The hottest Risk management Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

How security teams fail

lcamtuf’s thing • 8774 implied HN points • 12 Feb 25
🕹 Technology Information Security Cybersecurity Risk management Organizational Structure Corporate Governance
  1. Many companies don't prioritize hiring security teams until after a major security incident happens. This means their first security personnel often lack experience to build strong security programs.
  2. Over time, security teams can become rigid and focused on their own tasks rather than aligning with broader business goals. This may lead to them missing urgent risks.
  3. When a major breach occurs, it can finally highlight the weaknesses in security strategies. This often leads to a change in team structure and a chance to improve communication within the company.

Stocks I'm Watching As The Market Sells Off

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 18 implied HN points • 28 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Risk management Economic Analysis
  1. The stock market has recently seen a drop, and many analysts still insist it's always a good time to buy, regardless of prices. This seems unrealistic, especially when many factors suggest selling might be a better option.
  2. Big companies like Apple and Amazon significantly influence the stock market, while retail investors are often trading options instead of actual stocks. This creates a speculative environment where many aren't looking for real value.
  3. Despite market challenges, there are still opportunities to find valuable investments that aren't being highlighted in mainstream financial media. It's important to look for these hidden gems amid all the noise.

Why Is Homeowners Insurance Getting So Expensive?

Construction Physics • 35493 implied HN points • 23 Jan 25
💰 Finance Insurance Economics Real Estate Risk management Climate Impact Homeownership
  1. Homeowners insurance costs have risen a lot over the past years, with a 33% average increase between 2020 and 2023. This has made it tough for many to afford insurance, leading some to rely on state-backed options.
  2. While rising construction costs and home sizes explain part of the increase, climate change and more frequent severe weather events are likely major factors driving up insurance prices further.
  3. Interestingly, even though some types of damage have become less frequent, the cost to repair them has increased, particularly for wind, hail, and water damage, which contribute significantly to higher insurance losses.

Investment Portfolio Strategies - A Beginner's Guide (Part 1)

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 379 implied HN points • 26 Sep 24
💰 Finance Investment Strategies Risk management Portfolio Management Financial planning Market Analysis
  1. Having an investment strategy is important because it helps you reach your financial goals. It guides your decisions based on your goals, how much risk you're comfortable with, and your future needs.
  2. Different investment strategies exist, like the 60/40 portfolio which mixes stocks and bonds, or the All Weather portfolio which is built for various economic conditions. Each has its pros and cons depending on your investment style.
  3. Before investing, ask yourself key questions about your savings, future expenses, and how much risk you can handle. This will help you create a strategy that fits your personal financial situation.

The o1 System Card Is Not About o1

Don't Worry About the Vase • 2732 implied HN points • 13 Dec 24
🕹 Technology AI Models Machine Learning Model Evaluation Risk management
  1. The o1 System Card does not accurately reflect the true capabilities of the o1 model, leading to confusion about its performance and safety. It's important for companies to communicate clearly about what their products can really do.
  2. There were significant failures in testing and evaluating the o1 model before its release, raising concerns about safety and effectiveness based on inaccurate data. Models need thorough checks to ensure they meet safety standards before being shared with the public.
  3. Many results from evaluations were based on older versions of the model, which means we don't have good information about the current version's abilities. This underlines the need for regular updates and assessments to understand the capabilities of AI models.
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Friday Macro Sitch Watching: The Grit from the Sandstorm Is Fierce!

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 207 implied HN points • 06 Jun 25
💰 Finance Macroeconomics Investment Economic Policy Market Trends Risk management
  1. In uncertain times, it's wise to be cautious and build safety instead of taking big risks. Waiting and watching can help us avoid bad decisions when the future is unclear.
  2. The economy is facing challenges like stagflation, which means slow growth and high prices. It's hard to tell if we're headed for a recession or if things will get better soon.
  3. Some people still have hope for a positive change, similar to past economic recoveries. They believe that chaos could lead to new growth opportunities, but there's a lot of uncertainty about what will happen next.

Cybersecurity's Delusion Problem

Resilient Cyber • 419 implied HN points • 29 Aug 24
🕹 Technology Cybersecurity Market Dynamics Data Privacy Risk management
  1. Cybersecurity isn't the only focus in business. Companies care about many things, like revenue and customer satisfaction, not just security.
  2. There's often not enough pressure on businesses to take security seriously. Sometimes it's cheaper for them to deal with breaches than to invest in security.
  3. Many cybersecurity talks happen in their own bubble, not considering the larger business world. For real progress, they need to speak the language that businesses understand.

