climate and risk modeling.
  3. Full articles and curated analyses are often behind a subscription paywall, but short free trials can give temporary access to the full archives.

Credit where It's Due: An Interview with Boaz Weinstein

The Octavian Report • 0 implied HN points • 23 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Risk management
  1. Volatility is at historic lows because lots of investors are selling volatility, which suppresses price swings now but makes the market fragile and likely to see a much bigger spike if a breakout happens.
  2. Credit and equity markets can diverge for months, so companies whose stocks have collapsed sometimes still have debt trading high, creating both hidden risk and capital‑structure arbitrage opportunities.
  3. Discounted closed‑end funds and niche strategies like capital‑structure and volatility arbitrage look especially attractive right now, since active managers can earn yield and profit from mispricings that most institutions overlook.

Moments of Market Stress: What They Reveal Heading into 2026

Coin Metrics' State of the Network • 0 implied HN points • 30 Dec 25
đź”® Crypto Risk management
  1. Stress events in 2025 — from memecoin frenzies to exchange hacks and minting errors — tested blockchains and markets but mostly revealed resilience, with networks processing transactions and venues absorbing shocks without cascading failure.
  2. Operational and interface failures (like signer workflows and a centralized minting account) caused some of the largest incidents, showing that UI, process controls, and organizational risk management matter as much as cryptographic security.
  3. Fragmented liquidity and venue-specific mechanics amplified liquidations and led to localized stablecoin dislocations, underscoring the need for aggregated liquidity views and stronger cross‑venue risk tools.

Quant Letter: December 2025, Week-3

The Parlour • 0 implied HN points • 19 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Risk management
  1. A walk‑forward validation method for algorithmic trading focuses on interpretability and robust testing, aiming for modest gains while strongly protecting against big losses.
  2. A model‑free static framework for pricing fixed‑income instruments offers an alternative to traditional model-based pricing approaches.
  3. A curated summary of recent arXiv finance papers is provided, with a free preview available and full access offered via paid subscription.

Avoiding 10 Years of Market Stagnation

Jay's Data Stream • 0 implied HN points • 14 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Risk management
  1. The market looks expensive and history shows high valuations often lead to mediocre returns over the next decade, so future long-term gains may be limited.
  2. There’s no one right move for everyone — the best choice depends on your age, income, risk tolerance, and how much loss you can emotionally and financially handle.
  3. Instead of trying to time the market, focus on resilience: diversify new savings into bonds, international stocks, or gold, and make sure you could survive drawing from investments during a long downturn.

"It Will Change the Way You Think About Planning for Your Future."

The Snap Forward • 0 implied HN points • 09 Feb 26
🌞 Climate & Environment Risk management
  1. We are entering a new era of rapid, systemic climate-driven instability that makes old planning tools unreliable.
  2. You need to take personal responsibility by building a personal climate strategy and ruggedizing your life, because governments and institutions may not provide adequate protection.
  3. A structured, step-by-step workshop can teach practical foresight tools, help you make clearer decisions, and give you a personalized roadmap and peer support for navigating this chaos.

We thought we had time.

The Snap Forward • 0 implied HN points • 03 Feb 26
🌞 Climate & Environment Risk management
  1. We’re in a new era of instability where climate disruption is amplified by economic, technological, geopolitical, and institutional upheavals, and the old planning tools from more stable times no longer work.
  2. Help from governments, markets, or activists is unlikely to arrive fast enough, so individuals need to take responsibility and design their own practical plans for navigating the chaos.
  3. A live, small-group Personal Climate Strategy Workshop can teach the systems patterns behind the chaos and help you turn that understanding into concrete, actionable decisions, with recorded sessions and ongoing alumni support.

Things fall apart; the maintenance schedule cannot hold.

The Snap Forward • 0 implied HN points • 29 Jan 26
🌞 Climate & Environment Risk management
  1. Assuming continuity is dangerous — climate change is creating accelerating discontinuities and tipping points, so the past is a poor guide for the future.
  2. Climate brittleness will raise maintenance needs: everyday infrastructure and systems will face accumulating small stresses that cascade into bigger failures.
  3. Societies must either work harder to keep things running, abandon places that are too costly to sustain, or invest in ruggedizing systems, and limited resources mean these choices and risks will be unevenly distributed.