The confidential YouTube Investment Memo by Sequoia you were never meant to see

The VC Corner • 519 implied HN points • 21 Aug 24
💼 Business Venture Capital Investment strategy Risk management Entrepreneurship Market Analysis
  1. Sequoia Capital's investment memo shows how they viewed YouTube as a potential leader in user-generated video. They spotted emerging trends like cheaper video equipment and better internet access that would help YouTube grow.
  2. The memo highlights the importance of a clear, simple investment thesis. The way Roelof Botha presented his ideas was straightforward and confident, making it easier for others to understand his vision.
  3. By analyzing both risks and opportunities, the memo provides a valuable lesson in balanced investing. Recognizing what could go wrong while staying focused on the potential for success is key in venture capital.

Quant Letter: June 2025, Week-3

The Parlour • 21 implied HN points • 19 Jun 25
💰 Finance Quantitative Investing Market Analysis Risk management Trading Strategies
  1. A new forecasting method called Bayesian VAR can predict complex time series data accurately by handling multiple variables and irregular data.
  2. Research on electricity markets reveals how hedging can be connected to market power abuse, which helps understand the economic behaviors in these markets.
  3. Recent studies show how machine learning and quantum methods are being applied to optimize trading strategies and predict market fluctuations.

DeFi Education Q&A (July 2024 pt. 2)

DeFi Education • 679 implied HN points • 10 Aug 24
🔮 Crypto DeFi Market Trends Investing Portfolio Management Risk management
  1. The DeFi market is currently facing some challenges, so it's important to be cautious and reduce high-risk investments like leverage.
  2. After a market dip, there might be good buying opportunities soon after, but it's wise to approach these with a short-term mindset.
  3. Staying updated on market trends and being part of a community can help you navigate through the ups and downs of investing.

When looking at private investments, the past is prologue

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 24 Jun 25
💰 Finance Investing Private Equity Valuation Market Analysis Risk management
  1. Private investments seem safer because they offer smooth returns, but their true risks might be hidden. Investors need to be careful and look beyond the surface when evaluating these assets.
  2. The way private equity funds show their investment valuations can be misleading. If they only show positive changes and hide the bad news, it can trick investors about how healthy the investments really are.
  3. Small changes in investment valuations can signal much bigger problems later on. Investors should pay attention to valuation updates to predict possible losses in the future.

Secret Diary of a Hedge Fund Allocator

Net Interest • 13 implied HN points • 13 Jun 25
💰 Finance Investing Hedge Funds Market Analysis Risk management Capital allocation
  1. Hedge funds offer a way for individual investors to access top managers and diversify their investments, but they often come with extra fees that can eat into returns.
  2. The Brevan Howard fund stands out for its ability to manage risk and provide steady returns, even in tough market conditions, making it a reliable choice for investors.
  3. Investing in hedge funds can be a rollercoaster ride with ups and downs, so it's important to learn from both your successes and failures when picking managers.

The Platform Risk

Tiny Empires • 49 implied HN points • 29 May 25
💼 Business Entrepreneurship Marketing Strategy Risk management Digital Media
  1. Don't rely too much on platforms you don't own because they can change rules suddenly. Build your own website and email list to keep control.
  2. Create a safety net by spreading your revenue across different platforms. This way, if one platform changes, your business won't fall apart.
  3. Always stay in touch with your audience through multiple channels. This keeps you connected, even if some platforms go away.

Managing Expand Projects

Software Design: Tidy First? • 1193 implied HN points • 02 Jan 25
💼 Business Project management Software Development Risk management Growth Strategies
  1. In a phase of rapid growth, problems can emerge suddenly, and it's crucial to focus on quick fixes instead of getting bogged down in perfect plans. This might mean using basic solutions to keep things running.
  2. When facing high demand and limited resources, the goal is to delay or prevent resource shortages. This can involve spending more money or reducing the growth rate to manage resources better.
  3. It's important to stay calm and creative during crises. Experimenting with new ideas in small, parallel teams can help find solutions quickly, which is necessary to continue growing without causing irreversible problems.

Climate Journalism Done Right

The Honest Broker Newsletter • 1933 implied HN points • 24 Oct 24
🌞 Climate & Environment Climate change Environmental Policy Risk management Media Analysis
  1. Billion-dollar disasters, like hurricanes, are becoming more common, but this may be more about increasing populations and property in storm-prone areas than just climate change.
  2. The data used by NOAA to track these disasters was not originally intended to prove or analyze the impact of climate change, which raises questions about its relevance to climate policy.
  3. Experts agree that while climate change is real, the way we categorize and understand disaster costs is heavily influenced by societal growth and the increasing value of assets in risky areas.

TBM 325: Skeptoptimism – Thinking Slow, Acting Fast

The Beautiful Mess • 952 implied HN points • 01 Dec 24
💼 Business Team Dynamics Planning Execution Leadership Risk management
  1. Thinking slowly helps in planning well and reducing risks. It's not sitting idle; it's about being active and experimenting with ideas.
  2. Being a skeptoptimist means balancing a belief in teams with a realistic view of challenges. It's important to express confidence in the team's ability to succeed while addressing risks.
  3. It's key to involve others in 'slow thinking' to ensure they understand and support the process. Sharing your thoughts can help bridge the gap between deep exploration and action.

Four minutes

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 19 Jun 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Consumer behavior Portfolio Management Risk management
  1. Many retail investors focus on just a few stocks, creating a big risk in their portfolios. This makes their investments less diversified and potentially more risky.
  2. Research shows that retail investors often spend very little time figuring out which stocks to buy or sell. On average, they only spend about 20 minutes looking into a stock before making a decision.
  3. The most common research method for these investors is to check short-term price movements rather than doing deep analysis. This can lead to making decisions based on trends instead of solid information.

Why Insurance Companies Are Rationally Failing Their Social Purpose

Software Design: Tidy First? • 1391 implied HN points • 25 Oct 24
💼 Business Insurance Finance Economics Investing Risk management
  1. Insurance is meant to convert risks into opportunities, allowing people to buy homes and start businesses by protecting lenders against losses. But it's complicated when companies only want to insure low-risk customers.
  2. Insurance companies often cut back on the risks they cover to stay competitive and offer lower prices, which means they might not support those in need, like entrepreneurs with health issues.
  3. For insurance to work as it should, companies need to stop focusing solely on low-risk clients. They should start covering real people, including those who are a bit riskier, to provide the societal benefits that insurance was originally designed for.

The Bear Cave #261

The Bear Cave • 396 implied HN points • 16 Feb 25
💼 Business Finance Investing Corporate Governance Market Analysis Risk management
  1. There's been some concern about AppLovin, a mobile app company. A researcher claims they are using a scheme that makes it look like users are rewarded for in-app purchases, which might not be genuine.
  2. Multiple company executives have recently resigned, including CEOs and CFOs from several firms. This shows instability in some companies and could affect their future performance.
  3. Some activists are raising issues about well-known companies, like Coca-Cola, and their social policies. This highlights ongoing debates around corporate responsibility and public perception.

Big Risks: Catastrophic Risk in Investing and Business

Musings on Markets • 1139 implied HN points • 17 Feb 24
💼 Business Risk management Investment strategy Valuation Methods Market behavior Financial Analysis
  1. Catastrophic risks can come from many sources like natural disasters, hacks, or changes in laws. They can seriously threaten a business's survival and impact its value.
  2. It's crucial for business owners to understand how these risks affect their financial situation. They can either be insurable or uninsurable, and knowing this helps in making better decisions.
  3. People often react emotionally to risks, sometimes ignoring them until it's too late. Understanding these reactions can help in making smarter investments and preparing for the worst.

Dealing with a big loser (business brew appearance / companion post)

Yet Another Value Blog • 1159 implied HN points • 02 Feb 24
💰 Finance Investing Portfolio Management Risk management
  1. Investing is a psychological game - need confidence to swing hard at good ideas.
  2. Having a big loser can shake confidence but it's important to avoid going "on tilt" and getting overly aggressive.
  3. To deal with big losses, reflect on decisions made, re-evaluate portfolio positions with a clear mind, and seek insights from others.

Market Cap vs. Equal Weighted Index Funds - Explained

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 239 implied HN points • 20 Jun 24
💰 Finance Investing Index funds Market Analysis Risk management Portfolio strategy
  1. Market-cap weighted index funds invest more in larger companies, which can mean more stability but also more risk if those big companies do poorly.
  2. Equal-weighted index funds treat all companies the same, offering more diversification and potential for growth, but they can be more volatile and expensive to manage.
  3. Choosing between these two types of funds depends on your comfort with risk, your investment goals, and how you think the market will perform in the future.

❄️🏢 Acheter un immeuble de rapport : tout ce qu’il faut savoir

Snowball • 1100 implied HN points • 22 Jan 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Investing Property Management Financial planning Risk management
  1. Buying an income-building property requires thorough preparation and attention to details before making the purchase.
  2. Investing in buildings with multiple rented units can offer advantages like lower price per square meter, increased yield, and centralized management.
  3. When visiting potential properties, it's crucial to ask the right questions to sellers, observe key elements on-site, and gather essential documents for further evaluation.

Ethena: Fundamentally Flawed?

DeFi Education • 819 implied HN points • 21 Feb 24
🔮 Crypto Decentralized Finance Stablecoins Ethereum Trading Strategies Risk management
  1. Ethena aims to provide attractive yields through a unique trading strategy that combines staking ETH and selling futures contracts. This could help users earn money while managing risk.
  2. There are concerns about Ethena's design, including the fact that it relies on staked ETH, which carries more risks. If things go wrong, users might face significant losses.
  3. While Ethena might seem like a good option now, it's important for investors to be cautious and understand the risks involved, as past attempts in this area have often failed.

Data Exfiltration from Slack AI via indirect prompt injection

PromptArmor Blog • 604 HN points • 20 Aug 24
🕹 Technology Cybersecurity Artificial Intelligence Data Privacy Software Development Risk management
  1. There is a serious vulnerability in Slack AI that lets attackers access confidential information from private channels without needing direct access. This means sensitive data can be stolen just by manipulating how Slack AI processes requests.
  2. The risk increases with the recent Slack update that allows AI to access files shared within the platform. This could mean that harmful files uploaded by users can also be exploited to extract confidential information.
  3. Both data theft and phishing attacks can happen through crafted messages in public channels. This makes it crucial for users to be careful about what they share, because attackers can trick the AI into sharing sensitive details.

The Year-End Money Market Storm

Concoda • 464 implied HN points • 19 Dec 24
💰 Finance Market Trends Investment Strategies Monetary Policy Financial Instruments Risk management
  1. Demand for funding is very high right now, causing banks to struggle. This could lead to big changes in money markets by the end of the year.
  2. Many traders are looking for ways to finance their stock trades, leading to more activity in repo markets. This means borrowing money using stocks as collateral is becoming common.
  3. There's a big challenge with U.S. government debt right now. The banks need to buy up a lot of unwanted debt at a time when borrowing money is getting tougher.

Interest Rate Risks are Collapsing Banks

The Informationist • 1650 implied HN points • 30 Apr 23
💰 Finance Banking Interest Rates Risk management Financial Crisis Investments
  1. Interest rate risks can lead to bank collapses due to mismanagement and lack of oversight
  2. Different types of interest rate risks affect banks' financial positions, such as repricing risk and basis risk
  3. It is important for individuals to be cautious with their bank deposits and consider diversifying investments based on personal risk tolerance and long-term goals

Top Links 618 America's mounting insurance crisis. US record homelessness. Beijing's Himalayan mega dam & who killed Jazz?

Chartbook • 300 implied HN points • 14 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Insurance Homelessness Disaster Public Policy Risk management
  1. America is facing a serious insurance crisis, especially in areas that are prone to disasters.
  2. More people are experiencing homelessness in the US than ever before.
  3. China is constructing a massive dam in the Himalayas, raising concerns and questions about its impact.

Casting doubt on risk preferences

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 17 Jun 25
💰 Finance Investing Risk management Behavioral Finance Economic Theory
  1. A recent study shows that how we measure risk preferences might not be accurate. People might choose safer options because they find complex math hard, not just because they're afraid of taking risks.
  2. Participants in the study reacted similarly whether faced with risky choices or complex ones. This raises doubts about whether traditional risk assessments truly reflect someone's risk tolerance.
  3. The results suggest that some risk assessments might actually measure how much people dislike complicated decisions instead of their real risk attitudes. We need to rethink how we evaluate risk preferences.

Navigating AI Risks with ATLAS

Resilient Cyber • 19 implied HN points • 04 Sep 24
🕹 Technology AI safety Cybersecurity Risk management Data Protection Machine Learning
  1. MITRE's ATLAS helps organizations understand the risks associated with AI and machine learning systems. It provides a detailed look at what attackers might do and how to counteract those strategies.
  2. The ATLAS framework includes various tactics and techniques that cover the entire lifecycle of an attack, from reconnaissance to execution and beyond. This helps businesses prepare better defenses against potential threats.
  3. Using tools like ATLAS and its companion resources can help secure AI adoption and development by highlighting vulnerabilities and suggesting mitigations to reduce risks.

The Everything Bubble Suddenly Feels Unstable

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 29 implied HN points • 15 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Economic Policy Central Banking Risk management
  1. Investors might need to prepare for tougher conditions in the market. It seems like the Federal Reserve might not be there to support them like before.
  2. The era of easily accessible money may be changing. Investors who relied on quick fixes might find it harder to bounce back from crises.
  3. It's important for investors to rethink their strategies. They may need to adapt to a new reality where traditional safety nets aren't guaranteed.

A small progress

Thái | Hacker | Kỹ sư tin tặc • 818 implied HN points • 22 Dec 23
🕹 Technology Cybersecurity Fintech Digital Transformation Government Risk management
  1. The Vietnamese Government is focusing on enhancing cybersecurity in the banking and cashless payment sectors to prevent system intrusions and theft from bank accounts.
  2. Foreign hackers have previously stolen significant amounts of money from domestic banks in Vietnam, prompting authorities to take action.
  3. Efforts by organizations like Calif, led by the author, aim to reduce vulnerabilities in critical national systems and contribute to enhancing security measures in Vietnam.